Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
Before I write about a mistake of mine, I will comment on a mistake made by the DCCC and a mistake made by a few Democratic Senate and Governor candidates.
Regarding the DCCC:
Led by the Sean Patrick Maloney (NY 18), Chair of the DCCC, the campaign arm of Congressional Democrats decided against providing support for Democrats in special elections. Three special election Democratic losses could be attributed to that decision: TX 06, TX 34, and NE 01. .
We now live with a narrative that expects Democrats to lose the House of Representatives. The narrative would be different if Democrats won all three of those special elections with DCCC support.
Regarding the Senate and Governorshiips
A few Democratic incumbents have spent money in order to gain extreme and presumably weaker right-wing opponents. That’s a mistake. That scheme can lead to electing the right wing Republican or the less right wing Republican who has been made to seem like a moderate. That scheme can also lead to an erosion of trust in the Democratic candidate or in the election itself. The Republicans have generated enough distrust of elections.
July 9, 2022 Political Note #481 Michael Franken Iowa US Senator
2022 General Election
Here’s my mistake. I was wrong about the Iowa Senate race. I dismissed Admiral Mike Franken because he had done poorly in the 2020 US Senate race. Instead, I endorsed Abby Finkenauer who was not reelected to Congress in 2020.
Mike Franken learned from his 2020 experience. For 2022, he began early, raised money, and created a narrative for himself. Abby Finkenauer learned less from her 2020 loss. She focused her campaign on Chuck Grassley, emphasized her youth and his age, which everyone in Iowa was aware of anyhow, created problems for herself about getting on the ballot, and did not persuade the voters in the Democratic primary that she had strengths beyond her youth. Michael Franken, whose candidacy I had dismissed, earned the nomination by a 55-40 vote.
There is some subtlety to Mike Franken, who is a former Vice-Admiral of the Navy. He is capable of telling you that he is the right age to be a Senator without telling you directly. And he is the right age. He is 64. Not 33, like Abby Finekenauer. Not 88, like Chuck Grassley.
Mike Franken is capable of telling you that he really is from Iowa. He does that with angry reactions to those who describe him as an interloper. That, he says, disparages his service to the country. He spent 39 years in the Navy serving the country and has learned a lot about the rest of the world. He has, he insists, never stopped being an Iowan.
Mike Franken is the ninth of a family with nine children, born in Lebanon (Lebanon, Iowa, of course), the son of a blacksmith who owned a repair shop and a school teacher. From the blacksmith he became familiar with working with his hands. As a. youth, he worked a lathe, welded, and repaired for his father, was a hired farmhand, and worked for three years in a slaughterhouse. From the schoolteacher he got an appreciation of a life of service.
Mike Franken went to the nearby, northwest Iowa Methodist Morningside College intending to become a doctor. One of his older brothers persuaded him to “join the navy and see the world.” So persuaded and, to the displeasure of his mother, he left home, Morningside College, and his meatpacking job for a ROTC scholarship and the University of Nebraska.
In exchange for the scholarship, Mike Franken made a commitment to the Navy for a few years – a commitment that turned into thirty-nine years of increasingly important roles in the Navy. He was the first commander of the US Winston Churchill. That was just right for Mike Franken, who joined the International Churchill Society and has been on its Board of Directors for at least 13 years. He continued on to command the combined joint task force for the Horn of Africa and became the Africa Command’s deputy for military operations. He also served in Washington. He was the first military officer to be a legislative fellow with Senator Ted Kennedy. For three years he provided regular reports to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
The Horn of Africa and Washington DC are some distance from Sioux County, Iowa. Mike Franken brings a world of experience to the campaign as well as comfort with issues central to Iowa’s life. Some issues are particular to Iowa such as agriculture. Others are issues we all deal with right now like the radical Supreme Court. Mike Franken listens carefully to farmers and makes welcome suggestions about policy. He is cautious about the Senate’s best next step in response to the current Supreme Court.
