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June 8th , 2023 Political Note #565 Seth Magaziner Rhode Island 02
2024 General Election
How long does it take to be a local? Is it a little longer in Rhode Island? Going to Brown doesn’t really do it. You would think that being born in Rhode Island would do it. Even if your father was born in New York.=
I was born in Providence and grew up in Cranston. I haven’t lived there since I graduated from a Massachusetts college in 1963. Nevertheless, I still feel a little bit like a local. Maybe because my sister lives there and runs what even she thinks of as our mother’s store.
Seth Magaziner was born in Bristol. His dad, Ira, was born in New York and went to Brown. His dad, famously, became a Friend of Bill’s while they were Rhodes Scholars. His dad became an advisor of Bill’s during the Clinton administration, helping formulate the health care proposal that never did take off. Ira and his wife Suzanne, Wellesley graduate, Harvard MBA and JD, and international business consultant, still call Bristol their home. That is where their children were born. Just maybe, because Ira was born in New York, they weren’t locals.
Seth Magaziner should be able to claim that he is a local. This is not to say that he spent every moment of his life in Rhode Island. He went to Milton Academy for high school in nearby Massachusetts. He taught school as part of Teach for America – not in Providence, but in Opelousa, Louisiana. He was not going to spend his life teaching school. He got his MBA from Yale – not that far away in Connecticut.
Seth Magaziner went to work at Point Judith Capital. Now that is a local Rhode Island investment fund – co-founded by Gina Raimondo. She’s a Democrat, served as Treasurer of the State of Rhode Island and then as governor. These days she is Joe Biden’s Secretary of Commerce. Every once in a while when national reporters run out of something to write about, they suggest she would be a great vice presidential or even presidential candidate. One of the first female graduates of La Salle Academy in Providence, no one questions whether she is a local.
Seth Magaziner was elected State Treasurer of Rhode Island in 2014, replacing Gina Raimondo when she became the state’s governor. She was credited with saving the teacher retirement pension system. There are retired teachers and teachers who contemplate retirement who have not forgiven her for the reductions that were part of the system’s salvation. Seth Magaziner’s tenure was less momentous, though still important. He fought climate change and certain large corporations. His office financed green projects and sued fossil fuel companies for oil spills. He joined shareholders of Wells Fargo criticizing the Bank’s Board for its fraudulent activity and demanded a report about how fraud could have occurred. Others criticized him for high fees and risky investments of state funds as well as what they saw as cozy relationships with bankers who turned around and supported his Congressional candidacy. He remained in the State Treasurer’s office a full two terms.
Seth Magaziner contemplated running for governor in 2022. When Democrat James Langevin announced his retirement from Congress, Seth Magaziner redirected his interest to run for Rhode Island’s 2nd district. He wan’t a local though. To forestall criticism that he did not live in the district, he rented a house in Cranston. In 2022, Seth Magaziner defeated Cranston’s mayor, Alan Fung, by a 50.4 – 46.8 margin, by 7,463 votes.
That was a close win. Some might suggest that Fung got as close as a Republican was ever going to get. Some might wonder whether Rhode Island really wanted its entire Membership of the US House to be Jewish, but that is less of an issue now that First District Congressman David Cicilline has announced his retirement. Some might remind us that Rhode Island’s Decond District is relatively conservative – that James Langevin had been one of the few anti-abortion Democrats in the House.
Seth Magaziner has so far taken care. He voted against lifting vaccine mandates for health care workers. He voted against requiring the President to remove troops from Syria. He voted against allowing the District of Columbia to include non-citizens in its voting rolls. Seth Magaziner will not get criticisms for those votes. The DCCC is not worried about him. They have not included him in their Front Line list – candidates they think are vulnerable. I am keeping him in my list.
David Cicilline’s announcement that he would resign from Rhode Island’s First Congressional district has attracted at least 15 Democrats who have announced their candidacy. Not a single Republican has announced. That would be the Rhode Island I am accustomed to.
Provide Seth Magaziner a little help. His close margin of victory in 2022 is enough for me to urge you to help create a campaign finance cushion for him. I do not believe a 2024 victory for him is automatic.
