Political Note #507 Texas elections

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September 25th, 2022        Political Note #507 Texas Elections

2022                                          General Election

Texas is famous for being big.  It is big.  The second biggest in area after Alaska.  The second most population after California.  For some Texans, second place grates.  If we thought of the US and the EU together, the competition would be different.  Greenland is bigger than Alaska and Texas.  Several European countries have more people than Texas – Germany, France, the UK (not a part of the EU), Spain, Ukraine, and Poland.  Texas would be 8th.

The Governor of Texas is a national figure. In a year without a US Senate race in Texas, the election of a Texas governor attracts a lot of attention.  Other statewide races attract attention, too.   A Democratic victory in any of the state-wide races could be the beginning of the Democratic dream – to turn the great state of Texas blue just as California has turned blue.

Governor

Beto O’Rourke (Political Note #431) entered the national scene running for the Senate against Ted Cruz.  He seemed to be a quirky, interesting man with an appeal to young people based on his first career as a rock musician.  His quirkiness seemed problematic when he considered a presidential run in 2020. In 2022, in his run against the mean-spirited Greg Abbott, Beto O’Rourke is demonstrating a toughness and seriousness and maturity that was not as visible previously.  His angry and obscene response to a heckler regarding the Uvalde murders is representative of that toughness and seriousness.  He has taken some criticism for the language, but I’ll take the anger as a sign that he is a grown up dealing with people who have been misguided by a petulant youth in the guise of an old man.   That single outburst was the rough equivalent of Joe Biden’s anti-MAGA speech. A strong enough finish in the next month and a half to gain a majority of votes in Texas would be a remarkable achievement for Beto O’Rourke.

  • On September 21, 538 projected that Beto O’Rourke would win 6 times in 100. His probable loss would be 43 to 54.2
  • Recent polls are helpful
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on September 18th that O’Rourke was trailing 43 – 50
    • A media funded B/C rated poll reported on September 13th that O’Rourke was trailing 38-47
    • An organization committed to free enterprise and free expression funded B/C rated poll reported on September 7th that O’Rourke was trailing 39-42
    • A university funded B+ rated poll reported on September 6th that O’Rourke was trailing 40-45
    • An independently funded B+ rated poll reported on August 29th that O’Rourke  was trailing 42-49
    • An independently funded B/C rated poll reported on August 7th that O’Rourke was trailing 39-46
    • An independently funded B+ rated poll reported on July 7th that O’Rourke was trailing 42-47
  • On July 15, Beto O’Rourke reported that he had raised more than $27 million since the beginning of the year. He did not report how much cash he had in hand, though he reported nearly $7 million cash in hand at the end of June.  Greg Abbott reported that he raised nearly $25 million during that same period.  He also reported that he had more than $45 million cash in hand.

Lt. Governor

In Texas, the Lt. Governor is a work horse.  He (so far there have been no female Lt. Governors) appoints committee chairs, assigns bills to committees, and has enough other independent responsibilities to make him a powerful figure separate from the Governor.  Mike Collier (Political Note #496) is the Democratic nominee to defeat the incumbent Dan Patrick.

Mike Collier was a CPA.  Corporate types with big ambitions call CPAs bean counters.  Mike Collier counted big beans. He spent 22 years working for Price Waterhouse, his last ten working on mergers and acquisitions of energy companies.  That went so well he co-founded an energy company of his own – Layline Petroleum. His position in the company?  CFO.  He was in charge of the money.

He always had political ambitions.  At the University of Texas, he was advised to make money first, which he did.  While raising a family, he developed a focus for his ambitions – quality public schools for Texas.  For the second time now, he is taking aim at Dan Patrick – radio broadcaster, owner of a chain of sports bars, talk radio host and radio station owner.  In that last role Patrick earned the distinction of being the first to hire Rush Limbaugh.  He led the charge to remove Bill Maher from his network television show after 9/11.  His first act as a State Senator was to introduce a bill to make abortion illegal should Roe v Wade be overturned.  As for education, he was willing to raise teachers’ salaries, but sought to end tenure for teachers and to fire teachers who taught critical race theory.  He wanted to prohibit schools from requiring the writings of Martin Luther King Jr., Cesar Chavez, and Susan B Anthony.  Help elect Mike Collier. 

