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July 10th , 2023 Political Note #573 Virginia’s State Senate
2023 General Election
CURRENT VIRGINIA STATE SENATE
22 Democratic Senators
17 Republican Senators
1 Republican Senator who does not caucus with the Republicans
I begin with thanks. First to Daily Kos. In addition to its regular insightful analysis on matters that range from domestic politics to the Ukraine/Russian War, the website analyzes political results in ways that help us understand the voters better. Second, to Carolyn Fiddler, whose This Week in State House Action, provides really useful information about state elections.
Carolyn Fiddler drew on Daily Kos’s precinct-based analysis of previous election results for Virginia’s newly created House of Delegates and State Senate districts. Her work served as the starting point for the previous Political Note and today’s Political Note.
Carolyn Fiddler reported that Daily Kos found that, of the 40 Virginia State Senate Seats (all newly created by redistricting thus the requiring complicated analysis referred to above):
- 20 were won by President Joe Biden in 2020 AND by former Governor Terry McAuliffe for Governor in 2021. Count those as Democratic districts.
- 16 were won by then President Donald Trump in 2020 AND by Governor Gregg Youngkin in 2021. Count those as Republican districts.
- Four districts were won by Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 and Republican Governor Gregg Youngkin in 2021. Count those districts as toss-ups or swing districts.
We cannot be absolutely certain that everything will remain the same – that, in 2023, the Democrats will win the districts won by Biden and McAuliffe; that, in 2023 the Republicans will win the districts won by Trump and Youngkin. Certainty does not work in politics. Probability works. The Democratic districts will probably be carried by the Democratic candidates. The Republican districts will probably be carried by the Republican candidates.
Control of the Virginia State Senate probably depends on the swing or toss-up districts. If Democrats are to retain control of the Virginia State Senate, they will need to win at least one of the four toss-up district seats. If would be better, of course, to win all four of those seats.
Look at these toss up districts:
SD 16 Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg is the Democratic nominee. In 2017, he was covered by newspapers and television as an oddity. He was the first Democrat in ten years to run for Delegate in his district in the northern suburbs of Richmond.
Times have changed. Even though, Donald Trump had been elected President in 2016, by working hard, by knocking on doors, Schuyler VanValkenburg won his election in 2017. He found that some of the people he spoke to did not know that their state Delegate was a Republican. Some people who were not previously conscious of politics had been awakened to politics by the Republican President. Schuyler VanValkenburg was part of Virginia’s mini blue wave of 2017. He was elected by a 53-47 margin. He was reelected by roughly the same margin in 2019 and 2021.
A teacher, he was able to continue teaching while serving in Virginia’s part-time legislature. Born in Johnstown, New York (the city of the famous flood), his name is a reminder of New York’s Dutch origins. Schuyler VanValkenburg went south to get his BA at the University of Richmond and he stayed.
A three-term Delegate, after the 2000 census, he was drawn into the same district as Delegate Lamont Bagby. Schuyler VanFalkenburg stepped up to run for the State Senate. Bagby and fellow Henrico County Delegate Rodney Willett endorsed him for the larger Senate district. In running for the State Senate, Schuyler VanValkenburg outlines his priorities, the first of which is education.
Schuyler VanValkenburg calls for investing in education — increased funding for schools for pay increases and additional educational resources. He proposes fewer and more focused assessments of students’ skills and knowledge, transparent school-police memorandums of agreement, and more effective transition experiences for children with disabilities. He knows about education in Virginia in detail.
His other priorities range from protecting reproductive rights and improved access to healthcare to prevention of gun violence, to expanding equal treatment for the poor and the rich throughout Virginia.
Schuyler VanValkenburg’s Republican opponent is the incumbent, Siobhan Dunnavant. A former nurse with degrees from Randolph College and the University of Virginia, she earned a medical degree from the Eastern Virginia Medical School and now practices obstetrics and gynecology.
Siobhan Dunnavant comes from a political family. Her siblings include a former delegate, a county sheriff, and a Commonwealth Attorney. Dunnavant was elected to the State Senate in 2017 and reelected to the 4 year position in 2021. Aware of her opponent, her website includes a focus on education accomplishments – raises for teachers, standardization of public college financial aid, and mandatory credit for some community college courses from public four year colleges. Based on her own professional background, she includes a focus on legislative accomplishments related to health – mandatory communication among emergency rooms to minimize excessive tests, mandatory insurance company explanation of alternatives to patients including savings to patients for making lower cost choices.
