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June 8th , 2023 Political Note #566 Jim Costa California 22
2024 General Election
Jim Costa is another Democrat the DCCC does not include on its vulnerable list – Frontline Members to use their euphemism. According to my simple-minded calculation, he is the Democrats 14th most vulnerable incumbent. He won in 2022 by 10,501 votes – not a large number at all. The percentage margin was not so small – 54.8 to 45.2. This was an extremely low turnout. Total votes were 102,399. 2020 was a presidential year. More people voted – 216, 729. His margin was 3-2. Even that is not a large number.
Katie Porter in CA 47 had a tough contest. 259,628 people voted. If she were running for reelection in 2024 (She’s not; she is running for the US Senate), she would be the 11th most vulnerable Democrat – a victor by 9,113 votes. Her margin was 51.6 – 48.4. In the Presidential year of 2020, CA 47 saw a lot of voters turn out – 414,939 of them.
Democrats can be satisfied with a victory when 100,000 people vote. It is scary to me. A change in the tone in the campaign can ramp up the votes. It could even ramp up the votes on only one side. I like it better when a lot of people vote. An average Congressional district has 760,000 people.
Because of the demographics, we can’t expect 400,000 voters in California’s 21st Congressional District. If we can approach 200,000 in non-presidential years and exceed that number substantially in presidential years, then democracy is working better. Let the Republicans live in fear that democracy may work. We should do what we can to achieve bigger turnouts.
It is possible that Jim Costa would not want the DCCC to consider him a vulnerable incumbent. Part of his strength is to create the impression that he is invulnerable. Jim Costa was first elected to Congress in 2004. His grandparents immigrated from the Azores around the turn of the 20th century. They were farmers. Jim Costa’s parents were famers. So was Jim Costa.
The Costa family was ensconced in and around Fresno. After graduating from a local Catholic high school, he went to Fresno State and graduated in 1974. His degree was in political science and he did not farm for long. He got a job as a special assistant to a Congressman and then as the Administrative Assistant to an Assemblyman. In 1978, he was elected to the state Assembly. In 1994, he was elected to the State Senate.
In California state politics, he sponsored a bill that prohibited rent control on single family homes and in apartment building constructed in the future. On other issues, he was liberal – supporting abortion rights, for instance.
Jim Costa was first elected to Congress in 2004. He was supported by most Democratic leaders, but the outgoing Democrat supported his chief of staff. Republicans saw that as an opportunity and spent a lot of money on the race. Nevertheless, Jim Costa was elected 54-46. His toughest race was in that terrible year for Democrats, 2010. It took three weeks for the race to be called and Jim Costa won by 3,000 votes. 2014, another mid-term presidential year was another tough year. Jim Costa won by 9,600 votes. That year, he was one of the Democrats who hired two Pakistani brothers subsequently charged with misusing government technology without the knowledge of their employers.
Jim Costa rarely faced ideological opposition. A leader of the Blue Dog coalition, he supported the Keystone XL Pipeline, the Saudi Arabian intervention in Yemen, and was apprehensive about the Affordable Care Act. He voted for that bill after a medical school was promised for California’s Central Valley. A vigorous supporter of infrastructure, including high speed rail, he was one of the nine Democrats that forced the separation of the infrastructure bill from Joe Biden’s other Build Back Better proposals – dooming (at least so far) proposals for support for child care and care for the elderly.
Jim Costa could find middle ground on immigration – urging a comprehensive reform that would strengthen border security while giving undocumented farm workers a pathway to legal status. His position on agricultural issues is also a kind of middle ground. He sought limitations on agricultural regulation, while supporting federal funding of various kinds of clean-up operations.
Jim Costa also supported a few progressive issues – abortion, contraception and other issues related to sexual health. He is an advocate of statehood for the District of Columbia. And, as noted above, he is an advocate of renewing the country’s infrastructure.
I recommend that you support Jim Costa. He is an important Democratic voice in Congress. I will make another suggestion as well. Consider supporting the Fresno Community Health Improvement Partnership (FCHIP), an organization in Jim Costa’s district that focuses on increasing voter participation. Nationally, a great organization that works to help people fulfill the requirements to vote is VoteRiders. Consider them, too.
Six Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents in the Pacific Coast and the Northwest
Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Washington 03. In her first term, she is a graduate of Reed College. She and her husband have been running an auto repair shop and is #4 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republicans have yet announced their candidacy for this seat. See Len’s Political Note #543
Incumbent Andrea Salinas Oregon 06 In her first term, she is the daughter of Mexican immigrants. She was a congressional aide before becoming a leading non-profit figure and is #8 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republicans have yet announced their candidacy for this seat. See Len’s Political Note #548
Incumbent Mike Levin California 49 is in his second term after ousting a Republican incumbent. Co-founder of a clean energy trade association, he has a BA from Stanford and a JD from Duke. He is #25 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republicans have yet announced their candidacy for this seat.
Incumbent Kim Schrier Washington 08 was first elected in 2018. A pediatrician, she ran for Congress in response to Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. She is #32 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democrats. A banker, Carmen Goers has announced her candidacy. See Len’s Political Note #390 for the 2022 election.
Incumbent Mary Peltola Alaska AL is in her first term of office. Alaska’s first native American Member of Congress, she has an informal alliance with Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. Mary Peltola is #35 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republicans have yet announced for this seat.
Incumbent Val Hoyle Oregon 04 grew up and went to school in Massachusetts. She was sufficiently acclimated to Oregon that she served as the state’s labor commissioner. She is #36 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republicans have yet announced for this seat.
Seven Vulnerable Republican Incumbents in the Pacific and the Northwest
Republican John Duarte California 13 is in his first term in Congress. He won in 2022 by less than 1,000 votes and is #2 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents. CEO of a family agricultural business, three Democrats have announced their candidacy – financial advisor and ex candidate Phil Arballo, Academic Brad Boyd, and infection disease expert Angelina Segala.
Republican David Valadao California 22 was a dairy farmer before being elected to public office. He was first elected in 2012 and is #7 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents. Former Assemblyman Rudy Salas announced his candidacy for 2024 immediately after Valadao’s 2022 election was announced. See Len’s Political Note #484 for the 2022 election.
Republican Lori Chavez De-Remer Oregon 05 is in her first term. Before that she was mayor of the small city of Happy Valley. She is #12 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbent. Investigator Kevin Eastman is the only Democrat who has announced so far. There will probably be more.
Republican Ryan Zinke Montana 01, a first term Congressman, a former Montana Congressman who resigned from his position as Trump’s Secretary of Interior for ethical reasons. He is #13 on Len’s List of vulnerable incumbent Republicans. No Democrat has yet announced for the seat.
Republican Ken Calvert California 41 was first elected to Congress in 1982. He has long been a strong opponent of abortion and of same sex marriage. He is #17 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans both because of an increase in Hispanic residents in the district and the growth of Palm Springs, a heavily Democratic and gay friendly city. Former prosecutor and the candidate who lost to Calvert Will Rollins as have two city councilmen – Brian Hawkins and Tim Sheridan.
Republican Mike Garcia California 27 is a former navy pilot and division manager of Raytheon. He was first elected in a special in 2020. He is #19 on Len’s List Vulnerable Republican incumbents. Two interesting Democrats are facing off for this seat – wrongly convicted of murder, now a country probation officer Franky Carillo and chemist, research professor, and former CEO George Whitesides.
Republican Kevin Kiley California 03 is a former assemblyman and an attorney whose views “flirt with the fringes of the GOP” according to the AP. He is in his first term and is #24 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents. No Democrat has yet announced for this seat.
