Political Note #500 Sean Casten Illinois 06

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September 4th, 2022          Political Note #500 Sean Casten IL 06

2022                                         General Election

Sean Casten won a terrible primary victory – 68-29 over Marie Newman in Illinois’ 6th Congressional District.  Haley Stevens won a similar 60 – 40 victory over Andy Levin in Michigan’s 11th District.  Lucy McBath won a similar 63-31 victory over Carolyn Bordeaux in Georgia’s 6th district.  And Jerrold Nadler won the same kind of 63 – 31 victory over Carolyn Maloney in New York’s 12th district.

In each case, a sitting Member of Congress defeated another sitting Member of Congress in a primary.  In each case, the winning candidate and the losing candidate were well known and popular and effective Democratic Members of Congress.  These candidates were forced to run against each other through the vagaries of the redistricting process in their respective states: Illinois, New York, Michigan, and Georgia.

Only in Illinois.  Only Sean Casten, of the four victorious incumbents, has a competitive general election ahead of him. He is running against Keith Pekau, the Mayor of Orland Park Illinois, a  businessman. Sean Casten understands that world. He was a scientist and a businessman before he ran for Congress.

Sean Casten’s business was building and installing clean heating and power plants in industrial facilities, reducing carbon dioxide emissions and saving money on energy. His firm generated electricity using waste heat capturing technology.  With this technique, he sold his product explaining we don’t have to choose between protecting the planet and creating jobs.  Every bit as much a businessman as Pekau, Sean Castencomplained about regulations. He believed the regulations he dealt with led to inefficiencies and discouraged investments to save energy and create jobs.  His goal was to create regulations that focus on goals, standards which would reduce reliance on fossil fuels.  He would have federal agencies be an example of what should be done – relying on clean and efficient energy.

As a Member of Congress, energy and the environment remained central to his public purpose, though the personal goals that moved him to run for Congress were not necessarily what could pass in Congress.   Sean Casten cosponsored bills to protect public lands and the Great Lakes, to prevent the endangerment of fragile ecosystems.  One bill, S 47, made permanent the Land and Water fund that preserves thousands of acres of natural areas, much of it for recreation, throughout the country.

Sean Casten celebrated passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most important act in American history addressing the climate crisis. There was his personal goal.  He has not given up on making the federal government more efficient in achieving these goals.  On July 28, he urged the Biden administration to cut the red tape that slows federal procurement of clean energy.   

Sean Casten approaches issues from the economy to gun reform with the same mixture of looking for scientific solutions while relying on only the regulation necessary to achieve the goal. Now he is working on making sure that the national electric grid works effectively for years to come. His views and projects are attractive to independents and moderate Republicans as well as to his base of Democrats.  Not a small matter because he has a contest on his hands.

538 sees Sean Casten’s opponent, Keith Peckau, the Mayor of Orland Park as behind by 6 points.  Peckau touts having reduced operating expenditures for the 60,000 person city by 14%, paid down the city’s debt, reduced property taxes by 28%, and reduced crime – all in one term.  He is not staying around to reap the benefit or to face the consequences of those claims and changes.  He is running for Congress.

Pekau spent most of the half million dollars he had raised during his primary and entered July with only $50,000.  Sean Casten was in better shape on July 1.  He had nearly $600,000 left from the more than $3 million he raised to win his excruciating primary.  Peckau will have raised money for the homestretch of the campaign. Do not think for a minute that Keith Peckau will rely only on money he raised.  Republican organizations, PACs sympathetic to Republicans have money and are spending that money to achieve a Republican Congress.

Help Sean Casten.  Contribute to his campaign.  Make sure that he will win this race. Make sure that the Democrats keep their majority.

Others you may want to help.  These are the closest House races according to 538’s recent projections.

