September 14th, 2026 Len’s Political Note #838 Supplement: Midwestern Battlegrounds for the House of Representatives
2026 General Election
It is in the Midwest that the US Senate will be won by the Democrats or the Republicans. It is in the Midwest where crucial states will come out of November with Democratic or Republican governors. And it is in the Midwest where the House of Representatives will be won or lost by a little bit or by a landslide – by Democrats or by Republicans.
Iowa 01 Law Professor and Ex State Rep Christina Bohannan
Iowa 02 State Rep Lindsay James
Iowa 03 State Senator Sarah Trone Gariott
Michigan 04 State Senator Sean McCann
Michigan 07 Climate Activist William Lawrence
Michigan 10 Prosecutor Christina Hines
Ohio 07 City Councilor Brian Poindexter
Ohio 09 Incumbent Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur
Wisconsin 01 ER Nurse Mitchell Berman
Wisconsin 03 Businesswoman and Non-Profit Head Rebecca Cooke
Iowa 02: State Rep Lindsay James is the Democrat running in what Nate Silver describes as the closest race in the country. Including, more or less, the northeastern quadrant of Iowa. Lindsay Jamea is a Presbyterian minister. She has been a college chaplain, a pulpit minister, and co-founded and directed the Peace Institute at the Roman Catholic Loras College in Dubuque. Currently, the minority whip in the Iowa House of Representatives and has supported regulating lease agreements on corporate owned manufactured homes. Her opponent is former Trump administration staffer Joe Mitchell who may have had a role in identifying Democrats to be accused of misrepresentation on mortgage applications. In a July poll, Linday James led by a single point. She trails Joe Mitchell slightly in the financial race. He has raised $1.9 million and had $900,000 available on June 30. She has raised $1.8 million and had $800,000 available on June 30. DONATE to Lindsay James campaign. You can make a difference in whether Lindsay James wins or loses. She can make a difference in whether or not the Democrats control the House. See Len’s Political Note #829
Iowa 01 Law professor and former state Rep Christina Bohannan lost in 2024 by 799 votes. She grew up in a Florida trailer, her father unable to work because of injury. She graduated from the University of Florida with a degree in environmental engineering and worked her way through the University of Florida Law School. She left Florida to teach at the University of Iowa Law School and is up for her return match against the incumbent Republican Marionette Miller-Meeks. Marionette Miller-Meeks had lost several Congressional races before her 2020 6 vote win. In Congress, She opposes abortion, same sex maarriagn, and the EPA’s regulation of waterways and coal plants Christina would reduce medical costs by allowing people to opt into Medicare. In the most recent poll, completed in July, Christina Bohannan led by 5 points. The two candidates are evenly matched in the financial race. Miller-Meeks has raised $7.2 million and on June 30 had $4.7 million available. Christina Bohannan raised $7 million and on June 30 had $5.4 million. Christina Bohannan will need resources.. DONATE to her campaign. See Len’s Political Note #737
Iowa 03 State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott is a Lutheran Minister. Originally from Minnesota, she got her BA from St. Scholastica in Duluth. She has a Master’s of Divinity from Harvard and another from Chicago’s Lutheran School of Divinity. She was a hospital chaplain for four years, a congregational pastor in Virginia and in Iowa, and, for nearly ten years, has been the Coordinator of Interfaith Engagement for the Des Moines Area Religious Council. Sarah Trone Garriott was elected to the state Senate in 2020 where she proposed term limits and a ban on insider stock trading. Zach Nunn explored and was discouraged from races for governor and/or for Iowa’s safe Republican seat, Iowa 04. Running for reelection, he urges easier adoption and expansion of child care. He promises to cut back on the federal bureaucracy. There are no recent polls for this district. The financial race is close. Zach Nunn has raised $5.3 million and had $3.9 million available on June 30. Sarah Trone Gariott raised $4.9 million and had $3.6 million available on June 30. This is a winnable seat for Sarah Trone Gariott. DONATE to her campaign. See Len’s Political Note #789
Michigan 04. State Senator Sean McCann is a Potawatomi. He promises Michiganders he will support tax relief, a woman’s right to choose, and bringing good jobs back home. He is running against the incumbent Bill Huizinger who spent a half year being persuaded by Trump and others not to run for the US Senate and another half year deciding whether to run for reelection at all. Nate Silver sees this as a close race. The closest to a recent poll is from June, funded by the Democrats, in which Sean McCann led by 3 points. Huizinga leads in the financial race. He has raised $4.1 million and had $2.3 million remaining on July 15. Sean McCann raised $2.6 million and had $1.7 million remaining on July 15. Sean McCann is close enough to be elected. DONATE to his campaign. See Len’s Political Note #833.
