Political Note #512 Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri elections

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October 7^th, 2022  Political Note #511 Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri elections

2022                           General Election

Illinois was once one of the very largest states.  Now it is the sixth largest.   Indiana is 17^th,  Missouri is 19^thand Iowa is 32^nd. The four states together are a almost as large as Texas.   Together, of course, they have eight senators. Each of them is electing a Senator. There is a slim possibility of flipping a Republican seat. Two of them are electing a governor. Take a look.

Governors

Illinois

 

Inc JB Pritzker

Start with his first accomplishment.   JB Pritzker will not go to jail.  Four of Illinois’s last ten governors were convicted and jailed: Democrat Rod Blagojevich, Republican George Ryan, Democrat Daniel Walker, and shockingly, Democrat Otto Kerner.

Many believe that one way to get protection from money grabbing, corrupt politicians is to elect the rich.  That has worked with JB Prtizker. The Pritzker family owns the Hyatt hotel chain and more. Originally a Californian, JB Pritzker is a graduate of Milton Academy, Duke, and Northwestern Law School. After Northwestern he stayed in Chicago, creating venture capital groups. The closest he came to scandal was to respond affirmatively to the wiretapped Blagojevich’s question about his interest in being appointed state treasurer while also remarking about possibility of appointing an African American to replace Barack Obama as US Senator.

In 2018, he defeated a Republican incumbent.  Key to his success was the bipartisan budget for 2019-20 which paid for new programs with increased taxes without anticipating revenue either from the new recreational marijuana law or from a tax amnesty.  He used the new money toward paying down the state’s backlog of unpaid bills.

He used the next few years passing a Democratic agenda –

• repealing a 1975 law that criminalized abortion,
• implementing the 2019 cannabis law,
• implementing the budget’s additional funds for K-12 education, community colleges, and public universities,
• joining the US Climate Alliance,
• handling Covid with timing that addressed the necessities while avoiding a backlash,
• expanded legal gambling,
• exercised greater control over stores that sold guns,
• taxed private insurance to support Medicaid,
• signed an executive order to welcome immigrants,
• adjusted the gas tax to match inflation and passed a substantial infrastructure law,
• raised the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2025,
• signed an executive order requiring schools to be affirming of transgender and nonbinary students,
• raised the tax on cigarettes
• made election day a legal holiday,
• passed a Fair Tax income tax law ensuring a graduated income tax, and
• passed a series of laws and signed executive actions to fix the parole system, address human trafficking, and address racial disparities in law enforcement.

JB Pritzker has a Republican opponent State Senator Darren Bailey.  A far-right politician, he sued the governor over Covid restrictions and won.  The judge limited the application of that victory.  Only Bailey was free of those restrictions. Bailey is among those who have refused to acknowledge that Joe Biden was legitimately elected President.  If Joe Biden does not run for President in 2024, count JB Pritzker as one of the Democratic possibilities.

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Pritzker would win more than 99 times in 100 and found that he was ahead  6 – 39.7
• Recent Polls can help
  • A Republican funded B/C rated poll reported on September 27^th Pritzker leading 48-40
  • A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 23^rd that Pritzker was leading 51-36
  • A Republican funded unrated poll reported on September 10^th that Prtitzker was leading 44-37
  • An independently funded B/C rated poll reported on September 1^st that Pritzker was leading 47-36
  • A Republican funded B/C poll reported on September 1^st that Pritzker was leading 50-38
• According to the Center for Illinois politics, JB Pritzker entered July with $60.8 million in campaign funds, Bailey had less than $400,000

Iowa

Deidre DeJear

Incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds took a while to get started.  In retrospect, we realize that her unsuccessful attendance at four colleges before completing a degree from Iowa State  much later in 2016 is probably a result of alcoholism.  She does not make a deal of it,  but has stated that she is a recovered alcoholic – something to appreciate rather than be ashamed of.  Instead, she points to her values in faith, family, and hard work.

She also points to accomplishments.  Elected County Treasurer for four terms, defeating an incumbent Democrat for the State Senate, she was chosen in 2010 by Republican gubernatorial nominee Terry Barnstead to be his Lt. Governor.  In 2017, when Barnstead resigned to accept the appointment as ambassador to China, she became Governor of Iowa – the first woman to hold that position.  She has been a supporter of Donald Trump, acknowledging his loss of the 2020 election only in January, 2021, criticizing the January insurrectionists, but noting that they had a good reason for their distress.

Her first campaign point is having signed into law the largest tax cut in state history, eliminating taxes on retirement income.

She adds that she has invested in public education and mental health, in law enforcement and workforce policy initiatives while producing the biggest budget surplus in state history.

As governor, after previously opposing same sex marriage, she accepted Obergefell as settling the issue and allowing same sex marriage throughout the country.

She signed into law a prohibition of transgender girls and women participating in women sports competitions.

She signed one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country in 2018, but refused to continue a fight over the issue when the law was overturned.

She signed a bill requiring the public universities to “protect all speech on campus.”

She restored voting rights to more than 500 felons who had completed their sentence. During that announcement she referred to her experience with alcoholism and commented that she had been sober since the early 2000s.

