July 24th , 2026 Len’s Political Note #826 Kathy Castor Florida 14
2026 General Election
This was supposed to be easy. Florida 14 was a +12 Democratic Tampa Bay area district. In 2024, Kathy Castor won her election by 15.3 points.
After serving for four years on the Hillsborough County Commission, Kathy Castor was elected to Congress for the first time in 2006 to represent what was then Florida 11. Governor Ron DeSantis’s and his obedient legislature’s gerrymander have turned Florida 14 into a +11 Republican district. Described differently, some prognosticators would call the revised Florida 14 a “Lean Republican” district.
Kathy Castor and her family are familiar to the people of Tampa and St. Petersburg. Her dad was a county judge. Her mom, she had a career. After being elected to the state senate and serving for sixteen years, she ran for State Education Commissioner and won. Among her accomplishments in her eight years as Commissioner was to involve Florida in early childhood education and to develop a health insurance program for low-income children. In 1994, she was appointed President of the Tampa based University of South Florida.
Kathy Castor has been a fixture in Congress. Her predecessor left his safe Democratic district to run for Governor and lost to Charlie Crist when he was a Republican. Having completed four years as a County Commissioner, in 2006, Kathy Castor ran for this open Democratic seat and defeated four other candidates in the primary while she achieved a majority of the vote.
She currently serves as a member of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and China and has served as Chair of the Select Committee on the Climate Crisis. She is the ranking member of the Energy Subcommittee of the Committee of Energy and Commerce. In that role Kathy Castorproposed prohibiting energy companies from using rate-payer funds for lobbying. During her tenure, she has been an active supporter of gun safety and of Head Start, of public safety and of children.
2026 could have been a particularly good year. She is co-chair of the Congressional Soccer Caucus. Not only is she paying attention to the World Cup, the World Cup people might even pay attention to her.
On the whole, the people Kathy Castor wants to pay attention to her, in addition to her constituents, are in the Republican party. She truly believes in making bi-partisan efforts. This may be a good climate for soccer afficionados, but it is terrible for committed bi-partisans. With their teeny majority in the House, Republicans would dominate if they could only control their far-right wing. The Democratic leadership is clear. All Democrats are a “no” vote. And mostly, that is what happens.
Kathy Castor has little patience with corruption. She and her fellow Florida representative Darren Soto (also endangered by gerrymandering) have urged the Inspector General for the US Department of Health and Human Services to investigate. Ten million dollars of Medicaid funds were diverted to the Hope Florida Foundation and other entities. Members of Congress have called this fraud. In pointing their fingers to this diversion, they were particularly conscious of the Republican reduction in what Kathy Castor called a “cruel proposal to kick millions of Americans off Medicaid.” They claimed taxpayer funds were being diverted to a partisan political action committee.
During a recent Congressional election, Kathy Castor was enmeshed in a small problem of her own. Intent on encouraging people to vote, she planned to film early voting, whether for a political ad, I don’t know. Greeted with the question “are you here to vote? She said no. And was told no candidate can be where she was during voting. Eventually, the threats of arrests and jail time disappeared, but Kathy Castor is an old pro. It is a mistake she should not have made.
Kathy Castor was is now 59 years old, Republicans may have hoped she would retire from a district that was now gerrymandered toward the Republicans. She has her own brand of stubbornness and stayed in the race. Bu June 30, she had raised a total of $2 million and had $1.5 million left for additional campaigning.
Two Republicans seem competitive. Kevin Steele, a Florida State Rep who had started a run for the state’s Chief Financial Officer, changed direction and was running for reelection. With redistricting, he changed direction once again and is running for Florida 14. He has raised a total of nearly $2.6 million dollars of which he has $1.6 million available to spend. He set the tone for his campaign with statements like the following: “Kathy Castor has sat comfortably in Washington while Tampa families have struggled with rising costs, shrinking opportunities, and failed leadership. She voted for the reckless policies that drove up prices, hurt small businesses, weakened our economy, and made the American Dream harder to reach….”
Mike Beltran, a one term Florida State Rep originally from New York City and a graduate of New York’s competitive Stuyvesant High School, the University of Pennsylvania, and Harvard Law School has gotten himself embroiled in a dispute with one of Trump’s favorite influencers Laura Loomis. She claimed that Beltran had voted in New York City. He explained that the Mike Beltran who had voted in New York City was his father. And he sued her for defamation. She explained to him and the world that since Mike Beltran was a public figure, he would need to prove she acted with actual malice. Notwithstanding the dispute, Beltran leads Steele for the nomination in the only poll we have. He has raised $2.1 million, spend very little so far, and has $2 million available to continue his campaign first against Kevin Steele and then, if he wins, against Kathy Castor.