  1. CT 02 Inc. Joe Courtney is projected to defeat Mike France by 7.4 points
  2. CO 07 Brittany Petterson is projected to defeat Erik Aadland by 7.4 points (D Hold)
  3. IL 13 Nikki Budzinski is projected to defeat Regan Deering by 7.0 points (D Flip)
  4. CA 47 Inc. Katie Porter is projected to defeat Scott Baugh by 6.8 points
  5. IL 06 Inc Sean Casten is projected to defeat Keith Pekau by 6.2 points
  6. WA 08 Inc. Kim Schrier is projected to defeat Matt Larkin by 5.8 points
  7. MI 08 Inc. Dan Kildee is projected to defeat Paul Junge by 5.7 points
  8. OR 06 Andrea Salinas is projected to defeat Mike Erickson by 5.4 points (New Seat)
  9. MN 02 Inc. Angie Craig is projected to defeat Tyler Kistner by 5.0. points
  10. CA 09 Inc Josh Harder is projected to defeat Tom Patti by 5.0. points
  11. RI 02 The Democratic nominee is projected to defeat Allen Fung by 5.0 points (D Hold)
  12. VA 07 Inc Abigail Spanberger is projected to defeat Yesli Vega by 4.8 points
  13. NV 04 Inc Steven Horsford is projected to defeat Sam Peters by 4.6 points
  14. NV 01 Inc Dina Titus is projected to defeat Mark Robertson by 4.6 points
  15. IN 01 Inc Frank Mrvan is projected to defeat Jennifer-Ruth Green by 4.4 points
  16. NH 01 Inc Chris Pappas is projected to defeat Matt Mowers by 4.2 points
  17. CT 05 Inc Jahana Hayes is projected to defeat George Logan by 4.2 points
  18. TX 28 Inc Henry Cuellar is projected to defeat Cassy Garcia by 4.0 points
  19. PA 17 Chris Deluzio is projected to defeat Jeremy Shaffer by 3.2 points (D Hold)
  20. PA 08 Inc Matt Cartwright is projected to defeat Jim Bognet by 3.2 points
  21. NY 03 Robert Zimmerman is projected to defeat George Santos by 3.2 points (D Hold)
  22. OH 09 Inc Marcy Kaptur is projected to defeat JR Majewski by 3.1 points
  23. CA 13 Adam Gray is projected to defeat John Duarte by 3.0 points (D Hold)
  24. MI 07 Inc Elissa Slotkin is projected to defeat Tom Barrett by 2.6 points
  25. MI 03 Hillary Scholten is projected to defeat Joh Gibbs by 2.2 points (D Flip)
  26. NY 22 Francis Conole is projected to defeat Steve Wells by 2.0 points (D Flip)
  27. ME 02 Inc Jared Golden is projected to defeat Bruce Poliquin by 1.9 points
  28. NV 03 Inc Susie Lee is projected to defeat April Becker by 1.6 points
  29. MD 06 Inc David Trone is projected to defeat Neil Parrott by 1.4 points
  30. NY 18 Pat Ryan is projected to defeat Colin Schmitt by .8 points
  31. IL 17 Eric Sorensen is projected to defeat Esther Joy King by .6 points (D Hold)
  32. CA 22 Rudy Salas is projected to defeat Inc David Valadao by .2 points (D Flip)
  33. KS 03 Inc Sharice Davids is projected defeat Amanda Atkins by .1 point
  34. CA 27 Christy Smith is projected to tie Inc Mike Garcia
  35. PA 07 Inc Susan Wild is projected to lose to Lisa Scheller by 1.2 points (R Flip)
  36. VA 02 Inc Elaine Luria is projected to lose to Jen Kiggans by 1.2 points (R Flip)
  37. NC 13 Wiley Nickel is projected to lose to Bo Hines by 1.4 points. (R Hold)
  38. NM 02 Gabe Vasquez is projected to lose to Inc Yvette Herrell by 1.6 points
  39. CO 08 Yadira Caraveo is projected to lose to Barbara Kirkmeyer by 1.9 points (New Seat)
  40. NJ 07 Inc Tom Malinowski is projected to lose to Thomas Kean by 2.2 points (R Flip)
  41. OR 05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner is projected to lose to Lore Chavez-DeRemer by 2.8 points (R Flip)
  42. TX 15 Michelle Vallejo is projected to lose to Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez by 2.8 points (R Flip)
  43. IA 03 Inc Cindy Axne is projected to lose to Zach Nunn by 3.2 points (R Flip)
  44. AZ 02 Inc Tom O’Halleran is projected to lose to Eli Crane by 3.0 points (R Flip)
  45. CA 45 Jay Chen is projected to lose to Inc Michelle Steel by 3.6 points
  46. NY 01 Bridget Fleming is projected to lose to Nick Lalota by 4.6 points (R Hold)
  47. NY 19 Josh Riley is projected to lose to Eric Molinari by 4.8 points (R Flip)
  48. WI 03 Brad Pfaff is projected to lose to Derrick Van Orden by 5.0 points (R Flip)
  49. MI 10 Carl Marlinga is projected to lose to John James by 5.0 points (R Hold)
  50. OH 13 Emilia Sykes is projected to lose to Madison Gesiotto Gilbert by 7.2 points
  51. CA 41 Will Rollins is projected to lose to Inc Ken Calvert by 8.0 points

If you have $1,000 to spend on House races, you could begin with the very closest –

CA 27 Christy Smith tied,

KS 03 Sharice Davids ahead by .1,

CA 22 Rudy Salas ahead by .2,

IL 06 Eric Sorensen ahead by .6, and

NY 18 Pat Ryan ahead by .8.

Give them $150 each

Now you could focus on those Democrats who are a little behind. 

PA 07 Inc Susan Wild by 1.2,

Inc Elaine Luria behind by 1.2,

NC 13 Wiley Nickel behind by 1.4,

NM 02 Gabe Velasquez behind by 1.6 and

CO 08 Yadira Caraveo behind by 1.9.

Give them $50 dollars

That spends your $1,000. But go ahead.  Exceed your $1,000. Help one more incumbent pull it out.

NJ 07 Inc Tom Malinowski behind by 2.2

Give him $50, too.