Political Note #485 Pat Ryan New York 18

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July 21st, 2022        Political Note #485 Pat Ryan New York 18

2022                          General Election

New York’s next primary is on August 23.  This primary is for candidates for State Senator and US Congress.  A state judge found the legislature’s redistricting gerrymander violated New York’s constitution.  The State’s highest court supported that finding and returned the case to the judge for action.  The judge set the date for the primary and set a consultant to work in completing the redistricting in time to allow the primaries to go forward.

Let’s keep the following three Democrats straight:

  1. Sean Patrick Maloney is the current Congressman from NY 18. He is a lawyer and former aide to Bill Clinton.  He’s the head of the DCCC and is the gay one.  He decided to run for NY 17 instead of NY 18 after redistricting.  NY 18 had been moved too far upstate and was not Democratic enough for him.
  2. Josh Riley is a lawyer who once represented Al Franken. He considered running for Congress even farther upstate, but decided to run for NY 19 when NY 19 Congressman Antonio Delgado was chosen as Lt. Governor.  This worked well for him because his home in Ithaca was in the district.
  3. Patrick Ryan, who is the subject of today’s note, is ex military – a former army intelligence officer and graduate of West Point. He had considered running for NY 19 when Antonio Delgado was chosen as Lt. Governor, but is running for NY 18 instead. That worked well for him.  His technology business and home are in NY 18 as is Ulster County for which he is the County Executive.

The three of them participated in a game of musical chairs where all three got a seat; the seat that suited them best.

Other Democrats considered running for NY 18.  One is now running for state senator. One candidate listed by Ballotpedia dropped out of running for Congress in Manhattan.  And one is running for the US Senate against Chuck Schumer; his announcement was covered by at least one newspaper.  You can hardly blame New Yorkers for the confusion.

One Democrat besides Patrick Ryan, remains in the race for NY 18 —  Aisha Mills. She is a news host for AMPlfied on the BNC network.  The website 538 projects that Pat Ryan will be the nominee.

The Republican candidate for NY 18 is Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.  His take on being a representative: “You can stand by your beliefs and represent everybody.”

Pat Ryan is a local.  He lives in Gardiner which is in NY 18.  He grew up in Kingston and went to Kingston High School.  Kingston is now wholly in NY 18.  Pat Ryan’s father had a small business in Kingston; his mom taught school.  From High School, he went to West Point, became an intelligence officer, and served two tours in Iraq.  He is now Executive of Ulster County, much of which is in NY 18.

Pat Ryan describes a characteristic success in Ulster county associated with technology and business.  He led an effort to revitalize an old IBM site that had been abandoned for thirty years.  The building was sold to the County, rented to a New Jersey firm, Natural Resources, with plans to open the building for new industrial and commercial uses.  Pat Ryan can claim an understanding of how to build a business. He built a successful business with 150 employees.   Out of the army after two tours in Iraq, he used his tech skills to create a business that works with government and with non-profits.  If you were to distinguish him from the other two Democrats running for Congressional districts numbered in the high teens, he is the guy who is not a lawyer.

Pat Ryan is a cautious politician.  He does not have an elaborate set of policy proposals for the year he would be a freshman in Congress.  He has three specifics – protect a woman’s autonomy for her health care and other purposes as well, strengthen the economy in a way that works for ordinary people, and ensure public safety.  His campaign goals reflect his priorities as Ulster County Executive.  He worked on helping small businesses, making housing more affordable, and investing in mental health services.  He resisted any effort to raise taxes.

And the Republican candidate Collin Schmitt?  He was born on Staten Island, but grew up in Montgomery, just south of Ulster County.  He went to Catholic University in Washington after which he became a staffer in the Assembly and the Senate.  He earns his money as a real estate agent and is also in the National Guard.  In 2012 he lost a race for the Assembly in the primary.  He ran again in 2016, but lost in the general.  He was elected to the Assembly in 2018 – the 99th district in Rockland and Orange County.  His main goal in his brief term in the state legislature was to prevent legislators from collecting a public pension and a state salary at the same time.