  • There is no equivalent to 538 for projections for down ballot races like Lt. Governor. Instead, note that Collier has captured the local control, lower taxes, and fewer state mandates for schools position against Dan Patrick.  Similarly, he has been attacking Patrick for refusing to call a special session of the legislature to deal with issues related to the Uvalde shooting.  What is more, he has been recruiting Republicans to his cause and getting some endorsements. He reminds Republicans that he switched parties ten years ago because of how extreme the Republican Party had become.
  • Polls are helpful
    • An independently funded poll reported in mid-July that Collier was trailing Patrick by 5 points, about the same amount by which he lost to Patrick in 2018.
  • In September, a local television station reported that Mike Collier had raised $3 million. Dan Patrick had raised $27 million.

Attorney General

Rochelle Garza (Political Note #472) would not be the first woman to gain high office in Texas.  There have been women governors. Ann Richards is legendary; though maybe not quite as legendary as Miriam “Ma” Ferguson who was governor from 1933 to 1935. Rochelle Garza would be the first woman and first Latina Texas Attorney General.  A Brown graduate, she got her law degree from the University of Houston and joined her father’s firm.  She left the firm to represent unaccompanied minor children who the US was trying to remove after they entered the country.  Her role led to a US Supreme Court case regarding a girl she represented who wanted an abortion.  In her run for Attorney General, Rachel Garza recounts failures by the current Attorney General – civil rights failures, failures to address health care costs and covid solutions, failures to consumers in the power grid and a lack of clean water, a failure to support the legalization of cannabis, and a failure with immigrants, allowing, even supporting, the governor’s callous attitude toward migrants.

The opponent she is running against, Ken Paxton, is well known for being under indictment for securities fraud.  Texans don’t seem to mind that, perhaps because the case does not seem to be going anywhere.  Will they mind Paxton’s effort to overturn the 2020 election?  Maybe not.  Many like it that he is at the head of the pack in this effort.  Here’s what they might find offensive:  a video of him stealing a $1,000 pen.  That was so embarrassing that he gave it back.  Help Rochelle Garza bring integrity to Texas’s Attorney General office.

  • There is no equivalent to 538 for projecting wins for Attorneys General. You can be assured, however, that she is the underdog.  That does not mean she will lose.
  • A mid-August poll showed Rochelle Garza trailing Paxton 32-34.  In that same poll, 41% said they approved of Paxton; 40% said the disapproved of him.  One or two point differences will not necessary make Paxton a winner in November.
  • Fund raising could make Paxton a winner. A September report found that Rochelle Garza had raised $ 1million, Paxton had raised $12 million.

Other races

Comptroller

Accountant and Auditor Janet Dudding v Inc Glen Hegar.  Janet Dudding worked for the state auditor investigating crimes.  She moved with her husband to Waveland, MS and returned after Hurricane Katrina to be Budget Manager, then Assistant Director of Finance for the city of College Station. She returned to Waveland to fix their finances, which she did, and came home to work for Texas A & M.  She took early retirement and trained herself up in politics so she could run for Comptroller.

Incumbent Glen Hegar starts off telling us he is a “True Conservative defending the values of faith, family, and freedom.” His website has a weekly Bible verse. He does not say much about the job he is doing, though he explains he is an advocate of a more diverse Texas economy and transparent government.  If you are not tapped out, you could give something to Janet Dudding.

 

State Land Commissioner

Conservationist and Businessman Jay Kleberg v State Senator and Surgeon Dawn Buckingham. George P. Bush left this job to run for Attorney General. Jay Kleberg wants the job out of his respect for the land. He was raised on and descends from generations of senior figures on The King Ranch.  The former Associate Director of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Federation, he is the co-founder and managing director of Explore Ranches.  He is also a film director creating feature length films with conservationist themes.

If elected, Dawn Buckingham would fight what she believes to be the Green New Deal. Instead, Texas should rely on its oil and natural gas reserves to achieve national energy independence. Lowering taxes and reducing red tape, she believes she could fight inflation successfully.  She would preserve the $1 Billion revenue Texas public schools receive from oil and gas land leases and would fight the human traffickers bringing the poison of drugs to Texas.  She denounces Jay Kleberg as a leftist, a shocking idea for those familiar with generations of management of the King Ranch. Help Jay Kleberg become Texas’s mainstream.

State Agriculture Commissioner

Attorney and cannabis legalization advocate Susan Hays v Inc Sid Miller.  Susan Hays touts a family that began farming after the Civil War. A graduate of Texas and Georgetown Law School, she has been a legislative aid and a clerk for the Texas Supreme Court.  In private practice at Aiken Gump, she co-founded Jane’s Due Process to protect pregnant minors. For the past few years, she has been working on the legalization of cannabis.  She has also become an expert on campaign law.

