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April 25th, 2024 Len’s Political Note #639 North Carolina State Senate
2024 General Election
Here is a modest goal. While we work to elect a Democratic Governor, a Democratic Lt. Governor, a Democratic Attorney General, a Democratic Secretary of State, a Democratic State Supreme Court Justice in North Carolina, to minimize the effect of Congressional gerrymandering and keep NC 01 Democrat, and to win North Carolina’s Presidential electoral college votes, let us try to break the stranglehold the gerrymandered state legislature has on the state’s executive. Though statewide voting in North Carolina is evenly divided, the state legislature is not.
The North Carolina legislature has been redistricted for 2024 and may get further imbalanced. The North Carolina constitution allows the Senate and the Assembly to override the governor’s vetoes with a 60% vote (unlike the 67% required in the federal government and in most states). As a consequence, the capacity of the Governor, when there is a Democratic governor, to serve as a check on the overwhelmingly Republican legislature is limited unless Democrats can get elect more than 40% of either the House or the Senate or both.
It appeared as if Democrats had just enough. Though Republicans had 30 out of 50 Senators, the House was just out of their reach. 71 House seats was one too few. Until Representative Tricia Cotham changed parties. She had won a safe Democratic seat as a safe Democrat. In April 2023, she changed parties and voting patterns. With 72 House seats, the Republicans had a 60% majority in both Houses. They could override the governor’s vetoes.
Besides the astonishingly dangerous slate of candidates the Republicans have presented for executive offices, 2024 is also a test of whether North Carolina Democrats can eliminate the 60% supermajority Republicans have in at least one House, maybe both.
To consider the context for the North Carolina State Senate race, I use, primarily, material from The John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Partisan Index. The John Locke Foundation “believes in free markets, limited constitutional government, and personal responsibility” They say that if “someone asks whether the John Locke Foundation is conservative (classically) liberal, or libertarian, the appropriate answer is ‘yes.’ “ If someone asked which political party they are aligned with, the answer would be Republican.
We can disagree with their politics and still respect their work. Democrats seek a more active, more problem-solving government than the John Locke Foundation would prefer. Furthermore, in general, Democrats believe that the personal responsibility that The John Locke Foundation believes every American should bear for themselves is best achieved by providing sufficient support for people to take responsibility for themselves and for others. Call in “pass it on.”
The Civitas Partisan Index analyzes where the State Senate is politically now that legislative gerrymandering is complete, primaries are over, and the general election is coming. The CPI says that for the 50 Member State Senate, 23 seats are safe or likely Republican. 18 are safe or likely Democratic. Of the 9 remaining seats, CPI describes 5 seats as toss ups. That means 4 seats Lean Republican. Others have a voice in this as well. Daily Kos describes at least one seat as Lean Democrat.
Below I have a few words to say about each of the toss up races. And as an example, I suggest helping the Democrat is one of the Lean Republican races and one Lean Democrat race. If Democrats can sweep the toss ups, they will have 23 seats and will be able to prevent the Republican Senate from overriding a veto. To get a majority, Democrats would have to win all of the safe, likely, and lean Democratic seats, win the toss up seats, AND win two of the Lean Republican seats, AND win the Lt. Governor race.
This could well be a Democratic year in North Carolina. The state wide Republican candidates are so extreme, that extremism could drive independents to vote for Democrats in the state legislature.
Here are the Toss up races Democrats have to win
North Carolina State Senate
NC SD13 Lisa Grafstein is a freshman state senator representing a district north of Raleigh. Relatively prosperous, the district was willing to vote into office a member of the LGBTQ community and an advocate for their interests. She opposed a proposed ban on gender affirming care and urged caution regarding legalizing video sports gambling. She proposed that North Carolina cities be allowed to regulate rent withing their borders. In her professional life, she has been an attorney working for Disability Rights North Carolina, advocating for people with disabilities.
The current North Carolina legislature was less welcoming than were the constituents of the current NC SD 13. In redistricting the legislature took two steps that targeted Lisa Grafstein. They shifted the district so that it leaned Republican and included another incumbent State Senator in the old district where Lisa Grafstein lived. She moved north. She would run for MISD13 in its new form. It was a Republican leaning district without an incumbent.
