October 29th, 2026 Len’s Political Note #852 Sweep the Southwest
Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico
Democrats are dominant in New Mexico. They are competitive in Arizona and Nevada.
ARIZONA
Governor: Inc Katie Hobbs is a former social worker who, in that role, was the chief compliance officer for one of the largest centers for victims of domestic violence in the country. An interest in politics moved her from the candidate training organization Emerge to being a delegate for Hillary Clinton to the state legislature and to election as Secretary of State. As Secretary of State she was critical of the chain of custody in the state legislature-funded audit of the Arizona 2020 Presidential election results.
Next she ran for Governor
In 2022, Katie Hobbs defeated far right news anchor Kari Lake after refusing to debate her primary opponents as well as Lake. Katie Hobbs has not had a controversy-free tenure, but she leads former Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Biggs in every October poll: 49-45, 50-44, 51-36. And 49-43. The second of those polls was Republican funded.
In addition to the polling edge Katie Hobbs has been outspending Biggs $17 million to $5 million according to a mid-October report. Cook describes the race as Lean Democratic as does Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Inside elections calls the Democratic Lean only a Tilt. They see something I don’t – perhaps they are taking into account the solid knot of MAGA Republicans who control the state Republican Party. I suggest Katie Hobbs is a Likely winner. So would the betting site Kalshi which gives her a 91% likelihood of winning. An October 15 news report suggested a poll found her leading 51-34. If you want to greater certainty of her victory, DONATE to her campaign. If you want to learn a little more about her, see Len’s Political Note #712.
Attorney General: Kris Mayes is the Arizona Attorney General by the skin of her teeth. In 2022, she won by 208 votes out of 2,512,390 total votes. A gay woman, a former journalist, a former law professor, and a former Corporation Council, appointed and then elected to oversee energy issues in the state, for much of the campaign, she appeared to be headed toward another close race in 2026. One recent poll found her tied at 45 with State Senate President Warren Petersen, a moving force behind the 2020 election audit that Katie Hobbs criticized.
Kris Mayes has not been daunted by her close win or the possibility of a close race in 2026. She had 18 people who claimed to be Arizona’s electors in 2020 indicted for signing a false certificate. When Donald Trump, criticized Liz Cheney for being a war hawk, Kris Mayes investigated his statement “let’s see how she feels about it…. when the guns are trained on her face “ to see whether that was a death threat.
Otherwise, she was a Democratic state Attorney General – joining 39 lawsuits against the administration, initiating an anti-trust suit against Kroger’s acquisition of Albertsons. She is valuable to Arizona and the nation. If you give to only one statewide candidate in Arizona, Kris Mayes would be the right one. I say that even though the same October 15 news report suggested the race was no longer even, that Kris Mays was leading by 15 points. DONATE. And see Len’s Political Note #714.
Secretary of State: Incumbent Adrian Fontes led his opponent 46-44 in that same poll that Katie Hobbs led 49-43 and Kris Mayes was tied at 45. As the Democratic candidate for Secretary of State and the former Maricopa County Recorder (That’s Phoenix, the country’s 5th largest city after New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston), Adrian Fontes became a leader among the country’s Secretaries of State. He had to deal with Arizona’s continuing effort to relitigate the 2020 presidential election.
Adrian Fontes’ family came to what is now Arizona over 300 years ago – around the time that Delaware separated from Pennsylvania, Georgia was founded as a colony, and the Carolina Colony divided into North and South. Adrian Fontes was a prosecutor and an attorney in private practice before running for Maricopa County Recorder – moved in part by claims of suppression of Hispanic voters. He was elected in 2016, defeated in 2020, then elected Secretary of State in 2022.