Incumbent Sid Miller is a Texas institution. He became a State Rep in 2000 and was elected commissioner in 2014. He is proud of increasing the efficiency of the Department, of his fight against childhood obesity by encouraging healthy eating.  He promotes Texas agriculture and is known for that throughout the world.  Still, if you would like to see legal cannabis in Texas, support Susan Hays. 

 

State Railroad Commission

 

Political Consultant and Democratic activist Luke Warford v Inc Wayne Christian. Luke Warford worked for the World Bank and for the Obama Campaign.  He worked in economic development and for the Hillary Clinton campaign. He worked on legal risk issues for Facebook and for what is now Denton’s (a giant law firm) Global Advisors and for the Texas Democratic Party.  He explains that the Railroad Commission  (which has three commissioners) oversees the energy industry in Texas and he is running to fix the Texas grid and to ensure that the entire industry embraces the modern world.

Incumbent Wayne Christian starts out saying he fights “frivolous” regulation, supports the free market, and his goal is American Energy Dominance.  He says he  is fighting the Green New Deal and the Paris Climate Agreement. You might consider a donation to Luke Warford’s campaign. Warford reports that the latest internal poll found him down by 4 points to Christian.

If Democrats are going to make gains in Texas, it will be at the state level.  The focus of the Texas legislature’s redistricting was to preserve the Republican dominated delegation and to minimize contested races.  There are four Congressional races worth mentioning.

Competitive Congressional Races

 TX 34 D+17

Vicente Gonzalez (Political Note #362) is the incumbent for TX 15.  Redistricting made the neighboring TX 34 district much more Democratic.  If Republicans were going to redistrict, he would put himself in a position to win. Attacking him as a socialist, as happened in 2020, is ridiculous.  He is a business-oriented Congressman. As an attorney in private practice, he represented plaintiffs.  He won substantial awards for clients.  In Congress, he belonged to the Problem Solvers Caucus – Democrats and Republicans who imagined it possible for Republicans and Democrats to solve problems together.

The incumbent is Mayra Flores, chair of Hispanic outreach for her county Republican Party.  Running to replace the resigned Democratic Congressman, she was the beneficiary of DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney’s refusal to support candidates in special elections.  He was convinced Democrats would win these seats in November.  Angry as I am at him for that position, I hope that he is right, that in November the electorate will reject its incumbent who says she joined the Republicans because she was opposed to abortion.  She actually went further and became enamored of QAnon.  Help reject this incumbent and support

  • On September 21st, 538 projected that Vincente Gonzalez would win 80 times out of 100. Vincente Gonazlez would win 52.3 – 45.1
  • Recent polls are helpful
    • On August 1st a Republican-oriented funded B- rated poll projected Gonzales leading 47-43
  • At the beginning of July, Gonzelez reported $1.4 million dollars available, at the beginning of September Flores reported $100,000

TX 28 D+07

Henry Cuellar won his primary by less than 300 votes.  This primary attracted national attention, national money, national endorsements.  Nancy Pelosi endorsed him.  Sean Patrick Maloney and the DCCC spent money to support him.  Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren endorsed his opponent.  He believes in education, is a supporter in Congress and educated himself – AA from Laredo CC, BA from Georgetown, Master’s in International Trade from Texas A & M, a PhD from Texas.  He serves on the appropriation committee, the agriculture committee, and is Chief Deputy Whip.  He supports immigrants, veterans, border security.  While he is moderate to conservative, for a Democrat, on many issues, the primary fight was largely about abortion.  He is opposed.

His opponent is Cassy Garcia – formerly Ted Cruz’s Deputy State Director and Donald Trump’s Commissioner for the WH Hispanic Prosperity Initiative. She has a BA and an MPA from University of Texas and is furious with the New York Times for calling her a far-right Latina.  Henry Cuellar will vote for a Democrat to be Speaker of the House. Democrats are better off with Henry Cuellar in Congress rather than with Cassy Garcia.  So are those who favor women being able to choose to have an abortion.

  • On September 21st, 538 projected that Henry Cuellar would win 72 times out of 100. Henry Cuella would win 52.4 – 47.6
  • There are no polls available for this race
  • At the beginning of July both candidates had a little more than $200,000 for this campaign.