She signed into law a bill that made voting harder.

She signed into law a bill that made it legal to purchase and carry weapons without a permit.

She got into some ethical problems through a charity auction, promising a day of her time to the winner who turned out to be a campaign donor; and further problems by arranging a day of Covid testing for the headquarters of another donor at a time when tests were scarce enough that health care residents and staff were unable to get tests quickly.

The largest scandal, though, was yet to come.  The Des Moines Register criticized her advertisement against her African American opponent in language that was unprecedented. The Register described the ad as dehumanizing, racist, embarrassing, indefensible, beneath any elected Iowa official. “It tells people who look different from most Iowans that, at best, they are indeed different and, even worse, inferior.”  It is worth reading the entire Register statement. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/2022/10/02/kim-reynolds-commercial-iowa-governor/10447313002/

What will Deidre DeJear make of this advertisement, first presented on October 2.  She has never had an easy route to follow and getting elected Governor of Iowa is a challenge.  She was born in Jackson, Mississippi and raised in Oklahoma by her father because her mother had died when she was eight year old. She came to Iowa to attend Drake University and chose to stay.  In college, she co-founded a non-profit to help kids with school supplies. She expanded that concept into a business creating marketing tools, not a big business, but big enough to sustain a life in Iowa, a place she had come to value. Her first issue as a candidate is education – ranging from using the surplus to strengthen Iowa’s schools including expanding early childhood programs and recreating trade programs.  Her second campaign issue is protecting reproductive rights – including the creation of clinics for family planning services.

She says not a word about race which, for her, is pretty visible.  Will that remain the case after Reynold’s racist advertisement and the Register’s excoriation of Reynold for that advertisement?

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that DeJear would win less than once in 100 times and found that she was behind  1– 39.1
• There have been no polls since mid-July when a Republican funded poll found DeJear behind by 17 points.
• In mid-July, according to the Des Moines Register, DeJear had $500,000 available for the campaign and Reynolds had $5.2 million.

US Senate

Iowa

Michael Franken

Mike Franken (Political Note #481) a retired Navy Admiral who was born in Iowa, grew up in Iowa, and considered Iowa his him, announced his candidacy for the US Senate in August, 2021.  This was his second time.  He had lost the Democratic primary in 2020 48-25.  From a distance, it appeared to me that there was something naïve about Franken’s campaign.  It wasn’t that he started late.  He announced in August, 2019.  It was that no one knew him and he did not raise enough money to introduce himself.  His total of $1 million was tiny compared Theresa Greenfield’s $28 million in June and total of $47 million raised and spent by November.

I had assumed that the young, but established politician Abby Finkenauer, would win the nomination.  A correspondent told me that Mike Franken was a better candidate and was gaining on her.  Taylor Giorno wrote for Open Secrets that Franken had “narrowed a significant gap in the polls” and had raised quite a lot of money.   Mike Franken won the primary going away 55 – 40.  He looked like a danger to octogenarian Chuck Grassley.  Polls funded by Mike Franken from April and July showed him behind Grassley by 3 to 5 points.  In September a Mike Franken  funded poll showed him 4 points behind.

Mike Franken had convinced many that he was an attractive, moderately progressive candidate who supported women’s rights.  For the US Senate this time, he began in August 2021.  He raised more money — $4.6 million and still had $1 million left at the end of June.  Not a lot compared to Senator Chuck Grassley, who had raised $7.5 million and had $4 million when June ended.

Mike Franken had enough to compete this time.   The filing deadline was March, 2020.  By March, Mike Franken had replaced his campaign manager, a married gay woman who had previously managed John Hickenlooper’s Presidential campaign in Iowa.  He met with Kimberly Stokes Boggess in March after she was replaced.  She claimed he planted an unwanted kiss, but acknowledged it was not a sexual advance.  She nevertheless filed a police complaint.

In September, the Iowa Field Report published an “April” police report alleging that Mike Franken kissed Stokes Boggess against her wishes.  A commentator suggested the story must be true because Mike Franken is not described as being as aggressive as you would make him if you were making up a story. Another suggested he was just being kind of old fashioned. Mike Franken denied the kiss. No other women turned up making claims.  Mike Franken decided to let the story die of its own accord.  He returned to normal campaigning, working to erase that 4 percent deficit.

Give some money to Mike Franken.  Help him create the October surge that could put him over the top.

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Franken would win once in 100 times and found that he was behind 40. 6– 59.4
• Recent polls are helpful
  • A Republican funded B+ rated poll reported on October 4th that Franken was behind 40-54
  • A Democratic funded B- rated poll reported on September 8th that Franken was behind 44-48
• At the beginning of July,  according to Open Secrets, Franken had $1 million available for the campaign and Grassley had $4 million

Indiana

Tom McDermott Jr.  (Political Note #480) is the rebellious son of his father, Tom McDermott Sr.  Like his father, Tom Junior, is the Mayor of Hammond, Indiana.  Tom Senior served two terms and made the city a Republican preserve.  Tom Junior was elected to his fifth term and has become an established figure in Indiana.  Tom Junior’s rebellion? He has run as a Democrat for all five terms.

