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June 12th , 2023 Political Note #567 Michelle Vallejo Texas 15
2024 General Election
Conscious that the election is 17 months away, Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz reacted to Michelle Vallejo announcing that she was running again for South Texas’s 15th Congressional District saying the following: “We’ll have plenty of time to discuss my record of working in a bipartisan manner to deliver results for South Texas. Right now, I am focused on promoting my positive agenda for our community which includes solving the Biden border crisis, providing tax relief to working families, and protecting Medicare and Social Security so our abuelitos can retire with dignity.”
It would be more accurate to say, Monica De La Cruz has spent 2023 supporting the Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy who refused to take the routine step of raising the limit on the debt ceiling unless those programs are cut and then got only 149 votes in favor of the compromise he advocated. De La Cruz’ website describes her views which cover nearly all of the distasteful Republican talking points. Let me mention two.
She favors empowering people to control their own health care to fit their needs except, of course, for pregnant women. She suggests incentives for public workers to save money. I recall that kind of effort in Massachusetts. The then Republican governor praised an employee for a substantial cost saving idea and offered her the reward she was eligible for. She rejected the money and explained she was doing her job. We should value our public employees for what they do, pay them for what they are worth, and not presume they are wasting our money and need incentives beyond those proper salaries to get their job done.
Michelle Vallejo began her campaign for Congress in 2022 with two handicaps. She had to focus on a very tough primary and a run off she won by 35 votes. Including the money spent on the primary, Michelle Vallejo raised and spent $2.3 million dollars on her campaign. She got no help from the DCCC. In contrast, Monica De La Cruz had little need to spend on her primary and did not need a run off. She raised and spent $4.5 million, almost all of it focused on defeating Michelle Vallejo for what was then an open seat formerly held by a Democrat.
De La Cruz is 20th on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republican incumbents. That is not high enough to be confident that Michelle Vallejo will oust the incumbent, but high enough to think she has a chance – especially in a year that is beginning to remind Democrats of 2018, especially in Texas where the Senate race near the top of the ticket is a confrontation between the unlikeable incumbent — Princeton BA, Harvard JD Ted Cruz vs the likeable challenger Baylor BA, Berkeley JD Congressman Colin Allred.
Michelle Vallejo went to Columbia. Among the strongest local students, she could have powered on and entered the upper middle class. She could have worked for one of the business consultants, gotten an MBA, and lived a different life. Her story is one of family values, of a return to South Texas after her graduation, a return to where her mother had died of multiple sclerosis at age 46 and her father welcomed Michelle Vallejo’s help running the family business.
Reporters and others describe Michelle Vallejo as a businesswoman or even as an entrepreneur. Better to describe her as a dutiful daughter, come home to help her dad. The family pulga or flea market was also a kind of community center. Michelle Vallejo was adopted by her community; especially by the local progressive community. She was a favorite because her family values included a $15 minimum wage, decent access to medical care (Medicare for All, she thought, would be the best way to get there), and reproductive rights for women so that women can live their lives and achieve for themselves and their families.
With the local progressives, she founded a chapter of New Leaders Council STX Frontera. They were focused on equity and ran an annual conference in San Antonio called Hustle and Socialize. The goal was to support businesswomen and entrepreneurs. Maybe it is not wrong to describe her as an entrepreneur. More than that, though, she is a politician. She is running for Congress intending to replace Monica De La Cruz.
I will repeat what I suggested at the beginning. There is a lot to dislike about the incumbent Republican.
- If you believe that Donald Trump is a danger to civil society and democracy, you will find that the Republican incumbent is an unabashed supporter of the former President.
- If you believe that women should have the right to made decisions about their own body, you will find that the Republican incumbent disagrees.
- If you believe the world’s climate and its future rests with clean energy, you will find her an advocate of deregulating the oil and gas industries
- If you believe education is liberating, you will find her looking for Critical Race Theory and anti-American propaganda in every classroom
- If you believe that the proliferation of guns in American is dangerous, you will find her advocating a distorted view of the 2nd Amendment that leads to an expectation of a gun in every pocket or pocket book.
- If you believe in Freedom of Speech, you will find her among those who argue that “True” Freedom of Speech should be protected
There is more to dislike. She disparaged legislation for providing funds for relief of Covid. Nevertheless, she applied for those funds for her insurance agency. The incumbent denies accusations, though they persist, that she abused her teenage daughter.
