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New Mexico, like all states, has two US Senators. Both are Democrats. Neither is up for election in 2022. New Mexico has three members of Congress – 2 Democrats and one Republican. After redistricting, the website 538 says the Republican district is now D+4. There is a real possibility that New Mexico will have three Democratic Members of Congress.
New Mexico’s Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, and Commissioner of Public Lands are all Democrats. You can say that New Mexico is a Democratic State – like Massachusetts or Vermont. Of course, Massachusetts and Vermont have Republican governors. And New Mexico’s last governor was a Republican. Could New Mexico’s next governor be a Republican?
070622 Political Note #480 Michelle Lujan Grisham New Mexico Governor
2022 General Election
One writer claims that there are 35 million descendants of the travelers on the Mayflower that arrived in Plymouth in 1620. That analyst lists a few: Marilyn Monroe, Clint Eastwood, Alec Baldwin, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Bing Crosby. Santa Fe is older than Plymouth. It was founded ten years before the Mayflower landed, making it the second oldest city in the United States. The conquistador Juan de Onate established this new capital of what we can think of as northern Mexico. And, of course, there were indigenous peoples long before the Spanish. One indigenous group lived in what is now downtown Santa Fe 1300 years ago.
Michelle Lujan Grisham is a political descendent of Juan de Onate. She is the current governor of New Mexico and a member of the thirteenth generation of her family living in New Mexico. In a way, thirteenth generation makes her a piker. Thirteen generations would not bring her back to 1610. At four generations a century, thirteen generations could bring Michelle Lujan Grisham’s family connection to New Mexico back to the end of the seventeenth century. Her ancestors were in New Mexico before it became part of the United States in the first half of the 19th century, before there was a United States as a result of the American Revolution at the end of the 18th century. Her traceable ancestors might have been contemporaries of the Massachusetts preacher Cotton Mather; may be not contemporaries of his father Increase Mather. Not such a piker after all.
Michelle Lujan Grisham’s father was a dentist. He worked at his profession well past his 80th birthday. During the years after her father was born, the Lujan family had more politicians than dentists. The politicians included a State Supreme Court Justice, a Republican mayor of Santa Fe nominated to be governor, a Republican Congressman who became Secretary of the Interior under GHW Bush, a Democratic Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, and a Democratic Congressman who was recently elected US Senator.
Michelle Lujan was born in Los Alamos, home of the Manhattan Project where the atomic bomb was developed. She went to a private Catholic High School in Santa Fe and to the University of New Mexico. She married, worked as a technical writer, and went to law school at the same university. She served as the Director of the state’s Aging and Long-term Services Department under three governors, a position which was transitioned into Secretary of Health under Governor Richardson. In 2008, she ran for congress and lost in the primary to Martin Heinrich, now a US Senator. She took a detour, was elected and served as a county commissioner. In 2012, when Heinrich ran for the Senate, she was elected to his seat in Congress. In Congress, she chaired the Hispanic caucus and was reelected in 2014 and 2016. She ran for Governor in 2018 and won.
As governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, perhaps anticipating the end of Roe v Wade, led an effort to repeal New Mexico’s law that criminalized abortions. She also led an effort to legalize the use of recreational marijuana. Both of those efforts succeeded. Her third major legislative achievement as governor was passage of an energy transition act to move the state to the use of renewable resources rather than coal and natural gas. Implementation will be a challenge.
The magazine Rolling Stone described Michelle Lujan Grisham as ready for the coronavirus, “or at least as ready as a governor can be for a once-in-several generations pandemic…”. When four cases were confirmed, she declared a statewide health emergency. She arranged for testing early and reopened the state early when the number of cases went down. She emphasized the importance of wearing masks to avoid having to shut down the state again.
Michelle Lujan Grisham has had a sufficiently successful term as governor to think she should get reelected. Scandals could get in the way. One scandal seems implausible. A former campaign staffer, James Hallinan, claimed she intentionally spilled water on his crotch and then grabbed his crotch. The campaign paid him off twice, totaling $150,000. Though $150,000 is a lot of money, the story still seems unlikely. A believable scandal is the claim that she violated the state’s public records law by using an encrypted message app set to delete automatically. Less scandalous, was the purchase of $6,500 worth of groceries used. According to Michelle Lujan Grisham, the groceries were for food during late staff meetings.
Michelle Lujan Grisham will be facing Mark Ronchetti, a telegenic TV weatherman. Ronchetti comments about one of his advertisements: “Our new ad takes on the Governor’s condescending attack ad – she thinks she’s smarter than all of us. I’ll never be a governor who thinks I’m better than you. I’ll always be a governor who will fight for you because my family experiences exactly what you do.”
Ronchetti did not have the same experience as those he wants to lure to his side. He was born in Shelbourne, VT where the climate is different from Albuquerque’s. Anti-abortion, pro-2nd amendment, he promises to keep New Mexicans safe by giving the police every tool they need.
Ronchetti’s most important promise might be that he would never think he was better than the people of New Mexico. Ten percent of the state’s population is foreign born. Another 9% have a parent who is foreign born. Most of these people are Latino. It is just possible that New Mexicans whose connection to the United States goes back, at most, one generation, might consider Michelle Lujan Grisham’s frequent description of her multi-generation forebears as demeaning in some way.