When Tom Senior fell behind in his taxes, he put his mansion up for auction.  The Dean and Barbara White Foundation bought it for more than its market price. Was there a quid pro quo?  One local insisted that it was nothing like that.  Dean White may have been a billionaire but he sat in the same seat in the coffee shop every morning and was a “nice guy that did well – and never forgot where he came from.”

Tom Junior might have had reasons to forget his origins.  His parents divorced.  He went to California with his mother, but he came back to Indiana each summer.  He joined the navy after high school and spent six years seeing the world.  Back to the US, he chose Indiana.  He got a BA from Purdue Northwest and a JD from Notre Dame.  He opened up a law practice in Hammond.

He ran for mayor in 2003 and defeated the incumbent Republican by 700 votes. He insists he is glad to be a Democrat, but is no liberal. He agrees with liberals about some things – decriminalization of marijuana, free community college, eliminating automatic weapons. He was caustic about Indianapolis busing high school kids to vote.  He said “These kids come from the worst performing schools in the state of Indiana and we are giving them a day off to go vote for Obama. They can vote on election day like everybody else.”  Not that he behaved well all the time.  He acknowledged he had been fined $50,000 for obtaining improper loans from his wife, a local judge.

Can this earthy and occasionally profane small city mayor defeat the incumbent US Senator?  Tom Jr came in second in the 2020 primary for the open 1^st Democratic Congressional seat.  The incumbent Senator, Todd Young, is completing his first term in the Senate after serving three terms in the House of Representatives.  Like Tom Jr he enlisted in the navy after high school.  Seen as officer material, he was appointed to the Naval Academy.  After graduation, he served in the Marines as an intelligence officer and, while stationed in Chicago, got an MBA from the University of Chicago. He completed additional business related studies in Europe including investigating the transition from a planned to a market economy in Eastern Europe.  He became a management consultant, earned a JD from Indiana University, worked for the Heritage Foundation, and ran for Congress.

Young is generally considered a center-right Republican.  He opposes abortion and saw the overturning of Roe v Wade as ending an historic injustice.  The NRA gives him an A+ grade. He opposed the DREAM Act and wants immigration to be based on merit and job skills. He thinks states should decide on same sex marriage, is satisfied with the current policy that allows gays to serve openly in the military, and supports the federal prohibition of discrimination by contractors.  He supported a constitutional amendment to limit the Supreme Court to nine justices, supported the Anti-Boycott Act to punish those who proposed boycotting goods from the occupied West Bank.  He has voted against numerous weapons deals – with Saudi Arabia and others and has sought clearer action by the Senate on declarations of war.  He voted against creating a bipartisan independent commission to examine the January 6 insurrection.  So….a cerebral, mostly cultural conservative but not entirely, ex military opposed to an easy approach to war.  Would that make him vulnerable to Tom McDermott Jr.?

Maybe, says Brian Howey, an Indiana commentator.  Indiana, he says often flips the party of a one term Senator.  That is how Todd Young won his seat. Democrat Joe Donelly did that in 2012.  Indiana’s other Senator, Mike Braun flipped a Democratic seat to get elected.   Furthermore, Howey says Indianans often promote a candidate who came in second in a primary.  Among the Senators who gotten that kind of promotion are Birch Bayh and Dick Lugar (two of Indiana’s most respected Senators, a Democrat and a Republican respectively).  Others include Mike Pence, Phil Sharp, and John Brademas.  Why not Tom McDermott Jr.?  Help him out.

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that McDermott would win 3 times in 100 times and found that he was behind 7– 56.7
• Recent polls can be helpful and, in this case, suggest the race is closer than many think
  • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 26^th that McDermott was behind 37-39
  • A Democratic funded B- poll reported on August 24^th that McDermott was behind 42-45
• Open Secrets reports that at the beginning of July, McDermott had $165,000 available for the campaign and Young had $6.28million.

Illinois

Tammy Duckworth

Born in Bangkok, Thailand, raised and educated in Hawaii, Tammy Duckworth has a BA from U of Hawaii, a Master’s Degrees from George Washington, and a PhD from the online university Capella.  Her dad was American, an Army and Marine veteran with roots back to the American Revolution.  Her mom was Chinese Thai.  The family’s hardest time was after they moved to Hawaii.  Her dad, who had worked with the UN and others on assisting refugees with housing and communities with development was out of work long enough so they needed public assistance themselves. In 1990, while at George Washington, she joined ROTC, was commissioned in 1992 and flew helicopters. Enrolled in a PhD program in political science at Northern Illinois, she coordinated nursing research for the university and worked at Rotary International headquarters in Evanston.  Deployed to Iraq, her helicopter was hit by a rocket propelled grenade.  She lost one leg at the hip, the other below the knee and some mobility in one arm.  After rehab, in 2006, she became director of Illinois’ Department of Veteran’s Affairs.  She ran unsuccessfully for Congress, was appointed by Obama as an Assistant Secretary for the Department of Veteran’s Affairs, and won her race for congress in 2012. She kept on winning until she was elected to the Senate in 2016.  By all accounts she has been effective in Congress. She has supported the disabled and the military, been a figure in foreign policy. She supported gun safety efforts, was horrified by the overturn of Roe v Wade, and has sought comprehensive immigration reform.  She married after joining the military and has two children.

