Political Note #508 New York and New Jersey elections

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September 28th, 2022        Political Note #508 New York and New Jersey elections

2022                                          General Election

New York is our fourth largest state.  New Jersey is our 11th largest.  Together, as they are with the Port Authority of New York and Jersey, they are about the size of Texas.

Both states have Congressional elections that are sufficiently competitive to be worth attention.  Neither have statewide races that are competitive.  New Jersey’s governor and legislature was elected in 2021; the same for its legislature.  The next gubernatorial election will be in 2025, the next legislative election will be in 2023.  New York’s statewide races are not particularly competitive because New York is so heavily a Democratic state and because of the circumstances of 2022.  Still, it is worth paying attention to those statewide New York races.

New York Congressional Races

NY 04 D+10

Laura Gillen

Laura Gillen has a BA from Georgetown and a JD from NYU, but that is not the whole story of her preparing for life.  She thought she would be an actress and returned home to New York to study at the Stella Adler school.  Apparently, they persuaded her otherwise and she became an agent for a speakers bureau.  She was helping people earn a living, but that was not the focus she wanted.  After two years as an agent, in 1996, she joined Divemaster which is more than an ordinary diving school.  With that as a start, she travelled to China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and back to India where she had trained with Divemaster.  In India, she spent time as a volunteer at Mother Theresa’s Home for the Dying.

After that, she went to law school, found a firm she was comfortable with and then another, where she stayed for 12 years working on human resource issues ranging from fraud to human rights. While practicing in New York, she returned to Long Island where she grew up and developed an interest in the town of Hempstead’s politics.  If that makes you think small town, you would be wrong.  Hempstead has a population of about 775,000 people.  If it were a city, it would be the country’s 18th largest –  just smaller than San Francisco, larger than Seattle.  She ran for mayor (sorry, not mayor, town supervisor) and raised $2 million.  Her list of achievements in her two year term is breathtaking.  It ranges from tightening fiscal controls and passing a multi-year capital plan to passing legislation addressing transparency, sexual harassment and more to beginning litigation to recover damages from contaminants in the water supply.

Her opponent, Anthony D’Esposito promises law and order.  He is a former New York City detective, fire chief of one of the local villages, and its public information officer.

  • On September 25th , 538 reported that Laura Gillen had an 86 in 100 chance of winning. She is projected to defeat Anthony D’Esposito 54.3 – 45.5
  • No Polls available
  • At the beginning of August, Gillen had $165,000, Anthony D’Esposito had $545,000

NY 17 D+7

Sean Patrick Maloney (Political Note #448) is not my favorite Democrat.  He was and is now running as a moderate Democrat in a district that is not overwhelmingly Democratic.  I don’t quarrel with his voting record, which reflects both his views and his former and current constituency.  He earned a lot of criticism for switching districts for the 2022 election.  His former district, NY 18, was shifted northwards, away from the suburbs into more rural and more conservative New York. He moved to a district west of where he had been and chased out a capable and effective African American freshman legislator in a district which was primarily suburban Rockland County (west of the Hudson).  I don’t quarrel as much with his decision as others do.

My quarrel is with his role as head of the DCCC.  In charge of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, he spent considerable funds on primaries supporting conservative Democratic incumbents like Henry Cuellar of Texas 28, but not a dime on special elections.  The special elections didn’t matter, he said.  We will win these races in November.  Democrats lost a series of special elections, some they would certainly have won, some they might have won.  With support and some special election victories, we would not have had the narrative about Democrats being swamped in the House in 2022.  My hope is that Sean Patrick Maloney will turn out to be a hero.  If the Democrats retain the House (538 gives them a 30% chance using their Elite model and a 42% chance using their Lite model which relies solely on polls) Sean Patrick will be a hero whether he was responsible for that success or not. The narrative now is that holding the House is not likely, but it is possible.

In any case, Sean Patrick Maloney is a better choice than Assemblyman Michael V. Lawler whose snarky bill for a $1,000 tax credit for tire damage from state roads is characteristic.  Better than Ron DeSantis, I guess.  Use your tires as political pawns rather than people.  Make it a tax credit rather than a payment so that only people who pay $1,000 in income tax are eligible. Consider providing some support to Sean Patrick Maloney. 