In 2026, Adrian Fontes’ opponent is State Rep and extremist, but intellectual attorney Alex Kolodin. Kolodin filed lawsuits to overturn the 2020 election results. He represented the CyberNinjas who conducted the state legislature funded audit. Kolodin defended challenges to the election audit. He sued to end no-excuse mail in ballots. He represented Congressman Gosar when there was an effort to keep him off the ballot. He represented Trump attorney Sydney Powell who was indicted along with the eighteen. None of these legal roles got him into trouble. Helping Sydney Powell create the fraudulent electoral college delegation was problematic. The Arizona Bar admonished him for that.
Like the Governor’s race and the Attorney General race, the race for Secretary of State is between candidates who are strongly Democratic and Republicans who are ideological. And like the other races, according to the October 15 news report, he was leading by a lot – in his case by more than 11 points. DONATE to Adrian Fontes. See Len’s Political Note #773
State Treasurer: Democrat Nick Mansour was trained as an electrical engineer, had a career as an entrepreneur mostly in education and workforce development. His first priority is to achieve more resources for education without raising taxes. His opponent, Elijah Norton is a self-made millionaire, creating businesses in finance and insurance. He describes himself as a conservative. He would shrink the size of government after uncovering what he believes to be large areas of waste and fraud. According to the October 15 news report, Nick Mansour was leading in a poll by 9 points. DONATE to Nick Mansour.
Supt of Public Instruction: Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz was a public school math teacher for 25 years before teaching in a community college. The college promoted her to various administrative jobs before making her President. She is committed to improved funding for Arizona Public Schools. Republican Kimberly Yee is termed out as State Treasurer and brings financial experience to the job,
The two candidates had a controversy about where their own children were schooled. Teresa Leyba Ruiz responded to questions by saying she chose to send her children to schools aligned to her religion, but did not rely on any public funding. Kimberly Lee insisted she would not talk about her children and no Arizona reporters have followed up. Help put an educator in charge of Arizona’s schools. It could be that Arizonans agree. That same October 15 news report suggests Teresa Leyba Ruiz is leading by 6 points. DONATE to Teresa Leyba Ruiz.
State Mine Inspector: Mechanical engineer Brian Matlock touts his commitment to mining safety including patents he holds on inventions that have made mining safer. Incumbent Walter “Les” Presmyk takes credit for the current expansion in Arizona’s mining industry and says “This is mining’s time to shine.” Consider a modest DONATION to the Democrat Brian Matlock.
Supreme Court Justice: A graduate of the University of Texas, Austin with a JD from Arizona State University, John Lopez IV served as a legal advisor in the prosecution of Sadam Hussein and as Arizona’s solicitor general. He was appointed to a ten-year term on the Arizona Supreme Court in 2016 and will continue as a member of the Court if he is retained by a majority of voters. In April 2024, Lopez IV authored a 4-2 decision in Planned Parenthood Arizona v Mayes finding that the state’s “territorial-era law outlawing abortion except to save the life of the mother is enforceable. An organization opposing the retention of John Lopez IV on the Arizona Supreme Court as well as a few other judges up for retention is GavelWatch. DONATE to their effort.
CONGRESS
The bedrock of American Democracy is the election to the People’s House – the United States of America’s House of Representatives. The differences between Democratic and Republican candidates in this state are stark. While almost every prognosticator predicts a Democratic majority in the House, the size of that majority is important – both for the short term of deflecting any challenges President Trump makes to those elections and for the longer term of setting limits on a President who has been acting as if he is not governed by the law.
According to the statewide poll reported above, a major reason for the Democratic lead is that Republican candidates are getting support from only something in the range of 70% of Republican voters. In Mid-October, there was still time to change the views of Republicans. Last minute donations particularly help candidates in their get out the vote effort. So I am still suggesting donations to Democratic candidates. And in Arizona, Democrats can flip three Republican seats.
AZ 01 Medical Doctor and Ex State Rep. Amish Shah is an emergency room doctor and former state legislator. He proposes to reduce taxes on the middle class and opposes Trump’s tariffs. He also proposed to reverse the cuts in Medicaid, to lower the cost of health insurance obtained through the Affordable Care Act, and to expand access to health care for all Americans. The Republican incumbent is not up for election. Instead, he ran for governor and lost in the primary.