Scott Lassiter will be her Republican opponent. He was a Wake County assistant principal of a school for children who need particular help in achieving academically and behaving appropriately. Ambitious, he got credentials to become a superintendent and then decided on politics. He borrowed $50,000 and received $10,000 more in contributions and describes himself as an optimistic conservative.
Lassiter brought with him previous political and sexual notoriety. He sued the Speaker of the North Carolina House, now running for Congress, for breaking up his marriage. The story interested people throughout that state. Some details have remained private because the case was settled out of court.
Prior to the primary Lisa Grafstein borrowed received $75,000 in contributions. OATH.vote rates contributions in terms of the leverage they provide. They rate Lisa Grafstein as 9.7 on their 10 point scale. Daily Kos considers the race a Toss Up. DONATE TO LISA GRAFSTEIN.
Terence J. Everitt. SD 18
Terence Everitt, an attorney and Member of the House of Representatives in Northern Wake County is running for Senate District 18 – in Wake Forest, north of Raleigh and east of Durham. He has a BA from Rutgers and a JD from Catholic University, which is where he met his North Carolina wife who persuaded him that North Carolina was the place to settle and raise children. He practices business law in Wake Forest, has been active in the Chamber of Commerce, and was going to retire from the legislature when District 18 became open.
Terence Everitt opted to remain in politics – leading with one particular issue. He would continue to work to protect the right to an abortion for women. He has other issues as well – pointing to North Carolina’s 43rd rank in education spending, to how teachers can move across state lines to South Carolina or Tennessee and get a $10,000 raise. He has a lot to say about the Republican dominated legislature:
- condemning environmental protections that had been required for business
- condemning cuts in corporate taxes while increased sales taxes on goods and services disproportionally affected local small business
- condemning their opposition to gun safety measures overwhelmingly supported by the populace
- condemning gerrymandering as a commitment to political power over the will of the people
Terence Everitt’s opponent is Ashley Bryan Adams. A graduate of Meredith College, she is an event planner. She co-owns POUR Services and the Southerland Estate and Gardens. Daily Kos describes the race as a Toss up. DONATE TO TERENCE EVERITT
Lt. Col James Mercer SD 11
James Mercer retired from the military as a Lt. Colonel. He has served as a police officer, firefighter and EMT, and is challenging Republican Sen. Lisa Barnes in SD-11 (Nash, Franklin and Vance counties). He is Director of Military Services at North Carolina Wesleyan University. He also serves as Chair of the Nash Community College Board of Tustees. He was appointed to the North Carolina Military Affairs Commission, which advises the state’s political leadership about the relationship between the state and its several military installations and how they fit with both the national defense and the state’s economy. For most of his career, he served in the Army Reserves. In his civilian life, he worked on emergency management and homeland security. Among those he worked with were the City of Raleigh, Edgecombe County, and Fayetteville State University.
James Mercer is running against Incumbent Lisa Stone Barnes. Born in Nash County, she is a graduate of North Carolina State. She completed a legal studies assistant program at Meredith College and an Associate’s Degree at Peace College. She was elected a Nash Commissioner based on her opposition to a poultry plant. Six years later she defeated a gerrymandered, incumbent Democrat for the House of Representatives. Two years later, in 2020, she defeated an incumbent Democrat for the State Senate.
Barnes says “the government’s main function is to balance the budget, control spending, and keep taxes low, so that individuals and communities can continue to excel and reach their highest potential.” She praises education in North Carolina and points out that she have voted, six years in a row, to give teachers raises. She also praises the variety of choices educational choices parents have. Regarding health care, she is proud of her vote for North Carolina to adopt the Medicaid portion of the Affordable Care Act. She leads off her statement about improving the economy by noting her vote to “cut state income taxes in half [and to make] the first $25,000 of every North Carolina family income completely tax-free”
Daily Kos describes the race as Lean Republican. Counteract that. DONATE TO JAMES MERCER
Kathy Batt. SD 24
Daughter of a Marine, Kathy Batt chose military service. What is more, long before the US military committed itself to women in combat, Kathy Batt was committed to putting herself in harm’s way. A graduate of Field Artillery School and Rotary Wing Flight School she was deployed to Grenada and was one of the first women to fly in combat, Subsequently, she graduated from Helicopter Mainenance and Test Pilot School. Deployed for both Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, she was the first woman to command a company in an Attack Helicopter Squadron.
