Len’s Political Note #814 The State of the House

May 26^th, 2026                      Len’s Political Note #814 The State of the House

2026                                         General Election

Speaker                        Speaker

Hakeem Jeffries?     Mike Johnson?                              

The pundits have digested the impact of the US Supreme Court and the Virginia Supreme Court on the election to the US House of Representatives.  They have identified hich seats are Safe for the Democrats, for the Republicans.  Which seats are likely for the Democrats, for the Republicans.  Which seats Lean Democratic, which lean Republican.  One pundit group, Inside Elections, adds the category of Tilt.  Some seats Tilt Democratic, some Republican. And finally, they all identify Toss-ups.  The pundits – Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections do not agree on every seat – but who would expect total agreement?

As a favor to their readers, the Cook Political Report adds everything up. After doing their arithmetic, Cook reported that on May 8^th there were 181 Safe Democratic seats; 180 Safe Republican seats.  Cook added the rest of them and found: 207 seats had some degree of probability of being Democratic, 210 seats had the same degree of probability of being Republican.  They were left with 18 Toss up districts.

The Cook people cannot say, with any confidence, which way those seats will go.  Today’s piece takes a look at those eighteen seats to see what happens when I dare to make a judgment where Cook does not. I found 10 districts I thought were Tilt Democratic.  Add them in, we get to 217 Democratic seats. I found 3 districts I thought were Tilt Republican.  Add them in, we get to 213 Republican Seats. Finally I left 5 seats as Toss ups.  If all five of them were considered Republican, we would be predicting a House of Representatives with 218 Republicans and 217 Democrats.  If any of the 5 Toss ups were predicted to Tilt Democratic, I would be predicting a Democratic House .

As of now, even after the courts decided in favor of Republican gerrymandering and against Democratic gerrymandering, the race for control of the House of Representatives appears to be very close. Democrats need to fight for every seat if they are to gain control of Congress.

Here are the Toss ups that Cook Reports identified and my thoughts about each one.

Arizona 01. North and east of Phoenix.  Emergency Room physician Amish Shah, who lost to the incumbent now running for governor by 2 points,  and former broadcast journalist Marlene Galan-Woods whose parents escaped from Cuba are the only Democrats who registered on a poll in February.  Jonathan Treble, who started providing business amenities from coffee machines to printers in his living room, has raised more than the two candidates with. political experience or the Republican who has raised the most in his party.  Treble is running to fight Trump’s “radical agenda.” Whoever wins the July 21 primary will face either former Arizona Cardinal kicker Thomas Feely or Joseph Chaplik who resigned from the Arizona House to focus on his campaign.  He has raised less money than any of the others listed, tells us he will “stand tall” in DC and his issues are “common sense.”   There are no general election polls from 2026.

Len’s Projection for Arizona 01.  Until the primary is over, this is a Tilt Republican.  DONATE to Amish Shah or Marlene Galan-Woods or Jonathan Treble or wait until after the August 4 primary.

Arizona 06 Southeastern corner of the state.  Retired Marine Drill Instructor JoAnna Mendoza will face Incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani.  In polls Mendoza leads by between one and three points. They have each raised more than $5 million for this race and each closed the quarter with more than $3 million.

Len’s Projection for Arizona o6.  Even though the polls are few and the leads are small, JoAnna Mendoza appears to have the edge.  This is Tilt Democratic.  See Len’s Political Note #762.  DONATE to JoAnna Mendoza’s campaign.

California 22. Anchored by the east side of Bakersfield in the south, the district spreads north in Central California.  A recent poll paid for by the Working Families Party.  found 44% of the voters in the district support the Republican incumbent David Valadao.  29% prefer school board trustee and Bernie Sanders endorsee Randy Villegos and 21% of the voters would prefer Physician and state assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains.  With $4.2 million raised, Valadao more than triples what each of the Democrats have raised.

Len’s Projection for California 22. Even though it is only one poll and undertaken by what you would guess as Vellegos sympathizers, the edge in the poll does not quite make up for Valadao’s money.  This district is a Tilt Republican.  DONATE Randy Villegaos or Jasmeet Bains or wait until the June 2 primary.

