Political Note #484 Rudy Salas California 22

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July 18th, 2022       Political Note #484 Rudy Salas California 22

2022                           General Election

Rudy Salas is from Bakersfield, the big town in California’s new 22nd Congressional District.  The 22nd District is immediately south of California’s 13th , the Congressional District in the Central Valley where Adam Gray is the Democratic candidate.  Bakersfield is at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley and the Central Valley.

Bakersfield, where Rudy Salas was the first Latino city councilor, has a population of about 400,000 almost six times the size of its population fifty years ago.  Kern County, of which Bakersfield is the county seat, is agricultural. The three largest private employers are the Giumarra Companies which are packagers and sellers of produce made available 52 weeks per year they say repeatedly, the Grimmway Farms which is the largest grower, producer, and shipper of carrots in the world, and Bolthouse Farms which grows products for, bottles, and markets health food drinks and dressings.

Bakersfield has been changing as well as growing.  Between 2010, the white population dropped from 57% of the city to 39%.  By 2020, Latinos, without regard to race, were nearly a majority – 45.5%.  Rudy Salas, who graduated from UCLA in 2000 was the district director for a State Senator for six years.  In 2010, Rudy Salaswas elected to the city council.  In 2012, he was elected to the state Senate.  Now he is running against the incumbent Republican Congressman David Valadao.

David Valadao is the son of Portuguese immigrants from the Cape Verde Islands. His father and uncle ran what seemed like a successful dairy farm until it failed.  Lawsuits claimed they had defaulted on $9 million in loans.  In 2018, after agreeing to pay former employees who sued because they had not been paid minimum wage or overtime, the Dairy avoided making the payment by declaring bankruptcy. The Dairy’s leadership claimed their failure was due to excessive government regulation.

While the business was failing, David Valadao was ensconced in the state assembly and then in Congress.  He was elected to congress in 2012.  Until 2016, he was reelected by double digits.  In the Democratic wave of 2018, he lost to Democratic entrepreneur TJ Cox by less than a point. In 2020, Valadao defeated the incumbent by less than a point.

In 2022, David Valadao came pretty close to not making the runoff in the multiparty primary.  He had attracted a couple of Republicans who wanted to replace him because he was one of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. In the primary, Rudy Salas led with 45.4% of the vote.  He was followed by three Republicans: David Valadao 25.6%, Chris Mathys 23.1%, Adam Madeiros 5.9%.  Chris Mathys worked hard to get Trump’s endorsement, but failed.  He sued the California Secretary of State office to get listed as a “Trump Republican” and failed at that, too.  Like Valadao, Madeiros is the son of immigrants from the Cape Verde islands. He collected enough votes to keep Mathys from coming in second.  Had Valadao faced only one Republican opponent, he might not have made the run off at all.

Rudy Salas describes himself as a legislator who brings back results to his district.  He points to the protective equipment he was got sent to the Central Valley during the pandemic and a $50 million post-pandemic investment he directed toward local nursing homes, an emergency response center, a cooling center, Bakersfield College, and clean water. He has been a favorite of police organizations and was named legislator of the year by California’s police chief’s organization and by the state’s 911 dispatcher organization. He promises a continued focus on health care, noting his successful effort prior to the pandemic to ensure the Kern county hospital remained open.

To win this election, Rudy Salas  will need to gain financially  on David Valadao.  As of mid-May, Valadao had $1.5 million available for the rest of the campaign.  Rudy Salas had $350,000.  They will both get plenty of outside support for what everyone sees as a close race.  Without a Republican incumbent, a Democrat would be expected to win this district by 10 points.  The website 538, so far, is projecting Rudy Salas to win by a very small margin.  Donate to help Rudy Salas actually win.  Projections are not enough.

The Toss up congressional races

In Political Note #483 supporting Adam Gray of CA 13, I reported on the closest toss ups.  The most recent 538 website projections are:

            Jahana Hayes (Political Note #454) of CT 05 ahead by .4

            Matt Cartwright (Political Note #469) of PA 08 ahead by .2

            Rudy Salas (Political Note #484) of CA 22 ahead by .2

            Elaine Slotkin (Political Note #378) of MI 07 ahead by .2

            Marcy Kaptur (Political Note #430) of OH 09 ahead by .1

            Jared Golden (Political Note #460) of ME 02 behind by .3

            Francis Conole (Political Note #477) of NY 22 behind by .4

Here are the rest of 538’s Toss ups

  1. NH 01 R+1 Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas (Political Note #429) v 2020 Candidate Matt Mowers. Projection Pappas to defeat Mowers 50.9 – 49.1 (+1.8) D Hold
  2. VA 07 D+2 Incumbent Democrat Abigail Spanberger (Political Note #438) v County Supervisor Yesli Vega. Projection: Spanberger to defeat Vega 50.8 – 49.2 (+1.6) D Hold
  3. NY 03 D+4 County Legislator Joshua Lafazan (538 Projected Primary Winner) v Developer George Santos. Projection: Lafazan defeats Santos 50.7 – 49.3 (+1.4) D Hold
  4. NV 03 D+2 Incumbent Democrat Susie Lee (Political Note #356) v Attorney April Becker. Projection: Lee to defeat Becker 49 – 48 (+1) D Hold
  5. IL 17 (D+4) TV Meteorologist Eric Sorensen v 2020 Nominee Esther Joy King. Projection: Sorensen to lose to King 50.7-49.3 (-1.4) R Flip
  6. MD 06 R+1 Incumbent Democrat David Trone (Political Note #466) v State Delegate Neil Parrot. Projection: Trone to lose to Parrot 49.2 – 47.7 (-1.5) R flip
  7. CA 27 D+8 Ex Candidate Christy Smith (Political Note #422) v Incumbent Mike Garcia. Projection:  Smith loses to Garcia 50.9-49.1 (-2) R Hold

Every one of these fourteen candidates needs resources.  Everyone one of these races are genuinely toss ups.  These races will be won by turnout, by effective campaigning, and the national generic orientation toward which party should control congress.  Resources to these individual campaigns are crucial.  So are resources for the national efforts.  You help the country by donating to Democrats. You can learn more about each candidate by checking out the appropriate Len’s Political note.  You can also learn about the candidates by checking out their websites.  Each candidate’s website also has a donation button.  Use it.

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