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MIDWEST: Political Note # 398 David Palmer IL 13, Political Note #376 Lauren Underwood IL 14, Political Note #398 David Palmer IL 13, Political Note #418 Cindy Axne IA 03, Political Note #378 Elissa Slotkin MI 08, Political Note #357 Haley Stevens MI 11, Political Note #355 Angie Craig MN 02
SOUTHEAST: Political Note #385 Carolyn Bordeaux GA 07, Political Note #410 Charles Evans NC 08, Political Note #416 Stewart Navarre VA 01, Political Note #388 Elaine Luria VA 02
NORTHEAST: Political Note #363 Tom Malinowski NJ 07, Political Note #394 Susan Wild PA 07, Political Note #397 Eugene DePasquale PA 10
SOUTHWEST: Political Note #389 Tom O’Halleran AZ 01, Political Note #375 Steven Horsford NV 04, Political Note #356 Susie Lee NV 03, Political Note #377 Lizzie Fletcher TX 07, Political Note #362 Vicente Gonzalez TX 15, Political Note #411 John Lira TX 23, Political Note #399 Colin Allred TX 32
WEST: Political Note #383 Harley Rouda CA 48, Political Note #417 Abby Broyles OK 05, Political Note #384 Peter DeFazio OR 04.
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November 25th, 2021 Political Note #428 Cindy Axne IA 03
2022 General Election
Cindy Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com spent a fair portion of 2021 considering whether she should run for the US Senate or for governor. Like Chris Pappas (NH 01) each considered the possibility that gerrymandering would make for an untenable district and that a run for governor would be an option.
Iowa has finished redistricting and Cindy Axne has made her decision. She is running for reelection to a third term in the House of Representatives. That’s a good thing. Democrats do not need another open Democratic seat to defend. In Iowa, it is tough enough to elect a Democrat to Congress. Reelection is a better bet.
When Democratic control of Congress is firmer than it is today, Cindy Axne should run for Governor. She may have earned her reputation for sharp elbows while playing old fashioned 6 on 6 girls’ basketball in high school where she was an imposing six footer. Or she may have earned that reputation as a manager, working in Iowa government. She has demonstrated that she is good at governing. Not that her time in government was always clear sailing.
Cindy Axne was fired from her job in the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. We don’t know the details. She has kept her mouth shut, which is probably an indication of integrity. The Republicans have never said anything either. Since they did they firing, I would not credit them with integrity on the issue. She had worked for nine years in state government — in the Department of Administrative Services and later the Department of Management under two Democratic administrations. She worked at the Department of Natural Resources as administrator of the management services division from which she was fired by the Republicans.
Cindy Axne was a back of the house person. She focused on budgets, personnel management, technology — unglamorous work. “I made sure state agencies had proper processes and strategies in place to implement their services in a tighter fashion — making sure they used taxpayer dollars wisely.” Even though she has a 100% voting record supporting President Joe Biden in this deeply partisan House of Representatives, she says much the same about most of her work in Congress: “It’s not policy, it’s problem solving.”
Cindy Axne was born in Michigan, but grew up in Iowa, graduating from Valley High School in West Des Moines. She majored in journalism at the University of Iowa, then got an MBA from Northwestern. From Northwestern, she went to work in Chicago for the Tribune company. She worked in journalism, but not as a reporter. She worked in leadership development and planning for the Tribune before returning to Iowa to work in state government.
Cindy Axne has recounted, maybe only once in public, an incident that demonstrated her toughness. Walking home alone at night in Chicago, she started walking faster when she noticed she was being followed by, it turns out, a man wearing a ski mask. He caught up with her and pushed her into an alley. Rejecting his threats if she didn’t stay quiet, she screamed, punched him with the hand that she carried keys in to protect herself, and kicked him. He ran off as people turned on their lights and appeared to be coming to her aid.
With her second term underway, Cindy Axne’s 2022 campaign will be different from her past campaigns. In 2018, she attacked an incumbent Republican for his opposition to the Affordable Care Act and his lack of concern for the health of his constituents. In 2020, she attacked him again as he ran to get his seat back. The 2020 vote was close. She got 48.9% of the vote and won by 1.3% or a little more than 6,000 votes. She won’t have David Young to kick around in 2012. Three Republicans have announced their candidacy for the nomination against her – a State Senator who became an aide to Senator Grassley by way of time in the Air Force, a former State Rep who was also an aide to Senator Grassley and served as Director of White House Correspondence under GW Bush, and an African-American woman who describes herself as a conservative Republican. Whichever Republican gets the nomination and a chance to attempt to mug her, Cindy Axne will have to defend her record.
She has made a couple of unforced errors. She is being attacked for not disclosing financial transactions. She explains that was a failure on the part of her retirement account (and her husband) to make appropriate disclosures. With characteristic generosity of spirit, the head of the Republican Party in Iowa says he doesn’t believe her that this was an unintentional error. She is also being attacked for a statement that, due to Covid, there are hospitals in Iowa that are so overcrowded they can’t accept patients for other essential services. A follow up with the hospitals found that they were crowded, but that they do take life threatening emergency cases like heart attacks or provide services after an automobile accident.
