Len’s Political Note #810 Eight Florida House races. Can Democrats flip them?

May 8th   , 2026                          Len’s Political Note #810 Eight Florida House races. Can Democrats flip them?

2026                                              Primary and General Election

We need to stay focused on 2026.  Trump’s deep unpopularity assists Democrats in gaining control of the House of Representatives.  Nothing is automatic.  While almost all Republican Members of Congress have followed Trump with barely a question, some Republican Members of Congress are popular enough not to be affected by Trump’s unpopularity.

 Look now at the Republican Members of Congress who Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida Republican state legislators have left behind in their scheme to change the Florida Congressional delegation from the current 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats to 24 Republicans and 4 Democrats through mid-decade redistricting. Democrats, as we saw in Len’s Political Note #809, just might protect themselves.  They might also put a dent in that 20-8 Republican majority in the delegation.

As in the rest of the country, Democrats in Florida performed better in 2025 than in past elections.  Throughout the country, a not atypical Democratic performance was 13 points better than was expected. Call that an overperformance of 13 points.  While there is no guarantee that Democrats will do 13 points better than expected in a general election when the make-up of the voters is different from that of a special, absent anything else hopeful, that is what I am working with.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects election results.  For 2026, that organization examined what the Florida Congressional election results would have been if the 2024 elections occurred in districts with the 2026 map.  Similarly, that organizations identified what the Congressional District Presidential election results would have been in 2016, 2020, and 2024 if the districts were had been based on the 2026 map.  Consider what the vote would have been in the districts that each of the four targeted Democratic Members of Congress.  And then consider what would happen in 2026 if the Democrats have a 13 point overperformance .and the implication of such a Democratic overperformance for 2026.

I do this less as a genuine prediction and more as a basis for telling you where you should put your money.

Here are the Democratic challengers to vulnerable Republicans

  1. Florida 26. Attorney Nicole Locklin is the likely Democratic opponent to incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart. She is a remarkable candidate.  It is not so much her Oklahoma high school combo of Valedictorian, Student Council President, and  Basketball Captain.  Nor is her world backpacking tour by herself after being the first in her family to graduate from college.  Nor is it her technology law practice after getting a law degree. Nor is it her landing in Miami with a husband, a Black man,  who is now the Senior Director of Software Engineering for the Miami Dolphins. What strikes me is that she is the only candidate whose  campaign website has, as its top two issues, concerns that fit the times.  The most important things to address, she says, are corruption in Washington and the Iran War.  Her $75,000 at the end of the first quarter of 2026 is nothing in the face of the incumbents $2.2 million.  He is a major figure; she is not.  He is confident that his combination of  being a Republican stalwart and  the leader of the longstanding movement to punish Cuba until it acknowledges its Communist mistake will get him elected.
    1. Florida 26 was made much 21 points less Republican by redistricting. Before redistricting Florida 26 projected to be -27 for Democrats. After redistricting it is -6.   If those three presidential elections were calculated for what is now the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been a Tie.
      1. If Nicole Locklin overperformed by 13 points compared to that -6 projection, she would win the 2026 election by 7 points
      2. If Nicole Locklin overperformed by 13 points compared to the average presidential count for those three years she would win the 2026 election by 13 points.
    2. Help Nicole Locklin Point her in the right direction in the financial race. DONATE TO HER CAMPAIGN.  She can make a fight out of this.

