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August 14th, 2022 Political Note #493 Michigan State Senate
2022 General Election
Michigan had a referendum. in 2018. By 61-39 percent Michiganders voted to give the power of redistricting to an independent redistricting commission. The commission would have 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and 5 independents. All Michigan voters except those holding state or local office were invited to apply to be on the commission. Of those who applied, 60 would be selected at random from each category. Legislative leaders were allowed to strike a modest number of those selected from the pool. After the pool was reduced, the Secretary of State selected, at random, from the sub-pools 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and 5 Independents. Those thirteen people became the Commissioners. They were prohibited from holding state or local public office for the next five years.
The primaries held on August 3 – for Members of Congress, for State Senators, and for the State House of Representatives – were based on district lines drawn by this Commission.
Michigan’s current state senate has 22 Republicans and 16 Democrats. Michigan’s current state house of representatives has 56 Republicans, 53 Democrats, and 1 independent. The candidates for the State Senate and State House of Representatives are facing a substantially changed set of districts.
An official at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics recommended CNalysis to me. CNalysis has created a model for projecting state legislative election results. They applied their model to Michigan’s upcoming general election and I used their application.
Based on CNalysis’s work, it appears that Michigan’s State Senate will be a toss-up election in November. According to their model if Democrats carry the two toss-up districts they have identified, the State Senate would be tied 19 each. If that were the case, the Lt. Governor, who presides over the Senate, will be the deciding vote in the formation of the Senate majority. Governors and Lt. Governors run as a team in Michigan. The majority in the Michigan Senate could depend on whether the incumbent governor, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, or Republican Radio Host Tudor Dixon is elected Governor of Michigan.
A slightly more aggressive view would consider how Democrats can gain a majority without relying on the Lt. Governor. According to the CNalysis model, most of the Senate seats are solidly Democratic or solidly Republican. There are, however, two seats that are Likely Democratic, two that are Toss ups, two that Tilt Republican, and two that are Likely Republican. If Democrats can win five of these eight races, they will control the Senate chamber without regard to who or where the Lt. Governor is. I urge you to support the Democrats in all of these races by donating to their campaigns. Not necessarily a lot. Show them that there are people outside of Michigan who are with them.
Rosemary Bayer. Sue Shink
Likely Democratic Districts – Michigan 13; Michigan 14
Michigan 13
Rosemary Bayer is the incumbent of MISD 13. She is from Beverly Hills, MI – a northern suburb in Metropolitan Detroit. In 2018, she was elected to the State Senate with no experience in politics. It turns out, she is pretty good at it and is currently serving as the Minority Whip in the State Senate.
Rosemary Bayer was a scientist in the tech industry. She graduated from Central Michigan University and, while working, earned an MBA from Lawrence Technological Institute. By the time she decided to leave private business, she was heading a multinational Sun Microsystems business unit. Whatever motivated her to change focus, she moved on to working with non-profits and to helping women thrive in technology and the world. Her political battles have found her as likely to be working on gun safety as on her top three issues of education, the environment, and health.
Rosemary Bayer’s opponent is Jason Rhines, an anti-tax businessman endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan.
Michigan 14
Sue Shink chairs her County Board of Commissioners and owns a wind farm. With a BA, MS, and Law Degree from the University of Michigan, she is a triple Wolverine. She hopes to represent an area not far from Ann Arbor. A member of the Michigan Climate Action Network, she celebrates the state leadership that revoked the easement that allowed a dangerous pipeline in Lake Michigan.
In addition to conservation and preservation, as a county commissioner Sue Shink advocated for ways to ensure that all kids would thrive in area schools and for support services that would help families achieve that goal. She is endorsed by conservation organizations and also by Planned Parenthood Advocates, unions, and organizations committed to making Michigan more equal.
Susan Shink’s opponent Tim Golding is a building contractor whose campaign focus is opposition to taxes, ensuring that public education focuses on American values, and defending “the sanctity of life.”
Victoria Klinefelt Kristen Rivet
Toss Up Districts – Michigan 11, Michigan 35
Michigan 11
Veronica Klinefelt is attempting to unseat the Republican Senator in this Toss Up district. MISD11 is in Macomb County, blue collar, socially conservative suburbs north of Detroit – where the term “Reagan Republican” originated. Defining current politics there now is harder. The County voted for Obama, for Trump, and for Biden; for Whitmer and Stabenow and also for Republican Bill Schuette.
Veronica Klinefelt landed in Macomb County after growing up all over the world as an army brat. When her kids were in school in Michigan, she ran for the school board. And won. Concerned that the schools were underfunded, she examined school finances and discovered what looked like $3 million in fraud. The FBI investigation led to more than 20 indictments. Newly available funds led to a focus on the school district’s crumbling infrastructure.
Veronica Klinefelt brought the same energy and a commitment to the city council and then the County Board of Commissioners. Her target is now state government. To achieve that goal, she will have to defeat Incumbent Michael McDonald. He is an exercise physiologist and personal trainer, who earned a doctorate in health care administration in 2015 and was elected to the State Senate in 2018. He has sponsored a resolution to affirm the right to life of every “unborn child”. He explains, in LinkedIn, he is “passionate about health care and fitness related research.” He hopes “to be an instrumental figure in the United States health care industry.” Move him along to focus on that goal; help elect Veronica Klinefelt to replace him in the Michigan State Senate.
