September 19th, 2026 Len’s Political Note #839 Bob Harvie Pennsylvania 01
2026 General Election
I began writing about Bob Harvie in January of this year. Then I stopped. It was not clear that he would be competitive. Instead, I wrote a piece about Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan’s 8th Congressional District. She was an incumbent who appeared to need some help.
The political world has changed since January. The Cook Report now sees McDonald Rivet as a Likely Democratic winner. She should be shifted to Solid Democratic. Trump’s pick for the Republican primary was defeated by Tom Smith. A political unknown, Thomas J. Smith had raised no money and dropped out of the race months before the primary. He may have been as surprised to win the primary as everyone else. Democrat Kristin McDonald Rivet will be returning to Washington. While there are plenty of Smiths in Washington, none of them will be Thomas J.
I wrote, in my draft in January: “Bob Harvie believes he can win this race”. I added. “Even though there are as many registered Democrats as there are registered Republican in the district, the pundits see the race as Likely Republican. “ The Cook Report still lists Pennsylvania 01 as Likely Republican. Nate Silver, on the other hand, lists this race as among the closest Congressional races in the country.
What I wrote in my draft in January works for today:
“The incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick knows that this is a dangerous year for him. With the Republican President’s approval rating declining, when the President’s Big Beautiful proposal was just short of a majority and the leadership and the president were scrounging for a very few Republican Congressmen, Brian Fitzpatrick went into hiding. He did not want to be found and be somehow persuaded to vote for the bill? Or forced to vote for the bill? Or shamed into voting for the bill? He came out of hiding briefly, voted no, and disappeared again.
Bob Harvie can campaign on Brian Fitzpatrick’s preference for hiding from Donald Trump rather than opposing him visibly when Trump is damaging the country. Few Republicans have been bothered by Fitzpatrick’s repeatedly getting challenged on ethical issues for using taxpayer’s money for his campaign.
After working for the FBI and serving as an assistant US Attorney, Brian Fitzpatrick is running for his sixth term after replacing his brother Mike who had promised to term-limit himself to eight years in Congress. Brian Fitzpatrick keeps on winning by digit per cents high single digits or more. Bob Harvie would have to meet the overperformance standard of 13% set by Democrats in special elections. If I were organizing advertisements for Bob Harvie I would try one based on the children’s game hide and seek.
Bob Harvie is a local. Born and raised in Bristol, Pennsylvania, Bob Harvie left Bucks County to attend George Washington University and came back to Pennsylvania to get a Master’s Degree in Education from Holy Family University in Philadelphia. Then he went to work teaching social studies at Bucks County Technical High school.”
Bob Harvie taught at the tech school for twenty years. While he was there, he organized an effort to bring veterans into school to talk about their experiences in wars from World War II to the war against terror. He brought these experiences alive for kids who came to a vocational school, at least in part, because they did not love the book learning that was central to academic high schools.
While teaching, Bob Harvie was comfortable with a bit of a political life as well. He lived in Falls Township and served on its Planning Commission. In 2003, he was elected to the Board of Supervisors and became its chair in 2008. From his perspective, at least, a major part of the job was to restore civility to the political conversations of the Supervisors. He remained chair, sustaining a civil environment, until 2020. In 2019, he tried politics at a new level. He was elected to be one of the three Bucks County’s Board of Commissioners. Bucks County, with its 650,000 people is a touch smaller than a typical Congressional district and is Pennsylvania’s fourth largest county. It is a relatively wealthy suburb of Philadelphia and the state’s third wealthiest county. Two of the Commissioners are Democrats, one is a Republican. Bob Harvie has shifted from Chair to Vice Chair of the County Commissioners and back.
His effort to run for Congress is a step into a still larger world. Decrying an administration which has made life fun for Elon Musk, Bob Harvie says his is running “because he believes our country is failing to live up to its promise – and working families are paying the price. While people work longer and harder just to stay afloat, Washington is stuck in chaos, ignoring the struggles of everyday Americans.”
Bob Harvie would lower the age at which people can buy into Medicare to 55. He would cut taxes for the middle class, raise them for corporations and the very wealthy. He would “work to overturn Citizens United” and ban corporate PACs. He would roll back Trump’s tariffs and raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour.