Robein Peguero.    Elliot Rodriguez

  1. Florida 27. Democrats appear to have two serious candidates to choose between. Born in Rhode Island to an Ecuadorian mother who was a mail carrier and a Dominican school teacher father, 40 year old Robin Peguero grew up in Hialeah.  He is a Harvard Law graduate, a prosecutor, and a participant in the investigation of the January 6th  Tough on crime, he condemns the Trump administration for its anti-immigrant positions.  Of the Democrats in the race, he raised the most and closed out the first quarter of 2026 with the most — $460,000.  Elliot Rodriguez entered the race late, but raised enough to close out the quarter with $300,000. Born in the Bronx to Cuban immigrant parents and well known to members of the community as a television anchor, he excited local Democrats in a district that is majority Cuban.  He accuses the incumbent of not doing enough for immigrants Incumbent Maria Salazar of not doing enough for immigrants.  Also a former television anchor, she has several Emmys to her credit and is, inevitably, tied to Donald Trump’s presidency.  She promises to reduce costs and has raised far more than either Democrat.  She closed out the first quarter with $1.9 million Cash on Hand.  Most of us would be happy with either Democrat in place of Salazar.
    1. Florida 27 was  – 6 for Democrats before the redistricting and afterwards.  If those three presidential elections were calculated for what is now the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been +1 for Democrats.
      1. If either Robin Peguera or Elliot Rodriguez overperformed by 13 points, the Democratic candidate would win the 2026 election by 7 points
      2. If either Robin Peguera or Elliot Rodriguez overperformed by 13 points compared to the average presidential count for those three years the Democrat would win the 2026 election by 14 points.
    2. Choose your candidate and DONATE to Robin Peguera or DONATE to Elliot Rodriguez. Or wait until the Florida primary on August 18. But Salazar will keep raising money and may be out of reach by then.

  1. Florida 12 Chris Irizarry looks to be the Democratic nominee. A South Florida native, after he graduated from Florida Atlantic University, he joined the army.  He served a Blackhawk helicopter mechanic and inspector before retiring to join the CIA.  He intends to build a coalition of Democrats, unaffiliated voters, and Republicans to defeat the incumbent Republican Gus Bilirakis who was first elected to represent this district north of Tampa in 2012.  The son of a Congressman, he has replaced him providing 48 continuous years of representation by a Bilirakis.  Gus Bilirakis has promised to vote against any climate change legislation that would raise taxes, insisted the Affordable Care Act had Death Panels, and has an A rating from the NRA. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, he had $400,000 cash on hand.  That is not a lot, but way more than Chris Irizarry’s $10,000. 
    1. Florida 12 has become 20 points less Republican as a result of redistricting. The District is now -12 for Democrats; it had been -32.  If those three presidential elections were calculated for what is now the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been -8 for Democrats.
      1. If Chris Irizarry overperformed by 13 points compared to that -12 projection, he would win the 2026 election by 1 point
      2. If Chris Irizarry overperformed by 13 points compared to the average presidential count for those three years he would win the 2026 election by 5 points.
    2. Consider providing some help. DONATE TO Chris Irizarry’s
  1. Florida 16. With the incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan retiring the redistricting has created even greater uncertainty. No candidate has raised serious money.
    1. Florida 16 has become 5 points less Republican as a result of redistricting. The District is now -12 for Democrats; it had been -17.  If those three presidential elections were calculated for what is now the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been -8 for Democrats
      1. If the Democratic candidate overperforms by 13 points compared to that -12 projection, the Democrat would win the 2026 election by 1 point
      2. If the Democratic candidate overperforms by 13 points compared to the average presidential count for those three years he or she would win the 2026 election by 5 points.
    2. Help the Democratic candidate DONATE when we know who the nominee is.

  1. Florida 07. Bale Dalton, the former Chief of Staff for NASA is the front runner among Democrats for this District south of Daytona Beach that includes NASA Plaza. The Republican incumbent Cory Mills is beset by financial and sex scandals.  He has three Republicans trying to take his job.  Bale Dalton is one of six Democrats running.  Dalton ended the first quarter with $460 thousand, four times as much as the next Democrat. Incumbent Mills ended the quarter with $115,000.  None of the other Republicans were in six figures.
    1. Before and after redistricting, Florida 07 was measured as -12 for Democrats. If those three presidential elections were calculated based on the 2026 map for FL 07, they would have averaged -9 for the Democratic presidential candidate.
      1. If this does turn out to be Bale Dalton v Cory Mills and Dalton overperforms the projection for the Congressional race, the Democrat would win the 2026 election by 1 point.
      2. If we use the average of presidential elections as a measure, and Dalton overperforms that average by 13 points, he would win the election by 4 points.
    2. Help Bale Dalton Support him in the financial race. DONATE TO HIS CAMPAIGN. If Cory Mills is the Republican nominee against, Dalton just might be the favorite.

