September 28th, 2026 Len’s Political Note #842 Todd Achilles Idaho US Senate
2026 General Election
On September 18, a startling poll was hidden in a few corners of the internet. This poll was as surprising as Angie Nixon’s primary victory in Florida or the poll showing her tied with the Incumbent Republican Senator. This poll was as surprising as polls that show Annie Andrews leading in South Carolina or Adam Hamilton leading in Kansas. Democrats all.
The startling poll showed businessman, public policy professor, political independent, and former tank commander Todd Achilles leading the incumbent Republican Senator, Jim Risch. If the race were head to head, this poll of Registered Voters showed Todd Achilles ahead 50-39.
There are flaws in this version of the poll. A poll close to the general election should look at Likely Voters. Nor should it leave out the Libertarian Party candidate in a place like Idaho. Matt Loesby, whose campaign slogan is Stop Doing Evil, will get votes in Idaho.
The same poll asked seperately which candidate they would support and this time included three options: Todd Achilles, the Incumbent Senator Jim Risch, and software engineer and chair of the state Libertarian Party Matt Loesby. In that poll of Registered voters, the result was Todd Achilles 46%, the incumbent Senator Jim Risch was still stuck at 39%, and Matt Loesby 5%.
The Democratic nominee, David Roth, had withdrawn in favor of Todd Achilles. Roth thought there was a chance that Todd Achilles could defeat the incumbent.
At 83, Jim Risch is pretty old to be running for reelection. The Idaho Falls Post Register had a July headline saying exactly that: “Sen. Jim Risch too old for a sixth Senate term.” Newspapers sometimes get it wrong. Jim Risch may be too old for a fourth Senate term, which is what he is running for.
Donald Trump has endorsed Risch. So has the US Chamber of Commerce. The Federation of Government Employees has endorsed Todd Achilles. That is not necessarily a great endorsement in Idaho, where federal government employees are not loved.
Jim Risch was initially elected to office at the age of 27 as a county prosecutor. He was subsequently elected to the state senate in 1974. While serving in these part-time positions, Jim Risch became wealthy. It was not just that he made money from his successful law practice. He apparently did not spend his money. He invested in real estate, agricultural land, the insurance industry, and more.
What Jim Risch invested in, appreciated. By 2006, he had the resources to self-fund a campaign for Lt. Governor — spending $360,000 on the primary and the general. He served briefly as Governor after Governor Dirk Kempthorne was appointed Secretary of the Interior. Jim Risch’s time as Governor provides clues about his views and his self-interest. He organized passage of the “Tax Relief Act” of 2006, cutting real estate taxes by $260 million and raising $210 million through a six percent sales tax. He followed it up with a referendum on the “tax reform” which got overwhelming public support.
His time as governor put him in a position to be elected to the US Senate in 2008. As a US Senator, he occasionally made news for the wrong things. Jim Risch fell asleep during Trump’s second impeachment trial. He held up a budget bill in an attempt to oppose naming a Wilderness Area in memory of a former political opponent, the recently deceased former Idaho Democratic Governor of Idaho, Cecil Andrus.
On the whole, Jim Risch has been a conventional Republican. Initially, he criticized the January 6 insurrectionists. He opposed limitations on what he saw as gun rights. He opposed abortions. Sometimes, he took positions that went beyond that of most Republicans. He opposed expanding the health care benefits for veterans to address conditions created by exposure to burn pits. He opposed a bi-partisan criminal justice reform effort along with only 11 other Senators.
Todd Achilles presents himself as a generational alternative and an independent one, at that. Briefly, when he was appointed by the Governor to fill a legislative seat that had been held by a Democrat, he became a Democrat. He was reelected as a Democrat. But he resigned, returned to his independent status, and planned his run for the US Senate as an Independent.
Todd Achilles argued that the two-party system is broken. The system blocked two major problems from being solved – the national debt and foreign policy. He argued that the national debt, which had increased from $10 Billion to $40 Billion during Jim Risch’s tenure, threatens the country’s long-term security.
Eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse, he acknowledged, was a part of what is needed to reduce the annual deficit, but so is recovering revenue that people owe; revenue losses that occur because not everyone plays by the same rules. The American elite and corporations, Todd Achilles says, rely on loopholes that ought to be closed. He would work against corporate socialism, predatory non-compete clauses, and excessive stock buybacks so ordinary individuals have an opportunity to innovate and advance.
