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September 10th, 2022 Political Note #502 Arizona Legislature
2022 General Election
Arizona is a state where the legislature could be flipped. In 2020, the Arizona House had 31 Republicans, 29 Democrats; the Arizona Senate had 16 Republicans and 14 Democrats.
Arizona has 30 legislative districts. Each district is a Senate seat. Each district contains two House seats elected at large within the district. You would think the task would be simple. Find the battleground districts, fund the Democrats who could flip a Republican seat, and hope the candidates can do their best.
Arizona’s Independent Redistricting Commission made a lot of changes. An organization with the resources could figure out the make-up of the new districts and how likely each district would vote Republican or Democratic. My first clue that this was not so simple was when I found that CNalysis, which I had relied on for the Notes about the Michigan State Senate and Michigan State House, did not have projections for the Arizona legislature for 2022.
Every District is a partisan Democratic organization focusing on flipping three states Blue – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. They have done their own analysis of post-redistricted Arizona. Every District has identified 13 of the 30 Legislative Districts as Safely Republican, 12 of the 30 as Safely Democratic. The remaining 5, they describe as Battlegrounds.
Every District asks that its readers donate directly to them. They will donate the funds to their endorsed candidates. They say that this is particularly important for Arizona because the Republican legislature has made reporting grassroots donations so onerous that candidates are much better off receiving fewer large donations than many small ones. It is up to you. You can donate here for Every District’s endorsed candidates. Or you can donate to the individual candidates (Individual donation links for each candidate are below).
The Five Battlegrounds are:
LD 02 — northern Phoenix
LD 04 — northeastern Phoenix
LD 09 — southeastern Phoenix
LD 13 — south of LD 09
LD 16 — between Phoenix and Tucson
In four of the five Battleground Legislative Districts, Democrats see the Battlegrounds as tilting enough toward the Republicans that they thought it unwise to run two Democratic candidates. Instead, they run a single Democratic candidate, hoping that enough independents or moderate Republicans will vote for the one Democrat so that in those Battleground districts at least the one Democrat will be elected.
State Senate Candidates
Jeanne Casteen. 02 Christine Marsh 04 Eva Burch 09
Cindy Han 13. Taylor Kerby 16
Battleground State Senate Seat Candidates – Election of all of the Democratic State Senate candidates below would yield a 17-13 Democratic Majority.
Legislative District 02. Jeanne Casteen for State Senate
Like many Arizonans, Jeanne Casteen is from out of state. She grew up in Illinois, the daughter of members of the United Auto workers. She earned her BA and MEd from Arizona State University and taught for 11 years in the Maricopa County schools. She was elected, in 2012, to the Creighton School Board. In 2016, she became Board President. IN 2020, she ran for County School Superintendent, an election she lost by less than 1 percentage point. She is now the Director of a nonprofit that opposes discriminatory legislation that reflects what she describes as Arizona’s two-tier education system. She is both proud and sad that her daughter is a teacher who has left the state so she can earn a reasonable salary teaching.
Her Republican opponent is Steve Kaiser. He is a state rep who also owns a junk removal company. He would add school districts to the list of organizations which must be investigated by the Attorney General if a citizen makes a complaint that a law is broken.
Legislative District 04 Inc. Christine Marsh for reelection to the State Senate
Christine Marsh left Phoenix for UCLA with a track scholarship. She returned home with a BA in English literature in 1989 and a plan to teach high school English. She taught for 28 years, raised two sons, completed a Master’s Degree in Educational Administration at Grand Canyon University, and was named Arizona’s teacher of the year in 2016. That year, traveling around the state and visiting schools, convinced her she could improve Arizona’s schools and make them more equitable by running for office. She was elected state Senator in 2019.
Her Republican opponent is Nancy Barto. Barto is an incumbent State Senator and former Member of the House who sought to prohibit Arizona cities and counties from banning plastic bags, to ban sex education before fifth grade, and to require written opt-in permission for sex education in later grades. She has sponsored anti-abortion legislation and anti-vaccination legislation and has sought to require doctors to inform parents about the possibility of filing a law suit because of “injuries” due to a vaccination.
