Len’s Letter #86 After the Deluge
November 9, 2026
56 Democratic Senators
260 or so Democratic Members of Congress
The people who saw it were cautious about proclaiming it.
- On November 3, the polls, were right. The Democratic victory was substantial
Today the US Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Today, the House of Representatives has 218 +1 Republicans, and 214 Democrats. On January 3, 2o27 the US Senate will probably have 56 Senators in the Democratic Caucus. The Republicans will have 44 Senators in their conference.
On November 1, relying on the weighted aggregated polls for FiftyPlusOne you could see that Democrats led in all 7 of the toss up races: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Michigan would go Democratic. If those leads were fulfilled, Democrats would have a 54 seat majority. Six have proved accurate. Alaska is still counting but a Republican victory there is unlikely. For ranked choice voting, it appears that people who voted for the “other” Dan Sullivan were not confused. Their second choice, by and large, was Mary Peltola. (See Len’s Political Note #853. The Closest Races.)
On November 1 there were two more groups of states to consider. One victory from each of those groups that would increase the majority from 54 to 56.
Group 1: States with strong Independent candidates — Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota had encouraging signs. None of those states came through for the independents. Robert Hubbell says the independents should have run as Democrats.
Group 2: Southern states — Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and, the most likely of all, South Carolina. Those states will provide the two additional two seats. South Carolina was announced relatively early. Unless there are shenanigans, Mississippi will, too. What’s more, Democrats came close to a 58 vote majority. Republicans kept the Florida Senate seat 51-48 and the Louisiana Senate seat 51-49.
Knowing a Senate victory was coming on November 1 did not require prescience. To get a picture of the scope of the Senate victory required looking at the weighted, aggregate polls that FiftyPlusOne put together.
The House had already been declared by prognosticators. In mid-October, preparing for a discussion group, I looked at the “Toss Up Races” identified by the leading pundits who let you look at their projections for free. I guessed 230 Democratic seats without looking at the “Leans” or the “likelys.” Even if I had looked, I would not have anticipated the 260 seats Democrats are now approaching.
In preparing, for my November 1 piece, I looked at the weighted, aggregate polls that FiftyPlusOne had put together. I looked at Governor races as well as Senate races. There was a strong possibility for Democratic Governor wins in Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, and Ohio. On a whim, I added Texas to my list. They all elected Democratic governors.
Never. Not once. Did I suggest that state legislatures would flip. Five new Democratic trifectas were created. Ten Republican legislative chambers were flipped – in places you wouldn’t believe. Gerrymandered Texas and Ohio were among them.
- Why did this happen?
First: The economy: Donald Trump and the Republicans made the same mistake Joe Biden did. Using national general figures, they tried to tell Americans inflation was not so bad. Whether it was the price of eggs or the price of beef. Outside of the grocery store, it was the price of gas and diesel. Trump devotees on X now threaten: if gas isn’t down by $2, if beef isn’t down by $1 …. Then. What? I have no idea what they are threatening.
Second: Governancet: Trump asked voters to act as if he were on the ballot. They did. His magic touch seems gone except among his strongest devotees. People have concluded that Trump is dangerous, even criminal – whether it is in the bedroom, in the boardroom, or in whatever room politicians are caucusing in. The Epstein Files never did get published. We only get glimpses of the Trump’s corrupt Presidential financial gains. We know the War with Iran and the economic wars with Canada and others do us no good.
Third: The Iran War and the economic wars and tariffs: See the paragraphs above – the economy and Trump’s unilateralism.
Fourth: Immigration and ICE: Adapting the words of one Texan: I supported Trump. He was going to deport criminals. Instead, he deported my brother in law.
When millions of people live in fear of the government, you cannot expect their political support. Expect them to change the government as quickly as possible.