Dunnavant has not a word to say about abortion or reproductive rights in her website. To get out in front of the abortion issue, she had an interview with the Washington Post. She reviewed her advertisement now showing online on the topic. In the advertisement, she explains that since Roe was overturned, Virginia is the only southern state that has not created restrictions for abortion.
She uses moderate language to attempt to moderate the conversation. She would “allow” abortions during the first 15 weeks of pregnancy and does not use the word “ban.” She would “allow” abortions later than 15 weeks when the mother’s life is in danger, but not to protect her mental or physical health. That time extension ends at 22 or 24 weeks. After that, to protect the mother’s life (but not for her mental or physical health), Dunnavant would “allow” a C-Section to deliver the baby early. She describes abortions shortly before birth as “unnecessary, extreme, and heart breaking.” She would make exceptions for non-viable pregnancies, but not for fetal anomalies.
The Washington Post described Dunnavant’s position as nuanced. Schuyler VanValkenburg described her position as extremist and out of touch with her constituents. The Washington Post describes this race as the closest Virginia State Senate race. The Post could have described it as the most closely watched race as well.
Schuyler VanValkenburg has already raised $605,367 for this Senate race. But Siobhan Dunnavant has raised $1,353,844. Schuyler VanValkenburg needs to raise more, a lot more. Be a part of that effort. Help him win his seat and help the Democrats keep control of Virginia’s State Senate.
SD 17. Democrat Clint Jenkins is local enough. Though he was born in Philadelphia, but was raised in Suffolk and graduated from the local John F. Kennedy High School. He joined the army right out of high school, went to college in Florida at Saint Leo University, and then studied at Southeastern Baptist University.
Clint Jenkins did not become a preacher. He combined what he learned in the military with what he learned about human resources administration from college and went to work for Earl Industries in Portsmouth administering subcontracts for ship repair. After five years there, he moved to BAE Systems, an international defense contractor, to administer bigger projects in a bigger firm. He has been at BAE for 12 years, but not only there. He studied up on real estate, got the license he needed, and owns and operates his own firm.
In 2019, he ran for office – and was elected to the House of Delegates, flipping what had been a Republican seat. He identifies his issues as lowering the cost of living, protecting reproductive freedom, defending voting rights, and defending democracy. The revised Senate district extends south to the North Carolina border and west from Norfolk to south of Richmond. The district is 50% white, 40% Black. Elect Clint Jenkins and Virginia would have a Black State Senator in a majority white district.
Clint Jenkins is running against Emily Brewer, another member of the Virginia House of Delegates. She came to Virginia from Ohio and she, too, owns her own business – a wine and craft beer shop in Suffolk. Her politics are deeply conservative, defined by her membership in the NRA, her opposition to regulation of businesses, and her personal story which supports her un-nuanced pro-life stand. She is an adoptee and argues that the proper resolution to an unwanted pregnancy is adoption.
Clint Jenkins has some serious fund raising to do if he is going to compete effectively for this seat. He has raised only $44,466 while Emily Brewer has raised $423,580. Make a special effort on his behalf. Virginia will be better off with Clint Jenkins in the State Senate. So will the country.
SD 24. Democrat Monty Mason may have the advantage in this race. He is the incumbent and a conservative Virginia Democrat. Born in Farmville, which was part of the massive resistance to school desegregation, he went to the College of William and Mary before going to work for Landamerica. He worked for this third largest title insurance company in the country as a Regional Sales Manager, Regional Settlement Manager, and Financial Group Regional Sales Manager. For his last 12 years of his working full time, he moved on to VISA, He worked as a Senior Sales Director and Senior Account Executive.
Unsurprisingly, Monty Mason is a business-oriented Democrat. He chaired Williamsburg’s Economic Development Authority and received multiple awards from the Virginia Chamber of Commerce for, among things, ensuring that there were health care options available for small businesses.
Monty Mason’s intends to protect reproductive rights. He is opposed to the government interfering with decisions that belong to women in consultation with their doctors. When he addresses the importance of public safety, he focuses on keeping dangerous weapons away from dangerous people. When he addresses the environment, he considers Virginia’s natural beauty and also green energy such as the offshore wind industry.
Monty Mason is a long way from the college photographs of him participating in mock slave auctions. He is no activist, but he argues for improving education for all, is the Chair of the Foster Care caucus, and works for more services for families. Among the services most important to him are community mental health agencies.