Legislative District 09 Eva Burch for the State Senate.
First and foremost, Eva Burchis a nurse. She received her initial degree from Prima Medical Institute in Mesa, where she now lives with her husband, her two young children, and her two dogs. She worked in high volume emergency departments in both Mesa and in Phoenix. While nursing in these demanding circumstances, she developed her understanding of the impact of food insecurity, education, health insurance status, and even homelessness on the health of the people she served. Her principal goal in running for office is to ensure that all Arizonans have access to affordable, high quality health care. Arizonans, she says, have a much too high rate of people not being insured, jeopardizing them for the principal cause of bankruptcy in the United States – unaffordable medical bills. She is an advocate for preventive health care, greater access to preschool for children, and supports for seniors. She says that she will bring the values of nursing – altruism, autonomy, respect for human dignity, integrity, honesty, and the goal of social justice – to her campaign for the State Senate and to her service as a legislator if she is elected.
Her Republican opponent is Robert Scantlebury, a former Mesa Police Officer. He opposes incentives for illegal immigration (he does not explain what those incentives are), favors more educational options so parents can direct their children’s lives, believes the 2020 election was stolen, and insists he is 100% pro-life. He advertises that he is endorsed by President Trump.
Legislative District 13 Cindy Hans for the State Senate
Cindy Hans retired from her Scottsdale principalship in 2017. She has been volunteering with the League of Women Voters and has worked as a Deputy Registrar after volunteering to work on elections. She collected signatures for school funding through Save Our Schools campaigns and worked to protect elections through Stop Dark Money campaigns. She believes that in the current system Dark Money influences legislation; that a new legislature would open up the process.
Cindy Hans is running against Republican incumbent Senator JD Mesnard who was previously Speaker of the House. He has a JD from Arizona State where he had majored in music composition as an undergraduate. In general, he supports greater choice in education along with more resources and higher pay, greater choice in health care by making health care more consumer oriented (he says not a word about choice for women regarding abortion), and reduced spending in all other aspects of government except law enforcement.
Legislative District 16 Taylor Kerby for state Senator
Taylor Kerby is an elementary school teacher. A father of two children, he is also a school board member. More clearly than other educator candidates, he refers to Arizona’s decision during the Recession to reduce education funding in 2010. Those funds have never been restored and Arizona’s schools have never been the same. He argues that now that the state has a 5 billion dollar surplus, it is time to rectify deferred maintenance on school buildings, provide resources to schools which have been doing without, and make other investments in the schools. He points to three other areas of investment: the need for more and better job training so that young adults can afford housing in what has become a very expensive market, infrastructure improvements that would allow Arizona to cope more effectively with the consequences of climate change including wildfires and droughts, and improvement in the security of votes in a state where many people rely on voting by mail. This, he insists, is a non-partisan issue.
Taylor Kerby is running against incumbent TJ Shope. Shope is a former school board member and Coolidge board president who had been the House Speaker Pro Tem. He chairs the ethics committee and is vice chair of the Rules Committee. His father, who owns and runs a local supermarket (of which Shope is now co-owner), is the former Mayor of Coolidge. Shope presents himself as a moderate Republican. Though he supported Donald Trump, he argues the party’s turn to the right will lead to nominating unelectable Republican candidates. He says he succeeded in overturning a law which prohibited sex education that described homosexuality as a positive life style; he reports he joined Democrats in supporting Medicaid expansion.
Battleground House of Representatives Seats
Voters are told to vote for up to two candidates for the House in each Legislative Districts. Democrats nominate two candidates for the House in Democratic leaning districts. Democrats often nominate only a single candidate in a legislative district that is predominantly Republican or a Battleground. They sense that many independents or even moderate Republicans would vote for one Republican and one Democrat. If there is just one Democrat, he or she would get all of those additional votes. Election of all six of the Democratic candidates below for the State House in November would probably achieve a 30-30 tie in that body.
