Political Note #483 Adam Gray California 13

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July 15th, 2022       Political Note #483 Assemblyman Adam Gray

2022                          General Election

Northern California has what golfers call a dog leg with the point of the bend facing Nevada. On a map of central California colored to reflect the character of the new Congress, imagine a series of north- south ribbons:

From left to right,

  • deep blue CA 19 along the coast,
  • deep blue CA 18 east of CA 19
  • light blue CA 13 in the middle
  • deep red CA 05 going north and deep red CA 20 going south
  • light red/pinkish CA 03 along the Nevada border
  • In the middle a CA 21 a deep blue button, holding it together perhaps

CA 13, the light blue middle ribbon is closely contested for 2022 between Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and Agrobusinessman John Duarte.

Adam Gray’s family owned and ran a dairy supply company.  That puts him right in the middle of this agricultural area.  Merced County’s largest companies include a produce packaging company, one of the country’s largest wineries, a large poultry farm, and a large cheese company. Adam Gray’s ex-wife, Cadee Condit, on the other hand, comes from a family with political history and worse.

Cadee Condit’s uncle Darrell was a ne’er do well who was in and out of jail throughout his life.  Her uncle Burl was a cop who got in trouble for buying nine guns from his department and saying he bought one. He also got in trouble for shooting his gun just for fun.  Her father was a Congressman who got into trouble.  Gary Condit represented California’s 18th Congressional District and was not just any conservative Democratic Member of Congress.

Gary Condit represented the 18th Congressional District for seven terms.  He had more than his 15 minutes of national fame when an intern with the Federal Bureau of Prisons disappeared in May 2001.  Condit was having an affair with Chandra Levy.  It took a year for the police to discover her remains.  Condit was never a suspect, so the police say.  His constituents suspected him of something.  If nothing else they thought there was an inconsistency between his strong pro-family politics and his affair with a woman 30 years younger than he was.  In 2002, he couldn’t get into the primary run off.  Fifteen years later, despite having admitted to an affair to the police, Condit, long past any personal political involvement,  denied he had ever had an affair with Levy.

In 2001, Candee Condit and her brother Chad were working for California Governor Gray Davis.  Chad was an assistant on agriculture; Candee a special assistant overseeing day to day activities.  After Gray Davis urged Condit to speak more frankly about his relationship with Chandra Levy, they both quit, speaking about their disdain for Davis’s lack of loyalty.

Adam Gray graduated from Golden Valley High School,  He took courses at Merced College before completing his Bachelor’s degree at the University of Santa Barbara in 2000.  He interned in the state legislature then ran and was elected to the State Assembly, His major effort in the state assembly was a visible and vociferous fight over water.  He opposed the State Water Board’s plan to double the amount of water it would take from the three rivers that passed through the Central Valley. He brought fifteen hundred people (by his count) to the State House to protest. That fight continues.

If he were elected to Congress, Adam Gray would bring the same local orientation to his new role. He would have a similar focus on water and agriculture. He would probably extend his crime fighting interest to a national one.  He is particularly proud that a program he supported arrested 50 gang members in California.  His hard line extends to opposing early prison release and sentence reduction.  Every other issue of his is about providing resources to the Valley. His online banner headline says he is the only candidate with a track record of delivering for the Valley.  Things could be worse.

John Duarte, his Republican opponent, is worse. He owns Duarte Nursery, Inc and grows trees.  In 2017, he paid over $1 million as a civil penalty and for mitigation of damage the firm did in disturbing 22 acres of streams and wetlands.  The Justice Department made a particular point that this was not a complaint about “normal plowing,” but for plowing over protected wetlands. =

Adam Gray’s opponent in no conservationist.  That may not matter to some constituents of CA 13.  It may be more important to them that John Duarte is the fourth generation of his family to grow almonds, pistachios, and grapes on land in the Central Valley.  Adam Gray has to make his case that keeping the water needed for farming in the Central Valley is both something he is experienced doing and something that can be done responsibly and legally.

Help Adam Gray win this election.  For his sake and for ours.  There was a moment, on the Fourth of July, no less, when this appeared to be the closest Congressional race in the country.  538 reported the race as tied.  There is, however, almost daily change in how 538 sees each race.  By July 7, 538 projected Adam Gray to win 52.4-47.6 (+4.8).  That is still close.  Adam Gray still needs help in winning this election.

As I continue to write about Democratic candidates for Congress who need support, I feel some urgency, To retain a majority, Democrats need to win the races that currently tilt blue, win the races that are toss ups, and win the races that tilt red.  There is now a bit of Democratic momentum.  The momentum can build if Democrats focus on Republican plans to raise taxes on the poor and the middle class, to impose a national abortion ban, and to create a United States in the image of Iraq – a nation of gun owners all ready to fight each other.  That momentum will build if Democrats also focus on sustaining prosperity, containing inflation, rebuilding our infrastructure, and creating conditions that sustain our families.  If that momentum builds, 538 and we will find that districts that tilt blue now will become more solidly blue, districts that are toss ups now will tilt blue, and districts that tilt red now will become toss ups.

You can help fuel that momentum by supporting Adam Gray.  His race has moved in a few days from toss up to tilt blue. That can happen to more races.

The Seven closest toss up candidates

Click website links, then click on the donate button or the volunteer button or both.  Help us win the seats.  As always, I focus and bold the Democrat and discuss whether the Democrat is winning or not. Projections are as of July 7. 

  1. ME 02 R+10 Incumbent Jared Golden (Political Note #406) v ex Congressman Bruce Poliquin. Projections Golden behind Poliquin 48.3-48.2 (-.1) R Flip Recent Polls: May 13 Golden +7
  2. OH 09 R+8 Incumbent Marcy Kaptur (Political Note #430) v War Vet JR Majewski. Projection: Kaptur defeats Majewski 48.8-48.7 (+.1) D Hold Recent Polls: June 30 Kaptur +5
  3. NY 22 D+2 Navy Veteran Francis Conole (Political Note #477) v ex Navy Officer Brandon Williams. Projection: Conole behind Williams 48.3 – 48.1 (-.2) R Hold
  4. CA 22 D+10 Assemblyman Rudy Salas v Incumbent David Valadao. Projection: Salas defeats Valadao 50.2-49.8 (+.4) D Flip
  5. MI 07 D+4 Incumbent Elissa Slotkin (Political Note #378) v State Sen Tom Barrett. Projection Slotkin defeats Barrett 50.2-49.8 (+.4) D Hold June 16 Slotkin -3
  6. PA 08 R+8 Incumbent Matt Cartwright (Political Note #469) v Ex Candidate Jim Bognet. Projection: Cartwright beats Bognet 50.2-49.8 (+.4) D Hold
  7. CT 05 D+3 Incumbent Jahana Hayes (Political Note #454) v ex State Senator George Logan. Projection: Hayes defeats Logan 50.3-49.7 (+.6) D Hold

For the 7 closest races identified on July 7, five are projected to be Democratic wins, two are projected to be Republican wins. There is one Democratic flip and one Republican flip.  This is not great, but if we are optimistic about where the race is going, it is a good start.

 

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