He’s got an economic plan that would fit right into the goals of a Democratic Congress which he would be part of in January, 2027 if he is elected. To achieve these goals and more, he’ll need that Democratic Congress and a Democratic President elected in 2028.
Help Bob Harvie step up to Congress. Two Democratic funded polls in August found Bob Harvie trailing Brian Fitzpatrick – by 49-48 in the most recent poll, by 47-43 in the other. Bob Harvie was trailing the incumbent Congressman by a lot more in funds available on June 30. Fitzpatrick had $6.4 million; Bob Harvie had $800,000. DONATE to Bob Harvie’s campaign. Help him raise enough to compete.
Here are toss-up and close House races in the northeast:
Maine 2: State Auditor Matt Dunlop was not the DCCC’s preference in the primary. Nor was he the preference of Democrats who believed this District, the most conservative in the country to elect a Democrat, needed a moderate to conservative Democrat to replace retiring Conservative Democrat Jared Golden. Maine Democrats disagreed. In the first round of the four person primary, Matt Dunlop came in second with 29.2% of the vote. After ranked choice, which Maine uses for Congressional elections, was completed. State Auditor Matt Dunlop had more than 50% of the vote and was the nominee. Now, Matt Dunlop is in one of the country’s closest Congressional races according to Nate Silver. Matt Dunlop has been an advocate for fisheries (shades of Alaska’s Mary Peltola) and for hunters. He modernized the Secretary of State’s office when he was in that role. He is running against retrograde former governor Paul Page who describes himself as the first coming of Donald Trump. This may not be a great year for a candidate who makes a Trump claim. Trump is unpopular in Maine these days. The only recent poll for the Congressional race was in July and was funded by Democrats. Matt Dunlop led 49-48. Matt Dunlop trails in the financial race by a much larger margin. After a tough primary, on June 30, Matt Dunlap had $200,000 to Paul Page’s $1.7 million. DONATE to Matt Dunlop. He needs every dime you can contribute.
New Jersey 07: Navy Veteran Rebecca Bennett served in the Navy for fifteen years, most of that time as a helicopter pilot and an aircraft commander, some of it getting an MBA from the Wharton School. Out of the service, she worked in health care – a project manager for Johnson & Johnson, Vice President for Midi Health and then Oshi Health. Now she has brought her knowledge of the military and of health care to a run for Congress that she ought to win. She would make New Jersey more affordable by cutting red tape to make home construction easier and by restoring the SALT tax deduction. She’d improve the economy by supporting clean energy and ensuring that the Gateway Tunnel gets built, and improve health care by restoring funds that supported health care. Republican Tom Kean Jr., who would ordinarily be a formidable foe, has made himself a target by absenting himself from Congress for months. When he finally returned, he announced that the issue was depression, though he was not too depressed to invest in the stock market. There are no recent polls. One of Tom Keane Jr.’s advantages is in campaign finance. He raised $4.9 million and had $3.6 million remaining on June 30. Rebecca Bennett raised $4.3 million, but after a tough primary had $1.4 million remaining on that same date. Help Rebecca Bennett raise enough money to keep competing effectively. DONATE to her campaign.
New York 17: Former National Security Council Official Cait Conley served in the military for 16 years. After working as an MP, she spent more than a decade in special operations – as a team leader and group commander of counterterrorism task forces. After leaving active duty and after working in the private sector, she became a senior advisor to the Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency where she also became the leading figure in the agency for coordinating election security with state and local election officials for the 2024 election. Someone should ask her about Donald Trump and the Post Office. Or ask her about that wily politician, the Republican incumbent Michael Lawler. Cait Conley’s response would be to tell you not to believe what Mike Lawler says, that he is a “professional liar” whose loyalty to Donald Trump is unquestioned. When a photo surfaced of Mike Lawler wearing a Michael Jackson costume and blackface at a college Halloween party, he explained the costume was “truly the sincerest form of flattery, a genuine homage to my musical hero since I was a little kid trying to moonwalk through my mom’s kitchen. The ugly practice of blackface was the furthest thing from my mind.” Truth telling? Lying? Homage? Or a quick-thinking response to what might otherwise have been a problematic bit of publicity. The available polls are from July. In late July, Lawler led 50-45. In early July, Cait Conley led 51-45. Lawler has raised $8.2 million. He continued spending though he had no primary opposition and had $4.8 million available on June 30. Cait Conley raised $4.3 million for her competitive primary and held onto $1.3 million for the balance of the campaign. DONATE to Cait Conley. The Cook Report sees this race as a Toss up.