Redeployed home in 1991, she met a man. She married Gaabriel Eszterhaus, an Hungarian immigrant from New York. He became a CPA. She left the active military as a Captian and joined the FBI. In the FBI, she was a Special Agent in the Criminal Division, working largely on organized crime and health care fraud cases.
In 2016, when her husband was offered the job as Vice Chancellor of the University of North Carolina – Pembroke, she retired from the FBI. While she enjoyed being in and around a university again, she is running against the odds and against Incumbent Republican Danny Earl Britt. She identifies three issues central to her campaign – preserving voting rights, supporting high quality education, and improving worker pay by being supportive of unions.
Danny Earl Britt was elected to Senate District 24 in 2016, the year that Donald Trump was elected President. An attorney, he has never been seriously challenged for the seat. A Lt. Colonel in the NC National Guard, he was the first Republican elected to the district since Reconstruction. Son of a textile worker and a state employee, he joined the national guard in high school, played football at Appalachian State, was deployed to Iraq and Kuwait, and runs his own law firm. He is a favorite of the Chamber of Commerce. His goal is to keep he government away from businesses, control state spending, reduce taxes, and put money away in the Rainy Day fund. He says he favors common sense improvements in education, and money for rural areas including the UNC – Pembroke business school, the local community college, and funds to reduce infant mortality. In general, he would be a favorite of the John Locke Foundation, but not ours.
DONATE TO KATHY BATT. She has spent her life ensuring the accountability of America’s foes – foreign and domestic.
Woodson Bradley. SD 42
Woodson Bradley has a story. It is not political. It is grounded in the most ordinary community business. She is certainly not the only real estate and insurance business owner in Charlotte, but she has distinguished herself. She is in business with her husband. She does the personal insurance side. William does the commercial side.
Around 2009, the year her business was recognized by Forbes Magazine, two other things happened. The real estate crisis did harm to her business. She confronted her first husband who was doing her harm.
Woodson Bradley is a 1995 graduate of Hollins University in Roanoke, Virginia. By 2003, she had been in a position to start her own real estate business. She survived her 21st century crises, but not easily. By 2019, she was supplementing the real estate work in three ways. She did some fitness instruction at the Greater Charlotte YMCA. She had become a professional speaker on Domestic Violence. And with her new husband, they began their work for the Ballantyne Insurance Group In 2023, she began selling real estate again.
During that decade between 2009 and 2019, she lived the life of a single mom. Initially, she received support from Mecklenberg social services. Gradually, she began talking in public about domestic abuse, focusing particularly on preventing dating violence, speaking particularly to 7th, 8th, and 9th graders.
Through the bad times and the good, she was an active volunteer parent. She is a regular, for instance, at Classroom Central, which provides classroom supplies to teachers who get too few of those supplies from the school district. She is a venue manager for the NC Special Olympics. She keeps on doing good work.
Now she is putting her energy into getting elected to the North Carolina State Senate. There is no incumbent to run against. The favorite is so unclear that CPI calls this district a toss-up.
The Republican candidate is Stacie McGinn. She is from New Mexico and a graduate of Baylor and Georgetown Law School. In Washington, she was on a Reagan taskforce bringing private sector practices to the federal bureaucracy. Partner in a law firm, she focused on mergers and acquisitions and then served as Bank of America’s Deputy General counsel for international consumer groups.
She describes herself now as a Conservative Activist and Leader. She helped elect a Republican to the Charlotte City council, worked to add Republican poll watchers, and joined with those who lobbied the legislature to adopt a parents’ bill of rights. As a state Senator she plans to bring high academic standards to public schools, safety to Mecklenburg county (eliminating the “past false narrative” that traditional policing is racist), and protecting business growth.
McGinn has played on a big stage and would bring that experience with her. Woodson Bradley has experienced self-made success, the hardships of life, and a return to a better life, in part, through the help of social services. DONATE TO WOODSON BRADLEY. She knows more and has experienced more of what is needed to help people succeed in life.
Here is a candidate Daily Kos says is running in a district that Leans Democratic.
