Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
NORTHEAST: Political Note #385 Chris Pappas NH 01, Political Note #363 Tom Malinowski NJ 07
SOUTHEAST: Political Note #385 Carolyn Bordeaux GA 07, Political Note #410 Charles Evans NC 08, Political Note #416 Stewart Navarre VA 01, Political Note #388 Elaine Luria VA 02
MIDWEST: Political Note #376 Lauren Underwood IL 14, Political Note #378 Elissa Slotkin MI 08, Political Note #357 Haley Stevens MI 11, Political Note #355 Angie Craig MN 02, Political Note #418 Brad Pfaf WI 03
SOUTHWEST: Political Note #375 Steven Horsford NV 04, Political Note #356 Susie Lee NV 03, Political Note #377 Lizzie Fletcher TX 07, Political Note #362 Vicente Gonzalez TX 15
WEST: Political Note #383 Harley Rouda CA 48, Political Note #384 Peter DeFazio OR 04.
112921 Political Note #385 Chris Pappas. NH 01
2022 General Election
Once upon a time, there was the Solid Democratic South. Now New England is Solid Blue.
Connecticut: All Five Congressional seats are held by Democrats
Rhode Island: Both Congressional seats are held by Democrats
Massachusetts: All Nine Congressional seats are held by Democrats
Vermont Its Congressional seat is held by a Democrat
New Hampshire Both Congressional seats are held by Democrats
Maine Both Congressional seats are held by Democrats
Let’s keep it that way.
In 2020, Chris Pappas https://www.chrispappas.org, of New Hampshire’s First Congressional District won with 51.39% of the vote. He was elected to a second term – the first time a Member of Congress from NH 01 was reelected in ten years. NH 01 was a genuine swing district. In fact, both New Hampshire districts were swing districts. NH 01 was rated as having a one point Republican lean; NH 02 was rated as having a two point Democratic lean. For those who believe in competition between the political parties, New Hampshire was perfect.
The New Hampshire legislature, currently dominated by Republicans, is poised to put its thumb on the scale. They are considering a Congressional map proposal from the House Special Committee on Redistricting which includes, according to the website 538, “some of the biggest changes to New Hampshire’s congressional map since the late 1800s.” After removing several communities that lean Democratic from NH 01, the proposed new map would give NH 01 a 9 point Republican lean and NH 02 a 10 point Democratic lean.
The likelihood of a map like this gave Chris Pappas pause. He and the Democrats would need to generate anger against the Republicans for creating this gerrymander. Chris Pappas considered a run for Governor if the Republican controlled New Hampshire legislature adopted a gerrymandered plan. He decided not run for Governor. Republican Governor Chris Sununu decided not to challenge Democrat Maggie Hassan for the US Senate. He will run for reelection instead.
Sununu would be extremely hard to defeat. Governors in New Hampshire have two-year terms. Chris Sununu was elected in 2016 by 2 points, in 2018 by 7 points, and in 2020 by 32 points. He is fiscally conservative, socially moderate and about as popular a governor as evenly divided New Hampshire has had. His decision to not run for the US Senate was based on disdain for Washington politics. If anything, that decision has increased his popularity. After a pause, Chris Pappas committed himself to run for reelection in this modified +9 Republican NH 01 district.
Chris Pappas and his family are an American success story. At the beginning of the 20th century Chris Pappas’s great grandfather arrived in the US from Greece. He and a fellow Greek immigrant, both of whom learned the language and the New England ethos quickly, opened the Puritan Confectionary Company in 1917. Ice cream and candy were a good combination. By 1974, the children of both men added a restaurant behind the ice cream shop, calling the restaurant the Puritan Backroom. By the time 37-year old Chris Pappas was ready to run for Congress, the restaurant was in the hands of a third generation. He was one of the owners.
Getting involved in politics was easy for Chris Pappas. He joined Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign for governor in 1996 while he was in high school. Having returned from Harvard and 22 years old, he was elected to New Hampshire’s 400 person House of Representatives in 2002. He served two terms in the House and two terms as County Treasurer before losing to Robert Burns (It is hard not to call this guy Bobbie.). Two years later, in 2012, Chris Pappas defeated Robert Burns for the Executive Council (a distinctive New England body with authority to approve certain gubernatorial appointments, certain contracts, and pardons).
Openly gay, when Chris Pappas ran for Congress, his sexual orientation became a factor in campaigns. One of eleven Democratic candidates in 2018, he was attacked in the primary as being “weak,” as not having a “backbone” and took those attacks as being homophobic. His specific weakness was having accepted an endorsement from a business-oriented organization supported by the Kochs. An attack from the left may helped his campaign in the 2018 general election campaign. He was elected as a moderate Democrat – fiscally conservative, progressive on social issues.