Michigan 07 William Lawrence is the Democratic nominee because he has strong supporters from the left wing of the Democratic Party, because he was running against two strong Democrats who split the vote, and because the Republicans surreptitiously helped him win, thinking he would be the weakest of the three possible candidates. As an organizer and non-profit leader his emphasis was on climate issues. A photo at a unity event pictures the extremely tall William Lawrence between and above his two former opponents. Can he defeat the deeply conservative, anti-abortion one term incumbent Tom Barrett? Cook thinks the race is a Toss-up. The only post-primary published poll, funded by Democrats, had William Lawrence up by two points. William Lawrence has a financial problem. Barrett has raised $6.3 million and had $2.9 million available on July 15. William Lawrence raised $1.1 million and had $400,000 on July 15. He needs resources. DONATE to the William Lawrence campaign.
Michigan 10. Prosecutor Christina Hines is from Macomb, home of the white, working class, unionized voters who abandoned their party’s nominee for President and created the term Reagan Democrats. Macomb is still white — about 70% compared to about 97% white in 1985. Now fewer than 15% of the workers belong to a union. It was about 40% in 1985. In 2024, Trump carried Macomb with 56%. In 1984, Reagan carried the County with 66% of the vote. Christina Hines is a prosecutor who specialized in dealing with child abuse, child pornography, and trafficking of minors. Her husband is a Black man, a project manager for Booz Allen with an MBA. She is running against Veteran Michael Bouchard, son of a popular sheriff. The general election will be fought on who these people are, not on issues particularly – though there are no surprises on their issues. Bouchard says on his website “Bring jobs home” “Build the Wall” “Back to Basic” in education. Christina Hines says “Lower Costs” “Protect Families” “Fight Corruption”. Nate Silver includes Michigan 10 among the very close races. A Democratic funded poll in August had the race EVEN at 45-45. Bouchard has the edge in the financial race. He raised $1.8 million; had $1.1 million on August 19. Christina Hines raised $1.2 million, but had $150,000 on July 15. We need you to DONATE to her campaign.
Ohio 07. See yesterday’s piece on Brian Poindexter. DONATE to his campaign.
Ohio 09. Marcy Kaptur, whose politics began with the Catholic left decades ago, is 80 years old. She has evolved to be a moderate Democrat. Since 2020, Ohio Republicans have redistricted and redistricted again to oust her from Congress. They could not do it in 2022 or 2024. Can they do it with former State Rep Derek Merrin, the kind of guy who attempted to water down protections for renters against lead paint? There are no recent polls. She is well ahead in the financial race, having raised $4.3 million and begun July 1 with $3.5 million available. He raised only $1.5 million and had only $500,000 on July 1. You can still help out and DONATE to her campaign. See Len’s Political Note #718.
Wisconsin 01: Mitchell Berman is the most recent Democrat to target this district once represented by Paul Ryan, now represented by Bryan Steil. Maybe this time Democratic targeting will not be futile. Nate Silver includes the district among the closest races. Mitchell Berman’s dad built a roofing business, his mom worked in a factory. Mitchell Berman was the first in the family to attend college. He became an emergency room nurse. His first venture into politics was as an angry parent – protesting his local school board’s firing the local school principal because he was gay. At least that was the way it seemed. They acted in a meeting that violated the open meeting law. Mitchell Berman’s run for congress has been grounded in the Big Beautiful Bill’s consequences for health care – cuts in Medicaid, in support for ACA insurance premium subsidies, in cutbacks that will lead to consolidation of hospitals. His focus is relentless and, in this political world dominated by Trump, Bryan Steil cannot quite escape that focus by pressing his business and trade policies. An August poll of Likely Voters had Steil leading 49-48. Steil’s lead in the financial race is a lot bigger than that. On July 22, Steil had $6.3 million available to spend on his campaign. Mitchell Berman had $150,000. You can give up or you can consider that nearly EVEN poll and DONATE to Mitchell Berman.
Wisconsin 03: Rebecca Cooke lost to Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden in 2024 by a little more than 11,000 votes. That’s a close race. This time the Cook prognosticator sees Wisconsin 01 as a Toss-up. Rebecca Cooke grew up on a dairy farm. She has been a small businesswoman, run a non-profit, and made enough of a dent in Wisconsin politics to be appointed to a commission that meets in Madison. MAGA – oriented Derrick Van Orden has become more well-known than last time for his bullying behavior in Washington, exemplified by his yelling at Congressional interns annual viewing of the Capital Dome. He thought it unseemly that the interns would be lying down on the job with binoculars and other viewing aids. Help Rebecca Cooke, DONATE to her campaign. See Len’s Political Note #767.
