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Political Note #287 James Mackler US Senate Tennessee
2020 General Election
When should a politician acquiesce? Did James Mackler https://www.jamesmackler.com/ make a mistake in 2018? He withdrew from the Senate race then. Here are a couple of politicians who refused to acquiesce.
Barack Obama. In 1996 he was a lawyer with a past as a community organizer. Alice Palmer, the State Senator from his district, announced she was not running for reelection. Barack Obama announced he was and was nominated. She changed her mind, but could not get back in. Barack Obama did not withdraw. He ran and won and had a pretty good political career.
Congressman Joe Kennedy III. He has ambitions. The Massachusetts US Senator not named Elizabeth Warren is up for election in 2020. Ed Markey is 73. If he is elected to another term, he would complete that term at age 79. That is not so old. I know that because I’m 78. Joe Kennedy III didn’t say so, but his thinking was that Ed Markey’s age made him vulnerable. He announced for the Markey’s seat. Markey did not withdraw. Was Joe Kennedy III right in his decision? How about Markey? The winner will have been the one who made the right decision.
In 2018, James Mackler announced he would run for the US Senate. Tennessee’s Senator retired. He was a Republican who did not get on with Donald Trump. Phil Bredesen announced he would run. Former health insurance company mogul, mayor of Nashville, and two-term governor of Tennessee, Bredesen looked like he could win. James Mackler withdrew. Bredesen lost 55-44. The last Democratic Senator from Tennessee was Jim Sasser. He lost in 1994. James Mackler should not regret his withdrawal in 2018.
Will James Mackler have a better chance to be elected in 2020? He’s running after another Tennessee Senator retired. Tennessee is a border state. The border states have become more Republican in the last decade or two even as a few Democrats have been elected in the South. Louisiana has a Democratic Governor. So does North Carolina. Alabama has a Democratic Senator. Mississippi had a Democratic Attorney General until he ran for Governor. These states have African-American populations that range between nearly 30% and nearly 40%. That is a large enough population to serve as a base for Democratic candidates if circumstances are ripe for a Democratic victory. The border states are different. Tennessee has an African American population in the mid teens. Arkansas, too. Missouri and Kentucky have even smaller percentages of African Americans. Democrats in those states don’t have as much of a base to start with in the border states. Democratic victories are hard to come by. They are possible, though. Joe Manchin of West Virginia leads the way.
James Mackler has some qualities that could make him popular in Tennessee. He was a Blackhawk helicopter pilot for the Army in Iraq for three years. He sought out a combat assignment after 9/11. He returned work as an attorney, serving as a prosecutor in the Judge Advocate Corps. Back home in Nashville now, he continues to be a member of the National Guard.
James Mackler is, nevertheless, an unusual candidate for the South. He’s Jewish. In fact, he’s married to a Rabbi. Shana Goldstein Mackler who is a Rabbi at a Reform Temple in Nashville. A Jewish Senator is not unusual. Nine are serving in the US Senate now – from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Oregon, and Vermont. None from the South. A Jewish Senator from a border state or a Southern state is unusual. All of those who caucus with the Democrats are from the north or the west. They do have an ideological range. From moderate Diane Feinstein to Bernie Sanders.
James Mackler’s campaign minimizes the issues. He wants an America that is “an open and welcoming place that is driven by opportunity and ingenuity; a country motivated by courage, not fear; a society where we seek justice, strive for equality, and embrace our neighbors.” His politics are centrist for a Democrat. He’s for spending on infrastructure, was opposed to Trump’s tax cuts, favors LGBT rights, would legalize marijuana for medical purposes, opposed Trump’s trade wars, but would have renegotiated NAFTA. He’s looking for ways to save Tennessee’s rural hospitals and would take steps to ensure that everyone has access to health care.