The Republican nominee, Jay Feely, is a former professional football player, sportscaster, and education choice activist and Christian school board member. He says he would represent Arizona’s interests by protecting its water and defending the 2nd Amendment. The most recent poll is from October 1. It showed Amish Shah leading 44-42. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #828.
AZ 02. Ex-President of the Navajo Nation Jonathan Nez led his community through the pandemic and did well the ordinary things of a local leader. He improved roads and increased access to water and electricity. Jonathan Nez is running against incumbent Congressman Eli Crane. Crane was one of the six Members of Congress who led the effort to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. Crane has voted to eliminate all military aid to Ukraine and has expressed his belief those who attempted to assassinate President Trump did not act alone and, in at least one case, was acting on behalf of a foreign power. A mid-October poll showed Jonathan Nez ahead 50-48. He can flip this seat. DONATE to Jonathan Nez’ campaign. See Len’s Political Note #806
AZ 06 Retired Marine Drill instructor JoAnna Mendoza has a reasonable chance to flip a third Republican seat in Arizona. Her roles in the Marines included service as a Sargent Instructor at Officer Candidate School, victim’s advocate, and a leader for celebrity visits to the Marines. A gay woman and a single parent, she left for civilian life during which she wrote frequently about her transition and that of others to civilian life. She became Executive Director of the Arizona Center for Economic Progress and, before announcing her run for Congress, had created her own consulting firm. She is opposing incumbent Juan Ciscomani, formerly a senior advisor on Hispanic Affairs to Republican Governor Doug Ducey. As a Congressman, he has sought to be a Moderate without being uncooperative. He supported Kevin McCarthy remaining as Speaker. He opposed Trump’s efforts to downsize the Social Security Administration, joined a bi-partisan US-Mexico Caucus, but supported the Big Beautiful Bill that attacked health care access while cutting taxes, especially for the wealthy. Even though Arizona 06 is considered a toss-up (some now think it has inched over to Lean Democrat), there are no recent polls. DONATE to JoAnna Mendoza. See Len’s Political Note #762.
STATE LEGISLATURE
2026 could be the year that Arizona finally flips its state legislature from Republican to Democratic. The State Senate has 30 seats. 17 are Republicans, 13 are Democrats. Flip 3 Republican seats while retaining all Democratic seats achieves a Democratic majority. OATH suggests support for the following Democrats in the State Senate:
AZSD 02. Democrat Amelia Gallitano could flip this seat from Incumbent Shawnna Bowlick. Amelia Gallitano is a medical doctor with an MD and PhD from the University of Pennsylvania. She helped found the UAZ College of Medicine and spent nine years working with veterans with PTSD. Her first issue is the reducing the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs both of which contribute to the affordability crisis Arizonans face. Her opponent is incumbent Shawnna Bolick, a member of the Arizona Charter School Association, the Goldwater Institute, and the Alliance for School Choice. Her first issue is to limit the scope of government so that spending is restrained and budgets are balanced. DONATE TO Amelia Gallitano’s campaign.
AZSD 04. Democrat Aaron Lieberman to flip this seat. Aaron Lieberman is a businessman and entrepreneur and education advocate. His most recent business is Buzze, which provides access to electric car charging. As an advocate, he founded Jumpstart an early literacy non-profit. He also co-founded Acelero Learning designed to help preschoolers get ready for school. He is seeking to oust incumbent Carine Warner who herself ousted Democrats and was elected to a school board opposing LGBTQ and Black authors’ being read in school. She supports continuing the tip line that invites parents to report inappropriate classroom lessons.
While attending a school board meeting virtually and not realizing her mic was on, she generated opposition after mocking an overweight school district official reporting on summer food programs. DONATE to Aaron Lieberman. He will be a better Senator.