Monty Mason’s opponent is Sheriff JD Diggs. A graduate of Bluefield University, a Christian school, he worked in the York County Sheriff’s office for 11 years and has been the sheriff for York-Poquoson for 23 years. He describes himself as having conservative ideals and claims to have cut the crime rate by 25%. His principal goal would be giving the police the tools they need to put criminals behind bars. While he is at it, he would also cut or eliminate a variety of taxes.
The district runs south from Newport News (whose population is half of the Senate district) to Williamsburg, Rounding off, it is 55% white, 30% Black, and 10% multi-racial. Monty Mason has raised $931,216 for this contest. JD Diggs has been no slouch. He has raised $639,306. Help Monty Mason stay ahead in the money race and win the electoral race.
SD 31. Russet Perry has a task ahead of her. Originally from Houston, Texas where her dad taught school, she came to the DC area to attend George Washington University and stayed. She got her JD from Georgetown and went to work where she lived. In the Loudon County Commonwealth’s Attorney’s Office, she prosecuted domestic violence, sexual assault, and even murder. Away from the office for two years, she worked for the CIA. After she returned, she served as a Special Justice presiding over mental health commitment hearings, Eventually, she entered private practice, joining the Marquis Law Group.
Russet Perry enters the political arena with well-developed ideas about the issues to be addressed in Virginia’s Senate. She begins with a commitment to ensure that Virginia does not join the states banning abortions. She says the next step would be to prohibit contraception. Russet Perry seeks to ensure equal pay for women, access to health care for everyone, and to make Virginia an affordable place to live. Experienced in dealing with the criminal justice system, she commits herself to equal justice, to gun safety, and to ensuring that the most vulnerable people in Virginia are not left behind. Among the most important issues she raises is the need for civil discourse – of finding a way to ensure that the conversation about issues occurs in a thoughtful and intelligent way.
Russet Perry is a candidate about whom even an outsider can feel passionate. Her opponent, Juan Pablo Segura, may incite passion from an entirely different political group. Segura is a software executive and the son of billionaire Enrique Segura. Juan Pablo Sequra opened his campaign describing his then probable opponent as a “George Soros-backed Commonwealth attorney who refused to prosecute criminals.” He accused the Democratic leadership, when in power, as “maniacally imposing equity that ends up systematically oppressing minority students.” This is a man who is not focused on civil discourse, who believes his own rhetoric and is a danger for Virginia and for us all.
The winner in this election will have an opportunity for state-wide leadership. Help fund Russet Perry to victory in this district west of Reston and Manassas. Russet Perry raised a respectable $378,886, but spent much of it in the primary she had to win. Juan Pablo Segura, with no primary to drain his cash, raised $755,336. More important, he has nearly unlimited family resources to draw on for this campaign. Russet Perry needs your help.
Invest in Virginia. Keep the State Senate Democratic. Prepare the country for 2024 and Virginia for 2025. A Democratic House of Delegates and a Democratic Senate will make a big difference to Virginia and – to the country.
Invest in the others states that also have elections coming up on November 7, 2023
Democrats for Governor:
Incumbent Andy Beshear Kentucky, Formerly, the Attorney General. Len’s Political Note #533
Shawn Wilson Louisiana, Formerly the State Secretary of Transportation Len’s Political Note #549
Brandon Presley Mississippi, Formerly one of three elected public service commissioners. Len’s Political Note #535
Democrats for Attorney General
Colonel Pamela Stevenson Kentucky, former Senior Official in the Air Force Judge Advocate system and state rep Len’s Political Note #561
Greta Kemp Martin Mississippi, Litigation Director, Disability Rights, Mississippi. Len’s Political Note #563
Democrats for Treasurer
Dustin Granger Louisiana, Financial Advisor. Len’s Political Note #562
State Supreme Court Justice
Dan McCaffery Pennsylvania, Superior Court Judge. Len’s Political Note #571
Virginia Democrats for the House of Delegates. See Len’s Political Note #572
Joshua Thomas HD 21 Attorney and Marine Corp Veteran
Susanna Gibson HD 57 Nurse Practitioner and public health policy maven
Josh Cole HD 65 Pastor, political staffer, and former Delegate
Jessica Anderson HD 71 School secretary and children’s advocate
Kimberly Pope Adams HD 82 Retired auditor and proponent of transparent government
Michael Feggans HD 97 Veteran and cybersecurity entrepreneur
A word about Ohio.
Help defeat Ohio’s August referendum intended to require a supermajority of 60% to pass future referendums. The August referendum was designed to foil Ohio’s November referendum to ensure abortion rights in that state. The Ohio Democratic Party will use these funds for a coordinated effort to defeat the August referendum which, according to polls, is too close to call.
