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In 2016, Hillary Clinton thought she had a firewall of states that would ensure her election. The largest of those six states were Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin She was so confident in these states that, until the very end when problems became visible, she had not advertised in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Democrats should not take these states for granted again. Wisconsin, with just under 5.9 million people is the country’s 20th largest state. It has 8 Members of Congress and, of course, two Senators. The seven smallest states have slightly fewer people than Wisconsin. They have 7 Members of Congress and fourteen Senators.
In the past several years Wisconsin has been a swing state.
- In 2020, Wisconsin elected Democratic Supreme Court Justice Jill Karofsky 55.2 – 44.7.
- In 2019, Wisconsin elected Republican Supreme Court Justice Brian Hagedorn 50.2 – 49.7
- In 2018, Wisconsin elected Democrat Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate by 55-45.
- In 2018, Wisconsin elected Democrat Tony Evers Governor by a point.
- In 2018, Wisconsin elected Democrat Josh Kaul Attorney General by a half-point.
- In 2018, Wisconsin elected Democrat Doug LaFollette Secretary of State by 5 points
- In 2018, Wisconsin elected Democrat Sarah Godlewski Treasurer by 4 points.
- In 2018, Wisconsin elected Democratic Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Dallett 55.7 – 44.2
- In 2016 Wisconsin elected Republican Ron Johnson to the US Senate by 50.2 to 46.9
- In 2014 Wisconsin elected Republican Scott Walker Governor by 5 points
- In 2014 Wisconsin elected Republican Brad Schimel Attorney General by 6 points
- In 2014 Wisconsin elected Democrat Doug LaFollette Secretary of State by 4 points
- In 2014 Wisconsin elected Republican Matt Adamczyk State Treasurer by 4 points.
In 2022, Democratic Governor Tony Evers (See Political Note #366), Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul (See Political Note #367), Democratic Secretary of State Doug LaFollette, and Republican US Senator Ron Johnson are up for election. Like Mandela Barnes, Treasurer Godlewski is running for the US Senate.
July 12th, 2022 Political Note #463 Mandela Barnes Wisconsin Senator
2022 General Election
In previous years, I urged readers to support a candidate before the primary when his or her primary victory was clear. This year, when control of the House and Senate are so uncertain, I am urging readers to support a candidate before the primary when victory is probable — to create momentum toward the general election.
Based on the website 538’s projection, Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes will probably be the Democratic nominee for Wisconsin’s US Senate seat. There was a period of time when Milwaukee Bucks basketball team executive Alex Lasry gained enough ground so that I held off on this Note. The other candidates for the Democratic nomination were not as close. A Lasry victory now seems less likely. What’s more, he doesn’t perform as well as other Democrats in the most recent general election poll.
Wisconsin’s primary is on August 9 – three months before the general election. It is July 12 now. Let’s start building toward the election. Giving Mandela Barnes money now helps create momentum for the general election. Mandela Barnes is the probable candidate.
Thirty-five year old Mandela Barnes was born in Milwaukee. His dad, Jesse, belonged to the United Auto Workers. His mom taught school. When he was born, his parents named him Jesse Mandela Barnes and called him Mandela. When he was a toddler, his parents changed his name legally to J. Mandela Barnes.
Mandela Barnes finally got his BA from Alabama A & M in 2020, something that should have happened and he occasionally claimed did happen in 2008. To get his degree, he needed to change an Incomplete grade in one course to a credited grade. Notwithstanding the course complication, Mandela Barnes learned some things in Alabama. He ran for student office and got clobbered. He discovered and was inspired by Barack Obama.
In 2012, formerly the executive director of an interfaith coalition and described in the press as a community organizer, Mandela Barnes announced a run for the Wisconsin state assembly. He defeated a long-time legislator, Jason Field, focusing on Fields’ support for a state voucher program that moved 20,000 kids from public schools to private and religious schools and on Fields’ opposition to a cap on payday loan interest rates.
Four years later, Mandela Barnes tried to do it again. He primaried long time, combative moderate (is that an oxymoron?) incumbent Lena Taylor for her State Senate seat. He promised to fight for the public schools and against gun violence. She had supported the voucher program and charter schools. She also supported bills allowing people to carry concealed weapons. This time, Mandela Barnes was defeated soundly by the incumbent, getting only 40% of the vote.