Colorado 08 Created for 2022 in response to Colorado’s population growth, this district runs in a thick line north from Denver. It elected a Democrat in 2022.  In 2024, a Republican.  In 2026, Democrats will first choose between two state reps:  Shannon Bird and wunderkind Manny Rutinel.  Two polls find him ahead by a single point. There are no general election polls. Progressive Manny Rutinal leads the more moderate or less predictable Shannon Bird in the financial race by a 2-1 margin.

Len’s Projection for Colorado 08.  If Manny Rutinel can consolidate his lead, he should be able to defeat Republican incumbent Gabe Evans who won election by less than a percentage point in 2024.  Consider this a Tilt Democratic.  DONATE to Manny Rutinal.

Iowa 01. Southeastern quarter of Iowa.  Law professor and former state rep Christine Bohannan against Incumbent Republican and ophthalmologist Marionette Miller-Meeks. Although there are no polls, the financial race is close.  Each raised more than $5 million; each still has at least $4 million.

Len’s Projection for Iowa 01.  Miller-Meeks cannot sustain her run of luck.  She won in 2024 by 799 votes (50.1-49.9).  In 2000, she was elected by 9 votes.  This year it is Tilt Democratic for the much more knowledgeable Christina Bohannan.  See Len’s Political Note #737. DONATE to Christina Bohannan.

Iowa 03. Southwestern quarter of Iowa including Des Moines.  There are no polls for this race which will feature State Senator Susan Trone Gariott against Incmbent Republican and former Air Force Colonel Zach Nunn.  Each of them has raised $3 million or more.  Nunn has been restless.  He considered a run for governor and was chased away by Donald Trump. He considered a race for Iowa 04, which is the state’s only safe Republican seat.  He was discouraged from that as well.  He won handily in 2024, but by only a 50.3 to 49.6 margin in his first race in 2022.

Len’s Projection for Iowa 03. The people of this district will remember Zach Nunn’s restlessness and will vote him out.  Count this as a Tilt Democratic race.  See Len’s Political Note #789.  DONATE to Susan Trone Gariott.

Michigan 07. Lansing is in the middle of this district west northwest of Detroit.  Three Democrats are competing to face First Term Republican Congressman Thomas More Barrett.  The former ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink led in a poll she funded by 17 points.  Climate Activist William Lawrence led in a poll he funded by 8 points.  Ret Navy Seal and former Obama advisor Matt Maasdam funded a poll as well, but he trailed both Lawrence and Brink in that poll.  In a general election poll that Maasdam funded, he led Bassett by a point. Brink also led Bassett by a point.  In the financial race, Barrett has raised $5 million, Brink $2.3 million, Maasdam $1.7 million, and Lawrence much less.

Len’s Projection for Michigan 07.  Bridget Brink is likely to be the nominee in the August 4 primary.  Barrett won in 2024 50-47.  At best, he can expect his district remains a Toss-up.  See Len’s Political Note #742.  DONATE to Bridget Brink.

 New Jersey 07.  Northern Jersey, but not to the border.  West enough to be along the Pennsylvania border.  Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr was elected in 2022.  He is facing several challengers, among them himself.  He has been in the news for not being in Washington for a couple of busy months.  He’s ill and being treated, he says, without being specific.  He has raised money — $4.4 million.  Navy Veteran Rebecca Bennett’s $2.7 million was the most among Democrats.  She is followed by physician Tina Shah’s $2 million, Businessman Brian Varela’s $1.9 million, and former SBA official Michael Roth’s $1.2 million.  The rest are below a million dollars.  As for polls, there was one in February.  Rebecca Bennett led with 10 points, Tina Shah was second with 8 points.

Len’s Projection for New Jersey 07  Rebecca Bennett has the edge for the nomination – in the money race and a teeny edge in the only poll we have.  A 15 year stint in the National Guard – serving as a helicopter pilot, some of that as an experimental pilot.  She entered the Air Force through ROTC at Cornell.  While in the reserves, she got an MBA from Wharton.  She worked in health care, as she says, from start ups to Fortune 50 companies. Tom Kean Jr.’s absence from Washington is damaging enough to make the district Tilt Democratic.   DONATE to Rebecca Bennett.

