Political Note #469 Matt Cartwright Pennsylvania 08

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A list of 8 vulnerable Democratic incumbents includes Matt Cartwright.

AZ 02 R+15 Tom O’Halleran. (Political Note #389) Arizona’s redistricting was an 11 point swing from R+6 making a district tough for a Democrat to win

ME 02. R+10 Jared Golden (Political Note #406) Has won twice in a likely Republican district that got 1 point friendlier to Democrats

WI 03. R+9 Brad Pfaff (Political Note #418) Open Democratic seat will be a challenge for the state senator even though there was no change in the lean.

PA 06 R+8 Matt Cartwright   Nudged down from R+9 by a point (Political Note #469)

OH 09 R+8 Marcy Kaptur. (Political Note #430) Ohio’s redistricting, if the state Supreme Court does not find a way to change it, is a 24 point swing form D+16.  That’s a big leap.

VA 02 R+6 Elaine Luria. (Political Note #388) Virginia’s redistricting made a district were a Republican would have an edge

NJ 07 R+3 Tom Malinowski. (Political Note #363) Opposed by ex-minority leader and son of former governor Tom Kean Considered fifth most vulnerable Member of Congress by Roll Call. Redistricting dropped him 7 points from D+4.

IA 02 R+2 Cindy Axne. (Political Note #428) Considered 2nd most vulnerable Member of Congress by Roll Call. No change in lean from the past

May 18th, 2022         Political Note #469 Matt Cartwright PA 08

2022                          General Election

Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district is in northeast Pennsylvania.  Its largest city is Scranton.  Is Scranton Joe Biden country?  Or is it Trump country? In 2020 Donald Trump got 51.7% of the vote in PA 08.  Matt Cartwright got 51.8%.  Scranton’s congressional district is Matt Cartwright country.  Can he keep it?

Matt Cartwright was born at the Ohio end of Pennsylvania – Erie, which is as much a declining industrial city as Scranton, but with three times as many people. His parents were among the prosperous.  His dad, the former CEO of Canada GE, worked for GE around the country and the world. Matt Cartwright’s high school was Upper Canada College, a Toronto boarding school.

Matt Cartwright, a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Hamilton College in upstate New York, returned to Pennsylvania for law school.  While he was completing his law degree at the University of Pennsylvania, Marion Munley completed hers at nearby Temple.  After some time in London, they came home to Scranton, Marion’s home, where they both joined her dad’s law firm.  In memory of the firm’s founder, its website still lists her father, who died in 2015.  Of the other eleven attorneys listed on the firm’s website, six are Munleys.  One of the six is Marion Munley, still practicing at the family firm, Munley Law.

Matt Cartwright distinguished himself on television.  From 2005 to 2011, he did a segment on local television called The Law and You.   After redistricting which put Scranton in the middle of what is now PA 08, Matt Cartwright, better known and more trusted than local politicians because of the television show, ran for Congress.  He defeated the deeply conservative incumbent Democrat by 14 points and his Republican opponent by 20.

Matt Cartwright built a relationship with his constituents that has allowed him to withstand political change.  Elected in 2012 advocating for the Affordable Care Act, he spent the year after it passed helping constituents find ways to access it.  As health care continued to be an issue, he created a panel of more than twenty leading local figures to identify weaknesses in the Affordable Care Act.   Some of the panelists were donors to his campaign, for which he received criticism. Some were Republicans for which he did not get criticism. He had figured out how not to be all or nothing, how to listen to his constituents about important issues while making sure that the group he was listening to was loyal enough to be helpful rather than destructive.

A little more progressive than his constituents, perhaps, Matt Cartwright has supported some gun safety policies – opposing the sale of assault rifles, opposing legal immunity for gun manufacturers.  He found middle ground by opposing discrimination against members of the LGBT community so long as clergy could refuse to perform same sex marriages.  He supported the DREAMers also opposed a bill that would have withdrawn funds from municipalities that would not detain undocumented immigrants.  He was subsequently willing to limit access to some municipal grants to cities that did not detain those immigrants.