In 2018, undaunted by his 2016 loss (One commentator had said Barnes would be out of politics if he lost in 2016) and working for the Innovation Exchange making policy proposals to the state legislature , Mandela Barnes announced a run for Lt. Governor. He was fortunate in his opponent. Businessman Kurt Kober did not make waves. Before he dropped out of the race, Madison gadfly Rob Slamka made Madison Barnes resemble a member of the establishment. And before he dropped out of the race, Madison African American activist William Henry Davis III made Mandela Barnes seem like a moderate.
At an informal Democratic convention, a straw poll gave Mandela Barnes 80% of the vote for Lt. Governor. In the primary, just in time for a Blue Wave election, he won with 68% of the vote. In Wisconsin, the party nominee for Lt. Governor nomination runs as a pair with the candidate for governor. Mandela Barnes paired with the Democrats’ candidate for Governor – Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers. They won by a point.
Unwilling to stay put, Mandela Barnes announced a run for the US Senate seat up for election in 2022. He began his campaign calling for the end of the filibuster. He blamed the filibuster for the pieces of Joe Biden’s agenda that did not go through. He didn’t blame the President. He didn’t blame fellow Democrats. He blamed big corporations and special interest groups. They have, he said, subverted elections.
He particularly pointed to Incumbent Ron Johnson. He criticized Johnson’s plan to turn over control of federal elections to the states. Mandela Barnes got criticized back and he answered:
- “I don’t support defunding the police,” he said. “But what I do support is investing just as heavily in community resources in the prevention of crime, investing in schools, good paying jobs, the things that keep communities safe to prevent crime from happening in the first place.”
- “I don’t support abolishing ICE [notwithstanding a t-shirt he once wore that said “abolish ICE.”], but I do fully support addressing the concerns and issues and challenges that people have so that we can have a fair, comprehensive immigration reform system that will create a pathway to citizenship, one that treats people with dignity, and one that prevents people from having to deal with traumas like family separation, and we can do this while keeping our border safe at the same time.”
- About the Senate, he said: “There’s a whole diversity of experience that’s missing from the United States Senate. There aren’t a lot of working-class people there…. it’s known as a millionaire’s club and as a very exclusive place to be. But that’s not American. And that’s why the Senate has failed to respond to the most pressing and urgent needs of Americans.”
The incumbent he hopes to defeat? Ron Johnson, is a pretty good example of what is wrong with the Republican party. He does not believe that climate change is a problem for the US or the world. He acknowledged that Covid was a nasty disease, but was skeptical about whether vaccinations have done any good and attributed thousands of deaths to vaccinations. Johnson suggested hydroxychloroquine as a Covid cure and thought that achieving herd immunity would be the solution. He was skeptical about the value of closing venues – arguing that thousands die from the “common flu” and we don’t shut down the economy.
Ron Johnson’s distasteful claims are not limited to the climate or Covid. In case we forget which party is the one with sympathy for pedophiles and those who support them, Johnson opposed the elimination of time limits for bringing law suits against perpetrators. He explained that even though he believes no punishment is sufficiently harsh for pedophiles, he saw no reason why employers like the Church or the Scouts should be sued. His skepticism about the 2020 election is no surprise. What is a surprise is that a fellow Republican reported that Johnson knew the election was legitimate but claimed that it was fraudulent out of fear of a Republican political backlash. Unsurprisingly, Johnson denied that story.
Can Mandela Barnes compete with Ron Johnson? We will see the June 30 financials shortly. Through March 31, Johnson had raised $10.5 million. He has spent nearly $7 million attempting to establish an insurmountable lead. He began April with $3.5 million. Mandela Barnes, who has to continue his primary campaign to ensure that he is the one opposing Johnson, raised $4 million. He has spent $2.4 million, leaving him with $1.6 million on April 1.
If Johnson was trying to create insurmountable lead, he did not succeed. At the end of June. Johnson led Lasry by 3 points and trailed the other Democrats – Nelson by 1, Mandela Barnes and State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski by 2. Help Mandela Barnes finish the primary and win the general election.
