Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
MIDWEST: Political Note #376 Lauren Underwood IL 14, Political Note #378 Elissa Slotkin MI 08, Political Note #357 Haley Stevens MI 11, Political Note #355 Angie Craig MN 02, Marcy Kaptur OH 09, Political Note #418 Brad Pfaff WI 03
NORTHEAST: Political Note #385 Chris Pappas NH 01, Political Note #363 Tom Malinowski NJ 07
SOUTHEAST: Political Note #385 Carolyn Bordeaux GA 07, Political Note #410 Charles Evans NC 08, Political Note #416 Stewart Navarre VA 01, Political Note #388 Elaine Luria VA 02
SOUTHWEST: Political Note #375 Steven Horsford NV 04, Political Note #356 Susie Lee NV 03, Political Note #377 Lizzie Fletcher TX 07, Political Note #362 Vicente Gonzalez TX 15
WEST: Political Note #383 Harley Rouda CA 48, Political Note #384 Peter DeFazio OR 04.
120321 Political Note #430 Marcy Kaptur OH 09
2022 General Election
Holy Toledo! Ohio Republicans have targeted Marcy Kaptur https://marcykaptur.com for elimination. They are picking on old ladies now. Seventy-five years old, she has been representing Toledo and environs since she was elected in 1982.
Ohio’s redistricting plan is good for only four years because, according to Ohio law, a ten year plan requires a 60% vote and at least 50% of the two major parties voting for it. No Democrats supported this proposal. Some analysts call the four year plan a trap — that Republicans will elect an even more unfairly gerrymandered state legislature by 2006 and create a worse map.
No matter the criticisms, no matter the lawsuits, the map we’ve got now transforms Marcy Kaptur’s Ohio ninth district into a district with an 8 point Republican lean. Incumbency means something and Marcy Kaptur has that. She is the longest serving woman in the current Congress, the longest serving woman in the House of Representatives of all time, and second only to Maryland’s Barbara Mikulski, who served in both the House and the Senate, as the longest serving woman in Congress ever.
Marcy Kaptur is the daughter of Polish Americans. Her dad ran a small grocery store. He mom was a union organizer in the automobile industry. After graduating from a local Catholic high school, she went to the University of Wisconsin. Wisconsin was her third choice. Out of audacity or ignorance, she applied to two schools which rejected her because they only accepted boys – Notre Dame and the Air Force Academy. She worked for planning commissions after college and then as the director of planning for the National Center for Urban Ethnic Affairs. That organization was founded and led by Geno Baroni, a Catholic priest who eventually served as an Assistant Secretary for Housing and Urban Development under Jimmy Carter. Baroni marched with Martin Luther King Jr. Baroni sought to avoid racial divides by emphasizing the development of ethnic cultures within cities.
After getting a Master’s Degree from the University of Michigan, Marcy Kaptur left the Midwest for a doctoral program at MIT in urban planning. She returned to Toledo when encouraged to run for Congress in 1982. She defeated a one term Congressman by nearly 20 points. Her first competitive election was in 1984 when Ronald Reagan, who carried the district, was seeking reelection. Against a local television anchorman, she won by 11 points. After 1984, she rarely faced a serious challenge. 2010 was a tough year for Democrats throughout the country. Marcy Kaptur won with 59% of the vote. OH 09 was redistricted east after 2010. The district was extended to include the western parts of Cleveland, including the home of former Cleveland “child-mayor” and Congressman from OH 10, Dennis Kucinich. Marcy Kaptur won the. Primary in 2012 56-40 and then faced and defeated a national, but comic figure – Samuel Wurzelbacher, known as Joe the Plumber.
Marcy Kaptur is not shy about her progressive positions. A member of the House Progressive Caucus, she supported Bernie Sanders for President. A member of the defense subcommittee of the Appropriations Committee, she has something to say about American foreign policy. Here are some of the Congressional caucuses she belongs to – Ukranian, Poland, Central and Easter Europe, Hungary, Baltic, and, to mix things up a little, United Kingdom. She has been part of a legacy of facing the Soviet Union and, now, Russia and is a consistent supporter of military spending.
She chairs the Appropriation Committee’s subcommittee on Energy and Water. She supported the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, which narrowly passed the House but never got a hearing in the Senate. The price of her support was inclusion of a provision that allowed the Energy Secretary to create power marketing authorities that would create green energy in areas where the cost of electricity was high.
She has been a figure dealing with the American economy. She opposed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 as a way to cope with the 2008 economic crisis. She blamed the banks for the crisis. She told Wall Street banks that the US doesn’t need to bail them out, that they had perpetrated financial crimes against America. Had she been able, she would have restored the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which separated commercial and investment banking.
She has a 95% approval rating from NARAL. She consistently supports the Roe v Wade Supreme Court decision as the law of the land. Because of her Catholicism or responsiveness to her constituency or both, she has voted to discourage abortions. Among those votes were one against federal funding of embryonic stem-cell research and another for a proposal to include a prohibition in the Affordable Care Act against the federal government paying the cost of a health insurance policy that includes coverage for abortion.
Whoever the Republicans nominate, Marcy Kaptur faces a tough run in 2022. If she wins, she will break the record of another graduate of Geno Baroni’s National Center for Urban Ethnic Affairs, Barbara Mikluski, and become the longest serving woman in Congress ever. We need Marcy Kaptur https://marcykaptur.com to win. Every Democratic seat is crucial and she is an important voice and actor in Congress. Help her keep OH 09 blue regardless of Republican gerrymandering. Donate to her cause.
