September 6th, 2026 Len’s Political Note #837 Bale Dalton Florida 07
2026 General Election
Bale Dalton
As we move into the home stretch, I had plans to write about Congressional candidates – to help ensure that Democrats control the House of Representatives. I was going to rely on the Toss Ups in Cook’s Political Report. Now Nate Silver has begun his ratings – teasing us to purchase entry by showing us in tiny print the 15 closest House races. For the purpose of identifying which Democrats to support for the House of Representatives, the 15 closest House races is what I need.
I have combined Cook’s Toss Ups and Silver’s closest. I’ve divided them up into regions. Former Confederate States, the Northeast, the Midwest, and the Far West. As the political winds have shifted toward the Democrats, Nate Silver’s late entry is picking up newly close races. I will use both sources as I choose who I write to you about and encourage you to support.
Democrat Bale Dalton is trying to flip Florida 07 — a district that stretches from Daytona Beach to north of Orlando includes NASA Plaza. Nate Silver counts this race as the 2nd closest in the House. That NASA Plaza inclusion is important because Bale Dalton is the former Chief of Staff for NASA.
The district is an open seat because Republicans ousted the incumbent in the August 11 Primary. Cory Mills was in trouble. He was faced with both a sex scandal (threatening to distribute explicit photographs of an ex-girlfriend, for one) and a financial scandal (not disclosing that he was illegally obtaining government contracts as a Member of Congress, for another). Bale Dalton’s opponent in November will be the Republican primary winner, former television anchor Ryan Elijah. After a year at Liberty University, Ryan Elijah transferred to Anderson University in Indiana a school whose mission is to educate its students in a “life of faith and service in the church and society.” He promises to drive down “costs for American families” that are caused by “out of control government spending.” He would drive the cost of health care down through “patient-centered health care options.” He champions parental rights and school choice in education as well as “Faith, Family, and Life.”
Bale Dalton is a navy man. A graduate of the Naval Academy, he spent 13 years in active duty, 11 in the reserves. He flew helicopters in combat and in special operations in Africa. After he completed his service, he became a staffer in the US Senate and worked in the private sector improving efficiency. In his return to public service, he managed 16,500 employees as NASA’s chief of staff – touching the lives of many people who live in Florida’s 7th Congressional District. His plan for addressing increasing costs is to reverse health care premium increases and end Trump’s illegal tariffs. Then he would address utility costs in what he called “state sanctioned monopolies…”. Other goals include a plan to protect seniors from Medicare cost increases and social security cuts, to protect girls and women from health care limitations such as Florida’s 6 week abortion ban. Finally, he points to examples of specific Trump administration waste he would put an end to and reminds people of his experience in reducing costs in industry.
Bale Dalton has a case to make in this formerly Republican district that just might be ready to elect a Democrat. Nate Silver rates this district as the second closest Congressional race in the country. There are no recent polls. This has not been a big spending campaign so far. Bale Dalton raised a total of $1.4 million and had $500,000 available on July 29. Ryan Elijah raised a total of $350,000 and had $200,000 available on July 29. DONATE to Bale Dalton’s campaign. It could make a difference.
Tomorrow: Watch for the supplement to today’s piece. Several more close and Toss-up House races in the former Confederate States.
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