New York 17. This district represents northern suburbs of New York City – Putnam County, Rockland County, and northern Westchester County.  Republican incumbent  Michael Lawler, formerly a political communications specialist, was initially elected in 2020.  County Legislator Beth Davidson is leading in two of three polls for the Democratic nomination. Former National Security Council official Cait Conley is leading in the third poll and is runner up in the other two. Peter Chatzky, President of the software development firm Napa Group was second in a poll he funded and had raised much more than any other candidate, but has suspended his campaign after “jokey” sexual comments online were unearthed. In the only general election poll, generic Democrat led Generic Republican by 5 points.  At the end of the first quarter Cait Conley, with $1.5 million at the end of the first quarter of 2026 led Beth Davidson in the financial race by nearly a 2-1 margin.  With $4.2 million at the end of the quarter, incumbent Michael Lawler had a comfortable financial lead.

Len’s Projection for New York 17.  Beth Davidson has an edge in the polls for the nomination; Cait Conley could have some resources remaining after the primary, but whichever candidate wins may have exhausted herself before facing Michael Lawler, a tough campaigner.  He may beat the headwinds, too, in this district that looks like it could Tilt Republican.  DONATE to Beth Davidson.

Ohio 09. From Lake Erie to the Indiana border, Republicans keep expanding the district west of Toledo in the hope of removing Marcy Kaptur from office.  Once a part of the Catholic left, now a moderate among Democrats, she sets records for longevity, having first been elected to Congress in 1982.  She will be opposed, this time, by former State Rep Derek Merrin. There are no polls for this race. Marcy Kaptur raised $3.4 million for this race and had $3.1 million in Mid-April.  Derek Merrin raised $800,000 and had $200,000 in mid-April shortly before the primary.

Len’s Projection for Ohio 09.  Marcy Kaptur had no primary opponent. She won the general election in 2025 by 1.3%.  Because there will be something of a blue wave and because Marcy Kaptur is admired, she should win one more time.  This is a Democratic Tilt. See Len’s Political Note #718. DONATE to Marcy Kaptur

Pennsylvania 07 Of the 18 Cook Toss-ups, three are from Pennsylvania.  In the two races below, the Democratic nominee was clear before the May 19 primary.  Not so much in this district.  Firefighter Union Leader Bob Brooks won the primary, but with only 40% of the vote. Winning with less than half the vote was an indication both of the strength of the other candidates and this endorsements by Democratic Party leaders who want to be their party to be the voice of unions again.  Bob Brooks is running against first term Congressman Ryan Mackenzie.  Mackenzie is in no danger of offending his President. He supported cuts in health care and food programs for the poor.  He supported tax cuts for the wealthy. His worst scandal is lying on a dating app about his age.  With Bob Brooks running with the support of just about everyone in the Democratic Party, what’s wrong with Ryan Mackenzie is that he is a Republican pol, a quality he learned from his mother with whom he served in the Pennsylvania state legislature.

Len’s Projection for Pennsylvania 07.  This is a Kamala Harris district.  Bob Brooks is returning the district and, incidentally, the Democratic Party to being the party of unions.  This is Tilt Democratic. DONATE to Bob Brooks

Pennsylvania 08. From Scranton and Wilks-Barre to the south and east.  First term Republican Congressman Rob Bresnahan had turned his grandfather’s electrical business to construction and then real estate development.  He spent a good deal of his term making money dealing stocks and received considerable criticism for it. His challenger, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, has received little criticism.  None from me. Notwithstanding her Harvard MBA, she loved the countryside of northeastern Pennsylvania, loved the food she found in an area restaurant, fell in love with the restaurateur’s son, and, counter to all common sense, fell in love with Scranton, where she is now the Mayor.  She brought integrity and imagination to governance as well as  a common touch.  There are no polls for this race. Bresnahan raised $4.5 million for this campaign and had $2.3 million available in late April.   Cognetti raised $3.1 million and had $2.3 million available on the same date in April.

