November 1st, 2026 Len’s Political Note #853 The Closest Races
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The Senate is the Big Prize.
Every governorship is valuable.
The United States House of Representatives can be a big Democratic win.
The Democrats’ impossible goal is to win every Toss Up Senate Seat.
THE US SENATE TOSS UPS
The Cook Political Report says there are 7 toss up seats. – six held by Republicans, one held by Democrats. Neither Sabato’s Crystal Ball nor Inside Elections adds any tossups. If Democrats did the impossible and won all seven, they would have 54 seats in the Senate. Look at those races.
Current Republican seats
ALASKA. Moderate and Native American Democratic ex-Congresswoman Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent backbench Republican Dan Sullivan FiftyPlusOne’s aggregate of polls has Mary Peltola leading 50.2 to 48.2. The most recent October poll of Likely Voters, before redirecting third and fourth place first choice selections, has Peltola at 47, Incumbent Dan Sullivan at 44, the “other” Dan Sullivan at 4, and Jerry Heikes at 1. DONATE to Mary Peltola. See Len’s Political Note #785
IOWA. Democratic State Rep and former Paralympian basketball player Josh Turek is challenging Congresswoman Ashley Hinson who GovTrak has placed in the most conservative quarter Members of Congress. Fiftyplusone’s weighted aggregate of polls has Josh Turek leading 46.1 to 45.7. The two most recently published polls are divided. Reported on Oct 27, Josh Turek led 45-43 with Libertarian Thomas Laehn at 7 points. Reported on October 29 by a Republican pollster Ashley Hinson led 48-46463with the Libertarian at 1 point. DONATE to Josh Turek. See Len’s Political Note #817
KANSAS: Running as a Democrat, Adam Hamilton, the pastor of the largest Methodist Church in the country, is challenging first term Republican incumbent Roger “Doc” Marshall who has been battered by charges that he actually lives in Florida and reports of arrests being made to collect money owed to him when he was a practicing OBGYN. Fiftyplusone’s weighted aggregate poll has Adam Hamilton a smidge ahead: 48.7 to 45.4. The three most recent polls for the state whose people have elected only one Democratic Senator in its history give a lead: 50-47, 52-43, and 49-45. DONATE to Adam Hamilton See Len’s Political Note #808
MAINE: After the Democrats’ initial nominee, chased by scandal, withdrew from the race, a convention nearly unanimously selected ex State Senate Leader and effective organizer Troy Jackson as the challenger to long-time Republican Senator Susan Collins. Collins has been dealing with a recent perception that she has opposed Donald Trump only when her vote did not matter. A story about a big payoff to her campaign has also been damaging. The FiftyPlusOne weighted aggregate has Troy Jackson leading 49.5 to 46. Troy Jackson led in the most recent polls of Likely Voters 50-45 and 49-45. DONATE to Troy Jackson. See Len’s Political Note #827
OHIO: Democrat Sherrod Brown, after his loss in 2024, is regaining .his status as a blue collar champion as he challenges the former Lt. Governor Jon Husted. Husted was picked to be Lt. Governor after serving as Speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives and successor to Larry Householder who was convicted of corruption. The FiftyPlusOne weighted aggregate has Sherrod Brown leading Jon Husted 48-44.7. The most recent late October poll has Sherrod Brown leading 47-44 with two minor candidates each receiving 2%. The poll before than had Brown and Husted tied at 47 with minor candidates gaining a total of 3%. The third of these late October polls, one funded by Democrats with a large number of people polled, had Sherrod Brown leading 47-44 and minor candidates receiving a total of 2%. DONATE to Sherrod Brown. See Len’s Political Note #750
TEXAS: If Democratic State Rep, Presbyterian seminarian, and US Senate candidate James Talarico played a sport as well as he works as a politician, he would be called a phenom. He is opposing the formerly indicted and frequently accused Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton whose campaign formula has been to seek ways to diminish the Democrat’s manhood. The FiftyPlusOne weighted aggregate has James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 49.3-45.9. Four of the five most recent polls have James Talarico leading: 49-45, 52-48, 50-47, and 49-47. One poll has Republican Ken Paxton leading 49-48. DONATE to James Talarico. See Len’s Political Note #795
Current Democratic Seat
MICHIGAN Democrat and Muslim Abdul El-Sayed is a public health director and Rhodes Scholar whose medical degree is from Columbia. He was the student speaker when he graduated from Michigan, which was a warm-up for the main speaker, Bill Clinton. He is defending an open Democratic seat against Mike Rogers — former Michigan Congressman, former talk show host, former lobbyist, and former Florida resident, The FiftyPlusOne weighted aggregate has Abdul El-Sayed leading 49.3-44.6. The most recent late October polls of Likely Voters have Abdul El-Sayed leading 50.45, 51-42, 49-42, and 51-44. DONATE to Abdul El-Sayed. See Len’s Political Note #840
All seven of these Toss-Ups are led by the Democrat. Only in Iowa has the Democratic lead in the aggregate weighted poll declined a bit in the last few days. A Democrats win is all seven of these races is a more reasonable possibility than I had imagined, If Democrats win all seven of these races, they will have 54 seats in the Senate. 52 is a more cautious projection.