  1. Florida 04 The front runner for the Democratic nomination for this Jacksonville based district that reaches the coast at the Georgia border is attorney Michael Kirwin. A clue to his version of being a Democrat is that he is President of the local chapter of the Association for Corporate Growth.  He will be running against the incumbent Aaron Bean.  Elected after years in the Florida state legislature, he had opposed in-state college tuition for undocumented immigrants and, in general, opposed anything he saw as excessive spending.
    1. Before and after the 2026 redistricting, this district, which had already been redistricted in a way that led to replacement of a Black Democrat with a white Republican, was unchanged. It had been and continued to be an anticipated -14 for a Democratic candidate. Based on the average of the three. Presidential elections if the district were configured as it will be for the 2026 election, the average presidential victory was -10
      1. If this does turn out to be Michael Kirwin v Aaron Bean and Kirwin overperforms the projection for the Congressional race, the Democrat would lose the 2026 election by 1 point.
      2. If we use the average of presidential elections as a measure, and Kirwin overperforms that average by 13 points, he would win the election by 3 points.
    2. Help Michael Kirwin   Support him in the financial race. DONATE TO HIS CAMPAIGN.

  1. Florida 28 Economic Opportunity Advocate Hector Mujica switched from the Democratic Senate race when it became clear that Alexander Vindman would be the Democratic nominee. Hector Mujica has come to this South Florida election after working for Google – awarding grants to organizations that prepared people for opportunities in tech industries.  He had been overseeing $100 million worth of grants and has enough financial connections to compete.  Born in Venezuela, his parents immigrated to South Florida where Hector Mujica grew up.  He is taking on the incumbent, Carlos Gimenez, who had previously been the Fire Chief of Mayor of Miami-Dade County.  Gimenez closed out the first quarter of 2026 with $650,000 Cash on Hand.  Hector Mujica closed the quarter on his Senate race with less than $100,000.  He will need to use that and more to oppose Gimenez successfully.
    1. Florida 28 has has remained -13 for Democrats after the redistricting. If those three presidential elections were calculated for what is now the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been -5 for Democrats.
      1. If Hector Mujica overperforms by 13 points in a contest against Carlos Gimenez the projection for the Congressional race, the the race would be a tie or so close it would require a recount.
      2. If we use the average of presidential elections as a measure, and Mujica overperforms that average by 13 points, he would win the election by 5 points.
    2. Help Hector Mujica Support him in the financial race. DONATE TO HIS CAMPAIGN. He can make a fight out of this election

        1. Florida 13  Nine Democrats have lined up to take on the incumbent in this district on the Gulf of Mexico coast, which includes Clearwater and part of St. Petersburg.  Retired Brigadier General Leela Gray is the favorite for the Democratic nomination.  The former Deputy Commanding General of CENTCOM, it is hard to imagine a more solid Democratic candidate.  She is running against the erratic incumbent Anna Paulina Luna.  Of all of those Democratic candidates Leela Gray, with $500,000 was the only one to finish the first quarter six figures available for the rest of the campaign.  Anna Paulina Luna had $1.4 million. a.
          • Florida 13 has become 2 points more Republican as a result of redistricting. The District is now -13 for Democrats; it had been -11.  If those three presidential elections were calculated for what is now the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been -10 for Democrats.
            1. If we use the calculated -13 for Democrats of the District and Gray overperforms the projection for the Congressional race, the 2026 election be a tie or at least so close to a tie it would require a recount.
            2. If we use the average of presidential elections as a measure,and Gray overperforms that average by 13 points, she would win the election by 3 points.
          • Help Leela Gray Support her in the financial race. DONATE TO HER CAMPAIGN.  She could win this election, especially as people see Luna’s weaknesses.  See Len’s Political Note #805.

 

Last Thoughts

 

The idea of a 13 point overperformance for every candidate is a fantasy.  But substantial overperformances by Democrats have been consistent through 2025.  Things can change. And general elections are different from specials.  But just as it would not be a shock if, as a result of all this energy, Texas were limited to a net gain of two seats, Florida could net no more than 2 seats, maybe fewer.  All the while, if it gets past the state supreme court, Virginia’s gain of 4 seats looks solid.  California’s 5 seat gain seems equally solid.