Her opponent Kathy Salvi is an attorney who argues that the US needs energy independence relying on various kinds of energy. She says Biden and Duckworth are siding with “left wing interest groups” leading us to energy dependence and high gas prices. She described the American Rescue Plan as a “wasteful” program that destroyed “work incentives.”

• On October 4^th , 538 projected that Duckworth would win more than 99 times in a 100 and found that he was leading 58.3– 38.6
• Recent polls can be helpful
  • A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 23^rd that Duckworth was leading 50-31
  • A media funded unrated poll reported on August 28^th that Duckworth was leading 58-35
• Open Secrets reports that at the beginning of July, Duckworth had $8 million available for the campaign and Salvi had $400,000.

Missouri

Trudy Busch Valentine

Finley Peter Dunne’s 19^th century fictional character Mr. Dooley said: “Sure, politics ain’t bean-bag. ‘Tis a man’s game, an’ women, childer, cripples an’ prohybitionists’d do well to keep out iv it.”

Some things have changed since the 19^th century.  Women are involved in politics. We have politicians with serious handicaps – the Republican governor of Texas, one of Illinois’ two Senators, a member of Michigan’s Supreme Court.  If you count people under thirty as children (I can, but I’m 80), we have a few Members of Congress who qualify.

Some things have not changed since the 19^th century. The power of money, for one.  Philosophers and poets have written about it. People with money just use it.

Trudy Busch Valentine, the heir to the Anheuser Busch fortune entered the campaign for the US Senate late. Ex marine and anti-corporate activist Lance Kunce had worked himself into being the favorite for the Democratic nomination.  Busch Valentine’s attendance at marches and rallies and $800,000 spent on television advertising destroyed Kunce’s lead.

What has motivated her in general is identifiable – her support for health care (she became a nurse inspired by her own care for a younger sister who died), her fight against opioids (her son died of an overdose), her clarity about women’s rights (including carrying around signs opposing state interference with women’s choice).  She has been a philanthropist.  Moving from that role to political support of unions and the Black community is not automatic, but Trudy Busch Valentine has done that.  She did what she needed to do, created a plan for supporting the middle class, which included a $15 per hour minimum wage, and she won the Democratic primary.

Missouri’s Senate seat is open after a retirement.  Missouri has elected a woman as Senator.  And it defeated her the next time round.  If Trudy Busch Valentine continues to spend her money, she might be competitive with Missouri’s Attorney General who has gained the Republican nomination

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Busch Valentine would win once in a 100 times and found that she was behind 39.7 – 57.1
• Recent polls can be helpful
  • A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 27^th that Busch Valentine was behind 38-49
  • A media funded A rated poll reported on September 18^th that Busch Valentine was behind 36-47
  • A media funded B rated poll reported on August 25^th that Busch Valentine was behind 40-51
• Open Secrets reports that in mid- July, Busch Valentine had $700,000 available for the campaign, AG Eric Schmitt had $1 million remaining at the end of September.

US Congress

In these four states, there are only four Congressional races that are among the 50 closest according to 538 – one in Indiana, one in Iowa, two in Illinois, and none in Missouri.

Indiana

IN 01 D+7

Frank Mrvan

A mortgage broker, pharmaceutical salesman, and the son of a long time Indiana State Senator, Frank Mrvan, won the primary for this seat in 2020 defeating Tom McDermott Jr. by 4 points and the Republican by 16.  Reflecting local interests, he co-sponsored a bill making it easier for unions to organize and has served as co-chair of the congressional steel caucus. He takes particular pride in the 10 projects from the Infrastructure Act that target northwest Indiana as well as the Biden administration’s response to Covid.  He has a focus on ensuring that people have access to the necessities of life including health care with a special note about the importance of women being able to make decisions about their bodies without government interference.  His opponent is Jennifer-Ruth Green.  She is African American, a graduate of the Air Force Academy, and a member of the Air Force Reserves. In civilian life she is the founder of a non-profit called MissionAero Pipeline that works with at risk youth.

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Duckworth would win 86 times in a 100 and found that he was leading 53.7–46.3
• Recent polls can be helpful
  • In May a poll showed Mrvan leading by 7 points.
• Open Secrets reports that at the beginning of July, Mrvan had $650,000 available for the campaign and Green had $500,000.

Iowa 03 R+2

Inc Cindy Axne

When the campaign began, I had hopes that Democrats could regain the two Congressional seats lost in 2020 – IA 01 and IA 02.  Those districts have terrific candidates – State Rep Christina Bohannan, a law professor and State Senator Liz Mathis, a former TV anchor.  Right now, based on 538’s analysis, Bohannan has a 9 in 100 chance of election and Mathis has an 11 in 100 chance.  Not impossible odds.  They are worth looking into.  The necessity, though, is to keep Cindy Axne (Political Note #428) in Congress.  A high school basketball player, she remembers 6 against 6 girls basketball – a genteel game.  Nevertheless, she earned a reputation for sharp elbows. Prior to her return to Iowa, she worked for the Chicago Tribune in leadership planning and development, not front-page work. She worked for nine years in the back rooms of Iowa’s Department of Administrative Services and Department of Management – focused on budgets, personnel management, and technology.  Nothing glamorous here either. When the Republicans took over Iowa’s government, she was fired.  She was tough on the streets, too. Keeping her keys in her hand, she punched and kicked and screamed at a would-be mugger who ran away as soon as he could get away.