Kandie Smith SD 05
The incumbent in this district, Kandie Smith was elected to SD 05 by 4.5 points in 2022. She had been a member of the North Carolina House of Representatives and, before that, a member of the Greenville City Council and the interim mayor of Greenville. In 2018, she was elected to the House of Representatives in a battle of Smiths, as she defeated Businesswoman Brenda Letchworth Smith. She also does business consulting – providing training in staff development and assistance in crisis management. Her legislative interests have been to increase job opportunities and affordable housing and to increase spending on education.
Her Republican opponent is Alexander Paschall. A graduate of Campbell University’s Law School, a school ranked by some as the most conservative university in America. He worked as a public defender and explains he is “passionately preserving constitutional rights through meticulous preparation and the study of law.” He probably should do that somewhere other than the North Carolina State Senate. DONATE TO KANDIE SMITH. Daily Kos considers the race Lean Democratic.
Here is a Democratic candidate who the CPI says is running in a district that Leans Republican.
Dr. David Hill SD 07.
David Hill is running against incumbent Michael Lee for this Wilmington based district. Born and raised in Memphis, he got his BA from Rice and his medical degree from the University of Texas. He moved to North Carolina for his residency in the University of North Carolina medical system. From there, he settled in Wilmington to practice as a pediatrician. He and his wife run together, they shop for healthy ingredients at locally owned groceries; they and their four dogs appear to live the upscale life of the prosperous.
Instead, he is running for the North Carolina Senate. He explains that when he takes care of children, he looks at the entirely of their experience – from housing to schooling to personal safety. He particularly notes that children in rural North Carolina do not get the kind of care and housing and schooling and safety they deserve. He adds that the legislature, as it involves itself in women’s reproductive health and various other matters of sexuality, has begun to practice medicine. He knows a lot about medical policy, he says, and he will help. He knows, for instance how to ensure that rural hospitals can remain open. The legislature did do one important thing – accepting Medicai as part of the Affordable Care Act. Now there is a need to address the problems that keep doctors from accepting Medicaid.
His opponent, Michael Lee, has been in the state Senate for two terms. He is also a commercial real estate attorney. The first thing he says is his belief in fiscally responsible state budgets. He is interested in revenue as well as care about spending. He supporter, he explains, tripling the incentives to the film industry to operate in North Carolina. He would cut personal and corporate income taxes if he can, increase funding for education and teacher pay, and he makes claims about supporting clean water and other environmental matters. DONATE TO DAVID HILL. If elected, he would make a difference.
The Other North Carolina races
Governor
Attorney General Josh Stein is the overwhelming favorite to be the Democratic nominee for Governor. Can Democrats keep this as a Democratic office? Josh Stein built law and order credentials by focusing on on-line sexual predators and leading the law suit against the purveyors of opioids. His opponent will be Lt. Governor Mark Robinson – so much an extreme right figure, he is both dangerous and hard to take seriously for being as dangerous as he would be in office. Earlier, in February Axios, reported that Josh Stein had $11.5 million for his campaign; Mark Robinson had $4.3 million. Two April polls found Stein leading — one by 7, another by 8 points. One April poll found Robinson leading by 2. DONATE TO JOSH STEIN. See Len’s Political Note #574
Lt. Governor
State Senator Rachel Hunt, whose father was a four term governor of North Carolina, nevertheless, came to electoral politics late. A graduate of UNC and UNC Law School, she was moved to consider electoral politics by Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss to Donald Trump. Before that decision, she practiced law, served on boards focused on education, founded a business helping students and families search for colleges, and was at home as much as she could with her children. Rachel Hunt was elected to the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2018 by 68 votes and in 2020 by 4,800 votes. She was elected to the state senate in 2022 by 8,000 votes. In 2024, Rachel Hunt won the Democratic primary for Lt. Governor with 70% of the vote. The Republican nominee will probably be Hal Weatherman, a former political aide to some of the more extreme North Carolina Republicans. On May 14, Republicans will choose between Weatherman and Jim O’Neill, a county district attorney,
Attorney General