TX 15 EVEN

Michelle Vallejo (Political Note #486) won her primary by less than 50 votes.  This primary attracted little or no national attention.  LUPE Votes endorsed her.  The United Farm Workers endorsed her.  So did Elizabeth Warren.  Vote Vets endorsed her opponent.  So did several trades unions.  Several Members of Congress endorsed her including business-oriented Vicente Gonzales. She left town for college; went to Columbia.  She could have stayed, gone to law school or business school, and made money.  Instead she came home to manage the family flea market.  And to get involved in local politics.  Running for Congress, she is for affordable high quality health care, a $15 per hour minimum wage, and jobs developing and manufacturing advanced batteries, solar power, and wind power.

Her opponent is Monica De La Cruz Hernandez. In 2020, she ran for Congress in this district. She claimed Vicente Gonzalez was a socialist.  That kind of campaign made the race close. She lost by 3 points.  She supports tougher border security, ending energy regulations that increase cost, ending anti-American education in schools, and praises the overturn of Roe v Wade. Breitbart has named her one of three Texas Republican women who are the “triple threat.”  Help Michelle Vallejo turn that threat back.

  • On September 21st, 538 projected that Michelle Vallejo would win 40 times out of 100. Michelle Vallejo was behind 47.2 – 49.4
  • Polls are helpful
    • On July 29thth a Republican-oriented funded B- rated poll projected Vallejo as behind 40-44
  • On July 1 Michelle Vallejo had $150,000 available, Monica De La Cruz Hernandez had $500,000

TX 23 R+13.

John Lira (Political Note #424) had the best chance of any Democrat in a Republican District.  He is an ex Marine whose Mexican American parents came to San Antonio.  John Lira grew up there, worked busing tables as a 14 year old there, and learned about his uncle who died in the Kansas City Federal Building bombing there. He did two combat tours as an intelligence officer in Iraq. He came home, earned his BA at UT at San Antonio, got a Master’s from Carnegie Mellon, worked in Washington developing an expertise in advising small businesses, and married a woman who is now a college professor.

His opponent is not so different. His background is less clear and he was and still is angrier. He quit school at 15, eventually joined the navy, got his degrees while in the service and became a Republican there as well. Also in intelligence, he was a cryptologist. He ran for office after working as an aide to Marco Rubio.  As a Member of Congress, he has been a faithful Republican with a single exception – he voted in favor of a committee to investigate January 6.  Help John Lira as he tries to flip this seat.

  • On September 21st, 538 projected that John Lira would win 3 times out of 100. John Lira was behind 39.6 – 56.2
  • Polls are helpful, though discouraging in this case.
    • On July 29thth a Democratic funded A- rated poll projected Lira as behind 26-42
  • On July 1 John Lira had $90,000 available, Tony Gonzales had $1.3 million

Supreme Court and the Court of Criminal Appeals

Each Supreme Court (one for civil cases, the other for criminal cases) has three justices up for election.  Both courts are composed entirely of Republicans.  It would be something if Democrats could make a dent in that.

Supreme Court (Civil)

Place 3

Erin Nowell v Inc Debra Lehrmann

There were some turning points in Erin Nowell’s life in North Carolina. The daughter of an uneducated white woman and a Black man who was killed when Erin was five, she was bright and engaging in school. Her teacher advised her mom to register her as an African American.  She was admitted to the North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics.  Even so, counselors recommended she apply to nearby, less demanding colleges.  She was stubborn enough and tough enough to insist on applying to the best possible colleges – the toughness and stubbornness useful qualities when she became a litigator.  She got a full scholarship to Wake Forest and another full scholarship to the University of Texas Law School.  A partner in her law firm, she was encouraged to run for election to the Texas Fifth District Court of Appeals in a district not particularly friendly to an African American.  She won, nevertheless.  Can she beat an incumbent for the Texas Supreme Court?

The incumbent Debra Lehrmann is a graduate of the University of Texas where she also got her law degree. A native of Harris County of which Houston is a part, she practiced family law in Fort Worth and lives in Colleyville.  She has defeated Democrats for the District Court and the Supreme Court – usually carrying Harris County handily.  Erin Nowell, an African American who lives in Harris County, may be tougher to beat. Donate to her if you can.  You can help may it tougher for Lerhmann and could elect a Democrat to the Court.