If there is a single issue that has moved Cynthia Axne it is the Republican use of the threat of a government shutdown as a lever.  She introduced a bill intended to end such shutdowns forever. She ties this irresponsible budgeting to the difficulties Congress has in doing the serious work of eliminating opportunities for waste and fraud in government programs.

Cynthia Axne is clear on the importance of the practical. She and a Republican colleague from Iowa have proposed a delay in new EPA pesticide regulations so farmers can have the time to learn what is required of them. And she touts constituent work that has led to $7.5 million being returned to Iowa taxpayers.  Her opponent is State Senator Zach Nunn.  He worked in cybersecurity in the military and as the Director of security for the US National Security Council.  His first campaign issue is his commitment to constitutional rights including free speech and the right to bear arms – rights he says are under attack from the radical far left and Big Tech.  His second most important issue is the economy.  He takes pride in the million dollar Iowa tax cut he took part in as a legislator and complains of the billions of dollars wasted by the federal government on “government bureaucracy and liberal wish lists.” Help Cindy Axne stay in Congress.  She will get budgets right.

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Axne would win 46 times in a 100 and found that she was behind 49.7–50.3
• Recent polls can be helpful
  • A Republican funded B/C rated poll reported on September 25^th that Axne was behind 44-48
  • A Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on September 11^th reported that the two candidates were tied at 47.
• Open Secrets reports that at the beginning of July, Axne had $3 million and on September 22 Nunn had $300,000.

Illinois

There are two Illinois districts in the 50 closest districts.  I will add one more Illinois district for you to consider which is an opportunity to flip an Illinois seat to the Democrats.

IL 13 D+7

Nikki Budzinski

IIllinois 13 was a Republican district.  Nikki Budzinksi resigned from the job of Chief of Staff of the OMB to run, feeling confident that the district, as it is now configured, would be a place where she could win. She is from Peoria.  Both grandparents worked in the same school district and were union members.  Nikki Budzinski interned for Dick Gephardt, Paul Simon, and Planned Parenthood and graduated from Illinois – Urbana Champaign.  She stayed in Washington and became the political director for the United Food and Commercial Workers.  In 2018, she joined JB Pritzker’s campaign for governor.  When he was elected, she headed the transition.  When he took office, she became a Senior Advisor while also chairing the state’s Broadband Advisory Council.  She left that position for the OMB in Washington.

Her opponent is Regan Deering.  Adopted by the Andreases of Decatur, Deering went to Duke, then got an education degree from DePaul.  She was an elementary school science teacher at the Francis W Parker School, served as president of the Board for the Northeast Community Fund, and volunteered with the Pawprint Ministries.  Her grandfather, Dwayne Andreas, turned Archer Daniels Midland into a food giant, according to the New York Times, “through his mastery of the grain trade and the levers of political power…”.  Even while leading, Nikki Budzinski needs your financial help:

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Budzinksi would win 90 times in a 100 and found that she was ahead 54.8–45.2
• Recent polls can be helpful
  • A term limits supporting organization funded B- rated poll reported on July 28^th that Budzinski was ahead 39-36
• Open Secrets reports that at the beginning of July, Budzinski had $1 million and Deering had virtually none. Nevertheless, she has access to the funds she needs

IL 06 D+5

Sean Casten

More evidence about how ruthless politics can be.  Growth in Illinois’ Hispanic population made creating a predominantly Hispanic district in and around Chicago compelling.  Surely there were alternatives for how to achieve that goal.  The chosen alternative was to pit recently elected progressive Marie Newman, who had ousted a sitting Congressman in a. primary in 2020 against Sean Casten (Political Note #500), a moderate businessman/scientist in Chicago’s western suburbs.  Sean Casten won the primary easily.

A graduate of Middlebury with a Master’s from Dartmouth and experience working for the consulting firm Arthur D. Little, Sean Casten made a career.  With his father, he created a business called RED – Recycled Energy Development.  He made some money and he was a practical participant in the green energy movement.  His opponent Keith Pekau has been a popular one term mayor who found a way to cut taxes and increase services.

He ran for Congress with energy efficiency as his mission and has sustained that commitment.

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Casten would win 84 times in a 100 and found that he was ahead 53.9–46.1
• There have been no recent polls
• Open Secrets reports that at the beginning of July, Casten had $600,000 and Pekau had virtually none.

IL 17 D+4

Eric Sorensen

This district was Cheri Bustos country.  She chose not to run for Congress for either of two reasons.  Her 2020 race was closer than she expected.  She had been forced to remove the staff she had chosen for the DCCC which she headed because they were not sufficiently diverse.  Or perhaps she had better things to do.