AZSD 13 Democrat Kristi O’Brien is running to flip this seat currently held by a Republican who is running for a judgeship. Kristi O’Brien is a graduate of Trinity Washington, a Catholic university in the District of Columbia and has her JD Degree from Bond University in Australia, a school that has some programs specifically for students from the United States.
After some experience in international law Kristi O’Brien returned home, chose family and divorce mediation rather than the practice of divorce law. She has been conducting mediations since 2011. She announced her candidacy and her first priority lowering costs so young families and seniors can afford to live in the District. She would particularly target housing costs, childcare costs, and unfair pricing practices. Her opponent is Republican State Rep Julie Willoughby, a trauma nurse. Willoughby’s first priority is also to deal with the affordability problem. She would do that through “responsible tax relief.” DONATE to Kristi O’Brien’s campaign.
The State House of Representatives has 60 seats. There are two House of Representatives positions within each of the 30 Legislative Districts. Voters are instructed to vote for two candidates. The top two vote getters are elected. Currently 33 seats are held by Republicans. 27 by Democrats. The route to a Democratic majority is to flip four Republican seats while retaining all Democratic seats in the House would achieve a Democratic majority. OATH suggests support for the following Democrats in the House:
AZHD 04: Two Democrats are running: Tammy Caputi and Karen Gresham. Businesswoman Tammy Caputi started Yale West Electric supply company in 2001 – selling electrical fixtures and other electric supplies. She has also served on the Scottsdale City Council. Her first priority is public safety through training and support for police and addressing the root causes of crime. During this run for House District 4, she has been receiving antisemitic death threats. Her fellow Democrat is Karen Gresham – an accountant, a school volunteer, and a school board member. Her first priority is strong schools for everyone.
They are opposing the two Republican incumbents. Pamela Carter is completing her first term as a State Rep and is proud of having proposed and passed a bill to extend the state’s Lemon Law. Her first legislative priority is to create safe communities by “Backing the Blue.” Matt Gress is a former teacher, school board member, and state budget director. He says he can bring Republicans and Democrats together for shared goals. His first priority is lower taxes and responsible budgets. DONATE to Tammy Caputi and DONATE to Karen Gresham.
AZHD 13 Two Democrats are running: Raquel “Rockee” Armstrong and Jacob Weinberg. Rockee Armstrong is a former Truman scholar, classroom teacher, school administrator, and current professor of education. Her first priority is investment in education. Jacob Weinberg joined the military after September 11 2001 and is now a Lt. Colonel in the Army National Guard. He was a senior manager at Deloitte before becoming CFO of a local software development and technology solutions company. Critical of the voucher system for its lack of accountability, Jacob Weinberg’s first priority is to ensure that every child has a quality education.
Neither of the two Republican candidates are incumbents. Kevin Hartke was the lead pastor of the Trinity Christian Fellowship before becoming Mayor of Chandler. His first priority in the legislature would be to lower taxes and reduce regulations so that small businesses can compete and create jobs. Janet Weninger has a degree in theology. For twenty years, she has been a volunteer advocate for children in the foster care system. Her first priority is border security through which Arizona families would be kept safe from “violent crime, cartels, [and] human trafficking.” DONATE TO Rockee Armstrong and DONATE to Jacob Weinberg.
NEVADA
Governor: Attorney General Aaron Ford Aaron Ford is running for Governor of Nevada. He is trying to defeat one term Republican governor Joe Lombardo.
Aaron Ford is a 53 year old, bow-tie wearing Black man. His father worked in the produce section of a supermarket but lost his job when the market decided to abandon Texas. Not long after that, Aaron Ford’s dad abandoned his family.
Aaron Ford got some help. He was a beneficiary of Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty. “Upward Bound,” was crucial for helping him succeed in school – despite his family’s financial troubles and his responsibilities for his younger siblings while their mother worked.