 

Place 5

Amanda Reichek v Inc Rebeca Huddle

A graduate of Westbury High School in Houston, Amanda Reichek went to Texas Tech and then to the University of North Carolina, where she intended to study sociology.  Studying the labor movement, she decided she would rather join than study it.  She got her law degree from Texas Tech and clerked for the Houston Federation of Teachers and other unions.  Before being elected to the Fifth District Court of Appeals, she had her own firm representing employees and labor unions.

Rebecca Huddle was nominated to the Supreme Court by Governor Greg Abbott to replace a retiree.  From El Paso, she went to Stanford and the University of Texas Austin Law School.  Before being appointed to the Texas Supreme Court, she had been in charge of the Houston office of a large firm.  She had returned to the firm after having been appointed and then elected a member of the First Court of Appeals.  Help elect a labor lawyer to Texas’s Supreme Court.  Donations to Amanda Reichek could make a difference.

 

Place 9

Julia Maldonado v Inc Evan Young

Born in Mexico, Julia Maldonado grew up in Houston.  She got a BBA at the University of Houston and practiced accounting for fifteen years before deciding to study law at Texas Southern’s Thurgood Marshall Law School.  She opened her own firm with a general practice and was elected, in 2016 to the Harris County Family Court.

Like in a story book, she is opposing Evan Young originally of San Antonio.  He went to Duke where one of his minors was Japanese as he made Phi Beta Kappa and graduated summa cum laude.  He went to Yale Law School, clerked for Judge Harvie Wilkinson III of the Fourth Circuit and Justice Antonin Scalia of the US Supreme Court.  Currently a partner of a large firm in Austin, he is the firm’s chair of constitutional law.  Before returning to the firm, he served as Counsel to the Attorney General and Deputy Rule of Law Coordinator at the US Embassy in Baghdad.  Create an obstacle for this fairy tale.  Help Julia Maldonado get elected to the Texas Supreme Court.

 Court of Criminal Appeals

 Place 2

No Democrat is contesting Inc. Mary Lou Keel

Place 5

Dana Huffman v Inc Scott Walker

Hard as it may be to elect a Democrat to the Texas Supreme Court, which deals in Civil matters, it may be harder to elect a Democrat in law and order Texas to the Court of Criminal Appeals.  A graduate of Stephen F Austin State University with a law degree from Texas Wesleyan, Dana Huffman has spent nearly 25 years representing municipalities.  In addition to her municipal law practice, a central part of her work has been mediation.

The incumbent is Scott Walker, a graduate of Dallas Baptist University with a law degree from Baylor.  Scott Walker was a defense attorney.  He was elected to the Court by defeating a district attorney.  Asked about whether he believes Donald Trump lost the 2020 Presidential election, he refused to say.

Help elect Dana Huffman to Texas’s Criminal Court of Appeals.  Texas and the country are better off with people who understand mediation and understand that Donald Trump was not elected President in 2020.

Place 6

Robert Johnson v Inc Jesse McClure III

Robert Johnson was a New Yorker, but not for long.  He graduated from Sharpstown High School in Houston and got his BA from the University of Houston.  He was out of school for 8 years, then went to the Thurgood Marshall School of Law at Texas Southern.  He opened up his own practice in 2001 doing criminal defense work for thirteen years before being elected as a judge.

His opponent, also an African American, was appointed to the Criminal Court of Appeals by Greg Abbott. After graduating from the University of North Carolina and the University of Texas Law School, he worked as a prosecutor in a county DA’s office, for the US Department of Homeland Security, and the Texas Department of Insurance.  He was elected and served as a District judge before his appointment to the CCA in 2020.

 

Democrats keep hoping that they can break through and make Texas less Republican, maybe even a kind of swing state.  Money helps.

If you had $500 for spend in Texas, consider the following:

$75 for Beto O’Rourke for Governor

$75 for Mike Collier for Lt. Governor

$75 for Rochelle Garza for Attorney General

$75 for Michelle Vallejo for TX 15

$25 for Janet Dudding for Comptroller

$25 for Jay Kleberg for Land Commissioner

$25 for Susan Hays for Agriculture Commissioner

$25 for Luke Warford for the Railroad Commission

$20 for Erin Norwell for the Supreme Court

$20 for Amanda Reichek for the Supreme Court

$20 for Julia Maldonado for the Supreme Court

$20 for Dana Huffman for the Criminal Court of Appeals

$20 for Robert Johnson for the Criminal Court of Appeals

 

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