Len’s Projection for Pennsylvania 08.  Paige Cognetti should be a valuable Democratic contributor to Congress.  This is a Tilt Democratic designation and could be a Lean D designation.  See Len’s Political Note #761. DONATE to Paige Cognetti.

Pennsylvania 10. The district, the center of which is the state capital Harrisburg, is not quite west enough to be in the center of of the state. The incumbent Republican Scott Perry was one of Donald Trump’s strongest supporters in the effort to help Trump remain in office despite the actual 2020 election results.  Janelle Stelson is a former Republican, a former television anchor, and the widow of a doctor she had met after she arrived and began working in television in the Harrisburg area.  She lost to Scott Perry by 1.2% in 2024 – a slightly more than 5,000 vote margin.  In Democratic funded polls in 2025, she led by 3 or 4 points. In the financial race, Stelson raised $4.6 million to his $4.4 million.  At the end of April, she had $3.3 million to his $2.3 million.

Len’s Projection for Pennsylvania 10.. Janelle Stelson should have won in 2024 and has the edge for 2026.  Tilt Democratic. See Len’s Political Note #741.  DONATE to Jenelle Stelson.

Texas 34. The district runs along Texas’s southeast coast from the Mexican border, but not as far north as Corpus Christi.  In the Trump induced Texas redistricting the district was made slightly more Republican.  With those revisions, the incumbent Republican Cruz led 50-48 for Senate instead of what actually happened in the district —  52-46 for the Democratic Congressman Allred. That is a swing of 8 points. Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez himself won the unrevised district by 2.5 points.  For 2026, a Republican funded poll using the new district lines showed the business-oriented, moderate Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez trailing Republican Army Veteran Eric Flores by a point. Vicente Gonzalez is leading Eric Flores in the financial race.  He raised $2.9 million to Flores’s $2.2 million.

Len’s Projection for Texas 34.. Vicente Gonzalez has been scrambling to stay in Congress, even changing districts once.  There are unpredictables here. How much of a bounce back will the Hispanic vote have from its Republicans lean in 2024?  How much of a blue wave with there be?  For now, this is a Toss-up.  You do want to see Trump’s redistricting Texas go up in flames.  See Len’s Political Note #720.  DONATE to Vicente Gonzalez.

Virginia 02. This backwards “L” of a district runs north and west of Virginia Beach and his heavily Navy.  A former Naval Commander, Elaine Luria spent almost all of her career on combat ships either in command or in charge of nuclear reactors.  She is from a Jewish family in Birmingham, Alabama.  Elected in 2020, she was ousted in 2022 by the Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans is a former Navy helicopter pilot and, subsequently, a nurse practitioner.  She has sought a middle way – suggesting no fraud in the 2020 election while saying the raid on Mar-a-Largo was unjustified, opposing abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.  Recently, she has faced criticism for agreeing on air with a radio commentator saying that Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, an African-American, should keep his “cotton-pickin’ hands off Virginia.”  That sounded racist to many.  There are no polls.  Kiggans has a financial edge. As of March 31, she had $3 million to Luria’s $2.3 million

Len’s Projection for Virginia 02. It is hard to know how the Virginia vote on redistricting and the state supreme court’s rejection of that vote will play out in the actual elections.  Call this a Toss-up.  See Len’s Political Note #780. DONATE to Elaine Luria.

Washington 03. The southwest corner of the state of Washington.  Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has a complicated story.  Daughter of a Texas evangelical preacher and a mother whose family had been in the state of Washington for generations, she went to the very liberal Reed College in Portland, Oregon, married a local guy, and together they opened an auto repair shop.  She was both comfortable and combative in this Trump-supporting conservative area.  When she ran for Congress, a extremist Republican bounced the Republican incumbent in the top two non-partisan primary.  Perez had led with 31% of the vote and won the run-off, a startling upset.  She won again in 2024, defeating Joe Kent again.  In 2026, she will face a more conventional candidate, the State Senate Minority Leader John Braun. The New York Times reports no polls, but Seattle media reports a poll in May with Braun leading by 7 points. In the financial race, Perez led at the end of the first quarter of 2026 $3.5 million to $900,000.