Mike Franken is clear about his political views, including the hot button ones. He is pro-union, says they provide an important service to us all. He is definite about gun safety and speaks about the care the military takes when it allows soldiers and sailors to purchase guns when they leave the service. He supports abortion rights, the right of woman to make their own decisions about their own health care.
Mike Franken is critical of Chuck Grassley’s unwillingness to acknowledge that Joe Biden won the presidency. He allows outside critics their skepticism when Grassley insists he knew nothing about Donald Trump’s plans to use him to reject the counting of certain states’ ballots in case Mike Pence was not available. Put more baldly, Mike Pence’s imagined unavailability might have been because he had been hanged by Trump supporters for refusing to do what Trump assumed Grassley would do – reject consideration of electoral college ballots from some states.
Mike Franken is a candidate worth investing in. Chuck Grassley is a Senator worth removing. Support Mike Franken in his quest.
Senate Races Around the Country
The website 538 says the odds make it likely that Republicans will gain control of the House and are slightly in favor of the Republicans gaining control of the Senate. If you review all of their specific projections, they anticipate Republicans will flip the Georgia seat, but Democrats will flip the Pennsylvania seat. That would leave us with a Democratic Senate.
We need a Democratic Senate even if Democrats lose the House. We need more than the current 50-50 Democratic majority. The Senate approves judges and other presidential appointments. We need a Democratic President who can govern. The 538 website has projected primary winners and well as general election winners. I use their projections below. When we don’t already know who the nominees are in states were primaries, I use 538’s projections for primary winners, too.
Open your wallets, click on candidates’ websites where you can donate, get out your postcards. Volunteer in any way you can. Win all the dark green seats below and Democrats would have a 53-47 majority. Protect Hassan (NH), Kelly (AZ), and Cortez Masto (NV). Help Warnock (GA) retain his seat despite 538’s projection. Help Fetterman (PA) flip that Republican seat. Barnes (WI) is likely to be the Democratic nominee. Help him flip a second Republican seat. And help Beasley (NC) flip a third. If you help fund these seven candidates, you could make a difference for the country.
You could help protect the less endangered Murray (WA) and Bennet (CO). And you could support the slimmer chances for Ryan (OH), Demings (FL), Franken (IA), and Kunce (MO) to win. That’s OK. Support them. These projections are not permanent. There is a reason that 538 updates and changes its projections. Events change likely outcomes. Nevertheless, my advice is to focus first on the seven Senate races we need to win.
Consider the color coding.
Donate. Go to work. You and others can make a difference
Go ahead. Donate if you want. Do something helpful. You and others might make a difference
Be cautious. It is possible your time and energy and money are better spent elsewhere
These races will take care of themselves.
Hawaii Incumbent Brian Schatz to defeat State Rep Bob McDermott 64 – 31.4 (+32.6). The numbers here and the projected Republican primary winner are in this case and in all cases below, from the 538 website.