Aaron Ford’s “Upward Bound” experience led him to college. He went to Texas A & M, the first in his family to go to college. His adjustment to college life was not smooth. His girlfriend had a baby while he was at Texas A & M. He took responsibility for the baby and became the boy’s single dad. His eventual wife, Berna Rhodes-Ford shared that parental responsibility.
Together, they went on to Austin where she went to law school at the University of Texas and he taught school while they were there. Together, they moved to Washington DC where he taught school and got a Master’s Degree from George Washington University. Together, they moved to Columbus, Ohio where he had his eye on getting a doctorate at Ohio State and, perhaps, starting a chain of charter schools. He got a Master’s Degree and a Doctorate in school administration. He saw value in a law degree and got one of those from Ohio State, too. Together, they moved Michigan where she had a clerkship. And together they moved to Nevada where they both worked as lawyers and he became involved in the community.
They lived the life of prosperous young attorneys, more prosperous than they actually were. They fell behind in paying taxes and earned some notoriety for that.
Aaron Ford ran for the state Senate. Winning the second time he ran. Aaron Ford had found his profession. As a member of the Nevada legislature, Aaron Ford was named the legislature’s “rookie of the year” by the Reno newspaper and Freshman of the year by a Las Vegas paper. He was elected Minority Leader in the 2015 legislative and became majority leader after that.
As Majority Leader, Aaron Ford helped pass legislation that combatted elder abuse, increased price transparency for big pharma medications, increased criminal penalties for those who targeted first responders, and sought to reduce recidivism through improved education, mental health and substance abuse programs for the incarcerated.
In 2018, Aaron Ford won a very close race for Attorney General. Once elected, he fought the Trump administration, focusing on environmental regulations. He argued the Trump administration’s roll back of clean car standards endangered people’s health and their lives. During his term in office, he grew more popular and won reelection in 2022 by 8 points.
Joe Lombardo’s Trumpishness gave Aaron Ford an incentive and an opportunity. In responding to Lombardo, he creates a connection with ordinary Nevadans.: “I know what it’s like to feel like you’re pushing a rock up a hill in the fight for a better life. And families all across Nevada are feeling it, too …It feels like the deck is stacked against them. And you know what? It is. I’m fighting for the kind of government that sees people like I was and says, ‘you matter.’”
The polls are extremely close. In September and Early October: Ford 44-42, Lombardo 42-40. In two Democratic polls funded in October: Lombardo 48-47, Lombardo 43-42. Lombardo has had a substantial fund-raising advantage – largely through substantial donations by billionaire donors to him and to PACs. Aaron Ford’s support has largely been through small donors, though he has had help from labor unions and some PACs. Help him in these last moments with funds that can be used to get the vote out. DONATE to Aaron Ford’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #745.
Lt. Governor candidates run separately in Nevada. The Democratic candidate is Assembly Majority Leader Sandra Jauragui. She is one of many Nevada political leaders who worked, however briefly, for the late US Senator and Majority Leader Harry Reid. She was a survivor of the 2017 Las Vegas shooting, still the deadliest mass shooting in US history. Elected to an open seat in the Assembly in 2018, she has been a persistent advocate for gun safety. A red flag bill that also banned bump stocks was signed into law. Governor Joe Lombardo has vetoed two other bills she advocated – one that banned guns from 100 yards of a polling place, the other to raise the legal age for purchasing an assault rifle from 18 to 21. Her opponent is Stavros Anthony, he has a doctorate in sociology from the University of Nevada Las Vegas. A former Captain in the Las Vegas police department, he has been a member of the Las Vegas City Council. DONATE to Sandra Jauragui’s campaign.