As of July 10, 538’s projection shows Pat Ryan trailing Collin Schmitt – 51.4-48.6 (-2.8).  Over the course of the campaign, Pat Ryan will be an appealing candidate.  He’ll need your resources to make that appeal visible.  Collin Schmitt began April with $400,000.  Pat Ryan had not reported.  He needs to raise money.  He needs your help.  Donate.

These Political Notes are written in order to advise readers about where to put their money in order to make a difference.  More and more I have relied on the Website 538 for that information.  Here is a list of what 538 describes as the 16 closest House races.  Invest in these races and you could make a difference in who controls the House.  I will follow up with more of 538’s 50 closest races.  Democrats always listed first

Republican held seats

  1. NY 22. Projection finds Navy veteran, pro-choice and green energy proponent Francis Conole (Political Note #477) behind Tech entrepreneur and covid mandate opponent Brandon Williams by .1%. R Hold
  2. CA 27. Projection finds former School Board Chair and congressional candidate Chrissy Smith (Political Note #422) behind Incumbent Mike Garcia in this D leaning district by 2%. R Hold
  3. CA 22. Projection finds State Senator Rudy Salas (Political Note #484) behind incumbent David Valadao by 2.4%. R Hold

Democratic held seats

  1. OH 09. Projection finds long time incumbent Marcy Kaptur (Political Note #430) subject to a substantial gerrymander ahead of right wing ideologue and activist JR. Majewski by .1%. D Hold
  2. ME 02. Projection finds conservative D incumbent Jared Golden (Political Note #406) behind former Congressman Bruce Poliquin who never accepted the legitimacy of his loss by .2%. R Flip
  3. PA 08. Projection finds long time moderate incumbent Matt Cartwright (Political Note #469) ahead of former Trump appointee and former congressional candidate Jim Bognet by .4% D Hold
  4. MI 07. Projection finds Incumbent and former CIA agent Elissa Slotkin (Political Note #378) ahead of extreme conservative Army Veteran and State Senator Tom Barrett by .6%. D Hold
  5. CT 05. Projection finds moderate African American incumbent Jahana Hayes (Political Note #454) ahead of African American former State Senator George Logan by .6%. D Hold
  6. NV 03 Projection finds philanthropist and Incumbent Susie Lee (Political Note #456) ahead of right wing attorney April Becker by .6%. D Hold
  7. IL 17. Projection finds Television Meteorologist Eric Sorensen v Attorney and child of missionaries on the Mexico-US border behind by 1.2%. R Flip
  8. MD 06 Projection finds moderate incumbent and wealthy head of family business David Trone (Political Note #466) behind State Delegate Neil Parrot and former candidate by 1.3%. R Flip
  9. CA 13. Projection finds Assemblyman Adam Gray (Political Note #483) ahead of Agrabusinessman John Duarte by 1.6%. D Hold
  10. TX 28. Projection finds anti-abortion incumbent and winner of an extremely close ideological primary ahead of more extremely anti-abortion activist and former Ted Cruz staffer by 1.6%. D Hold
  11. NY 03. Projection finds probable nominee moderate county legislator Joshua Lafazan ahead of developer George Santos by 1.6%. D Hold
  12. VA 07. Projection finds former CIA operative and incumbent Abigail Spanberger (Political Note #438) ahead of county supervisor and former law enforcement staff Yesli Vega by 1.6%. D Hold
  13. NH 01. Projection finds family restaurant owner and incumbent Chris Pappas (Political Note #429) ahead of probable nominee and former Trump advisor Matt Mowers by 2%

This is a net of Democrats losing two seats.  Democrats lose the House if there is a net a loss of five seats.  The danger of losing more is evident.  Of the sixteen closest races, 13 are Democratic held seats.

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