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Sean Patrick Maloney had an 87 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to defeat Michael Lawler 54.1 – 45.9
  • Polls are helpful indicators
    • A Republican funded C/D rated poll reported on September 8th that Maloney was behind 45-49
    • Republican funded C/D rated poll reported on July 21st that Maloney was behind 44-46
  • At the beginning of August, Maloney had $2.4 million to spend, Lawler had $435,000

 

NY 03 D+4

Robert Zimmerman

The internationally known Bob Zimmerman (Bob Dylan for those who don’t follow such things) was fifteen when Robert Zimmerman of Great Neck got his name.  By the time Robert Zimmerman got to Brandeis, Bob Dylan had been there ten years earlier – singing and playing the guitar.

Robert Zimmerman, the candidate,  would not be awarded a Nobel Prize for his Congressional connections –  an aide to two Long Island Congressmen, a friend and consultant to a third — Congressman Gary Ackerman.  Nor would he get a Nobel Prize for his years running ZE Crisis Communications.  Public Relations is not to be ignored as a place to exercise creativity.  PR firms do get awarded prizes and ZECC got more than its share of them.

Robert Zimmerman does have a long history as an advocate for Planned Parenthood, LGBTQ rights, Medicare for All, for immigration reform, voting rights, and for dealing with the climate crisis. He was active in the 1980s seeking ways for Jews and Christians to escape the Soviet Union and he remains a supporter of Israel and a two-state solution.  HIs advocacy has given him a bit of a national platform.  He is an elected member of the DNC and an opponent of the super delegate system.  He has served on a variety of national boards – bringing to them his skill as a communicator. His very first campaign issue is our need to deal with the existential threat the climate crisis creates for us.  His second campaign issue is the existential threat that currently exists to our democracy.   His website suggests that his sympathy and support for the underrepresented was motivated by his many years as a closeted gay man.

The Republican candidate for NY 03 is George Santos who describes himself as a Wall street financier and investor who introduces capital into such fields as real estate and bio-tech.  Some have described him as a developer. His first campaign issue is inflation – says the Left has created shortages.  His second campaign issue is safety.  He suggests that crime is spiraling out of control and promises that “the safety of your family” is his number one priority.  Think about giving Robert Zimmerman some financial support

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Robert Zimmerman had a 73 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to defeat Michael Lawler 52.3 – 47.7
  • Recent polls can be helpful
    • A term limit organization funded B- rated poll reported on September 2nd that Zimmerman was leading 42-41
  • At the beginning of August, Zimmerman had more than $450,000 to spend, Santos had more than $750,000

 

NY 18 D+3

Pat Ryan

On his own, without DCCC support Pat Ryan (Political Note #485) won a special election – for the old NY 19, a district that includes some of the NY 19 and some of the new NY 18.  The victory made him a national figure, a representative of a resurgence of Democratic hopes for the mid-term elections.

 Pat Ryan is the Executive for Ulster County.  He returned to Kingston after attending West Point, becoming an intelligence officer, and serving two tours in Iraq.  He used his technology skills to build a tech-reliant business working with small governments and non-profits.  The company grew successful and had 150 employees.  Pat Ryan demonstrated the same knack for making things work as County Executive.  He revitalized the site of what was once the County’s largest corporate employer, IBM.  That site has been rented by a New Jersey firm intending to open it up for a variety of industrial and commercial purposes.

Pat Ryan is a cautious politician.  Running for Congress, he has limited himself to guiding intentions – to protect women’s autonomy for health care and for other aspects of their lives, to ensure that the economy works for ordinary people, and take necessary steps for the public’s safety.  He is running against Assemblyman Collin Schmitt, whose main goal while in the legislature was to make certain that a retiree cannot collect his or her retirement while working for the state.  Support Pat Ryan in his effort to get to Congress.