There is more to say about the Senate. The polls of two groups of Senate races tare particularly difficult to assess,
Group One: States where the only or principal opponent to the Republican is an Independent. The best bets are Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Seth Bodnar in Montana. In Nebraska the FiftyPlusOne weighted aggregate has the incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts leading Independent Dan Osborn 46.4 to 46.3. Consider that a tie and DONATE to Dan Osborn. (See Len’s Political Note #785) In Montana, the weighted aggregate has the Republican nominee at 40.1. But the independent and the Democratic candidate divide the rest. Independent Seth Bodnar is at 32.2 – behind by 7.9 points. The Democrat Alina Bankhead is at 15.7. More than a majority of her supporters would have to abandon the Democrat for the independent to defeat Republican Kurt Alme. DONATE to Seth Bodnar. (See Len’s Political Note #797) It is worth a try. Neither the South Dakota nor the Idaho Independents, now that we are in the last day or two of the campaign, are competitive. See Len’s Political Note #797
Group Two: Southern states
Florida: FiftyPlusOne’s Weighted Average had Angie Nixon behind 50-43.8. That is a big deficit to make up in a couple of days but Angie Nixon has been just short of miraculous in this campaign, DONATE You can make a difference. See Len’s Political Note #841.
Louisiana. FiftyPlusOne does not report a weighted aggregate. The most recent polls are funded by the Democratic candidate. In September, Jamie Davis trailed 48-44. On October 30, farmer and Black man Jamie Davis was tied with Congresswoman Julia Letlow at 45. Take this seriously. Jamie Davis reports a very large early Black vote. Last minute money could help. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #823
Mississippi. FiftyPlusOne did not report a weighted aggregate for this race either. Scott Colom, a Black District Attorney who has been elected and reelected in a predominantly white district, has attracted the interest of and some money from the Democratic leadership. He trailed the Republican incumbent in the most recent poll 43-40 with a Black independent at 6. If voters abandon the independent, Mississippi could elect a Black Democrat to the Senate. DONATE to Scott Colom. See Len’s Political Note #764
South Carolina Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews’ persistence and the weakness of Lindsay Graham’s sister who the Republicans replaced him with after his death, have made Annie Andrews a serious, mainstream candidate. FiftyPlusOne’s weighted aggregate had Graham Nardone leading 46 to 45.6. Consider this a tie. Before the most recent revelations that Graham Nardone’s husband has been involved in supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine, the most recent polls have had the two candidates at 48 tied, Graham Nardone leading 51-47 and Andrews leading 48-43. This last poll is Democratic funded. DONATE to Annie Andrews. See Len’s Political Note #800.
Here is a new target for you. Or call it a fantasy if you want. If Democrats win the toss up races and one from Group one and one from Group two, that gets non-Republicans 56 seats in the Senate. DONATE to the candidates above.
GOVERNOR RACES
The Cook Report says there are four toss up governor races. I have added two more that Nathan Gonzalez’ s Inside Elections describes as Toss ups.
Democratic Toss ups
KANSAS. Democratic State Senator Cindy Holscher is behind Republican State Senate President Ty Masterson in the weighted aggregate 48.8 to 46.5. In polls of the last few days: Republican Ty Masterson led in two: 50-45, 53-48. Cindy Holscher led in one: 51-45. Cindy Holscher could win in this state which has had stability with a Democratic governor for the past 8 years, and a memory of economic instability, even chaos in the hands of an extremist Republican governor. DONATE to Cindy Holscher.
WISCONSIN. Democrat Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley leads Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany in the weighted aggregate 48.9 to 44.4. In the two most recent polls of Likely Voters , both in late October, David Crowley led 48-45 and 53-46. DONATE to David Crowley. See Len’s Political Note #836
Republican Toss ups
ALASKA. There is no weighted aggregate pf polls. Democratic Policy Analyst Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads. In the two latest polls that carry the ranked voting process to the two final candidates, Johthan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Republican Businesswoman Bernadette Wilson in each poll 53-47.
GEORGIA In the weighted aggregate poll, former Atlanta Mayor Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms has the tiniest lead over Health Care Businessman and philanthropist Republican Rick Jackson 48.1 to 48. Keisha Lance Bottoms leads in the last two polls 50-47 and 49-48. DONATE to Keisha Lance Bottoms. See Len’s Political Note #777.