Cindy Axne has plenty to work with in her 2022 campaign – the substantial funds Iowa health centers have received from the American Rescue Plan, her support for both the infrastructure plan and the reconciliation budget plan (the importance of child care support, paid parental and medical leave, the danger of climate change). She can speak about the value of biofuels and child tax credits that are in the budget plan. She serves on the Agriculture Committee – a crucial spot for Iowa. And she is on the financial services committee – crucial for strengthening the economy. She positions herself as a moderate by being a member of the New Democrats Coalition – fiscally moderate, socially progressive. She’s on both the health care task force and the energy and environment coalition (where she can continue to advocate for biofuels).
Cindy Axne will need your help to get re-elected. Through the end of June, she raised $1.2 million. She needed $6 million to win her election in 2020. Help out Cindy Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Make a donation.
Vulnerable incumbent Democrats to support. Democratic Members of Congress who won with less than 52% of the vote or are otherwise vulnerable
Iowa 03 Cynthia Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Received 48.9% of the vote in 2020
Illinois 14 Lauren Underwood https://underwoodforcongress.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Kansas 03 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com/ A ten point victor, but facing redistricting for 2022
Michigan 08 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com Received 50.88% of the vote in 2020
Michigan 11 Haley Stevens https://haleystevensforcongress.com Received 50.2% of the vote in 2020
Minnesota 02 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com Received 48.21% of the vote in 2020
Wisconsin 03 Brad Pfaff https://bradpfaff.com Candidate to replace retiring Ron Kind
Elsewhere in the US
Arizona 01 Tom O’Halleran https://www.tomohalleran.com Received 51.61% of the vote in 2020
Georgia 07 Carolyn Bordeaux https://www.carolyn4congress.com Received 51.39% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 03 Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com Received 48.75% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 04 Steve Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
New Jersey 07 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com Received 50.61% of the vote in 2020
Oregon 04 Peter DeFazio https://www.defazioforcongress.org Received 51.26% of the vote in 2020
Texas 07 Lizzie Fletcher https://www.lizziefletcher.com Received 50.79% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for her)
Texas TX 15 Vicente Gonzalez http://www.vicentegonzalez.com Received 50.5% of the vote in 2020 (He is now running in the safe Democratic TX 34)
Texas 32 Colin Allred https://www.colinallred.com Received 51.95% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for him)
Virginia 02 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com Received 51.6% of the vote in 2020
Washington 08 Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com Received 51.79% of the vote in 2020
Democrats to flip Republican seats (I will keep adding to this list)
California 25 Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org Help her make the third time a charm.
California 48 Harley Rouda https://harleyforcongress.com Help him get his seat back from a far rightist supporter of Trump and Elder
Illinois 13 David Palmer. https://palmerforillinois.com Help this financial planner and former basketball player and defeat a perpetually vulnerable Republican
Iowa 02 Christina Bohanan https://bohannanforcongress.com Help this popular U of Iowa law school professor and state rep
North Carolina 08 Charles Evans https://www.charlesevansforcongress2022.com/ Help this formerly incarcerated guy who created a non-profit to help others like him
New Mexico 03 Gabe Vazquez https://gabeforcongress.com Help this outdoorsman who knows how to make government work
Ohio 15 Allison Russo https://allisonrusso.com Help this health care researcher win an open Republican seat.
Oklahoma 05 Abby Broyles https://www.abbybroyles.com Help this young, former television celebrity and investigative reporter defeat a vulnerable Republican
Pennsylvania 10 Eugene DePasquale https://eugeneforcongress.com Help the former State Auditor defeat Incumbent Scott Perry — the most active Congressional conspirator to overturn the 2020 election
Texas 23 John Lira https://liraforcongress.com Help this military guy with roots in San Antonio defeat a conventional Republican (Redistricting makes winning this seat tougher.)
Virginia 01 Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.com Help this former Marine Colonel and medical exec defeat an extreme Republican in a district hinting at purple
REDISTRICTING AND ITS IMPLICATION – in order of map adoption
Oregon Adds a competitive sixth seat. Probable gain of one Democratic seat.
Maine Slight changes in its two seats. Probable no change.
Nebraska Changes in its one competitive seat. Probable no change
Indiana Makes a competitive seat less competitive. Probable no change.
West Virginia Loses one seat. Probable loss of one Republican seat.
Texas Gains two seats from 23 R 13 D. Adds an R seat and a competitive seat. Probable gain of two Republican seats
Iowa Instead of 3 of 4 competitive seats, one of the 3 becomes a lean R. Probable no change
Alabama 6 Red seats and 1 Blue seat remain. Probable no change
North Carolina 5 Blue seats reduced to 3. 8 Red seats increased to 10. One competitive seat remains. Probable -1 D, +2 R
Nevada No change except Blue and Red seats become leans. Probable – no change
Montana 1 Red seat increased to 2. Probable +1R
Idaho 2 Red seats. Probable no change
Utah 4 Red seats. Makes a lean Red seat solid Red. Probable no change
So far: Probable no changes in Democratic seats and plus 4 Republican seats.
Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
The Lincoln Project https://lincolnproject.us. Former Republicans whose messaging is tougher than ours,
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