James Mackler has a little company in 2020 in the South. Jon Ossoff, is a moderate Democrat, is running for the US Senate in Georgia. Josh Stein is running for reelection as Attorney General in North Carolina. Lightning could strike. The Republicans have a front runner. Bill Hagerty is a private equity guy who has served as US Ambassador to Japan and worked on economic development in Tennessee. So far, Hagerty has been nimble. A former economic advisor to George HW Bush, he was the finance chair for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. Initially supporting Jeb Bush in 2016, he switched to Chair Trump’s campaign in Tennessee after Bush’s withdrawal. He’s got a money advantage — $5 million cash on hand versus James Mackler’s $500,000. Hagerty does have ia primary opponent –an Indian-American surgeon who may be more conservative than Hagerty and has $2 million cash on hand as they approach the primary. Hagerty also has Donald Trump. That should be an advantage in Tennessee.
Politics, like the rest of life, is about showing up. James Mackler https://www.jamesmackler.com/ is doing that. He is doing what he can to make a race of it. Southern states become competitive as they become more like the north. Virginia is as blue as Maryland (bluer since Maryland has a Republican Governor). North Carolina, Georgia, Florida all have characteristics that can make them become Democratic states – especially if they can escape voter suppression and gerrymandering. But Tennessee? The state where Al Gore was a Senator. The state Al Gore could not carry when he ran for President. James Mackler could be the candidate to demonstrate how Tennessee has changed. Help James Mackler make a race of this election. Help him to be in a position to take advantage of the opportunities that will come along.
Help these Senate candidates. A surprising number of these candidates just might win and flip the Senate. Check the our website for more complete descriptions of candidates described in bold. You can find those pieces at Lenspoliticalnotes.com
RACES THAT ARE CLOSE TO EVEN; MONEY COULD BE CRUCIAL
Montana Steve Bullock, popular Democratic Governor of Montana versus corporate-oriented incumbent Steve Daines. March 31 Cash on hand: Daines $5.5 Million, Bullock $3 Million. Polls: March 47-47 Tie.
Maine Speaker of the ME House, Sara Gideon v former moderate Senator, Susan Collins. March 31 Cash on hand: Collins $5.5 Million, Gideon $4.5 Million Polls: February Gideon 43-42, June 2019 Collins 44-30, June 2019 Collins 52-36
Kentucky Retired Marine Pilot Amy McGrath and conservative Democrat v Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. March 31 Cash on hand: McConnell $15 Million, McGrath $15 Million, Charles Booker $70,000. Polls January Tie 41-41, January, McConnell 43-40, September 2019 McConnell 47-46, August, 2019 McConnell 47-45
North Carolina. Businessman, environmentalist, and veteran, Cal Cunningham v Incumbent Thom Tillis. March 31 Cash on Hand: Tillis $6.5 Million, Cunningham $3 Million. Polls: April Cunningham 47-40, April Tillis 38-34, March Cunningham 48-43, Tillis 44-42
Kansas Physician and former Republican State Senator Barbara Boliier for Open Republican Seat in Kansas. Cash on hand: March 31 Bollier $2.4 Million. Several Republicans: Businessman Bob Hamilton $2 Million, Congressman Roger Marshall $2 Million, ex KS Secretary of State State Kris $300,000, ex KC Chief football player David Lindstrom $300,000, Senate President Susan Waigle $200,000. Polls: In a large field, despite a modest amount of money, right wing cult anti-immigration figure Kobach is probably a slight favorite to be the Republican nominee. April Bollier 44-42 v Kobach, February Kobach 47-38, February 43-43 tie
Alaska Physician and Commercial Fisherman Al Gross v. incumbent and attorney with military connections Dan Sullivan. March 31: Sullivan’s cash on hand $4.5 million. Gross’s cash on hand $2 million. No polls.