Eric Sorensen (Political Note #489) has a head start making this his country.  He has been a television weatherman on stations in the two big towns in his IL 17.  Rockford, where he grew up.  And Moline which was Cheri Bustos’s home.  Eric Sorensen’s idea of being a weatherman was not being a talking head or a talking chalk board for that matter.  After getting his start in Texas and being fired because his station discovered he was gay, Eric Sorensen was delighted to be back north where that kind of discrimination did not happen much even in rural and conservative IL 17.  He made connections with organizations.  He made connections with schools and organized, under the name Project Tornado, talks about meteorology.  He found a partner. He became a part of the community.  His politics? Like Cheri Bustos, he is a moderate Democrat in a district that is conservative and rural. His politics fit.

His opponent in Esther Joy King, the 2020 Republican candidate. From a big city, big law firm to the Illinois Department of Commerce to the army where she has served as a JAG officer, she has some impressive credentials but is not a part of the community in the same way Cheri Bustos or Eric Sorensen are.  This seat looked very flippable at the beginning of the campaign.  Now it is a challenge.

• On October 6^th , 538 projected that Sorensen would win 67 times in a 100 and found that he was ahead 51.5–48.5
• Recent polls are helpful
  • A Democratic funded A- rated poll reported on September 22^nd that Sorensen was leading 47-38
• Open Secrets reports that at the beginning of July, Casten had $600,000 and Pekau had virtually no money

State Supreme Courts

Iowa has appointed judges.  Missouri and Indiana also have appointed judges, but those judges face a retention election after one or two years to be allowed to complete their term.  Only Illinois has a genuine election for its Supreme Court.  (Political Note #492)

Illinois

The Illinois Supreme Court is composed of 7 members.  Three are from Cook County.  The rest of the state is divided into 4 districts which were redistricted recently for the first time in 60 years.  When a vacancy occurs in the middle of a Justice’s term, the rest of the members of the Court appoint a replacement.  An appointee then runs for a competitive election.  When someone completes his or her 10 year term and wants to continue, continuation is dependent on a retention vote. The justice may continue if he or she gets 60% of the vote.

The court is currently divided 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans. For 2022, there are two competitive elections – one in District 2, the other in District 3.  If the Republicans win both elections, the division in the court will be reversed.

The District 2 vacancy came about because a Republican, Michael J Burke, was appointed to replace a Republican justice who retired. He could not seek a retention election for the District 2 seat because of redistricting.  He no longer lived in District 2.

The District 3 vacancy came about because a well-funded Dark Money Republican group organized opposition to the retention of Democratic Justice Thomas McBride who received more than 50% of the vote for retention, but less than 60%. The Court appointed a Democratic replacement, Robert Carter, who announced that he would not seek reelection.

District 2

Elizabeth Rochford

Democratic nominee Elizabeth Rochford is a judge in Illinois’ 19^th Circuit Court situated in Lake County.  She was a sole practitioner for over 20 years serving part-time as the Commissioner of the Court of Claims. Commissioners of the Court of Claims conduct trials and make recommendations regarding claims against state agencies and other similar matters.  Her opponent is Lake County Sheriff Michael Curran who was the Republican nominee for the US Senate in 2020 against Dick Durbin.  He recommends faith-based programming in prisons.

District 3

Mary O’Brien

Daughter of a union metal worker in Kankakee, Mary O’Brien is a member of the Third District of Illinois’ Appellate Court and is endorsed by numerous educational organizations and unions. Her opponent is the aforementioned Michael J. Burke.  His endorsements include sheriffs, states’ attorneys, and police unions.

Do not donate to any of these candidates unless you live in Illinois.  Out of state donations are illegal.

Down ballot races

Illinois

Attorney General

 Inc Kwame Raoul

The child of Haitian immigrants and a successor to Barack Obama, Kwame Raoul was appointed to the State Senate seat Barack Obama resigned from after he was elected US Senator. Elected Illinois’ Attorney General in 2018, he has remained active supporting legislation – expanding early voting, for energy assistance, death penalty abolition, penalties for intimidation of witnesses who cooperate with the police, and more.  He withdrew from consideration for replacing Barack Obama in the US Senate out of discomfort that Governor Blagojevich might be seeking a quid pro quo.  His opponent Tom DeVore is a former school board candidate with “freedom” tattooed on one arm, “liberty” on the other.  When running for school board he disparaged special needs students.  He was an opponent of Covid restrictions.  Regardless of the office he has run for, he has sued people who criticized him.

 Secretary of State (An office which manages state functions from state IDs to license plates, but does not oversee elections)

Alexi Giannoulias Currently, a Senior Director of BNY Mellon Wealth Management, Alexi Giannoulias is the son of a Greek immigrant and founder of a local bank. He attended the private Latin School of Chicago and The University of Chicago, though he finished his BA at Boston University.  He played professional basketball in Greece before returning to get his JD at Tulane and to work at his father’s bank. In 2006 he was elected State Treasurer, at age 30, the first Democrat in that office in 12 years.  In 2010 he ran for the US Senate and lost to a Republican.  After the loss, he returned to banking except for a 2018 appointment to the Chicago Library Board.  His opponent is State Rep Dan Brady, a funeral home operator and the Deputy Minority Leader in the Assembly.  Both candidates promise to increase the efficiency of the office.