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Pat Ryan had a 69 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to defeat Collin Schmitt 51.9 – 48.1
  • Polls can be helpful
    • There are no polls available. Consider the special election a kind of poll.
  • At the beginning of August, Riley had more than $300,000 to spend, Schmitt had $650,000

 

NY 22 D+2

Francis Conole

This is the second time around for Francis Conole (Political Note #477).  The woman who defeated him in the primary, but lost in the general did not run again.  He and his family could be the definition of locals.  His grandparents and his parents lived and worked in Syracuse.  His grandfather was a state cop who was elected sheriff.  His grandmother taught in Syracuse. His mother occasionally wrote for the local newspaper.  His father was in the army reserve and was a civilian hospital administrator. From high school, Francis Conole went to the Naval Academy.  He served several tours of duty on a destroyer then moved to DC to serve in the Office of Naval Intelligence.  Because he has a sense of ceremony, he particularly cherished his role in the inauguration of Barack Obama for his first term.  He led a team of military from all backgrounds and races as a kind of honor guard for this historic event.

He came home with the intention of being involved in politics.  In 2022, unlike 2020, he wrapped up county endorsements early. He says as a Congressman he would focus on programs that take care of people – from social security and Medicare to women’s health and the creation of recovery centers for opioid victims.  His opponent is also a Navy Veteran, Brandon Williams. Born in Texas, college in California, his naval experience was on submarines.  Out of the service, he got an MBA from Wharton and became an entrepreneur.  He founded a software company and an agribusiness which has a tourist component.  He does not have issues or proposals, he has “stances.” He begins with a Fiscal Conservative stance describing our spending as reckless and our borrowing from China as worse.  His next stance is “Federalism” and argues for returning power to the states.

  • On September 25th , 538 reported that Francis Conole had a 50 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to tie Brandon Williams 50. – 50
  • Polls are helpful indicators
    • A Term Limit advocate funded B- rated poll reported on September 2nd that Conole was behind 40-43
  • At the beginning of August, Conole had $300,000 to spend, Williams had $135,000

NY 19 R+1

Josh Riley (Political Note #473) is Al Franken’s favorite congressional candidate.  Josh Riley grew up in Upstate. He went to William & Mary for College, to Harvard for Law School.  He had an eye on politics from the beginning.  He knew the kind of politics he was interested in. After college he worked for long term Democratic Upstate New York Congressman Maurice Hinchey and then he worked for the US Labor Department on an effort to raise the minimum wage.  He went to a Miami based political law firm (first name on the masthead is Boies – David Boies represented Al Gore in Bush v Gore).  In Miami, he worked on a law suit intended to help low income kids get access to health care.  After Boies, et al, Josh Riley went to work as Chief Legal Counsel to US Senator Al Franken.  Four years before Al Franken resigned, Josh Riley left for Upstate New York, a place he sees as having been forsaken by the powers that be.  “Upstate New York’s economy was decimated as plants closed down and good manufacturing jobs were lost overseas… “ he wrote.  He added “Upstate New York was sold out by a culture of greed on Wall Street and a culture of corruption in Congress.”

Josh Riley is running against County Executive Marc Molinaro, the man who Pat Ryan upset in the recent special election.  Molinaro was a kind of wunderkind, a member of a town board of trustees when he was 18.  Molinaro appears to have three goals – end the mental health crisis, end the opioid crisis, and increase the use of cryptocurrencies.  Join Al Franken, support Josh Riley.

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Josh Riley had a 51 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to defeat Eric Molinaro 50.1-49.9
  • Polls are helpful indicators
    • A Term Limit advocate funded B- rated poll reported on September 2nd that Riley was leading 44-41
    • A Democratic funded B-rated poll reported on September 1st that Riley was leading 47-44
  • At the beginning of August, Riley had $500,000 to spend, Molinaro had $600,000

NY 01 R+5

Before Bridge Fleming (Political Note #498) was elected to the county legislature, she was a member of the town board for the fashionable and toney town of Southampton.  Before she held office in Southampton, she spent 10 years in the Manhattan District Attorney’s office and after the DA’s office, heading the New York City Bar Association’s efforts to provide pro bono counsel for the homeless, for refugees, and, after 9/11, for victims of the attack.  Moving to Southampton with her builder husband might have felt tame.  There her practice was family law and mediation, though family law with the very wealthy as clients can be tough.  Being on a town council with wealthy constituents can be equally tough.  She and others had to take spending in hand to prevent the town from having a damaged credit rating.