REPUBLICANS ARE AHEAD, MONEY FOR DEMOCRATS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE
South Carolina Former Party Chair Jaime Harrison v incumbent, former moderate Republican Lindsay Graham. March 31 Cash on hand Graham $12 Million, Harrison $8 Million. Polls: March Graham 47-43
Alabama Incumbent ex US Attorney and KKK Prosecutor Doug Jones v ex Senator and ex Secretary of State Jeff Sessions or former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. March 31 Cash on hand. Jones $5.5 Million. Sessions $750,000, Tuberville $500,000. Polls: Primary Poll. February Sessions 32-30, March Tuberville 52-40. No Polls for the General Election
Georgia (A) Jon Ossoff v incumbent David Perdue. Cash on Hand March 31. Perdue $9 Million Ossoff $2 Million, Teresa Tomlinson $400,000, Sarah Riggs Amico $200,000. Polls October Perdue 47-44 v possible candidate Michelle Nunn, November Tie 48-48 v same candidate, 50-46 Perdue v same candidate. No polls for general election until Democratic primary is over.
Georgia (B) Five candidates. The top two will be in a run off. Three Democrats: The Reverend Dr. Raphael Warnock, Senior Pastor at the Ebenezer Baptist Church of Atlanta, Businessman Matt Lieberman, ex US Attorney Ed Tarver. Two Republicans: Inc Kelly Loeffler, Congressman Doug Collins. Cash on hand: Loeffler $6 Million, Warnock $1.2 Million, Collins $1 Million Polls: April Collins 36, Warnock 16, Loeffler 13, Lieberman 11, Tarver 3.
TEXAS Pilot MJ Hegar should win the primary run off and run against the increasingly unpopular Incumbent John Cornyn. March 31 Cash on hand: Cornyn $13 Million, Hegar $1 Million, Royce West $120,000. Polls: February Cornyn 49-41, December, 2019 Cornyn 44-30
Iowa Businesswoman and civic leader Theresa Greenfield v unpopular incumbent Joni Ernst. March 31 Cash on hand: Ernst $4.5 Million, Greenfield $2 Million, Businessman Eddie Mauro $1 Million. Polls: December, 2019 Ernst 47-41 v Greenfield, October, 2019 Ernst 47-40 v. Greenfield
REPUBLICANS FAR ENOUGH AHEAD TO BE PROBABLES THOUGH MONEY COULD HAVE AN IMPACT
Mississippi Ex Member of Congress and Ex Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy v Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. March 31 Cash on hand: Hyde-Smith $1 Million, Espy $400,000. Polls: February Hyde-Smith 53-43
Tennessee Attorney, former military pilot, and Rabbinical Spouse James Mackler for an open Republican seat in Tennessee. March 31 Cash on hand: Hedge Fund Owner Bill Hagerty $5.5 Million or Surgeon Manny Sethi $2 Million v. Mackler $500,000. Polls: February General Election Hagerty 55 – 33, Sethi 46-35
DEMOCRATS ARE AHEAD
Arizona Astronaut Mark Kelly, gun safety leader with his wife former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords v. Incumbent and ex fighter pilot Martha McSally. March 31 Cash on hand: McSally $10 million. Kelly $20 million. Polls: April 15 Kelly 51-42, March 16 Kelly 50-44, March 13 Kelly 48-36
Colorado Former Governor John Hickenlooper or House Speaker Andrew Romanoff v Incumbent attorney and party activist Senator Cory Gardner. March 31 Cash on hand: Gardner $13 million, Hickenlooper $9 million, House Speaker Romanoff $1 million. Polls: August, 2019. Hickenlooper 53-40
Michigan Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters has a tough opponent in African-American Businessman John James. March 31 Cash on hand: Peters $8.7 Million, Johnson $8.5 Million. Polls: April Peters 46-36, March Peters 42-35, February Peters 45-39, January Peters 44-40
REPUBLICANS ARE A SURE THING
SOUTH DAKOTA, Businessman Dan Ahlers v Incumbent Mike Rounds. March 31 Cash on hand Rounds $2Million. Ahlers (who still has to win a primary) $35,000. Not worth looking for polls.
Idaho No outstanding Democrat versus incumbent James Risch. March 31: Rish cash on hand $2 million. No Democrat with as much as $50,000.
Arkansas Independent Dan Whitfield v incumbent Tom Cotton March 31 Cash on hand Cotton $5 Million, Whitfield $5 Thousand. No polls.