Eight Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents in the Northeast
Incumbent Jahana Hayes Connecticut 05, a former national teacher of the year, is in her third term in Congress and is #3 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. See Len’s Political Note #543
Incumbent Pat Ryan New York 18, a former county executive, is in his first term in Congress and is #5 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. See Len’s Political Note #545
Incumbent Susan Wild Pennsylvania 07, an attorney highly regarded for her integrity as a result of the investigation of corruption in Allentown, is in her third term and is #6 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. See Len’s Political Notes #546
Incumbent Matt Cartwright Pennsylvania 08 is in his fifth term in a Republican leaning district and is #7 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. See Len’s Political Note #547
Incumbent Jared Golden Maine 02 is in his third term in Maine’s more conservative district. He is #17 on Len’s List of vulnerable incumbents and, though he is in this third term, has never been the favorite in this Republican-leaning district. See Len’s Political Note #406 for the 2022 election.
Incumbent Joe Morelle. New York 25 is in his third term plus, having won a special election in 2018 to replace Louise Slaughter who died in office. He is #30 on Len’s List of vulnerable incumbents after fending off a challenge from the City of Rochester’s Republican Police Chief in 2022. So far, no Republicans have announced their candidacy for 2024.
Incumbent Chris Deluzio. Pennsylvania 17 is in his first term as a Member of Congress after succeeding Conor Lamb, who ran for the US Senate, losing in the primary to John Fetterman in 2022. Chris Deluzio is #34 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. A former naval officer and a former attorney in private practice, he was a legal and policy scholar at the University of Pittsburgh. So far one Republican has announced his candidacy and at least a half dozen others have been suggested as possibilities. See Len’s Political Note #475 for the 2022 election
Incumbent Chris Pappas New Hampshire 01 is in his third term and is not ranked on Len’s List. He is in his third term and is always a focus a concern in this evenly divided district. His continued connection with his family’s friendly restaurant may make a difference. See Len’s Political Note #429 for the 2022 election
Seven Vulnerable Republican Candidates in the Northeast
Republican Michael Lawler of New York 17 is #4 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republican House Members. School Board Member Liz Whitmer Gereghty, sister of the governor of Michigan, has announced and former Congressman Mondaire Jones may return to the district and run.
Republican Brandon Williams of New York 22 is #6 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republican House Members. In his first term, a businessman with loose links to the district, he is being challenged by town councilor and former candidate Sarah Klee Hood. Although another Democrat has surfaced, I stand by my recommendation that you support Sarah Klee Hood. See Len’s Political Note #558.
Republican Marc Molinaro of New York 19 is #9 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republican House Members. At least three Democrats have announced or will announce for this seat. These include the 2022 candidate Josh Riley, an Al Franken protégé, State Senator Michelle Hinchey, whose father represented Central New York in Congress for 20 years, and Insurance Manager Don Butterman.
Republican Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey 07 is a first term Congressman and is #14 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican House Members. Democratic State Senator Ray Lezniak has announced his candidacy for this position. Additional Democratic candidates are expected.
Republican Anthony D’Esposito of New York 04 is a first term congressman and is #15 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republican House Members. No Democratic candidates have yet announced.
Republican George Santos of New York 03 is a first term congressman. Because he has been so visibly a fabulist he may be the most vulnerable Congressman in the country. Because Len’s List is based on a crude and simple measure, Santos is #21 on that list. Democratic County Legislator Josh Lafazan has announced for this position as has attorney and former figure skater Sara Hughes and former State Senator Anna Kaplan. A Republican businessman Kellen Curry, has announced. There will be more Democrats and Republicans running for this seat.
Republican Scott Perry of Pennsylvania 10 was elected to Congress in 2012. He was one of the most active Congressional supporters of Donald Trump’s effort to remain in office despite losing the 2020 election. He is #23 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican members of Congress. City Councilwoman Shamaine Danielsannounced late in 2020 and lost by 24,116. She had announced early for 2024 and will benefit from the turnout in a presidential year. See Len’s Political Note #559