Bridge Fleming’s campaign is focused on overcoming the financial difficulties working families face, preserving our democratic system by making sure people can vote, and ensuring that women have control over their own health decisions. Her opponent, Nick Lalota has different views. His first campaign goal is voter integrity as he comes close to buying into the belief that the 2020 election was stolen.  He argues that it is easy, in New York, to commit voter fraud by impersonating someone else, that absentee ballots are subject to fraud by impersonation or coercion, and that big tech companies suppress Republican opinions immediately before elections.  Don’t let New York go down the rabbit hole.  Help Bridget Fleming.

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Bridget Fleming had a 31 in 100 chance of winning. She is projected to lose to Nick LaLota 48.1-51.9
  • There are no polls
  • At the beginning of August, Fleming had $600,000 to spend, LaLota had $200,000

NY 11 R+11

Max Rose

Former Congressman Max Rose (Political Note #230) is running to return to Congress.  He was elected in 2018, defeated in 2020, and could be back in 2022.  NY 11 includes Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn.  What’s crucial is what part.  The original redistricting plan for New York would have made the district D+7.  The next redistricting plan would have made the district R+5.  The final plan imposed by a Special Master (We are becoming familiar with that term) made it R+11 – a very tough number for Max Rose to overcome.

Max Rose comes from a family of immigrants from Odessa, Ukraine. His great grandmother was a school principal, His grandmother, a teacher. His mother taught at Manhattan Community College and is an expert on welfare policy.  His father ran a medical laboratory.  Max Rose went to Wesleyan where he was a wrestler and a writer. Later he earned a MPhil at the London School of Economics.  He served in Afghanistan for five years. He was a platoon leader when he was was wounded.  Home from the war, he worked for the Brooklyn DA and as Chief of Staff of the nonprofit operator of medical outpatient clinics.

Elected to Congress, his principal issue was transportation infrastructure.  It would have been satisfying to have been in Congress when Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan passed.  He lost in 2020 to Nicole Maliotakis, 53-47 who voted against the infrastructure bill.

Max Rose’s first campaign issue is universal health care and ending the opioid epidemic.  When in the House, he worked to reduce the cost of medications and to sanction other countries, like China, that produced and trafficked fentanyl.  He urges that Roe v. Wade be codified into federal law and would fund universal child care.  The Incumbent, Nicole Malliotakis, has as her first campaign issue, animal welfare.  She would improve animal shelters. Her next issue is education.  She argues for retaining traditional activities in schools like father-daughter dances.  She promotes anti-littering efforts as well as discipline and civility in the classroom.

Help Max Rose return to Congress.  We could use him.

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Max Rose had a 7 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to lose to Malliotakis 44.5 – 55.5
  • There are no polls available
  • At the beginning of August, Rose had $1 million to spend, Malliotakis had $2.6 million

New Jersey Congressional Races

NJ 03 D+9

Andy Kim

Andy Kim (Political Note #147) gained national attention, wearing a suit, plastic bag in hand, he cleaned up after the January 6 insurrectionists left the Capitol building.  His parents were immigrants from Korea.  His father was an orphan who lived on the streets.  His mother was almost as poor, living on a failed farm.  Somehow, they got to the US where his mother became a nurse and his father earned a PhD and became a scientist.  Andy Kim attended a truly unusual two year college before going to The University of Chicago.  All male Deep Springs College is situated between two mountains in California. At Deep Springs, the 30  self-governing and self-sufficient students work 20 hours per week on the cattle and alfalfa farm. He went to get both a Truman and a Rhodes Scholarship, to a career advising the military and the president and, ultimately, to Congress.  His top issue is ensuring that everyone have access to affordable and high quality healthcare.  His second issue is jobs.  He refers to his support for the microloan act, the CARES act, the Infrastructure Act, and the Put Our Neighbors to Work Act encouraging the military to use small, local businesses.