Vulnerable incumbent Democrats and Dems defending Open Democratic Seats. (More will be added to this list)
Midwest
Iowa 03 Cynthia Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Received 48.9% of the vote in 2020
Illinois 14 Lauren Underwood https://underwoodforcongress.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Kansas 03 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com/ A ten point victor, but facing redistricting for 2022
Michigan 08 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com Received 50.88% of the vote in 2020
Michigan 11 Haley Stevens https://haleystevensforcongress.com Received 50.2% of the vote in 2020
Minnesota 02 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com Received 48.21% of the vote in 2020
Ohio 09 Marcy Kaptur https://marcykaptur.com Redistricting gives her district a +8 Republican lean.
Wisconsin 03 Brad Pfaff https://bradpfaff.com Candidate to replace retiring Ron Kind
Elsewhere in the US
Arizona 01 Tom O’Halleran https://www.tomohalleran.com Received 51.61% of the vote in 2020
Georgia 07 Carolyn Bordeaux https://www.carolyn4congress.com Received 51.39% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting has forced Lucy McBath https://lucyforcongress.com/home/ of GA 06 into the same district. That’s a tough choice.)
Nevada 03 Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com Received 48.75% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 04 Steve Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
New Hampshire 01 Chris Pappas https://www.chrispappas.org
New Jersey 07 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com Received 50.61% of the vote in 2020
Oregon 04 Peter DeFazio https://www.defazioforcongress.org Received 51.26% of the vote in 2020
Texas 07 Lizzie Fletcher https://www.lizziefletcher.com Received 50.79% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for her)
Texas TX 15 Vicente Gonzalez http://www.vicentegonzalez.com Received 50.5% of the vote in 2020 (He is now running in the safe Democratic TX 34)
Texas 32 Colin Allred https://www.colinallred.com Received 51.95% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for him)
Virginia 02 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com Received 51.6% of the vote in 2020
Washington 08 Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com Received 51.79% of the vote in 2020
Democrats to flip Republican seats
California 25 Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org Help her make the third time a charm.
California 48 Harley Rouda https://harleyforcongress.com Help him get his seat back from a far rightist supporter of Trump and Elder
Illinois 13 David Palmer. https://palmerforillinois.com Help this financial planner and former basketball player and defeat a perpetually vulnerable Republican
Iowa 02 Christina Bohanan https://bohannanforcongress.com Help this popular U of Iowa law school professor and state rep
North Carolina 08 Charles Evans https://www.charlesevansforcongress2022.com/ Help this formerly incarcerated guy who created a non-profit to help others like him
New Mexico 03 Gabe Vazquez https://gabeforcongress.com Help this outdoorsman who knows how to make government work
Ohio 15 Allison Russo https://allisonrusso.com Help this health care researcher win an open Republican seat.
Oklahoma 05 Abby Broyles https://www.abbybroyles.com Help this young, former television celebrity and investigative reporter defeat a vulnerable Republican
Pennsylvania 10 Eugene DePasquale https://eugeneforcongress.com Help the former State Auditor defeat Incumbent Scott Perry — the most active Congressional conspirator to overturn the 2020 election
Texas 23 John Lira https://liraforcongress.com Help this military guy with roots in San Antonio defeat a conventional Republican (Redistricting makes winning this seat tougher.)
Virginia 01 Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.com Help this former Marine Colonel and medical exec defeat an extreme Republican in a district hinting at purple
REDISTRICTING AND ITS IMPLICATION – in order of map adoption
Oregon Adds a competitive sixth seat. Probable gain of one Democratic seat.
Maine Slight changes in its two seats. Probable no change.
Nebraska Changes in its one competitive seat. Probable no change
Indiana Makes a competitive seat less competitive. Probable no change.
West Virginia Loses one seat. Probable loss of one Republican seat.
Texas Gains two seats from 23 R 13 D. Adds an R seat and a competitive seat. Probable gain of two Republican seats
Iowa Instead of 3 of 4 competitive seats, one of the 3 becomes a lean R. Probable no change
Alabama 6 Red seats and 1 Blue seat remain. Probable no change
North Carolina 5 Blue seats reduced to 3. 8 Red seats increased to 10. One competitive seat remains. Probable -1 D, +2 R
Nevada No change except Blue and Red seats become leans. Probable – no change
Montana 1 Red seat increased to 2. Probable +1R
Idaho 2 Red seats. Probable no change
Utah 4 Red seats. Makes a lean Red seat solid Red. Probable no change
Ohio 12 Red seats, 4 Blue Seats, Now 10 Red Seats, 2 Blue Seats, 3 competitive, Probable change -1B (12-3)
Oklahoma 5 Red Seats.. Now 5 Red Seats. Probable No Change
Illinois 13 Blue Seats, 5 Red Seats becomes 13 Blue Seats, 3 Red Seats. 1 competitive, leans Blue. Probable +1 Blue, -2 Red
Massachusetts 9 Blue Seats. Probable No Change
So far: Probable no change Democratic seats and plus 2 Republican seats.
Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NRDC) https://democraticredistricting.com Led by Eric Holder
The Lincoln Project https://lincolnproject.us. Ex Republicans with tough messaging.
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