NEVADA Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford leads Incumbent Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in the weighted aggregate 46.3 to 45.6. In the two most recent polls, both funded by Democrats, Aaron Ford led 46 to 43 in one poll and the candidates were tied at 47 in the other. In both cases, an independent candidate who a Republican PAC is comparing in advertisements to AOC has been a factor in the poll at one or two percent. The New York Times, which has made the Alaska recruitment of independent Dan Sullivan into a major scandal has not a word to say about Republican supported left wing candidate Danielle Ford in Nevada. DONATE to Nevada’s Attorney General running for Governor. Aaron Ford. See Len’s Political Note #745
OHIO Former State health Director Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in the weighted aggregate 48.2 to 45.2. In the two most recent polls, Amy Action led 49-37 in a Democratic funded poll and 49-44 in a neutrally funded poll. DONATE to Amy Acton. See Len’s Political Note #724
Democrats appear poised to win several of these toss up governor races. Len’s whim addition is Texas. State Rep Gina Hinojosa trails the incumbent governor Greg Abbott 49.2 to 46.9 in the weighted aggregate. In the two most recent polls of Likely Voters, Gina Hinojosa trailed the incumbent 48-47 and 52-46. The Democratic Senate candidate could carry her to victory. DONATE to Gina Hinojosa. See Len’s Political Note #778.See Len’s
THE CLOSEST RACES IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
: Cook most recently reports the following.
222 seats as solid, likely, and lean Democratic
195 seats as solid, likely, and lean Republican
18 seats identified as toss ups.
14 of the toss ups were held by Republicans
4 were held by Democrats
Because House seats are not polled so frequently, FiftyPlusOne rarely has weighted aggregate polls for them.
House of Representative Toss Ups – Republican Seats
California 22. Democratic School Board Trustee and College professor Randy Villegas is challenging incumbent Republican David Valdao. A poll reported on October 30 has Randy Vallegos leading 54-44. If you are certain about this University of Southern California poll, don’t bother. Otherwise DONATE to Randy Villegaos help with last minute get out the vote efforts
Colorado 05 (CB). Democrat Jessica Killin, a former Biden White House Aide is challenging incumbent Republican Jeff Crank. There are two polls from October, both discount minor candidates and both are funded by Democrats. One shows the two candidates tied at 47; the other shows Killen leading 46-44. DONATE to the Former Second Gentleman’s Chief of Staff Jessica Killen. See Len’s Political Note #768
Iowa 02. Democratic State Rep and Pastor Lindsay James is opposing Republican ex State Rep and former Trump administration housing official Joe Mitchell. The Republican incumbent is running for the US Senate. A single October poll finds James leading Mitchell 50-47. DONATE to Pastor Lindsay James See Len’s Political Note #829.
Kentucky 06. Democratic Attorney Zach Dembo is opposing Republican Medical Doctor, former State Senator, and former Tennessee Healthy Commissioner Ralph Alvarado. Five polls, the last four of them funded by Democrats, are reported. All of them show Dembo leading: 42-37, 47-38, 48-45, 46-40, 47-41. DONATE to Zach Dembo.
Michigan 04. State Senator and Native American Sean McCann is challenging incumbent Republican Bill Huizinga. A late September poll showed McCann leading 47-46. A late October, Democratic funded poll shows Huizinga leading 47-44. DONATE to Sean McCann. See Len’s Political Note #833.
Michigan 07 Surprise primary winner and climate activist William Lawrence is challenging incumbent Republican Tom Barrett. An October poll finds Lawrence leading 53-45. DONATE to William Lawrence.
Michigan 10. Democratic County Prosecutor Christina Hines is opposing National Guard Officer and popular Sheriff’s son Mike Bouchard Jr. The incumbent Republican is running for Governor. The only recent poll is from late October and is funded by Democrats. It finds Hines trailing Bouchard 42-47. DONATE to Christina Hines.
Montana 01. Smokejumper forest fire fighter and labor leader Sam Forstag is opposing Republican Radio Talk Show Host Aaron Flint. The incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke is retiring. Four polls are reported in October. The third of those polls, funded by Democrats, show Aaron Flint leading: 48-46. The first two of these polls show Forstag leading,: 48-45 and 50-46. The final poll, published on October 29, is hard to accept. Forstag leads 49-32. Do not routinely accept this wide spread. DONATE to Sam Forstag. See Len’s Political Note #820
New York 17. Democrat Cait Conley, a former NSC official and a combat veteran is challenging incumbent Republican Mike Lawler. There are three October polls, the second of them funded by Republicans, the third by Democrats. Conley leads in the firsts and third: 48-46 in both polls. Lawler leads in the second poll 50-47. DONATE to Cait Conley. See Len’s Political Note #824.
