September 7th, 2026 Len’s Political Note #837 Supplement: Close and Toss-up House races in former Confederate States.
2026 General Election
Florida 07 Former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton
Florida 09 Incumbent Darren Soto
Florida 25 Incumbent FL 23 Jared Moskowitz
North Carolina 11 Farmer Jamie Ager
Virginia 01 Prosecutor Shannon Taylor
Virginia 02 Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria
Texas 15 Tejano Musician Bobby Pulido
Texas 23 Attorney Katy Padilla Stout
Texas 35 Johnny Garcia Sheriff’s Office Public Information Officer
Texas 34 Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez
In additiol to the financial information I mention for each candidate, “mega-donors have raised more than a billion dollars for Republican candidates See this New York Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/28/us/politics/billionaire-midterms-donors.html
Florida 07. Former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton. See Len’s political Note #837 from yesterday. DONATE
Florida 09. Incumbent Darren Soto’s district is #4 on Nate Silver’s “close” list. Darren Soto, is a Puerto Rican from New Jersey in what had been, but after redistricting the Orlando area, is no longer, a district with a substantial Puerto Rican population. Republican Dan Green won his primary with a touch more than 25% of the vote. A Navy veteran for 23 years, he has written three books on foreign policy. Darren Soto has opposed President Trump’s deportation practices, been a conservation advocate for Florida, and for gun safety legislation. There are no polls. Darren Soto raised $2.2 million and had $1.2 million available on July 29. Green raised $1.3 million and had $400,000 on July 29. DONATE to Darren Soto. You can make a difference here.
Florida 25 Jared Moskowitz is a moderate Democrat in a district described as a Toss-up by Cook. A state Senator during the shooting at Marjorie Stoneham Douglass High School which was in his district, he was able to get the Florida legislature pass some modest gun safety legislation. He served as Florida’s “FEMA” person to widespread praise. In Congress, he has been a strong advocate for Israel and has just been named the ranking member of the Middle East and North African subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. His opponent to represent this redistricted district is Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer. Singer describes himself as a strong supporter of law enforcement and of the military. There have been no recent polls. Jared Moskowitz raised $3 million and had $1.9 million available on July 29. Scott Singer raised $2.2 million and had $500,000 remaining on July 29. DONATE to Jared Moskowitz. This is a seat Democrats do not want to lose.
North Carolina 11 Farmer Jamie Ager is the grandson of a former Congressman from this district. With this run for an open, formerly Republican seat, he would bring the district back to the Democrats. The seat is open because the incumbent, chastised by the ethics committee for sexual improprieties decided against running for reelection. His defense: “ Poetry is not sexual misconduct” was unlikely to help him win. Jamie Ager’s priorities are to complete the recovery from Hurricane Helene, to ensure accessible and affordable health care, and to reduce costs in areas that range from energy to child care. The Republican nominee is State Rep Jennifer Balkcom. In the legislature, Ballcom has advocated cutting or eliminating the state income tax in order to combat inflation, opposed Medicaid expansion, and spent considerable energy to combat any hint of transgender discussion or inclinations in the public schools. The district is #3 on Silver’s list of close House races. There are no recent polls for the general election. Jamie Ager raised $3.1 million for the race and had $2.2 million available on June 30. For the period ending that date, Balkcom did not report any information as of June 30. DONATE to Jamie Ager’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #783.
Virginia 01. County Attorney Shannon Taylor is running against incumbent Republican Rob Wittman. Among her actions as a County Prosecutor, she called for a special prosecutor from outside the county to prosecute a local political figure, added a deputy prosecutor who focused on police integrity, and prosecuted and convicted a KKK figure who drove his car into a crowd of protestors. Rob Wittman has been a Member of Congress since his success in a special election in 2007. Among his activities in Congress, he co-sponsored a bill defining human life as beginning at conception and attempted to invalidate the 2020 election both by signing an amicus brief to the Supreme Court urging it to overturn the election and by refusing to vote to certify the election results. This race is #7 on Silver’s list of close races. There are no recent polls. The incumbent Republican has a substantial financial lead. He raised $4.1 million and, with funds from previous years, had $4.3 million available on July 15. Shannon Taylor raised $2.1 million for the campaign and had $1 million available on July 15. Help her compete. DONATE to Shannon Taylor’s campaign.
Virginia 02 Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria is in a rematch with Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans who ousted her from Congress in 2022 in this district that Cook sees as a Toss-up. A former Navy Commander, she was an engineer operating nuclear reactors on board ship and commanded a combat ship. She calls herself a security Democrat and was the only Democrat to oppose the 2022 resolution to end the authorization for the use of force in Iraq. She favors gun safety laws and, in part because she rejects funds from PACs, was endorsed by End Citizens United. Jen Kiggans was a navy pilot and is a supporter of veterans’ interests. She voted for the Big Beautiful Bill then attempted to mitigate its impact by supporting an unsuccessful proposal to extend health insurance premium subsidies for a year. Cook describes the race as a Toss-up. A mid-July poll found the race even. The financial race gives Kiggans a slight edge. Elaine Luria raised $4.7 million and had $3.6 million on July 15. Kiggans raised $6 million and had $3.4 million on July 15. DONATE to Elaine Luria’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #780.