Pennsylvania 01. County Commissioner Bob Harvie spent most of his career teaching social studies in a vocational high school. Although the Cook Report sees this race as Likely Republican, Nate Silver counts it as one of the closest races in the country. DONATE TO Bob Harvie’s campaign. See yesterday’s piece: Len’s Political Note #839.
Pennsylvania 07 Bob Brooks was a fireman in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania for 20 years. Now he is President of the Pennsylvania Fire Fighters Association. He was exactly the kind of blue-collar candidate that a substantial segment of the Democratic Party is looking for. He introduces his policies by saying that our system is not broken, it is working just how it has been planned by the wealthy. He could skip all his other points on his platform and stick to affordability as he calls for (1) restoring the cuts in Medicaid and making Medicare available to everyone. (2) increasing the amount of market rate housing by barring private equity companies from buying up single family housing to rent them. (3) by repealing the cuts to Head Start and providing subsidies to working families for child care. (4) by bringing back the renewable energy investments cut by Trumpand preventing energy monopolies’ price gouging. (5) by protecting social security, and (6) enforcing price-gouging laws. His opponent, first term Congressman Ryan Mackenzie urged Congress to reject Pennsylvania’s 2020 Electoral College vote. His solution to the affordability problem is to increase the standard tax deduction and to eliminate taxes on social security. The most recent poll was Democratic funded and from early in July. It found Bob Brooks leading 47-43. Brooks is trailing in the financial race. Ryan Mackenzie raised $4.4 million and had $2.9 million available on June 30. Bob Brooks raised $2.4 million, spent on a competitive primary, and had $1 million remaining on June 30. DONATE to Bob Brooks campaign. See Len’s Political Note #816.
Pennsylvania 08: Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, who married into a local restaurant family, has proven to be an enormously successful politician. A former City Councilor and currently the Mayor, her campaign slogan has been “Paige Against the Machine.” A Philadelphia newspaper described her approach to being mayor: “She harped on investments in infrastructure, budgetary transparency, cutting red tape for local businesses, matching education and training with local job opportunities. Nothing groundbreaking, right? Cognetti offers a roadmap for how to effect change: Eschew the debilitating national debate. Challenge instead of pander. Let policy follow the facts. Make your voter feel like you’re on her side.” She is running against first term incumbent Bob Bresnahan. Bresnahan turned his grandfather’s electrical business into an economic powerhouse. At a time when Members of Congress have been criticized for their stock trading, he has been one of the heaviest stock traders in Congress. There are no recent polls for this race. In the financial race, Bresnahan raised $5.2 million and had $2.6 million available on June 30. Paige Cognetti raised $4.6 million and had $3.4 million. Help Paige Cognetti turn that financial lead into an electoral one. DONATE to her campaign. See Len’s Political Note #761.
Pennsylvania 10 Former television news anchor Janelle Stelson lost a close race in 2024 for this seat. Originally from Alaska, she was on the air in central Pennsylvania for nearly thirty years. That may not make her a local, but the locals know who she is.
A former Republican, she explained she switched parties after the Supreme Court overruled its previous decision to protect abortion. Her routes to making life more affordable, to reducing the cost of housing and to ensuring access to health care are all familiar to Democratic candidates. She joined with Freedom Caucus Republican Chip Roy to propose a bill that would prohibit Members of Congress from trading individual stocks. And she has proposed limiting Members of Congress to 6 terms, noting that incumbent Republican Scott Perry is seeking his 8th. She does not note, but I will, that Scott Perry was the Member of Congress who was the most helpful to Donald Trump is seeking ways for him to remain as President in 2020 despite his losing the election. Charlie Cook sees this election as a Toss-up. There are no recent polls. Janelle Stelson actually leads in the financial race. She has raised $6.4 million to Scott’s $5.2 million. And, on June 30, she had $4.5 million available to Scott’s $2.8 million. Do not take anything for granted. DONATE to Janelle Stelson’s campaign.. See Len’s Political Note #741.
These Northeastern states are simple to analyze: Four contests in Pennsylvania, one each in Maine, New Jersey, and New York.