 

Comptroller

Susan Mendoza

Daughter of immigrants from Mexico and a Chicago politician, Susana Mendoza went to Truman State University in Missouri on a soccer scholarship.  She returned home to work as a community organizer.  She coordinated the successful campaign of a Richard M. Daley supported alderman candidate, ran for state rep in 1998 and lost, but was elected the youngest member of the state assembly in 2000.  She was a caustic critic of Governor Rod Blagojevich and a supporter of Al Gore and John Kerry. In 2011, she was elected Clerk for the City of Chicago.  She won a special election in 2016 and is now the incumbent Comptroller. In the office, she has been an advocate for government transparency.  Her opponent is Shannon Teresi, a county auditor.  She had worked for PricewaterhouseCoopers before being hired as an internal auditor by McHenry County in 2010. She was elected County Auditor in 2018.  Running for Comptroller, she is targeting Governor Pritzker for property tax increases.

Treasurer 

Inc Mike Frerichs

After graduating from Rantoul Township high school, Mike Frerichs went to Yale. From Yale, he taught English in Taiwan and studied Mandarin Chinese in university.  He returned home to teach at Rantoul High. In 1998 he ran for state rep.  In 2000, he was elected to the Champaign County Board. After his reelection in 2002, he was appointed County Auditor by the County Board to fill a vacancy. In 2005, he ran for and was elected to the State Senate.  Not since 1936 had a Democrat represented East Central Illinois. In 2014, he was elected State Treasurer 48.1 – 47.8 and reelected with 57.6% of the vote in 2018. As Treasurer, he led an effort to increase the diversity of company boards and an effort to return unclaimed funds. In 2020, he endorsed Elizabeth Warren for President. Term limited as Comptroller in 2022, he is running for Treasurer.  His opponent is State Rep Tom Demmer.  Demmer, a former Vice Presidential intern, he grew up and now represents Dixon, Illinois. His letter to constituents about accomplishments is largely a complaint that Democratic leadership did not fix the Department of Family Services, did not pay off the unemployment insurance debt, and did not reduce taxes.

Iowa

Iowa is a Republican state.  National disputes have affected Governor, US Senate, and Congressional races, Down ballot races have been much less affected. Moderate Democrats hold important down ballot offices – Attorney General, Auditor, and Treasurer.

Attorney General 

Inc Tom Miller

The longest serving Attorney General in American history, Tom Miller went to Loras College, the oldest Catholic College in Iowa.  Loras College has distinguished alumni – among them actor Don Ameche and sportscaster Greg Gumbel.  Tom Miller may be the only alumnus to get a law degree from Harvard. He returned home after serving as a VISTA volunteer for a year and teaching at the University of Maryland, practiced law. He ran (initially unsuccessfully) for the post of Attorney General.  A run for governor was also unsuccessful.  His opponent is Brenna Bird, Guthrie County Attorney.  Home schooled, she went to Drake and then The University of Chicago Law School.  She is proud of having worked with Governor Barnstead against Obamacare and against what she describes as liberal states’ EPA regulations that hurt Iowa farmers. She warns of authoritarianism from the current government in Washington.  

Secretary of State

Joel Miller

Something of a gadfly and activist, Joel Miller has a degree in electronics engineering and works for AT&T.  He was elected to the Robins City Council in 2002, as mayor in 2006 and, in a special election in 2007, as the Linn County Auditor.  He was reelected in 2008 and every four years since then. As Auditor he eliminated inappropriate checking accounts, videoed county supervisor meetings against their wishes, and expanded voter registration to public places like bus stops.  In a debate, he and his opponent, Paul Pate agreed that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, though Joe Miller urged him to castigate Republicans who believe otherwise.  Both candidates agreed on the value of voter IDs, though Pate criticized Joe Miller for being a late comer to this idea, someone who was not there for the legislature’s discussion of the matter.  In civilian life, Pate is president of Pate Asphalt.

 Auditor

Inc Rob Sand

A lobbyist in high school, Rob Sand tried to get the town of Decorah to build a skate park.  A 2005 graduate of Brown, he worked as a model then returned home to get a JD from the University of Iowa in 2010.  In September of that year he was appointed an Assistant Attorney General to work on white collar crime.  He prosecuted a film office tax credit fraud, a Ponzi scheme connected with the Bank of Meekamui in an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, and, finally, the rigged multi-state lottery.  He resigned to run for state auditor and was elected in 2018.  He appointed three top aides – a Democrat, a Republican, and an independent. The office found, in an audit, that Governor Reynolds, while not doing anything criminal, misspent $21 million of federal funds.  His opponent for State Auditor is Businessman Tom Halbur.  Formerly the chief financial officer of the Iowa Alcoholic Beverages Division and now a realtor, he sued the state claiming he was fired after questioning some transactions.

Treasurer

Inc Mike Fitzgerald was a market analyst for Massey Ferguson before he was elected state treasurer in 1982. He turned unclaimed money into the Great Iowa Treasure Hunt.  The state banker, in a way, he has developed mechanisms for investment in local institutions.  He oversees state pension accounts, college savings accounts, and a program to support the expansion of small businesses.  His opponent is State Senator Roby Smith. He touts his Midwest values, work ethic, and financial expertise gained from owning a small business.