Texas 15 Tejano musician Bobby Pulido, opposes Republican incumbent Monica de la Cruz, in one of three Texas districts identified as among the closest by Silver. Wins by the four Texas Democrats noted today would counteract Texas’s Trump induced redistricting. Bobby Pulido is a moderate Democrat, very nearly an independent. He includes the following couplet in his website: He’s not Team Red. He’s not Team Blue/South Texas, He is Team You. Former realtor Monica de la Cruz may be more Team Me and My Friends. She earmarked $2.4 million for her friend’s project the Angels of Love Advocacy Project and was set for a joint press conference when Della Fay Perez was arrested, charged with obtaining $500,000 in a Ponzi scheme. Both a July poll and an August poll had Bobby Pulido leading by six points. He is trailing in the financial race. He raised $2.4 million and had $1.6 million available on June 30. De la Cruz raised $5.3 million and had $2.5 milion available on June 30. DONATE to Bobby Pulido’s campaign. Help him keep his lead. See Len’s Political Note #796.
Texas 23 Democrat Katy Padilla Stout was a teacher and now has a law practice in which she primarily represents children in the foster care system. Her political focus is making the economy fairer – through fixes in the tax system, the medical system, and support for the needy. The Republican incumbent, Tony Gonzalez, withdrew after it became known that an aide with whom he had an affair committed suicide. The other Republican in the run off and now the nominee is Brandon Herrera. He is a shocking candidate for Congress. Often described as a gun manufacturer, he is more of a celebrity-like activist who glorifies guns and hatred. He created a video in 2023 that “recreated” and, perhaps, celebrated the assassination of Martin Luther King. A member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans, he advertised the organization’s annual “Yankee shoot.” Criticized for his use of Nazi songs and weaponry, for describing a German submachine gun as “the original Ghetto blaster,” he responded by saying that it “should be obvious,…I am not, nor ever have been, a neo-Nazi.” That response leaves open the possibility that he considers himself to be an actual Nazi. This race is among Nate Silver’s closest races in the country. Alarmingly, though it is quite a while ago, in a March poll Herrera led Katy Padilla Stout by 2 points. Herrera raised $2 million and had $300,000 on June 30. Katy Padilla Stout raised $500,000 and had $200,000 on June 30. If you are going to donate to any of the candidates in this group, DONATE to Katy Padilla Stout. You will be doing the country a service.
Texas 35 Johnny Garcia is another Democrat Nate Silver identifies as being in one of the closest races. He won the Democratic run off receiving national support when the leader from the multi-candidate first round, far left Maureen Galindo, horrified Democrats around the country by calling for the castration and internment of Zionists in just one of her anti-Semitic remarks. Johnny Garcia is the Public Information Officer for the Bexar County Sheriff’s office, an office he joined when he was 21. He says that public safety is more than tough talk, it means making kids feel safe in school, ensuring access to health care for families, providing communities with affordable housing and economic opportunity. His Republican opponent, Air Force Vet Carlos de la Cruz is the Texas 15 incumbent’s brother. He describes himself as a Texas Trump Conservative. That can make him seem harmless compared to Republican Brandon Herrera and Democrat Maureen Galindo, but his first priority is supporting ICE and its counterparts. He describes the undocumented as criminals and cartel-members. In his website, he calls his volunteers the Calvary for Carlos. It is unlikely he is comparing his supporters to the hill on which Jesus was crucified. More likely, he’s just got it wrong. He means to describe his volunteers as his Cavalry. That is not the only thing he gets wrong. There are no polls for this district election. Financially, these two candidates are evenly matched. De la Cruz raised $1 million and had a little less than $300,000 on June 30. Johnny Garcia raised $900,000 and had a little more than $300,000 on June 30. DONATE to Johnny Garcia. It could make a difference.
Texas 34 Vicente Gonzalez is running in a district Cook considers a Toss-up. Vicente Gonzalez is a business-oriented Congressman who had moved from Texas 15 to Texas 34 to find a more welcoming electorate. He notes his votes to make life more affordable – among them extension of the child tax credit and making it illegal for insurers to charge older people more than others. When he notes his efforts to increase jobs he includes increases in the number of permits for LNG projects and millions appropriated for infrastructure – building roads and bridges and deepening the ship channel. His Republican opponent is army veteran Eric Flores. Flores’ campaign ties him to national Republicans. This is probably not a good year for that. Many constituents have lost their health insurance because of the Big Beautiful Bill. Even though South Texans generally oppose illegal immigrants crossing the border, most have been horrified by the treatment of both undocumented and documented immigrants by ICE. Cook sees this race as a Toss-up. The only recent poll, a poll in August had Vicente Gonzalez ahead by 3 points. Vicente Gonzalez raised $3.8 million for his campaign and had $2.5 million on June 30. Eric Flores raised $2.9 million and had $700,000 remaining on June 30. DONATE to Vicente Gonzalez’ campaign. You can help him stay ahead of his Republican opponent.