Michigan 35
Kristen McDonald Rivet has been a significant figure for health care in Central Michigan, statewide and in the area that makes up Michigan’s new 35th State Senate District which is south and west of the inside of the Michigan thumb. President and CEO of the Greater Midland, Inc she led an organization that ran fitness and wellness programs, offered senior services, and helped families needing basic services such as food and clothing. As Vice President of Michigan Future, Inc, she worked to help families learn how they could escape poverty. As Chief Strategy Officer for the Michigan Health Improvement Alliance she focused on improved health delivery systems.
Kristen McDonald Rivet was elected as a City Commissioner for Bay City in 2020. She worked on economic development and revitalizing public services and infrastructure. She will extend that work as a State Senator. Her campaign goals are improving education, creating economic opportunities for everyone in the state, protecting the rights of Michiganders, including the right of privacy and reproductive freedom, and to strengthen the economy of her district.
She will have to defeat the Republican nominee for this Toss Up district – Annette Glenn, who has been a State Rep since 2018. Glenn tells her supporters, not necessarily incorrectly, that the election for this seat is the one that will decide which party controls the Michigan State Senate. Among those who endorse her are the Citizens for Traditional Values, the NRA, the Right to Life Michigan PAC, the Fraternal Order of Police, and the Associated Builders and Contractors of Michigan. Help make the Michigan Senate Democratic. Donate to Kristen McDonald Rivet.
Padma Kuppa David LaGrand
Tilt Republican Districts – Michigan 9; Michigan 30
Michigan 9
State Rep Padma Kuppa is tough. She came to the US as a child, with her parents who came for graduate school. She was in American schools until she was a teenager and became thoroughly Americanized. She was determined to return to the United States after her parents took her with them to India. Her route back to the US was via a mechanical engineering degree. She was the first woman in her university to do such a thing.
In Michigan, Padma Kuppa extols the opportunities in the state’s auto industry. She has worked for Chrysler, Ally Financial, and other automobile related companies. Her first two campaign priorities are to strengtheni the public schools and to ensure comprehensive access to health care. She is endorsed by labor unions, conservation groups, groups that support the LGBTQ community, reproductive rights, and, for a little diversity, the Michigan Bankers Association.
If Padma Kuppa is to win this seat, she needs to defeat Michael Webber, also a state rep looking to move to the Senate. He describes himself as a conservative fighter who would reduce the cost of living, secure voting by imposing ID rules, and put parents in charge of their children’s education (presumably that is somehow in opposition to school boards elected by parents and other citizens). Donate to Padma Kuppa.
Michigan 30
You can tell that David LaGrand is a local from Grand Rapids and Calvin College. He has combined his degree from Calvin with a law degree from The University of Chicago. He returned to Grand Rapids joined a law firm, then spent eight years as an Assistant County Prosecutor. When he completed that tour of duty, he started. His own firm. David LaGrand also had a keen eye for ways to restore Grand Rapids center. He didn’t use federal or state money, he used his own. With friends, he opened a coffee shop. Then he opened a bakery and began opening restaurants in Grand Rapids and neighboring communities. His new distillery was part of Grand Rapids’ revival.
David LaGrand’s goal is to restore faith in government. While doing that, he would reform the criminal justice system by making low level offenders employable, continue the improvement in the economy that he has undertaken personally, and ensure civil rights including reproductive rights for women.
To achieve these goals, he has to defeat Incumbent Senator Mike Huizenga. Huizenga touts Faith, Family, Country, and Michigan Values. He is also the managing partner of Key Green Solutions, software that hospitals can use to track consumption of various natural resources. He has raised more than $300,000 for this state senate race and is endorsed by the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. There are worse Republicans in the Michigan Senate. Mike Huizenga’s religiosity seems genuine, his conservation-related business seems practical. There is nothing visible to tie him to the extremes of the Republican Party. Nevertheless, if Democrats are to become the majority in the Michigan Senate, David LaGrand’s campaign needs your help.
Kevin Hertel Terry Sabo
Likely Republican Districts – Michigan 12; Michigan 32
Michigan 12
Kevin Hertel is a state rep seeking to move up to become the Senator representing Grosse Pointe and neighboring communities. Before becoming involved in electoral politics, he was a legislative analyst for Blue Cross/Blue Shield. As a legislator, he focused on education, clean water, sustaining higher wages, and holding the Unemployment Commission to account for mismanaging applications.
Kevin Hertel is running against another state rep attempting to move to the Senate – Pamela Hornberger. She bills herself as a common sense conservative. By that, she means she has sponsored several right to life bills (though, in response to the changed political atmosphere, she has revised the focus at the top of her website to make her right to life commitment less visible). Her understanding of the 2nd amendment is formed in part by her NRA membership. She believes her right to carry is an “equalizer.”
Give to Kevin Hertel. He could flip this seat and create the Democratic majority in Michigan’s Senate.
Michigan 32
Terry Sabo currently represents Lansing – a city powerfully affected by being the state capital and by being nearby to Michigan State University. In the Air Force, he worked in security. At home in Lansing, he was a police officer and firefighter, was elected to the Road Commission and then to the County Commission. He describes his priority as a state rep as building relationships so he could make government work for his constituents. He would have the same goal in his Senate district. He condemns the past behavior of the legislature which, he says, politicized the pandemic response, attacked workers’ rights, neglected roads and other infrastructure, taxed pensions, increased taxes for the middle class, and failed to address the need for affordable housing.
To become the state Senator, Terry Sabo would have to defeat the incumbent Jon Bumstead. Bumstead built a successful housing construction business. A member of the NRA, he describes himself as a sportsman. He has hunted, he says, in Canada and Australia, the Arctic and Africa. Terry Sabo sees Michigan’s redistricting as a time of change, a time when there is an opportunity to replace the Republican state senator. Donate to Terry Sabo’s campaign.
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