Judy Schwiebert 02 Laura Terech 04 Lorena Austin 09 
Seth Blattman 09 Jennifer Pawlik.13 Keith Seaman 16
Legislative District HD 02 Candidate Inc. Judy Schweibert is the only Democratic candidate
Judy Schweibert is an incumbent member of Arizona’s House of Representatives. She was elected in 2020 after 27 years as a teacher in Glendale. She earned her BA at the University of Arizona and a Master’s Degree north of the border at the University of Ottawa. At home, she is the co-founder of Theater Works. She grew up in Arizona with a dad who taught shop at a vocational high school and a mom who was a writer. While education has been central to her life, as a candidate for reelection, she points to two priorities – movement toward solar energy in very sunny Arizona and the need to protect people’s right to decide whether or not to become a parent in response to the US Supreme Court Dobbs decision. Her website section “What I’m hearing from you” allows her to address a variety of other issues from investing in public schools to protecting the vote.
The Republicans have two candidates for the House from LD 02. Incumbent Justin Wilmeth is a former child actor who became a nurse first and then a politician. He describes himself as a foreign policy enthusiast and has been part of a conservative coalition. Christian Lamar focuses on voting issues. Among other things, he would allow photos or videos of all election workers, allow the state legislature to revoke election certificates due to “bad faith” elections, and require that all election challenges be considered by a jury trial.
Legislative District HD 04 Candidate Laura Terech is the only Democratic candidate
Laura Terech is an elementary school teacher whose first focus is addressing the deteriorating conditions of schools. Her most vivid example is the collapse of her classroom ceiling on her as she protected a rug full of kindergartners. She says Arizona should not be at the bottom in student achievement, class size, or teacher salary. Two other important issues are assurance that everyone can vote safely either in person or by mail and keeping health care accessible and affordable, limiting surprise billing and debt collectors seeking payment of medical bills.
The Republicans have two candidates for the House from LD 04. Matt Gress is the Director of the Governor’s Office for Strategic Planning. He is a former teacher and school board member. He describes himself as a budget hawk and an advocate for a substantial increase in teacher pay. Incumbent Maria Syms says she will continue to run on her record supporting border security, low taxes, job growth, educational choice, and safe communities. She blames opioid related deaths on drug cartels and a lack of border security, wants consequences for school boards that do not improve test scores, wants Arizona to stop defunding the police, would fight the Biden administration on inflation, and wants voter ID to keep the vote secure.
Legislative District 09 HD House Candidates Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman are the two Democratic candidates for LD 09
Lorena Austin has roots in Mesa. Her grandfather owned Albert’s Market. Her father was a civil rights attorney. She lived with her mother, a social worker, for a time in the Central Valley of California and returned to attend Mesa Community College and to get her BA from the School of Transborder Studies at Arizona State University. She received numerous student achievement and leadership awards and has been a project manager for the Maricopa County Community College district. Her first political focus is education, saying that Arizona should do better so that it is no longer ranked #49 in per pupil funding and #50 in teacher pay. She is an advocate for water usage reform and clean energy to mitigate the impact of climate change and to prevent it from getting worse.
Seth Blattman’s family moved to Scottsdale when he was 10. His father was a furniture manufacturer. Before, during, and after college, he worked in his father’s business. He attended the University of Arizona and eventually left for UCLA where he got an MBA. Seth Blattman returned to help his father’s business during the Recession, this time bringing some business expertise. He and his father made tough choices and rebuilt the business so that it was stronger than it ever had been. He is running to ensure that all children have the high-quality Arizona education that he had, to create a safe community, and because “all Arizonans deserve to have their best days ahead of us.” He says that improving education is central to the economy because businesses look first to consider the quality of employees they will have. In the legislature, he would fight special interests and voter suppression while strengthening government ethics.