Let’s elect Michelle Vallejo to Congress from Texas’s 15th Congressional district, a district that begins on the southern border and works its way north through rural South Texas. This is another district where too few people vote. Redistricted, the 2022 general election vote totaled 151,590. The problem is not only that Michelle Vallejo lost by 12,881 votes. The problem is that not enough people in the district vote. In the absence of the DCCC undertaking a massive effort to increase voting in predominantly Latino districts, support organizations that register voters and encourage voting. In South Texas, Lupe Votes would be a good place to start. Disclosure: That is an organization sympathetic with Michelle Vallejo’s candidacy.
Five Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents in the Southwest
Incumbent Gabe Vasquez New Mexico 02. In his first term, he is an environmentalist for the people and was elected to a district that keeps swinging back and forth from D to R and back to D. He is #1 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell, who he ousted from Congress is running to get the seat back. See Len’s Political Note
Incumbent Yadira Caraveo Colorado 08. In her first term, she is a pediatrician and a state legislator whose personal commitment has been to serve low income children, her political commitment is to create a society where everyone has a decent opportunity for a good life. She is #2 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republican has announced a candidacy for this seat yet. See Len’s Political Note
Incumbent Susie Lee Nevada 03. In her third term, beginning in 2018, she has won by 10 points, 3 points, and 4 points. He is #13 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents. Now divorced from the owner of several casinos, she was a philanthropist and community leader before she was a politician. Two Republicans have already announced their candidacy for this seat. See Len’s Political Note
Incumbent Steve Horsford Nevada 04. In his fourth term, an African American, he I grew up with the responsibility of being head of the family from a very early age. He is a former majority leader of the State Senate and is #15 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. See Len’s Political Note
Incumbent Dina Titus Nevada 01. In her 8th term in Congress, she served 20 years in the Nevada Senate after coming to Nevada from the South to be an academic and to teach history. In her most recent election, she won by almost 6 points and is #20 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republican has, as yet, announced for this seat. See Len’s Political Note
Five Vulnerable Republican Incumbents in the Southwest
Republican Incumbent Lauren Boebert Colorado 03. In her 2nd term in Congress, she is a former restaurateur and far right activist with a particular interest in supporting gun rights. In her most recent election she won by 546 votes. She is #1 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and will be facing Democrat Adam Frisch, a former member of the Aspen City Council, and the candidate who came close to defeating her in 2022. See Len’s Political Note #523
Republican Incumbent Dave Schweikert Arizona 01. In his 8th consecutive term and 9th term as a Congressman, he is vulnerable because the House ethics committee has been critical of his handling campaign funds. He is #8 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents. Four Democrats have already announced they are running for this seat and there are rumors about a fifth. These include ex Arizona Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroeme, ex CEO of the financial firm Aspiration Inc Andrei Cherny, State Rep Amish Shah, orthodontist. Andrew Horn, and ex TV anchor Marlene Galan Woods.
Republican Incumbent Juan Ciscomani Arizona 06. In his first term as a Congressman, he was a senior advisor to the Arizona Governor. He is #10 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and will face Kirsten Engel, who was his opponent in 2022. She is an environmental attorney, a former state rep and state Senator, and a faculty member at the University of Arizona Law School. A local businessman is making a try as well. See Len’s Political Note #558
Republican Incumbent Monica De La Cruz Texas 15. In her first term as a Congresswoman, she was a realtor before she was elected to Congress. She is #20 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and will face Michelle Vallejo, who runs, with her father, a flea market and was handicapped last time by a very close primary run off and a lack of funds. She will be handicapped by neither in 2024. See Len’s Political Note #567
Republican Incumbent Eli Crane Arizona 02. A former Navy SEAL in his first term as a Congressman, he joined with the most extreme Republicans in Congress after defeating a popular moderate Democrat in a district gerrymandered so that a Democrat would find it difficult to win. He is #25 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and could lose only in a heavily Democratic year against a strong Democrat who could be a moderate to Crane’s extremism. No Democratic candidate has yet announced for this seat. President of the Navajo Nation Jonathan Nez and County Attorney Bill Ring have been suggested by Democrats as possible candidate