Attorney General: State Sen Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro is a local. Her BA is from Nevada, Reno; her JD from UNLV. She worked for a long time in the Las Vegas District Attorney’s office, then left to practice law on her own. She was elected to the state senate in 2018 and elected majority leader in 2019. In her website, she notes that, leading the State Senate, “she passed laws to ban AI generated child pornography, made it harder for domestic abusers to get guns, protected seniors with tougher laws on identity theft, and gave law enforcement better tools to fight high-level drug trafficking.” She adds that she helped prevent layoffs of what could have been 25% of the Las Vegas Metro Police’s officers. Her opponent is Adriana Guzman Fralick, the Chair of the state Cannabis Board. She claims that Nicole Cannizzaro has been soft on crime. For proof, she points to the increase in the threshold for felony theft from $650 to $1,200. I’m not persuaded. DONATE to Nicole Cannizzaro.
Secretary of State: Democrat Cisco Aguilar is the incumbent. His opponent is Ex State Assemblyman Jim Marchant. Marchant is an election denier. He believes that Donald Trump won the 2020 election and was robbed of that victory by way of fraud. He adds to that belief. He ran for Congress, won the Republican primary, and lost the general election to incumbent Steve Horsford. Despite losing by almost 5%, Jim Marchant claims he lost the race through fraud. He lost his lawsuit too, but still insists the election was fraudulent.
Jim Marchant would eliminate voting by mail, eliminate all early voting, eliminate all electronic voting. He would replace electronic voting with hand counted ballots. He still believes that electronic voting machines are susceptible to fraud, that the 2020 fraud that defeated Donald Trump was a product of the use of the Venezuelan-based Dominion Voting System machines.
.Cisco Aguilar has been a lawyer and a businessman with a particular interest in sports. He was trained for politics by a partisan Democrat. After he got his degrees from the University of Arizona (BA, JD, MBA), Cisco Aguilar worked as a law clerk for Harry Reid, the US Senator from Nevada and, depending on the vote count, the minority leader or the majority leader in the Senate.
After his work with Harry Reid, Cisco Aguilar was general counsel for the Nevada system of higher education. He served on a variety of boards and became head of Agassi Graf, a management company in the name of two international tennis stars. He also personally owns a sports technology company.
Cisco Aguilar decided he could turn to electoral politics. By 2024, having been elected Nevada’s Secretary of State, he dealt with complaints about illegal voting. His office investigated 180 claims of double voting. Most were accidents of one kind or another, but 8 cases were turned over to the Attorney General.
The Nevada Secretary of State did its work, there was no wide-spread voter fraud. Cisco Aguilar’s office investigated every complaint because, as they said, every violation is a serious matter. We should expect every Secretary of State’s office to undertake these kinds of investigations. So far, there has not been a shred of evidence of wide-spread violations in Nevada or in any other state.
Cisco Aguliar is running for reelection in 2026. He is running as someone who knows how to do the job in the right way. He will need your support whether he faces Jim Marchant again. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #801
State Treasurer: With a doctorate in Public Policy, Tya Mathis-Coleman has been Deputy Treasurer for six years and a staffer in the Treasury Department for even longer. She is an adjunct instructor at UNLV and is conscious of the need to take care of Nevada’s resources and to find new sources of revenue to support various funds. Her opponent Jason Andrew “Drew” Johnson founded and led a think tank, now known as the Beacon Center of Tennessee. The Foundation supported the repeal of Tennessee’s estate tax, changes in the state’s tort laws that would limit the ability to file law suits, the introduction of school choice, and a constitutional prohibition of an income tax. Drew Johnson earned a reputation as a government waste specialist. DONATE to Tya Mathis-Coleman. She has a depth of knowledge likely to be helpful as State Treasurer. She will not do harm. DONATE.
CONGRESS
Nevada has four Congressional Districts. For redistricting in 2022, one of the three Democratic Members of Congress complained that her district was no longer safe. The legislative majority, responding to Senator Reid’s willingness to take risks, created three districts with narrow Democratic majoritird and a fourth which appeared to be clearly Republican. The Cook Political Report describes Nevada 01, 03, and 04 all as Likely Democrat.