- And what happens now? Here are two Examples of what has happened recently
- United Kingdom
On July 5, 2024, the Guardian reported that Labour had gained 211 seats in the recent election. They had won a total of 412 seats out of a Parliament of 650. The Conservative Party has lost 252 seats and was down to 121. Labour won that enormous victory even though it received only one third of the popular vote. Multiple parties had collected a lot of votes, but not enough in enough constituencies to win many seats.
This was a big opportunity for the Labour Party and its leader Keir Starmer They failed to take advantage of that opportunity. A significant non-elected staffer in the government reflected: “You have to deliver quite quickly for people … to see the change quickly, and I think we didn’t come in with enough of a theory about how we would do that, and why that was important,”
A party that won in part because of the scandals of the Conservative government was embarrassed by minor scandals. Gifts of Taylor Swift concert tickets became big news. The policy shifts were worse. People expected a Labour government to be a Labour government. Instead, having promised no tax increases, they attempted to solve the budget deficit by cutting welfare expenditures. They were seen as callous and un-Labour . Finally, the government made an embarrassing nomination. Peter Mandelson, seen as a Trump and Epstein chum was proposed, unsuccessfully, as ambassador to the United States.
On September 1, 2025, Starmer resigned. He was replaced by the Mayor of Manchester who will have a fresh start, but without the benefit gained of the confidence the Labour. Party had from an overwhelming election victory.
- Hungary
On April 12, 2026, the previously minor party Tisza, led by Peter Magyar, a former member of Victor Orban’s Fidesz party, won 141 seats to Orban’s Fidesz’s 52 seats in Hungary’s 199 member parliament.
Victor Orban’s government, much like Donald Trump’s in the United States, was populist and authoritarian at the same time. Corrupt, ignoring the rule of law, Hungary’s government served Putin’s interests in the European Union Parliament. At home, the government controlled the opposition, the press, the universities, and other centers of authority. Orban described Hungary as an “illiberal state.”
Magyar organized his new government in ways that symbolized renewal after 16 years of Orban. The inauguration was held in a public square. They restored the European Union flag to a place of honor, but did not eliminate the flag of an Hungarian ethnic group that sought separation from Serbia. A Roma children’s chorus sang the Roma anthem. The Prime Minister’s office was moved from a relatively distant monastery to government buildings near parliament. In this new government, Hungarian nationalism would coexist with internationalism and diversity. Authority was brought closer to the people.
Constitutional changes were made quickly. Prime Minister term limits barred Orban’s return in that role. The mostly ceremonial President was replaced, but not with Peter Magyar’s first choice. The judiciary was reorganized, restoring pre-Orban rules. Age limits and term limits for the court were introduced and led to personnel changes.
Parliamentary term limits were initiated. Accountability was restored – in part through the revitalization of the National Asset and Recovery Office. They planned to recover stolen assets. International changes included a rapprochement with Kyiv, while protecting the Hungarian population in that country. Peter Magyar’s government retained Hungary’s fierce opposition to immigrants. His Hungary remained one of Europe’s strongest opponents to immigrants.
The government’s popularity, according to polls, remains high. Whether that continues as the government turns to dealing with its substantial budget deficit is yet to be seen.
C, What about us?
If it were up to me, I would take Jeffries and Schumer on a road trip of town halls with the public and sit-downs with the newly elected. I would bring them to the sites of victories – South Carolina, Kansas, Texas. even Alaska.
Symbolic acts are important. Avoid unpopular steps that are out of character or resemble the previous regime.
November and December are not good times for Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer to take vacations. They have work to do. If they don’t like my proposed symbolic acts, find their own.
Trump says he would like to avoid vetoes. Maybe, but this is someone whose idea of winning in life is to delay and delay and Democrats need action. Better for the Democrats to quickly show the country what they would do if they had an agreeable President. Let him veto their bills.
Impeachments? Think like a prosecutor and like a politician. Prosecutors do not take cases to trial unless they expect a conviction. Are there clear constitutional violations that can be addressed quickly, gain all 56 Democratic Senate votes, and win 11 Republican votes? If there are, proceed with impeachment. If not, don’t do it.
