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July 24th, 2022       Political Note #486 Michelle Vallejo TX 15

2022                          General Election

Michelle Vallejo won the closest primary in Texas; maybe in the country.  When the recount was finished, she won by 35 votes.  TX 15 seat was open because, after redistricting, the Democratic incumbent, Vicente Gonzalez left for a more Democratic district – TX 34. =

You would think that Michelle Vallejo’s chances aren’t great under those circumstances.  Sure enough.  The website 538 projects that she will lose 50.2 – 46.6; by 3.6 points. That’s a lean R.  Without the squeaker primary and the departure of Vicente, 538 called the district EVEN.

Michelle Vallejo has real strengths. People in the district know her.  She is from Mission, Texas – an hour’s drive along the Texas Mexico border northwest of Brownsville.  For years her family has owned and run a weekly flea market that attracts large numbers of people.  They describe themselves and their business as neighbors, not as flea marketers.  Michelle Vallejo was closely connected to the flea market – managing it because her mother suffered from multiple sclerosis and died young, at 46.

Michelle Vallejo stood out in her home town of Mission, in its Veterans’ Memorial High School. She was on student council, performing in school theater, on the debate team, and participated in the National Hispanic Institute. She was such a stand out so that she left for the Ivy League and the big city.

Michelle Vallejo got her BA from Columbia and might have gone to law school or business school or something else that Ivy League graduates do.  But she felt an obligation to her mother, her father, and the flea market.  She settled in as part of the larger community. She helped found a chapter of New Leaders Council STX Frontera focused on equity and helped found an annual conference in San Antonio – Hustle + Socialize – to support businesswomen and entrepreneurs.

When Vicente Gonzalez left for TX 34, LUPE Votes asked the people of the district for advice about who to recommend.  Describing the kind of candidate they needed, LUPE Votes decried their past experience. “[W]e have been let down by establishment democrats.  …. [T}hey give up and run, leaving us vulnerable to racist republicans…..we won’t abandon each other.”  Having received advice, they recommended Michelle Vallejo for the nomination.

As with most things in life, the Democratic nomination was not automatic, not for LUPE Votes or for Michelle Vallejo.  She came in second out of five candidates in the primary, but held the first-place finisher to less than 50% — requiring a run-off.

The first-place finisher was Attorney Ruben Ramirez.  If he had been the nominee, I would have been happy to write about him.  A graduate of the University of Texas – Rio Grande Valley, he taught high school chemistry and physics for five years.  He left teaching for the army and deployment to Afghanistan where he earned a battlefield promotion and a Bronze Star.  When he returned from the war, he enrolled in the Houston Law Center to get a law degree. Practicing law, he was a capable and ambitious young man. It is just that he lost the primary by 35 votes to a well-organized and charismatic young woman.

Michelle Vellejo has a Republican to defeat. Monica De La Cruz Hernandez won the Republican nomination by getting 57% of the vote in the first round of the primary. Support from national Republicans made that victory probable.  She looked like a winner to the Republicans. In 2020, she lost to Vicente Gonzalez by only 2.9 points.

De La Cruz is a graduate of the University of Texas – San Antonio.  She is a businesswoman and reports that she owns three businesses.  She is a State Farm Insurance Agent and earned Donald Trump’s endorsement.  In her website, she promises her support for the right to life and for “true” freedom of speech.  Like many Trump endorsees, she has a whiff of scandal about her. She is in the midst of a divorce from her husband who has alleged that De La Cruz physically abused his daughter from a previous marriage.

Democrat Michelle Vallejo is a bright, energetic candidate who chose to remain in the San Antonio Valley when she had a route out.  She is a voice for her community and deserves our support. She can make up the 3.6 percent deficit as momentum shifts to the Democrats in the 2022 mid-term elections.  Help Michelle Vallego be part of the momentum shift.

These Political Notes are written in order to advise readers about where to put their money in order to make a difference.  More and more I have relied on the Website 538 for that information.  Here is a list of the middle group of what 538 describes as the 50 closest House races.  Invest in these 16 races and you could make a difference in who controls the House.   Democrats always listed first

Republican Held Seats

  1. NM 02. City Councilor Gabe Vasquez (Political Note #423) is behind Native American realtor and Incumbent Yvette Herrell by 2.6% R Hold

Newly Created Seats because of population growth

  1. NC 13 Moderate State Senator Wiley Nickel is behind Trump endorsee, former college football player and law student Bo Hines by 3.8% (new seat)
  2. CO 08. Pediatrician and State Rep Yadira Caraveo is behind State Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer by 3.9% (new seat)

Democratic Held Seats

  1. KS 03 Native American business consultant Incumbent Sharice Davids (Political Note #412) is behind former State Party Chair Amanda Atkins by 2.4% R Flip
  2. NY 18 County Executive, businessman and veteran Pat Ryan (Political Note #485) is behind Assemblyman Colin Schmitt by 2.6% R Flip
  3. PA 17 University Institute Director Chris Deluzio leads former Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer by 2.7% D Hold
  4. NV 01 Former Academic and incumbent Dina Titus leads Financial Planner Mark Robertson by 2.9% D Hold
  5. VA 02 Retired Naval Commander and incumbent Elaine Luria is behind former Navy helicopter pilot, nurse practitioner, and State Senator Jen Kiggans by 2.9% R Flip
  6. NV 04 African American, former State Senate Majority Leader and Incumbent Steve Horsford leads of Businessman Sam Peters by 3% D Hold
  7. TX 15 Narrow primary winner, flea market manager, and local Latina leader Michelle Vallejo is behind realtor and former candidate Monica De La Cruz by 3.2% R Flip
  8. PA 07 Attorney and Incumbent Susan Wild is behind CEO and former candidate Lisa Scheller by 3.2% R Flip
  9. RI 02 State Treasurer and Probable nominee Seth Magaziner leads former Mayor (of my hometown) Allan Fung by 3.4% D Hold
  10. NJ 07. Human Rights leader and incumbent Tom Malinowski is behind former State Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean Jr. by 3.5% R Flip
  11. IL 06 Engineer, businessman, and incumbent Sean Casten leads Mayor Keith Pekau by 3.8% D Hold
  12. IN 01 Former salesman and Incumbent Frank Mrvan leads Pilot Jennifer-Ruth Green by 3.8% D Hold
  13. WA 08. Pediatrician and Incumbent Kim Schrier leads County Councilor Reagan Dunn by 3.8% D Hold

If these projections prove accurate, add six potential Republican flips  in this group of close races to the 2 potential Republican flips in the closest 16 races With that total and no other changes, Republicans would gain control of the House of Representatives since Democrats can’t afford to lose more than five seats.

Target the eight seats.  Target the two new seats created by population growth.  In fact, target all of the races.  These are all close races.  A Democrat currently projected to win by 3 points is as likely to lose as a Republican projected to win by 3 points.  You can make a difference in these races with regular donations and, when that works for you, by volunteering.

Next the final third of 538’s closest 50 races.

 

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