There is no reason to think that Nina Titus (NV 01), who came to Nevada to teach history at a university, that Susie Lee (NV 03), who came to Nevada to care for the city of Las Vegas’s water supply, married a senior figure in one of the hotels and became a philanthropist, or Steven Horsford (NV 04), who spent his youth caring for his fragile mother and got his start in politics with the support of the Culinary Workers are in any jeopardy this year. For several months, there was some worry about the challenge to Susie Lee (See Len’s Political Note #770). No longer.
For a variety of reasons, the apparent Blue Wave among them, NV 02 is not necessarily following expectations.
NV 02. Ex State House Majority Leader Theresa Benitez-Thompson is the Democratic nominee. The Republican incumbent, Mark Amodei retires at the end of his term. The Republican nominee to replace him is David Flippo a financial advisor from Las Vegas. Nevada 02 encompasses most of Nevada north of Las Vegas. Mark Amodei made a career out of explaining that Nevada 02 was not Las Vegas. David Flippo lives in Las Vegas and Mark Amodei does not approve. Buying a home well within Nevada 02 does not wash David Flippo clean. Furthermore, David Flippo has claimed he was awarded a Bronze Star implying that the award was for bravery. Bronze stars for bravery are rare and that is not what David Flippo was awarded.
Mark Amodei will not endorse David Flippo. In fact, he says he says he won’t vote for him. Whlle Mark Amodei is likely to vote for an independent candidate, the quality of the Democratic candidate is another factor. State House Majority Leader Theresa Benitez-Thompson is articulate (in high school, she won Junior Achievement’s speech contest), attractive (she was a Miss Nevada), and diligent. Her colleagues voted her Majority Leader because she simply learns what the legislative proposals actually say. Her colleagues also appreciate how she treats each of them as human beings. Mimi Racker’s May 17th piece about Theresa Benitez-Thompson in the Nevada Independent is worth reading. DONATE to this candidate who would be the first Democrat to be elected to Congress from Nevada 02.
STATE LEGISLATURE
The Nevada State Senate has 27 seats: 13 Democrats, 8 Republicans
The Nevada Assembly has 42 seats: 27 Democrats and 15 Republicans.
Like Arizona, Nevada has Legislative districts which elect state Senators. Nested within that Legislative district, both states elect two members of their Assembly. What is different, is that Arizona elects the two top vote getters; Nevada has separate districts for Assembly Members within the Legislative District.
Nevada is not Arizona. Nevada’s legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic; Arizona’s is slightly Republican, so slight that it could become slightly Democratic in this election.
NEW MEXICO
There have been two polls for governor of New Mexico. Deb Haaland, the former US Interior Secretary under Joe Biden leads Republican Mayor Gregg Hull 47-41 and 49-42 in polls taken in late September and early October. That is not an overwhelming lead, but it is enough.
There are no polls for the Attorney General race, but onpointspolitics says Democrat Raul Torrez is nearly certain to win the race.
MultiState Elections says Democratic County Clerk Amanda Lopez Askin is likely to win election. I believe them. You should, too.
Onpointpolitics says that Democrat incumbent Joseph Maestas is all but certain to win his race for State Auditor.
Onpointpolitics says the same about Democratic incumbent State Treasurer Laura Montoya
MultiState elections says environmental consultant, State Democratic Party Vice Chair, and 13th generation New Mexican Juan Sanchez is likely to win the election.
There is no reason for me to urge you to donate to these candidates.
US SENATE
A late September poll had incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Lujan leading Republican Businessman Larry Marker. 54-36. An early October poll had Ben Ray Lujan leading 53-37. This is no contest.
CONGRESS
NM 01 A poll reported in mid-October had Incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury leading Businesswoman Didi Okpareke. 53-35. This is no contest.
NM 03. A poll reported in mid-October had incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernanez leading Republican state rep Martin Zamora 53-39. This is no contest.