His opponent is Manufacturer Robert Healy, manufacturer of sprinkler systems and other pipe-like products.  He is also the founder of an international relief foundation which focuses on Sierra Leone.  He was motivated to run for Congress to fight “radical liberals and cancel culture.” He sees President Biden as an economic disaster for the country who has handcuffed and defunded the police. Andy Kim is one of the most promising Democratic leaders in Congress.  Help keep him there.

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Andy Kim had a 90 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to defeat Healy by  7 – 43.8
  • Recent polls are helpful
    • A Term Limit advocate funded B- rated poll reported on September 2nd that Kim was leading 44-38
  • At the beginning of July, Kim had $4.4 million to spend, Healy had $1.5 million

 

NJ 07 R+3

Tom Malinowski

The most vulnerable incumbent member of Congress in New York and New Jersey is Tom Malinowski (Political Note #363).  Born in Stupsk, Poland, his mother married an American journalist.  In the US, Tom Malinowski proved to be an outstanding student, left Princeton where he grew up to to University of California Berkeley.  He earned a Rhodes and went to Oxford.  He did not come back for awhile.  He worked for the Ford Foundation.  Back in the US, he worked for Secretaries of State Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright.  When the Democrats were out of office, he lobbied for Human Rights Watch. Under Obama, he was Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor.  He was a kind of conscience for America.  As a congressman and candidate for reelection, he is particularly focused on the economy, touting the American Rescue Plan and Biden’s efforts to control the price of gasoline.  His second issue is creating fairer taxes, the importance of taxing corporations that have, so far, avoided paying taxes.  And, as with all NJ Members of Congress, he would restore the SALT deduction, real estate tax and other deductions that Republicans had particularly targeted high tax states like New Jersey.

There are four reasons he is vulnerable.  Redistricting left him with a Republican leaning district.  Conscience he may be, but he neglected to report stock transactions. He has been a particular target of QAnon.  That may be a badge of honor, but the targeting is problematic.  And his opponent is Tom Kean Jr.  Son of a popular New Jersey Governor, Kean is focused on blaming Biden,  Pelosi, and Malinowski for inflation.  The national resurgence of Democratic Congressional candidates may help.  The Malinowski campaign claimed Kean had removed references to abortion on his website, but Kean had not removed all references. On a hard to find page, Kean said he “would protect the unborn from egregious abortion laws.”   Help Tom Malinowksi stay in Congress.

  • On September 25th, 538 reported that Tom Malinowski had a 38 in 100 chance of winning. He is projected to lose to Kean  9 – 51.1
  • Recent polls are helpful
    • A Term Limit advocate funded B- rated poll reported on July 8th that Malinowski was behind 38 – 46-38
  • At the beginning of July, Malinowski had $4.2 million to spend, Kean had $1.3 million

US Senate from New York

Chuck Schumer is the Senate Majority Leader. Think 2002.  That year, he was the head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).  The Democrats gained 6 seats.  Maybe he can do that again.  He touts the response to the worst public health crisis which included direct checks to most Americans, funding to produce and distribute vaccines, Earned Income Credits for children was sharply reduced childhood poverty, funding to states for first responders, and more.  He further touts the American Jobs plan which addresses jobs and the climate crisis, and proposals to protect the right to vote and make voting secure and fair.  His opponent, Joe Pinion, is a political commentator.

  • 538 projects that more than 99 times in 100, Chuck Schumer wins the NY Senate race. He is projected to win 61.4- 36.3
  • Recent polls are helpful
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on September 6th that Schumer was leading 55 – 31
    • An Republican funded C/D rated poll reported on August 9th that Schumer was leading 51-36
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on July 28th that Schumer was leading  53-31
    • An independently funded A rated poll reported on July 28th that Schumer was leading  56-36
  • At the beginning of July, Open Secrets reported that Chuck Schumer had $37.9 million to spend; Pinion had peanuts — $25,000.