Senate Crucial Senate Races
If Democrats are to keep control of the Senate, the clearest and simplest route is to reelect the four Senators below and elect the other three candidates. Based on projections from the website 538, these seven elections are close.
If Democrats win these seven elections, the Democratic majority will be 53-47 – enough to approve Presidential appointees to the courts and to various posts in the government. If Democrats win these seven elections and if the Democrats can retain the House (a tougher, but not impossible task), Joe Biden and the Democrats will be able to govern as they have been able to do only intermittently during the past year and a half.
Four of these Democratic candidates are projected to win election, one by a margin of only four tenths of a percent. Three of the Democratic candidates are projected to lose, one by a margin of only two tenths of a percent. Every one of the races is close enough so that support for the Democratic candidate is urgent and should be continuous through November.
Get out your wallets. Click on links to these candidates’ websites and then hit the donate button. Do it again in a week or a month. The 538 website will keep updating their projections. These are the recommendations now.
You can and should donate to other Democrats who might win. Below, I am listing just the seven. If you want to see the full panoply of candidates, look at the July 9 note for Michael Franken. If you do not still have that note, find it on the website for Len’s Political Notes https://lenspoliticalnotes.com
Join the crowd. Help Democrats win.
New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan (Political Note #359) is projected to defeat Retired Brigadier General Donald Bolduc (who 538 believes will be the Republican nominee) 50.9 – 46.6 (+4.3). Maggie Hassan moved to New Hampshire with her husband who taught at Phillips Exeter Academy and eventually became the school’s headmaster. She began her involvement in New Hampshire politics in order to make school life better for her son with severe multiple sclerosis and others like him. She was elected to the State Senate, elected Governor, and, in 2016, by .12% or 1,017 votes, was elected to the US Senate. Donald Bolduc served ten tours in Afghanistan suffering multiple injuries. He was one of 124 retired Generals and Admirals who released a letter claiming the Joe Biden stole the 2020 election. Recent Polls: 6/27 Hassan +9
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (Political Note #387) is projected to defeat Corporate COO Blake Masters 49.5-47.8 (+1.7). He and his twin were born in New Jersey, children of a paratrooper who became a local cop and West Orange’s first female cop. Both twins became naval aviators and both became astronauts for NASA. Mark’s second marriage, to Arizona Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, transformed his life. In 2011, six people were killed in an assassination attempt on her, leaving her with visible injuries. She retired from Congress and together they developed a gun safety organization. In 2018, he was elected to the US Senate 51.2 to 48.8 against the appointed incumbent. In 2022, the website 538 projects that he will run against Trump endorsee Blake Masters. After Masters took a class with and impressed billionaire conservative libertarian Peter Thiel, he was named COO of Theil’s Hedge Fund and President of Theil’s Foundation. Recent Polls: 6/27 Kelly +9 (v Masters)
Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (Political Note #365) is projected to defeat the former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt 48.3-47.5 (+.8). She is the daughter of a Mexican immigrant who became a figure in Nevada politics. Her father was head of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority for thirteen years. Except for Gonzaga Law School, she went to local schools. She clerked for a local judge and became chief of staff of the state governor. She met and married a member of Bill Clinton’s secret service, worked in Washington for two years, and returned. She was elected Attorney General by double digit margins in 2006 and 2010. When Harry Reid retired from the Senate, she was elected to replace him, defeating a Republican Congressman by 2.5 points and becoming the first Latina US Senator. Her 2022 opponent, Adam Laxalt, was elected Attorney General in 2014. He ran and lost a race for governor in 2018. In 2020, he co-chaired Trump’s campaign in Nevada. Falsely claiming fraud, he sought to overturn the results in Nevada. Recent Polls: 6/27 Cortez Masto +3
Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman (Political Note #433) is projected to defeat TV Doctor Mehmet Oz 48.7-48.3 (+.4). Six foot nine inches, with a biker style beard, Fetterman does not look like a conventional candidate. Progressive, he spent his post college years working for AmeriCorp in western Pennsylvania. He was elected mayor of Braddock a small, poor, majority Black town east of Pittsburgh after which he primaried and ousted the sitting Lt. Governor. He suffered a stroke in May and has been following doctor’s orders and resting. He can be expected to return to campaigning by fall or earlier. His opponent Mehmet Oz was endorsed by Trump and won his primary by 951 votes with a total vote of 419,999. He is a Muslim and promised to renounce his Turkish citizenship if he is elected. Critics say he is an advocate of pseudoscience, alternative medicine, faith healing, and the paranormal. He is a very wealthy man. Recent Polls: 6/19 Fetterman +4, +8. 6/13 +9
Georgia Senator The Reverend Raphael Warnock (Political Note #379) is projected to lose to Herschel Walker 49.3 to 49.1 (-.2). Raphael Warnock is an American success story. He is a Black American success story. Raised in public housing in Savanah, Georgia, his parents were Pentecostal preachers. His dad also restored and sold junked cars. Warnock was an outstanding student locally and at the Historically Black College in Atlanta – Morehouse. Next he earned Master’s and Doctorate degrees at Union Theological Seminary in New York. From early childhood, his ideal was Martin Luther King, Jr. Before he ran successfully for election to the Senate in 2020, he was the Senior Pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, the home church of Martin Luther King Sr and Martin Luther King Jr. His opponent is Herschel Walker, another kind of Black American success story. Walker was an outstanding football running back at the University of Georgia. He played professional football for a half dozen teams, was a member of a US Olympic bobsled team, and had other sports accomplishments, He has also been a businessman. Wikipedia reports that he has exaggerated his business successes. He received PPP loans which he later mocked. Recent Polls: 6.27 Warnock +4, +10. 6/16 EVEN
Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (Political Note #482) is projected to be the Democratic nominee for the US Senate. Unfortunately, 538 also projects that he will lose to Senator Ron Johnson by a 50.7-46.2 (-4.5) margin. Just as no one should feel comfortable with Maggie Hassan’s 4.6 margin in New Hampshire, Democrats should not feel despair about Johnson’s 4.5 margin here. Barnes was born in Milwaukee to a school teacher mom and a dad who was a member of the UAW. Like John Fetterman, he inserted himself into the Lt. Governor race and made a place for himself. He had been a state rep and then, after a loss in a state Senate primary, a policy analyst. He has approached the campaign blaming the filibuster on Democratic failures, not Joe Biden or any other individual. As I stated above, Ron Johnson is a pretty good example of what is wrong with the Republican party. He does not believe that climate change is a problem for the US or the world. He acknowledged that Covid was a nasty disease, but was skeptical about whether vaccinations have done any good and attributed thousands of deaths to vaccinations. After all, he saw Covid as no more lethal than the “common flu” and probably could be cured by hydroxychloroquine. Recent Polls: 6/20 Both Godlewski and Barnes +2
Former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (Political Note #434) is projected to lose to Congressman Ted Budd by a 51.2-46.6 (-4.6) margin. Just as we should be working on eliminating the Barnes/Johnson margin, we must work on eliminating the Beasley/Budd margin. Cheri Beasley was raised in Tennessee. Her mother taught at and eventually became the Dean of Austin Peay’s School of Nursing and Human Services. Cheri Beasely went north to college, to Rutgers, got her degree, and returned to Tennessee to work for a state agency investigating claims of discrimination. That work set her on a course for law school. She attended the University of Tennessee Law School and went to work as a public defender in North Carolina. From 1999 on, she was a North Carolina judge – District Court, Appeals Court, and state Supreme Court. She knows more than most about close elections. Appointed Chief Justice, she ran for the position when her term was up and lost – by 401 votes. Her opponent, Ted Budd, is endorsed by Trump. That his dad’s business is called the Budd Group is a clue that it was not a mom and pop operation. Maintenance contracts, Lawn service contracts, seeds, and something called AgriBioTech. That last went bankrupt costing farmers millions. Still Ted Budd campaigns reminiscing about his rural roots. Recent Polls: 7/1 Beasley -3 6/19 -3 6/12 +4
There you are. Support the Seven. Win these close races so that Democrats have a workable majority in the Senate.
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