Todd Achilles promises to fight to break our country’s cycle of endless wars, wars that are inconsistent with our interests. These wars and the failure to properly care for veterans of those wars erodes our citizens’ willingness to fight for their country. His goals include reassertion of Congress’s authority over war and peace, ensuring that only people fit for responsibilities like Secretary of Defense be confirmed, and eliminating bureaucratic delays in providing services to veterans.
There’s more. Todd Achilles argues that legal immigration has helped build America; that he would work to returning the country to that tradition. He reminds his prospective constituents that Idaho’s constitution guarantees the right to a quality education and that greater federal investment in public education, including rural schools and universities, is a necessity. And finally, he promises policies that are good for agriculture – crop insurance, agricultural workforce programs, agricultural research, and trade programs that are fair and helpful to farmers.
Todd Achilles has a chance to win this election, a chance to transform the political conversation. Help give him that chance. DONATE to his campaign. On June, 30, 2026, about a year after he announced his campaign, Todd Achilles had $200,000 available for the balance of his campaign. Incumbent Jim Risch had $3.5 million.
Other long shot candidates
Two women in the South have already been moved out of the Long Shot category:
Florida: Angie Nixon: DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #841.
South Carolina: Annie Andrews. DONATE. See the supplemental section of Political Note #841 and Len’s Political Note #800
One more woman of the South
Arkansas: Farmer and blogger Hallie Shoffner opposes Incumbent Tom Cotton. Imaginative and positive, she is worth some support. There are two polls from August. Cotton leads one 51-39. Hallie Shoffner leads the other 47-44. There ought to be polls from September. We need to know more clearly whether Hallie Shoffner has a shot. DONATE to her campaign. See Len’s Political Note #786.
Black Men of the South
Mississippi: Scott Colom, the three times elected District Attorney in a majority white district, is running against the unpopular incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. There is one poll of Likely Voters from August which was funded by a Democratic PAC. Hyde-Smith led Scott Colom in a head to head match 47-41. When the independent candidate nominated by the Democrats in the last Senate election was included, the result was similar: Hyde-Smith 44, Scott Colom 38, Pinkens 7. DONATE to Scott Colom’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #764.
Louisiana: Farmer Jamie Davis’s son is now running the family farm, a farm substantially larger than, but includes land his grandfather share cropped. Jamie Davis is an indefatigable politician running against Congresswoman Julia Letlow. She emerged from the vicious primary and run-off to gain the Republican nomination. There are no polls for a contest between Jamie Davis and Julia Letlow. DONATE to Jamie Davis’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #823.
Kentucky: Charles Booker, Governor Andy Beshear’s appointee to head the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives and Community Involvement is the founder of the movement From the Hood to the Holler. An August poll funded by Charles Booker of Likely Voters reported in September had him trailing extremist Republican Congressman Andy Barr 49-40. It is worth an investment to bar Andy Barr from the Senate. DONATE to Charles Booker’s campaign.
And Two More Independent White Men
South Dakota Retired Air Force Lt. Colonel, attorney, sometime park ranger, and political independent Brian Bengs. is running against incumbent Mike Rounds. The Democratic nominee withdrew in his favor. A late August poll of Registered Voters funded by Brian Bengs and reported in September had them tied 44-44. An early September poll of Likely Voters, also funded by Brian Bengs had Incumbent Republican Mike Rounds leading 45-42. This is another instance of the Democrat withdrawing from the race creating a race which could defeat a Republican Senator. DONATE to Brian Bengs’ campaign. See Len’s Political Note #774.
Montana: First in his class at West Point, former President of the University of Montana, Seth Bodnar might win if the Democratic nominee, Alina Bankhead withdrew from the race against Republican switcheroo nominee former US Attorney Kurt Alme. (The incumbent withdrew his candidacy in favor of Kurt Alme at the last minute when no other Republican had time to collect signatures to run.) An August poll of Likely Voters funded by Alme and reported in September had this result: Alme 44, Seth Bodnar 22, and Bankhead 19. A mid-September poll of Registered Voters reported: Alme 38, Seth Bodnar 30, and Bankhead 16. A slightly later mid-September poll of Likely Voters reported: Alme 44, Seth Bodnaar 24, Bankhead 23. The Democratic nominee Alina Bankhead is adamant she will not withdraw. A negative campaign focused on Bankhead might have the same effect as creating a head-to-head race with Alme. DONATE to Seth Bodnar’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #797.