Do not rule Kathy Castor out. Even with the +11 Republican lean, even with a substantial change in who is in her district, she could win reelection. Furthermore, we finally have a poll. Kathy Castor Leads each of her prospective opponents by 7 or 8 points. DONATE to her campaign. Help make the election reflect those polls.
Keep her in Congress.
Other Florida Statewide Races
US Senate: Former National Security Advisor Alexander Vindman, whose testimony against Trump precipitated the first impeachment trial, was even with the appointed Senator Ashley Moody in the only June poll. Each candidate led by a small margin in one of the two polls in May.
The Republican incumbent, the far-right Ashley Moody was the Florida Attorney General when she was appointed to fill the position after Marco Rubio was appointed Secretary of State. She has raised a total of 10.8 million dollars and had $8.4 million available for her campaign on June 30. Alexander Vindman’s has raised a total of $14.6 million for this campaign and has $7.3 million cash on hand for campaigning.
Alexander Vindman can win this toss up race. DONATE to his campaign and be part of a shift in the Florida electorate.
Governor. Former Republican Congressman David Jolly, now a Democrat is running for the open Governor seat because Ron DeSantis is term limited. Polls are reasonably encouraging. In May, the Republican favorite, Byron Donalds led in a Republican funded poll by 8 points. In another poll in May, David Jolly led by 4 points. In June, in another Republican funded poll, Donalds led by 5. The financial race, however, is not nearly as close. Byron donalds has built a warchest of $66 million dollars in his official campaign. David Jolly has $2 million. DONATE to David Jolly’s campaign. If he can raise money, this will be a contest.
Attorney General: Democratic State Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez is running against Republican corruption and against the appointed incumbent Republican Attorney General James Uthmeier. He was the probable inventor of Alligator Alcatraz. Money is an issue. On March 15, Rodriguez had $500,000 to Uthmeier’s $7.4 million. DONATE to Jose Javier Rodriguez’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note
A Toss Up Congressional Race
Florida 23 Jared Moskowitz keeps winning despite warnings of his vulnerability. He is a graduate of Marjory Stoneham Douglas High school, the site of one of the most remembered school shootings. In the state legislature, the shooting dominated his tenure. He was even able to get the legislature to pass a modest gun safety law.
Jared Moskowitz was appointed by DeSantis as Director of Emergency Management and won rave reviews. Choosing to run for Congress – in 2022 and 2024, Jared Moskowitz was elected to each term with a 5 point majority. In the financial race, he has raised $2.7 million and had available $1.9 million on June 30. Three Republicans have raised funds in the same ball park. Jared Moskowitz was leading Miami-Dade County Mayor David Singer by 10 points in a poll in May. He was leading State Rep George Moraitis by only 2 points at that same time. Jared Moskowitz does have a primary opponent. He leads that opponent by double digits in polls. DONATE to Jared Moskowitz. Help him keep that lead.
A Leans Republican Florida race
Florida 22 Democrat Pia Dandiya came home to run for Congress. Because her schooling (Harvard BA) and her career were away, you might. be impressed by her, but not expect her to be electable in Florida. As an undergraduate, she volunteered in schools in India, after graduating, she taught and then, at age 28, opened and ran a successful high school in Harlem. A White House Fellow, she went on to lead public initiatives for Apple.
Newly created, this south-Florida +4 Republican district runs across the state. Lois Frankel left to follow a fair number of her constituents. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, who lives in a corner of the District, sought a more Democratic district. Both Congresswomen left Pia Dandiya as the likely Democratic nominee. The Republicans may not be new to the district, but they seem to be new to politics. They include three businessmen, two realtors, a financial advisor, a marketing executive, a self-funding doctor, and a university Chancellor.
Pia Dandiya has done reasonably well raising money. Pia Dandiya has raised $2.1 million and, on June 30, had $1.4 million available to spend. Four of the Republicans have raised money in that range. DONATE to Pia Dandiya. Keep her in the game. There are no polls.
Additional Races worth considering
Florida 07. Democrat Bale Dalton, the former Chief of Staff for NASA is challenging scandal ridden incumbent Cory Mills. DONATE to Bale Dalton’s campaign.
Florida 09 Democratic incumbent Darren Soto will probably face Businessman Tomas Chalifoux who he beat handily in 2024. It will be harder in with the revised district now leading Republican. DONATE to Darren Soto’s campaign.
Florida 13. Democratic retired Brigadier General and former deputy head of CENTCOM Leela Gray is challenging Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, whose story is only slightly more plausible than expelled Congressman George Santos. DONATE to Leela Gray’s campaign.
Florida 26. Democratic Attorney Nicole Locklin is challenging incumbent Republican and a leader of the Cuban-American community who has defended the detention center known as Alligator Alcatraz Mario Diaz-Balart. DONATE to Nicole Locklin’s campaign.