 

Agriculture Secretary

John Norwood

Is he from Massachusetts?  John Norwood describes himself as a Tim O’Niell style Democrat.  He graduated from Williams College and worked on water issues in Boston.  He also led an agricultural land trust in California.  He knows something about how to create resilient farming.  He notes that 80 million people live within a day’s drive of Iowa – that these people can be well served by small acreage farms, indoor farms, farm parks that include support for processing, packaging, and distribution.  I spent over 30 years living in Massachusetts’ farm country, such as it is.  If Iowa doesn’t elect him, maybe Massachusetts will put him back to work.    He is running against incumbent Mike Naig.  Naig had been working for agricultural trade organizations before being appointed Deputy Commissioner in 2013.  In 2018, when his boss was appointed to a role in the US Department of Agriculture, Governor Reynolds appointed him to the top job.  In this election, he is supported by the Farm Bureau and corporate leaders like Monsanto and John Deere.

Indiana (Other Constitutional officers are elected in Presidential years)

Secretary of State

Destiny Wells

A graduate of Indiana University and the University of Texas Law school, Destiny Wells has been a member of the Army Reserves for 18 years.  She is an intelligence officer with several combat tours of duty.  She is currently the Indiana Democratic Party’s Deputy Chair for Coalitions and Expansion and for the national party is Counsel for the Truman National Security Project.  In Indiana, she has been Associate Corporate Counsel for Indianapolis and Deputy Attorney General.  She says she fought for democracy abroad and would ensure democracy at home. Her opponent, the surprise winner of the Republican primary, Diego Morales is beset by complaints that he inappropriately described himself as a veteran and at least two separate claims of sexual harassment, if not assault. These come on top of claims that he called the 2020 presidential election a scam and had plans to cut Indiana’s early voting days in half.

 Treasurer

Jessica McClellan

Accepted to Indiana University’s School of music, she stayed. Jessica McClellan graduated with a degree in journalism and she stayed.  Now she is Monroe County’s Deputy Assessor and a Director for the Hoosier Hills Food Bank.  She has demonstrated an ability to manage and understands the importance of good management for the Treasurer’s office.  Her opponent is Daniel Elliott – Chair of the Morgan County Republican party, owner of a software company, and president of the county redevelopment commission.  He says he has “taken on the Liberal Left and held Republican friends accountable.”  He adds that he is a “strong fiscal conservative” and is focused on shrinking government.

Auditor

ZeNai Brooks

Here is a shot across the bow.  ZeNai Brooks works for Cummins, Inc. This is how they describe her: “ZeNai Brooks is not your average accountant…. An author, blogger, mentor, pastor’s wife, volunteer, crossfitter and spartan racer, Brooks is more than a master of spreadsheets…. as the Financial Analysis Manager, Corporate Responsibility, and the Treasurer of the Cummins Foundation, she revels in seeing how Cummins gifts and grants are making a difference around the world.” If she is able to oust the incumbent Tera Klutz, she will not stop there. In 2016, Klutz was named Auditor of the year by the Indiana Auditor Association.

 

Missouri (A special election due to the announced retirement of the current auditor)

State Auditor

Alan Green

A former cop; a former state rep, Alan Green is the CEO of Green and Associates and the chief financial officer for Missouri’s Minority Business Agency. He had no political plans until three weeks before the filing deadline when he was asked to run to replace Democrat Nicole Galloway who was resigning as Auditor.  He says he is interested in the core of the job – watching the budget.  He is also interested in bringing young people into state government.  Right now their voices are not heard, he says.  If he does this right, he will have a lot of young people looking at budgets and spending. They may learn something.  The people of Missouri, too.  Scott Fitzpatrick says he will bring the same conservative values to the job as he brought to business.  He will root out waste and fraud, block spending on illegal immigrants, reform programs like the low income tax credit which actually funds wealthy developers, ensure that Critical Race Theory is not taught in the schools and keep discussions of gender or sex out of  classrooms. He will prevent waste particularly an office like the St. Louis Circuit Attorney whose failures have led to (he seems to say) murderers allowed to go free.  Alan Green is the safer choice here.

If you had $500 to spend on Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri, here is one way of organizing that spending

Michael Franken                  US Senator from Iowa                                 $100

Tom McDermott                 US Senator from Indiana                            $100

Cindy Axne                            Iowa 03                                                          $. 75

Eric Sorensen                       Illinois 17                                                       $  75

Mike Frerichs            Illinois Treasurer                                                    $  25

John Norwood                      Iowa Agriculture Secretary                       $. 25

Destiny Wells                        Indiana Secretary of State                          $. 25

Jessica McMillan                  Indiana Treasurer                                        $. 25

Zenai Brooks                        Indiana Auditor                                             $. 25

Alan Green                            Missouri Auditor                                           $. 25

If you can figure out a way to make a donation to the two Supreme Court candidates in Illinois, give them each $75 and drop the down ballot candidates. The Supreme Court candidates are Elizabeth Rochford in District 2 and Mary O’Brien in District 3

 

 

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