Ohio 07. City councilman and ironworker Brian Poindexter is challenging marital scandal-beset Republican incumbent Max Miller III. The only October poll is Democratic funded and finds Poindexter leading 46-42. DONATE to Brian Poindexter.
Pennsylvania 01 County Commissioner and vocational high school teacher Bob Harvie is challenging Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. Three October polls are available, the third funded by Democrats. The first and third of these polls find the two candidates tied at 46. The second poll shows Harvie leading 48-46. DONATE to Bob Harvie.
South Carolina 01 Retired Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore who was among the military leaders fired by Pete Hegseth is the Democratic candidate, She is .opposed by Jenny Honeycutt, Republican member of the Charleston County council. At the beginning of October, a Republican Pollster found Honeycutt leading 46-40. The next two polls, funded by Democrats, had Lacore leading 48-45 and 47-45. DONATE to Nancy Lacore.
Texas 15. Tejana musician and Democrat Bobby Pulido is challenging incumbent Monica de la Cruz. There are two October polls, the first funded by Democrats. Both show Pulido leading: 54-41 and 51-44. DONATE to Bobby Pulido. See Len’s Political Note #796.
Virginia 01 County Commonwealth Attorney Democrat Shannon Taylor is challenging incumbent Republican Rob Wittman. There are three polls in October. The second and third are funded by Democrats. Taylor leads in all three: 50-46, 47-46, and 48-47.DONATE to Shannon Taylor.
House of Representatives Democratic Toss Up Seats
Florida 14. Democratic incumbent Kathy Caster is defending her gerrymandered seat against former State Rep Mike Beltran. Kathy Caster is leading in the two October polls: 48-43 and 46-45. DONATE to Kathy Castor. See Len’s Political Note #826
Florida 22. Innovative educator and tech consultant Democrat Pia Dandiya is defending this seat from which Lois Frankel moved because of gerrymandering. Her opponent is Republican Businessman Casey Askar. There is one poll in October. Dandiya and Askar are tied at 46. DONATE to Pia Dandiya. See Len’s Political Note #846
North Carolina 01. Democratic Congressman Don Davis is defending this gerrymandered district against Retired Army Colonel and consulting firm owner Republican Laurie Buckhout. Of four polls in October, Buckhout led 43-42 in the third which was done by a Republican firm: Davis led in the other three, including the final poll funded by Democrats: 51-41, 47-39, and 45-44. DONATE to Don Davis. See Len’s Political Note #721.
Texas 35. Sheriff’s office spokesperson Johnny Garcia is the Democratic nominee for this gerrymandered district from which the incumbent Democrat moved because of gerrymandering. He is opposed by gym owner Carlos De La Cruz. Of the three polls in October, the first was Democratic funded. Garcia led in the first two: 47-45 and 51-49. De La Cruz led in the third poll in October: 48-47. DONATE to Johnny Garcia
It looks to me as if the Democrats are leading in 11 of the Republican Held Toss Ups, Republicans are leading in one,, and 6 remain Toss ups. As for the Democratic Held Toss ups, Democrats seem to be leading in four; Republicans lead in none of them, but four remain toss up. That’s a total of 15D, 1 R, and 10 districts that are still Toss Ups. Len’s whim adds Tennessee 09. Democratic State Rep Justin Pearson defends this extremely gerrymandered seat from which Congressman Steve Cohen retired. The Republican candidate is State Senator Brent Taylor, recently the subject of a sexual scandal. The only poll was from September and was Democratic-funded. Brent led 48-44. Because we don’t know the impact of the scandal yet, add this race to the Toss ups. And one more whim. Missouri 02 (CB) Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired army officer and veterans’ advocate is challenging incumbent Republican Ann Wagner. Wagner was leading in a late September poll 43-42. Wellman led in the two October polls, the first of which was funded by Democrats: 46-45 and 51-46.DONATE to Fred Wellman. See Len’s Political Note #772.
Remember the Cook projections:
Cook most recently reports the following.
222 seats as solid, likely, and lean Democratic
195 seats as solid, likely, and lean Republican
18 seats are identified as toss ups.
14 of the toss ups were held by Republicans
4 were held by Democrats
I formed my own opinion about these 18 districts. Based on what I see, Democrats will carry 10, Republicans 1, and 7 remain as Toss Ups. If I am right, when the ballots are counted, Democrats will have between 232 and 239 seats, Republicans between 196 and 202 seats. Along with gaining at least 51 Senate seats, and a coupe of big state Governorships like Georgia and Ohio, that is a pretty big Blue Wave.
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