Governor

Kathy Hochul

Former Lt. Governor, who became governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned to avoid impeachment, is almost as much a sure thing as Senator Schumer. Kathy Hochul touts delivering pandemic recovery assistance, accelerating tax cuts, and providing support for child care.  She describes the effort to combat Covid as a success.  Her opponent is Congressman Lee Zeldin

  • On September 25th 538 projects that Hochul would win more than 99 times in 100. Her probable win would be 58.6 to 41.4
  • Recent polls are helpful
    • An independently funded B rated poll reported on September 13th that Hochul was leading 52-39
    • An union funded A- rated poll reported on September 9th that Hochul was leading 54 – 39
    • An independently funded B/C rated poll reported on September 7th that Hochul was leading 49-43
    • A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 6th that Hochul was leading 50-35
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 1st that Hochul was leading 48-43
  • In mid-July, the New York Times reported that Kathy Hochul had 11.7 million available for the rest of the campaign, Lee Zeldin had $1.6 million.

Down ballot state offices.

 Attorney General.

Tish James

Born in Brooklyn, like Chuck Schumer, she grew up there.  BA City University, JD Howard.  She returned to practice in New York and also got an MPA from Columbia. She worked as a public defender, counselor to a city councilman, and chief of staff for an Assemblyman. Then she worked in the Attorney General’s office, finally as head of the AG’s Brooklyn office.  Tish James ran for the city council in 2001 on the Working Family Party line, but lost to Democrat James Davis. They were to have a rematch in 2003 except that shortly before the election, Davis was assassinated by a former rival.  Davis’s brother Geoffrey stepped in, but lost to Tish James. In 2013, she was elected Public Advocate as a Democrat for New York City, a position with little authority, but influence and next in line to be mayor. She won more easily in 2017.  In 2018, with then Governor Andrew Cuomo’s support, she was elected Attorney General.  She is running for reelection against attorney Michael Henry, a commercial litigator who has represented asylum seekers from China and has been a radio and television political analyst.

  • When James, who had initially planned to run for governor, announced she would instead run for reelection, she cleared the field of Democratic candidates for Attorney General, one of whom stated there was no point in entering the primary which would be a hopeless race. Michael Henry is unlikely to have much of a chance in the general election, either.
  • There are no polls.
  • There are no financial reports.

State Comptroller

Tom DiNapoli

An Assemblyman from Long Island and Chair of the Conservation Committee, Tom DiNapoli was elected State Comptroller by the state legislature to fill a vacancy in 2007. He was elected by the legislature even though he was not one of the three nominees offered by the Review Panel. Since then, he has been elected in 2010, 2014, and 2018.  He rarely took political stands, but in 2007, after he took office he announced the Governor Spitzer’s budget was unsustainable, that it would create a $13 billion deficit in three years.  He was narrowly elected in 2010.  In 2014 and 2018 he led the ticket, winning more votes than any other statewide candidate.  His opponent is Paul Rodriguez, who has spent the last 25 years on Wall Street as a financial advisor, taking time out once to run for Congress and another time to run the archdiocese of New York’s fund-raising campaign.  He promises to professionalize the Comptroller’s office.

  • Tom DiNapoli has faced no primary opposition and has one general elections with ease. He is facing a strong candidate this time, but has done nothing that would make him lose the election.
  • There are no polls
  • There are no financial reports

Democrats dominate New York, but they are not as dominant in the Congressional races as they expected. New York’s highest court, the Court of Appeals, supported the decision of a trial judge that the Congressional districts and state senate districts were unconstitutionally gerrymandered.  The trial judge was asked to select a Special Master.  John Cervas, the appointed Special Master redid the districts voted by the legislature.  There were 8 competitive districts instead of 3.  What had looked like a Congressional map that would offset gerrymanders in Ohio and Florida is now extremely competitive.   In New Jersey, one Democratic Members of Congress got the short end of the stick in redistricting.  He needs support.

If you had $600 for spend in New York and New Jersey consider the following:

Pat Ryan for NY 18                          $100

Francis Conole for NY 22               $100

Josh Riley for NY 19                        $100

Bridget Fleming for NY 01              $100

Robert Zimmerman for NY $100

Tom Malinowski for NJ 07              $100

Your donations can help New York Democrats get back to a position where they do as well as they might have without the Court ruling and could prevent a New Jersey seat from being flipped

 

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