Congressman Jeff Jackson is the overwhelming favorite to be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General. Republican gerrymandering of Congressional seats has made Jeff Jackson’s seat impossible for a Democrat to win. In Congress, he sought to eliminate poverty by increasing the minimum wage, expanding Medicaid, increasing support for affordable housing, and increasing support for K-12 and college and university education. His Republican opponent is Congressman Dan Bishop. As a State Senator, he led the effort to pass a bill to ensure that users of public bathrooms use bathrooms appropriate to their gender when they were born. Jeff Jackson had $1.8 million according to Axios’s report; Dan Bishop had $1.3 million. Help Jeff Jackson stay ahead in the money race and win the election. DONATE TO JEFF JACKSON. See Len’s Political Note #597
Secretary of State
Long time incumbent Secretary of State Elaine Marshall will be opposed by a county commissioner, a political consultant, or a health care executive. Chad Brown is running on his experience as a professional athlete; the other two appear to rely heavily on the religiosity. DONATE TO ELAINE MARSHALL. See Len’s Political Note #626
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Mo Green, with a BA and JD from Duke, practiced law, represented the Charlotte-Mecklenburg School District, became their Assistant Superintendent and moved on to become Superintendent of the Guilford School System and then Executive Director of the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation – an organization that has invested more than $600 million in the state. He is opposed by Michelle Morrow who has described public schools as ““socialism centers” and “Indoctrination centers.” She urges parents to choose not to send their children to public schools. DONATE TO MO GREEN. See Len’s Political Note #628
Supreme Court Associate Justice
Incumbent Justice Allison Riggs is a former head of an activist civil rights legal organization. She was appointed to the Court by Governor Roy Cooper. In North Carolina, appointees are obliged to run for election in the next general election. 2024 is that election. Allison Riggs is opposed by Appeals Court Judge Jefferson Griffin. Supporters describe him as having the experience to be the next conservative justice on the North Carolina Supreme Court – a court which currently has 5 Republicans to 2 Democrats. NC Newsline reports that Allison Riggs started 2024 with about $300,000 in campaign funds while Jefferson Griffin had $700,000. DONATE TO ALLISON RIGGS. See Len’s Political Note #594
North Carolina 01
Inc Don Davis was elected in 2022 to this generally low income, rural district which runs along the Virginia border from the Raleigh suburbs to the city of Greenville. An Air Force Academy graduate, among his duties in the Air Force was informing families of a military death. He earned graduate degrees and taught at Eastern Carolina University, and served as mayor of the small town he was from. His opponent, Laurie Buckhout is a military veteran and successful businesswoman and strategic consultant. She raised about $1.3 million for her campaign to Don Davis’s $1.2 million (most of which he still has). In the middle of February, she was down to $300,000, having spent a lot to win the Republican primary. DONATE TO DON DAVIS He will need every dollar to win this race. See Len’s Politica Note #577
Nearby US Senate Races
The Big Senate Race Nearby
Florida – Former Member of Congress Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, came to the US when her mother brought her four daughters from Ecuador. Debbie Mucarsel became a professional fund raiser for non-profits and was elected to a term in Congress. She is running against billionaire incumbent and former governor Rick Scott. She began the year with $1.5 million available; he began the year with $3.2 million plus an enormous amount of money in his personal accounts. Her candidacy could be difficult because she has a primary opponent. Polls in March and April found Scott leading by 3 points and by 7 points. DONATE TO DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL. See Len’s Political Note #598
Another Interesting Nearby Senate Race
Tennessee – State Rep Gloria Johnson is known nationally as one of the three state reps who protested against the Tennessee House for refusing to debate a gun safety proposal. Two young Black reps were expelled from the legislature; she was not, by a single vote. She is running against Senator Marsha Blackburn – whose attacks on Democrats put her in a league with Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, and Rick Scott. Gloria Johnson started the year with $1.4 million. Blackburn began the year with $7.4 million. Polls are not encouraging. An April 2 poll had Blackburn up by 16 points. DONATE TO GLORIA JOHNSON See Len’s Political Note #622
We have a presidential race to win
Support Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
As we look toward November, 2024, help sustain the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaign. Eleven polls between April 1 and April 10 found Trump ahead in 6 of them ranging from +1 to +6, Biden ahead in 4 of them ranging from +1 to +4. One poll was even. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But large numbers of small donations are a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN AND KAMALA HARRIS. See Len’s Political Note #605
#21 in the Stephenson County, IL list of Biden accomplishments: Reduced health care premiums under the Affordable Care Act by $800 a year as part of the American Rescue Plan.