NM 02 A poll reported in Mid-October had incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez leading Retired Republican Police Officer Greg Cunningham 48-44. This is a contest. Greg Cunningham joined the marines out of high school. When he returned home, he joined the Albuquerque police department. During the next 20 years, he rose to be a detective. After those 20 years, he served as a detective in a county sheriff’s office for two years and then, a little like on television or in the movies, he became a private investigator for 14 ½ years. In 2023, he began consulting with Bode Aviation. None of which explains how it is that he turned to a run for Congress. The closest he comes is comments about how he took on cartels, gangs, and violent crime. His first priority on his website is to keep the border secure, though he does not explain what he means by that. Or was the aviation connection some kind of preparation for his run for Congress?
Gabe Vasquez was born in El Paso Texas and grew up in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. He fished and hunted with his grandfather and helped out in his grandfather’s television repair shop. He went to high school in El Paso and to college at New Mexico State in Las Cruces, the city which became his home as an adult.
In college, Gabe Vasquez majored in journalism and was editor-in-chief of the student newspaper. Out of college, he became business editor for the Las Cruces Bulletin, executive director of the city’s Hispanic Chamber of Commers, and a local business’s vice president for public relations.
Gabe Vasquez followed his interest in politics working as a field rep for Senator Martin Heinrich and found his core vision as a kind of blue-collar environmentalist working for the New Mexico Wildlife Federation, the Wilderness Society, and as deputy director of federal lands for the Western Conservation Foundation. In 2017, he was elected to the Las Cruces city council.
In the years before Gabe Vasquez ran for Congress, in his several roles, he grew to understand business, developed a commitment to reducing racial and other inequities, and became focused on the climate crisis.
Gabe Vasquez helped found Nuestra Tierra Conservation Project in 2017 which provides “communities of color with sustainable opportunities for community engagement, access and education around public lands and waters…”. He was instrumental in the creation of the Outdoor Equity Fund which began to award grants in 2020; grants toward ensuring that “access to the outdoors would be low-cost and available for all New Mexicans.” Although these projects created jobs and new businesses, his business-oriented ambition was best expressed by the Outdoor Equity Fund’s Incubator and Accelerator … which awarded grants to support “early stage outdoor businesses.
In Congress, Gabe Vasquez introduced legislation to make teachers in tribal schools eligible for federal pensions, a benefit intended to alleviate a shortage of teachers in those schools. He voted to require health care workers to have received the Covid vaccine, supported the Tik Tok ban based on China’s access to user information, and, after Joe Biden’s disastrous debate, was among the first to call for the President to withdraw from his campaign for reelection.
In Congress, Gabe Vasquez has been able to find clever solutions where ordinary ones would not work. As with federal pensions for teachers in tribal schools, he helped bridge the differences between farmers and preservationists by supporting a plan to compensate farmers for livestock killed by wolves.
During Gabe Vasquez’s tenure as a Member of Congress, New Mexico, especially New Mexico’s 2ndCongressional District, has become a fossil fuel power. In response to that change, Gabe Vasquez has focused on ensuring decent pay for those working in oil and gas fields, paying special attention to the health impacts on workers and their families from the fossil fuel jobs. Gabe Vasquez has not become a shill for the oil industry. He is committed to expanding clean energy in New Mexico. He has helped bring his state the manufacture of solar panels, wind towers, the creation of electric truck charging stations, and the capture and storage of energy. All the while, he has been focused on keeping energy costs low in New Mexico. Keep Gabe Vasquez in Congress. DONATE. See Len’a Political Note #755
STATE LEGISLATURE
New Mexico’s State has 42 seats: 26 Democrats, 16 Republicans
New Mexico’s House of Representatives has 70 seats: 44 Democrats, 26 Republicans
Like Nevada, New Mexico is not Arizona. Like Nevada, New Mexico’s legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic; Arizona’s is slightly Republican, so slight that it could become slightly Democratic in this election.