In 2020, Chris Pappas’s Republican opponent attacked him for dating an Amazon lobbyist. Again, he took this attack as an effort to make explicit (it had been public for years) that he was gay. The Republican could not attack Chris Pappas from the left. The Republican had worked for the Trump administration and then for pharmaceutical companies. Worse, his work for pharmaceutical companies was hidden in his financial disclosure forms and became subject to an ethics committee review. Chris Pappas won the 2018 election by 8 points, the 2020 election by 5. Winning NH 01 in 2022 with a 9 point Republican lean will be hard.
Chris Pappas, running as a fiscal conservative and social progressive, could win in 2022. He has voted consistently with President Biden, has been a member of the New Democratic Coalition (a caucus that describes itself as fiscally moderate and progressive on social issues). He is also co-Chair of the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus. In support of his moderate status, he was one of six Democrats to take a cautious position on a national legalization of marijuana.
Chris Pappas is prepared for the election. He has raised a little more than a million dollars – four or five times more than any one of his potential Republican competitors. During his great pause, Chris Pappas spent very little. He will need all of that million dollars and much more.
Seven Republicans are competing to take him on. Among the seven are Robert Burns (you remember him), his 2020 opponent Matt Mowers from the Trump administration and the pharmaceuticals, and television reporter Gail Huff Brown who is married to Donald Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand, the former US Senator from Massachusetts, the Republican elected to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat. There is no favorite for the Republican nomination. The primary is not until September 13 which gives the winner less than two months to create a campaign against the incumbent.
Money raised for Chris Pappas https://www.chrispappas.org now makes a difference. Early money generates momentum and generates more money. Help Chris Pappas make his reelection a probability for New Hampshire voters. We need him in the House of Representatives. This election, we need every Democrat we can elect.
Vulnerable incumbent Democrats and Dems defending Open Democratic Seats. (More will be added to this list)
Northeast
New Hampshire 01 Chris Pappas https://www.chrispappas.org , New Jersey 07 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com Received 50.61% of the vote in 2020
Elsewhere in the US
Arizona 01 Tom O’Halleran https://www.tomohalleran.com Received 51.61% of the vote in 2020
Georgia 07 Carolyn Bordeaux https://www.carolyn4congress.com Received 51.39% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting has forced Lucy McBath https://lucyforcongress.com/home/ of GA 06 into the same district. That’s a tough choice.)
Iowa 03 Cynthia Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Received 48.9% of the vote in 2020
Illinois 14 Lauren Underwood https://underwoodforcongress.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Kansas 03 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com/ A ten point victor, but facing redistricting for 2022
Michigan 08 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com Received 50.88% of the vote in 2020
Michigan 11 Haley Stevens https://haleystevensforcongress.com Received 50.2% of the vote in 2020
Minnesota 02 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com Received 48.21% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 03 Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com Received 48.75% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 04 Steve Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Oregon 04 Peter DeFazio https://www.defazioforcongress.org Received 51.26% of the vote in 2020
Texas 07 Lizzie Fletcher https://www.lizziefletcher.com Received 50.79% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for her)
Texas TX 15 Vicente Gonzalez http://www.vicentegonzalez.com Received 50.5% of the vote in 2020 (He is now running in the safe Democratic TX 34)
Texas 32 Colin Allred https://www.colinallred.com Received 51.95% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for him)
Virginia 02 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com Received 51.6% of the vote in 2020
Washington 08 Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com Received 51.79% of the vote in 2020
Wisconsin 03 Brad Pfaff https://bradpfaff.com Candidate to replace retiring Ron Kind
Democrats to flip Republican seats
California 25 Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org Help her make the third time a charm.
California 48 Harley Rouda https://harleyforcongress.com Help him get his seat back from a far rightist supporter of Trump and Elder
Illinois 13 David Palmer. https://palmerforillinois.com Help this financial planner and former basketball player and defeat a perpetually vulnerable Republican
Iowa 02 Christina Bohanan https://bohannanforcongress.com Help this popular U of Iowa law school professor and state rep
North Carolina 08 Charles Evans https://www.charlesevansforcongress2022.com/ Help this formerly incarcerated guy who created a non-profit to help others like him
New Mexico 03 Gabe Vazquez https://gabeforcongress.com Help this outdoorsman who knows how to make government work
Ohio 15 Allison Russo https://allisonrusso.com Help this health care researcher win an open Republican seat.
Oklahoma 05 Abby Broyles https://www.abbybroyles.com Help this young, former television celebrity and investigative reporter defeat a vulnerable Republican
Pennsylvania 10 Eugene DePasquale https://eugeneforcongress.com Help the former State Auditor defeat Incumbent Scott Perry — the most active Congressional conspirator to overturn the 2020 election
Texas 23 John Lira https://liraforcongress.com Help this military guy with roots in San Antonio defeat a conventional Republican (Redistricting makes winning this seat tougher.)
Virginia 01 Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.com Help this former Marine Colonel and medical exec defeat an extreme Republican in a district hinting at purple
Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
The Lincoln Project https://lincolnproject.us. Former Republicans whose messaging is tougher than ours,
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