Democrat Dan McCready lost the special election for North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional district. He almost won in 2018 despite Republican cheating. In 2018, he ran against a candidate who had ousted the incumbent, reducing the Republican vote a little.
This special election loss resembles Democrat Jon Ossoff’s 2017 special election loss in GA 06. What happened there next? The Democrat won the next general election.
More important than one or two Congressional seat, look at the trends in both districts. Look at the demographics These are similar districts. They are largely suburban southern districts. Charlotte, NC. Suburban, Atlanta, GA. They, and districts like them, are become Democratic. Much more than they were just a few years agol
In 2018, GA 06 elected an African-American gun safety activist to Congress in the general election. Who will NC 09 elect in 2020?
Georgia 06 North Carolina 09
60% white, 15% black, 11% Asian 65% white, 20% black, 2% Asian
12% Hispanic 8% Hispanic, 8% Native America
2002 R 80-20 +122,000 votes 2002 R 72-26 +90,000 votes
2004 R 100-0 +267,000 votes 2004 R 70-30 +120,000 votes
2006 R 72-28 + 99,000 votes 2006 R 67-33 +53,000 votes
2008 R 68-32 +125,000 votes 2008 R 62-36 +103,000 votes
2010 R 100-0 +198,000 votes 2010 R 69-31 +87,000 votes
2012 R 65-35 +85,000 votes 2012 R 52-46 +23,000 votes
2014 R 66-34 +68,000 votes 2014 R 94-neg +153,000 votes
2016 R 62-38 +76,000 votes 2016 R 58-42 +54,000 votes
2017 special election
R 52-48 +9,000 votes
2018 D 50.5-49.5 +3,000 votes 2018 Voided, Republican cheating
2019 special election
R 51-49 + 4,000 votes