While Michelle Lujan Grisham works on making the conversation about her successful first term in office rather than about scandals or ancestors, we can help her get her word out. At the beginning of the year, Michelle Lujan Grisham had $2.5 million available for the campaign – more than double all of the Republican candidates combined. By the time Ronchetti had won the nomination, he had raised more than $2 million. Help Michelle Lujan Grisham talk about abortion and women’s rights, the need for gun safety, and a responsible border policy. (The Republican may claim that Joe Biden has an open border policy, but it ain’t so. Tragically, we know that more than 50 people died recently, attempting to get to the United States in the back box of a semi-trailer. People don’t hide in trailers to get into a country that has an open border policy.) Michelle Lujan Grisham is a pro. If she can avoid complacency and get enough financial help, she will be reelected.
Governors throughout the country
Let’s look at where it is advantageous to invest your money to achieve as many Democratic Governors as possible around the country. I use information from the 538 website and their projections for the 2022 gubernatorial elections. These projections are regularly updated and not fixed in stone. Events, mistakes, disclosures, and the resources you and others make available to candidates can make those projections change. The projections change because the probable outcomes change.
Consider the color coding.
Donate. Go to work. You and others can make a difference
Go ahead. Donate. Do something helpful. You and others might make a difference
Be cautious. It is possible your time and energy and money are better spent elsewhere
Open your wallets, get out your postcards.
Hawaii Lt. Governor Josh Green to defeat City Councilwoman Heidi Tsuneyoshi 60.5 – 35.1 (+25.4)
Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healy to defeat ex State Rep Geoffrey Diehl 59.9 – 38.4 (+21.5)
New York Incumbent Kathy Hochul to defeat Congressman Lee Zeldin 56.7 – 40.0 (+16.7)
Rhode Island Incumbent Dan McKee to defeat Businesswoman Ashley Kalus 55.3 – 40.6 (+14.7)
Colorado Incumbent Jared Polis to defeat Regent Heidi Ganahi 52.9 – 39.9 (+13.0)
Maryland State Comptroller Peter Franchot to defeat State Commerce Secretary Kelly Schultz 54.8 – 41.9 (+12.9)
Michigan Incumbent Christine Whitmer (Political Note #381) to defeat Planning Commissioner Ryan Kelley 54.8 – 42.2 (+12.6)
Connecticut Incumbent Ned Lamont to defeat Businessman Bob Stefanowski 52.8 – 44 (+8.8)
Minnesota Incumbent Tim Walz (Political Note #479) to defeat ex State Senator Scott Jensen 51.2 – 42.6 (+8.6)
New Mexico Incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham (Political Note #480) to defeat TV Meteorologist Mark Ronchetti 51.6 – 46 (+5.6)
Maine Incumbent Janet Mills (Political Note #407 to defeat Ex Governor. Paul LePage 51.4 – 46.4 (+5.0)
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (Political Note #426)
to defeat State Senator Doug Mastriano 51.1 – 46.7 (+4.4)
Oregon State House Speaker Tina Kotek (Political Note #478)
to defeat House Minority Leader Christine Drazan 46.3 – 43.5 (+2.8)
Wisconsin Incumbent Tony Evers (Political Note #366) to defeat ex Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. 49 – 46.3 (+2.7)
Nevada Incumbent Steve Sisolak (Political Note #414) to defeat County Sheriff Joe Lombardo 47.5 – 46 (+1.5)
Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (Political Note #402) to lose to ex TV Anchor Kari Lake 49.7 – 48.7 (-1.0)
Kansas Incumbent Laura Kelly (Political Note #358) to lose to Attorney General Derek Schmidt 49.3 – 48 (-1.3)
Alaska Ex State Rep Les Gara to lose to Incumbent Mike Dunleavy 32.8 – 28.4 – (ex Gov Bill Walker 24.1) (-3.8)*
Georgia National Figure Stacey Abrams (Political Note #432). to lose to Incumbent Brian Kemp 52.2 – 45.3 (-7.8)
Florida Congressman Charlie Crist (Political Note #463)
to lose to Incumbent Ron DeSantis 54.5 – 42.1 (-13.4)
Texas Ex Congressman Beto O’Rourke (Political Note #431)
to lose to Incumbent Greg Abbott 54.9 – 41 (-13.9)
Vermont Activist Brenda Siegel to lose to Incumbent Phil Scott 55.8 – 39.8 (-16)
Ohio Mayor Nan Whaley to lose to Incumbent Mike DeWine 57.1 – 38.7 (-18.4)
Iowa Ex Statewide Candidate Deidre DeJear to lose to Incumbent Kim Reynolds 58.9 – 39.2 (-19.7)
South Carolina Ex Congressman Joe Cunningham (Political Note #199)
to lose to Incumbent Henry McMaster 58.6 – 37.4 (-21.2)
Oklahoma Public Inst Sec’y Joy Hofmeister (Political Note #449)
to lose to Incumbent Kevin Stitt 58.6 – 33.4 (-25.2)
Nebraska State Senator Carol Blood to lose to University Regent Jim Pillen 61.6 – 35.7 (-25.9)
New Hampshire State Senator Tom Sherman to lose to Incumbent Governor Chris Sununu 64.2 – 35.8 (-28.4)
Arkansas Engineer Chris Jones (Political Note #421) to lose to ex White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders 63.9 – 34.9 (-29)
Alabama Educator Yolanda Flowers to lose to Incumbent Kay Ivey 64.3 – 31.4 (-32.9)
South Dakota House Min Leader Jamie Smith (Political Note #450)
to lose to Incumbent Kristi Noem 68.3 – 31.7 (-36.6)
Wyoming Retired Staff Bur of Land Management Theresa Livingston to lose to Incumbent Mark Gordon. 69.1 – 30.9 (-38.2)
*Because Alaska has a ranked choice runoff for the top four vote getters, these numbers are not predictable of the eventual winner in the same way as the others listed.
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