Len’s Projection for Washington 03. Balance the recent poll against Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s resources.  Balance the traditional conservatism of the district against Perez’s incumbency. Balance some district discomfort with Perez against the national distress with Trump.  This race is a Toss-up.  See Len’s Political Note #757.  DONATE to Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

Wisconsin 03.  The state’s west southwest, with an arm reading into the central part of the state.  The incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden is an aggressive and boorish Members of Congress.  He berated Congressional interns lying on the floor and looking up as they participated in their annual view of the Capitol Dome.  He threatened librarians and pushed books on the floor of a local library that had a display of LGBTQ focused books.  His elections have been close.  He lost a race against an incumbent in 2020, won by 3.7% in 2022 after the incumbent left office, and by 2.7% against Rebecca Cooke in 2024.  Cooke is the daughter of a family whose dairy farm could not compete against the big, mechanized dairies. They sold their cows on a farm that had been in the family for over a century.  Rebecca Cooke has run a small business, run a non-profit that she developed, and run for Congress.  She is trying again in 2026.  Active statewide in Democratic politics and popular, she has raised funds successfully and leads Van Orden in the financial race $4.4 million to $3.8 million cash on hand at the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Len’s Projection for Wisconsin 03.  In a news world dominated by the failures of the belligerent President, an earnest young woman may seem an antidote to a Congressman who is as belligerent as the president.  The District appears now to Tilt Democratic.  See Len’s Political Note #767.  DONATE to Rebecca Cooke. 

Florida 25   This district had been in Broward County and included cities like Hollywood.  Now it is coastal – from Delray Beach to Miami Beach.  But Ron DeSantis’s  changes were intended to both advantage Republicans and create chaos among Democrats. In some parts of Florida, Democrats wisely stood pat. On the Tampa side of the state, Kathy Caster is running in Florida 14 despite DeSantis making a Democratic win toughter.  And there are opportunities for Democratic wins. In Florida 13, Democratic Retired Brigadier General Leela Gray, for instance, is running against Republican Anna Paulina Luna and could win.

If Democrats held fast in South Florida’s East Coast, they could focus on winning even though many of the constituents are new to them. Instead, Ron DeSantis got his wish.  Instead, Democrats from South Florida’s East Coast are following a portion of their constituents to new districts creating chaos in their wake.

Frederica Wilson (You may remember her as the Black Congresswoman who overheard Donald Trump’s call to the mother of a Black soldier killed in Africa.  Wilson recalls Trump telling the mom her son knew what he signed up for.)  Frederica Wilson is not only staying in FL 20, but warning off displaced Members of Congress from her district and FL 24 which Ron DeSantis described as needing revision because it was gerrymandered to be represented by a Black Member of Congress.  Florida 24 is an open seat, the Congresswoman having resigned as she was being investigated for misusing federal money.  Lois Frankel of Florida 22  moved to Florida 23, Jared Moskowitz’s old district.  Jared Moskowitz fled from Florida 23 to Florida 25. Lois Frankel’s primary opponent, Oliver Larkin moved to Florida 25 where he will primary Jared Moskowitz. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz of Florida 25 wants to avoid districts that lean Republican.  She is deciding among Florida 20, Florida 22 (now pretty Republican), Florida 23 (and oppose Lois Frankel?), Florida 24 (and oppose Frederica Wilson?), and Florida 25 (and oppose Jared Moskowitz?). Is it possible that Ron DeSantis just loves having Black Democratic Members of Congress at odds with Jewish Democratic Members of Congress? Late word suggests Wasserman Schultz is leaning toward a run in Florida 20.

For those who may be in FL 25, at the end of the first quarter of 2026, Debbie Wasserman Schultz  had $2.5 million, Jared Moskowitz had $1.2 million, and Democratic Socialist Oliver Larkin had $200,000.  Among the Republicans, Mayor Scott Singer had $1.2 million, Businesswoman Claudia Villatoro had $750,000, and State Rep George Moraitis had $500,000.

Len’s Projection for Florida 25. This is all too recent, too uncertain to form an opinion, though Debbie Wasserman Schultz has a formidable amount of money available.  This race is too early to call for one candidate or party or another.  Call it a Toss-up. 

Summary