Maryland Incumbent Chris Van Hollen to defeat Entrepreneur James Tarantin 63.4 – 34.6 (+28.8)
Vermont Congressman Peter Welch to defeat ex US Attorney Christina Welch 60.2 – 33.9 (+26.3)
California Incumbent Alex Padilla to defeat Attorney Mark Meuser 61.6 – 38.4 (+23.8)
New York Incumbent Chuck Schumer to defeat Businessman Joe Pinion 59.2 – 39.4 (+19.8)
Oregon Incumbent Ron Wyden to defeat Insurance Agent Jo Rae Perkins 55.6 – 35.8 (+19.8)
Illinois Incumbent Tammy Duckworth to defeat Attorney Kathy Salvi 56.9 – 39.8 (+17.1)
Connecticut Incumbent Richard Blumenthal to defeat House Minority Leader Themis Klarides 56.7 – 41.5 (+15.2) Hold
Washington Incumbent Patty Murray (Political Note #464) to defeat Veterans’ Advocate Tiffany Smiley 56 – 44 (+12) Hold
Colorado Incumbent Michael Bennet (Political Note #457) to defeat Businessman Joe O’Dea 53 – 43.2 (+10.2) Hold
New Hampshire Incumbent Maggie Hassan (Political Note #359) to defeat Ret. Brig. General Donald Bolduc 51.1 – 46.4 (+4.7) Hold
Arizona Incumbent Mark Kelly (Political Note #387) to defeat Corporate COO Blake Masters 49.8 – 46.9 (+2.9) Hold
Nevada Incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (Political Note #365) to defeat Ex State Attorney General Adam Laxalt 48.3 – 47.5 (+.8) Hold
Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman (Political Note #433) to defeat TV Doctor Mehmet Oz 48.6 – 48.4 (+.2) Flip a Republican seat
Georgia Incumbent Raphael Warnock (Political Note #379) and Ex Football Player Herschel Walker at 49.2 each. (0) 538 Projects Walker to win 52 times out of 100 and flip this Democratic seat
Wisconsin Lt Governor Mandela Barnes (Political Note #482) behind Incumbent Ron Johnson 50.8 – 46.1 (-4.7) Republican hold
North Carolina Ex Chief Justice of the state supreme court Cheri Beasley (Political Note #434) behind Congressman Ted Budd 51.5 – 46.2 (-5.3) Republican hold
Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan (Political Note #392) behind Author JD Vance 53.8 – 43.2 (-10.6) Republicans hold
Florida Congresswoman Val Demings (Political Note #400) behind Incumbent Marc Rubio 54.7 – 42.4 (-12.3) Republicans hold
Missouri Anti-corporate activist Lance Kunce (Political Note #458) behind Ex- Governor Eric Greitens 54.2 – 40.3 (-13.9) Republican hold
Utah Ex CIA officer Evan McMullin (Political Note #427) to lose to Incumbent Mike Lee 53.7 – 33.4 (-20.3)
Iowa Retired Vice Admiral Mike Franken (Political Note #481) to lose to Incumbent Chuck Grassley. 60.7 – 39.3 (-21.4)
Alaska Academic Edgar Blatchford to lose to Incumbent Lisa Murkowski 38.9 – 25 (-13.9)*
Kentucky Activist Charles Booker (Political Note #408) to lose to Incumbent Rand Paul 62.5 – 37.5 (-25)
Kansas Pastor Mark Holland to lose to Incumbent Jerry Moran 61.1 – 35 (-26.1)
South Carolina State Rep Krystle Matthews to lose to Incumbent Tim Scott. 62.3 – 34.9 (-27.4)
Indiana Mayor Thomas McDermott (Political Note #420) to lose to Incumbent Todd Young 62.5 – 34.1 (-28.4)
Alabama Pastor Will Boyd to lose to Ex Senate Chief of Staff Katie Boyd 63.4 – 32.9 (-30.5)
Oklahoma B Ex Congresswoman Kendra Horn to Congressman Markwayne Mullin. 64.1 – 31.7 (-32.4)
Arkansas Realtor Natalie James to lose to Incumbent John Boozman 66.5 – 29.1 (-37.4)
Louisiana Pilot Luke Mixon to lose to Incumbent John N Kennedy. 60.8 – 20.4. (-40.3)
Idaho Youth Development Director David Roth to lose to Incumbent Mike Crapo 67.1 – 26.1. (-41.0)
South Dakota Attorney Brian Bengs to lose to Incumbent John Thune 71.4 – 28.6. (-42.8)
Oklahoma A Cybersecurity Specialist Madison Horn to lose to Incumbent James Lankford 69.8 – 26 (-43.8)
North Dakota Academic Kristina Christianson to lose to Incumbent John Hoeven 74.8 – 25.2. (-49.6)
*Because Alaska has ranked voting for the top four multi-party primary, calculating the probable winner is less accurate than other projections.