Republicans have two candidates for the House of Representatives from LD 09. Mary Mendoza is endorsed by Donald Trump. She is a realtor whose son was a policeman killed by a criminal, she explains, in a head on crash when he was coming home from work. She is the founder of Angelfamilies and Angel Moms and is motivated by her son’s death to ensure safety in Arizona. She is opposed to expanding background checks for the purchase of guns and says she is a Right to Life candidate. Kathy Pearce comes from a family that has been in Arizona for generations. Motivated by her son, who lost both his legs fighting in Iraq, she founded and runs a non-profit that helps returning veterans. She says she doesn’t want to be a politician, just someone who goes to the Capitol to do the right thing. For her, the right thing is creating border security that ends the flow of crime, gangs, drugs, and disease, ensuring school choice, sufficient funds for the police, economic recovery from the pandemic, non-partisan election integrity, free market reforms for health care, support for veterans, protection of the 2nd Amendment and other constitutional freedoms endangered by government overreach. She describes herself as pro-family – opposed to government funding for organizations that perform abortions and support for mothers before and after the birth of their children.
Legislative District HD 13 House Candidate Inc. Jennifer Pawlik is the only Democratic candidate
Incumbent Jennifer Pawlik was born and raised in Arizona and has taught school in Arizona for 20 years. Her leading priorities are improving the state of education in Arizona, protecting voters, and taking care of the environment – especially water. For her, more important than pay, more important than capital needs, treating teachers like professionals and not making them subject to the whims of politicians is crucial. She is committed to ensuring that voting remains fair, counted accurately and quickly, and that those who belong on the rolls remain on them. She emphasizes the decision to have an abortion should be a private one. She adds that Arizonans need access to health care without the danger of being bankrupted, the value of providing preventive care, and the need to control the price of medications. She notes the great need for health care improvements in rural and tribal areas.
Republicans have two candidates for HD 13. Liz Harris is a realtor. She argues that newcomers to Arizona are fleeing liberal policies in their former states. She calls for election integrity, secure borders, school choice, parental rights, funding law enforcements, protecting second amendment rights, and opposition to raising taxes or increased government control over people’s lives. Julie Willoughby is an ER trauma nurse. Her husband is a financial advisor. She displays a picture of herself with Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor. Once they settled into their community in Chandler, she and her husband considered how to ensure their children’s safety, their access to the best possible education, and protection for their family business. They decided that running for public office was “the path God had planned for us all along….”
Legislative District HD 16 House Candidate Keith Seaman is the only Democratic candidate for HD 16
Keith Seaman moved to Arizona to take his first teaching job in 1974. Over the next 35 years he earned a Master’s Degree from Northern Arizona University and worked as a teacher, principal, and school superintendent. He volunteered after he retired with local Democratic groups and was elected, in 2018, to the Coolidge School Board. He vows to fight for students, teachers, and families.
Republicans have two candidates. Rob Hudelson is a pastor and a member of the Coolidge City Council. He sponsored a proposal to allow only Christian prayers to start city council meetings. The proposal passed 4-2 but was withdrawn. He has an MA in Christian education from the Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary. Theresa Martinez is a single mom of a 19 year old son. Her dad was a miner and she worked at the Frito Lay factory. During her 20 year involvement in Republican politics, she has campaigned for congressional candidates and a Secretary of State candidate. Her goals are to protect local industry; to achieve safer schools and a safer community as well as election integrity; to protect the 2nd Amendment, clean water and rural communities.
What would happen in case of a tie? Because Arizona does not have a Lt. Governor, who might preside over the Senate, neither the House or the Senate have a simple solution in case of a 15-15 tie in the Senate or a 30-30 tie in the House. The best case in either body would be a cooperative arrangement between parties with an equal sharing of committee chairs and presiding over decision-making. The worst case would be for Republicans to lure someone to the other side.
Support every House candidate (through Every District plus Keith Seaman) or by supporting each individual Battleground Democratic candidate. A tie in the House would be positive. More positive would be the House tie plus a majority of Democrats in the State Senate.
One more thing. Check out Political Note #494 Michigan House of Representatives and Political Note #493 Michigan State Senate. Support those candidates as well.
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