 By 2016, PA 17 (which would become PA 08 after the state Supreme Court ended the state’s Republican gerrymander) was ripe for Donald Trump.  Trump carried the district by 10 points. Matt Cartwright carried the district by 8 and by 9 in 2018.  It got closer in 2020.  Trump carried PA 08 by 5 points; Matt Cartwright was re-elected by 4.

Republicans feel they have a good reason to target Matt Cartwright in 2022. Help him dodge Republican bullets. Help him with the resources he needs to get reelected.

 

THIRTY-FOUR CLOSE CONGRESSIONAL RACES

The previous Political Note #468 on behalf of Ashley Ehasz listed the sixteen EVEN, +1 and +2 races. Below are eighteen +3 and +4 races.  Keep thinking about how to make donations.  The House of Representatives will be largely won or lost in these 34 districts which, based on 538 calculations, are Toss-Ups.  Give a modest amount to every one of them? Choose one or a few and give a lot?

Of the eighteen below, 8 are incumbent Democrats and 2 are open Democratic seats.  Each incumbent loss or loss of an open Democratic seat brings us closer to losing the House.  Of the eighteen, 6 are Republican incumbents and one is a open Republican seats.  Defeating an incumbent Republican or winning an open Republican seat either offsets a Democratic loss or expands the narrow Democratic majority.  Finally, one seat is newly created because of population growth. Among this group of seats, Democrats have 10 chances to lose a seat, 7 chances to flip one, and one chance to gain or lose a new seat.

Democratic incumbent

Open Democratic seat

Republican incumbent

Open Republican seat

Open new seat 

  1. CO 08 R+3 Democratic Pediatrician Yadira Caraveo (Political Note #461) v one of 4 or 5 Republicans
  2. CT 05 D+3 Incumbent Democrat Jahana Hayes (Political Note #454) v ex State Senator George Logan
  3. CT 02 D+3 Incumbent Democrat Joe Courtney v State Rep Mike France
  4. MI 03 D+3 Democratic Attorney  Hillary Scholten (Political note #447) v Incumbent Republican Peter Meijer
  5. OR 05 D+3 Attorney Jamie McLeod -Skinner (who appears to have won the May 17 primary) v Former Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer
  6. KS 03 R+3 Incumbent Democrat Sharice Davids (Political Note #412) v Republican official Amanda Adkins
  7. NE 02 R+3 State Senator Tony Vargas (Political Note #453) v Incumbent Republican Don Bacon
  8. NJ 07 R+3 Incumbent Democrat Tom Malinowski (Political Note #363) v scion of historic NJ family and ex State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr
  9. NC 13 R+3. State Senator Wally Nickel former football player, law student, and Trump endorsee Bo Hines.
  10. OH 01 R+3 Democratic City Councilor Greg Landsman (Political Note #452) v incumbent Republican Steve Chabot
  11. GA 02 D+4 Incumbent Democrat Sanford Bishop (Political Note #455) v either army veteran Jeremy Hunt or Real Estate Attorney Chris West
  12. NV 04 D+4 Incumbent Democrat Dina Titus (Political Note #444) v either AF veteran and owner of an insurance firm Sam Peters or Assemblywoman Annie Black
  13. NY 19 D+4 A Democratic candidate who has not yet emerged after recent redistricting and after the incumbent was appointed Lt. Governor v Republican County Executive Marc Molinaro
  14. CA 40 R+4 Physician Asif Mahmood (Political Note #456) v Incumbent Republican Young Kim
  15. FL 28 R+4 Democratic candidate who has not yet emerged after recent redistricting v incumbent Carlos Gimenez
  16. IA 01 R+4 Democratic State Rep and Law Professor Christina Bohannan (Political Note #411) v Incumbent Republican Marianette Miller-Meeks
  17. MI 07. R+4 Inc Elissa Slotkin (Political Note #378) v State Senator and former State Treasury Official Tom Barrett
  18. PA 07 R+4 Incumbent Democrat Susan Wild (Political Note #394) v Republican CEO and ex County Executive Lisa Scheller

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