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Begin with Pennsylvania’s politics.
Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by 81,660 votes in 2020. He carried four other large states by less than 100,000 votes – Arizona (10,457), Georgia (12,670), and Wisconsin (20,682). Democrats will be tested again in Pennsylvania in 2022. Statewide and in Congressional Districts.
US Senate
Democratic Lt. Governor John Fetterman (Political Note #433), whose Bernie-supporting authenticity attracts some Trump supporters, has defeated Congressman Conor Lamp. Turkish TV Doctor Mehmet Oz has a tiny lead which may well vanish over David McCormick, a hedge fund head, West Point and Princeton educated son of a university president, former Army Ranger, and almost moderate. Donate to Fetterman.
Governor
Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro (Political Note #426) cleared the field for the primary and is the Democratic nominee for Governor. He will run against Douglas Mastriano, a Trump-loving, January 6 attendee who is a State Senator and a retiree from the army as a Colonel. Mastriano has quoted from QAnon, rejects being labeled a far-right Christian nationalist. He has a plan to restore freedoms people have lost in the name of fighting Covid. Donate to Shapiro.
Competitive Congressional races
PA 01 EVEN Retired Army Pilot Ashley Ehasz (Political Note #467) is the Democratic candidate against incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. Donate to Ehasz.
PA 17 D+1 Academic Administrator, former Naval officer, and cyber technology expert Chris Deluzio will face former County Commissioner Republican Jeremy Shaffer. Donate to Deluzio.
PA 07 R+4 Incumbent Democrat Susan Wild (Political Note #394) will probably face businesswoman, former county commissioner, and 2020 opponent Lisa Scheller who is leading in the count. Donate to Wild.
PA 08 R+8 Incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright (Political Note #70 and upcoming Political Note #469) will be opposed by former Trump political appointee and former opponent Jim Bognet. Donate to Cartwright
PA 06 (D+9) Incumbent Democrat Chrissy Houlihan (Political Note #83) will face County Commission Chair Guy Ciarrocchi. Donate to Houlihan
PA 10 (R+9) Attorney Shamaine Daniels is leading in the vote for the Democratic nomination to defeat Incumbent Republican Scott Perry, one of the most active Congressmen in the attempt to keep Donald Trump in office notwithstanding the actual votes in 2020. Donate to Daniels
May 18th, 2022 Political Note #468 Ashley Ehasz PA 01
2022 General Election
Is PA 01 truly an EVEN district? Maybe not. Republican Brian Fitzpatrick has represented the district since 2018. More to the point, Brian’s brother Mike elected to the similar previous PA 08 from 2004 to 2016, with some time off for good behavior. He lost in 2006, did not run against in 2008, won in 2010 and kept winning until replaced by Brian Fitzpatrick in 2016. Mike Fitzpatrick died in 2020 from the cancer that had plagued him since 2008.
Like his brother, Brian Fitzpatrick, a former FBI supervisor and Special Assistant US Attorney, has been a moderate Republican, one of the few remaining. In the FBI, he was the national supervisor of the Public Corruption Unit. He served internationally for the FBI and as a special US Attorney during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Fitzpatrick’s perspective as a moderate and a bipartisan politician was particularly visible on issues of redistricting. He was the only Pennsylvania Republican Member of Congress who refused to participate in the lawsuit against the new map in 2018. He argued against any politicians being involved in drawing congressional maps
On other issues, he has described manmade climate change as a serious issue; he has sought to expand background checks for the purchase of guns and to restrict access to assault weapons. He opposed replacing the Affordable Care Act with an ersatz Republican health care proposal and voted for the American Dream Act to support a path to citizenship for children brought to the US by undocumented parents. He even supports same sex marriage.
The election of Donald Trump as President created a new problem for Brian Fitzpatrick. He sponsored a narcotics trafficking bill that Trump signed and voted for the enormous tax cut. For the most part, though, he was out of tune with the President – supporting condemnation of Trump telling Democratic Members born elsewhere to go “home” to fix their former countries, supported the proposed bi-partisan commission to investigate January 6. He argued for censure for Trump and did not support impeachment.
What’s not to like for a Democrat? Brian Fitzpatrick is not progressive enough? He is not. His problem, aside from his support for tax cuts for the wealthy, his unwilling to impeach President Trump, and his opposition to abortion is with what has happened to the Republican Party.
Despite Brian Fitzpatrick’s long-time opposition to public corruption and his opposition to various individual instances of Trump corrupting American politics, he will not confront Trump directly. He remains a member of a Party that included 147 Members of Congress who voted to disregard the votes of Americans in the 2020 presidential election. If Republicans elect enough members of congress to gain a majority, Brian Fitzpatrick will join with extreme members of his party to elect that handmaiden of the extreme right, Kevin McCarthy, as Speaker. Every committee will be run by a far-right member of Congress, by members who have accepted Donald Trump’s big lie that he won the 2020 election.
We should not reelect Brian Fitzpatrick to Congress because we need every Democrat we can get. Ashley Ehasz is the Democrat running for PA 01. She is tough enough to have cleared the field.
What kind of name is Ehasz, anyhow? Her name is Hungarian. Ashley Ehasz’s grandparents immigrated to the United States. Their story was not one of immigration success. Her website tells us about a family with substance abuse, mental health, and financial challenges. Her campaign video begins by telling us that when she was eating cold cereal regularly with water because there was no milk, if she had been told she would grow up to fly Apache helicopters, she would have told the teller to “fuck off.”
Despite her family problems, Ashley Ehasz was disciplined enough to succeed in school; she was congenial enough to have friendships. Both were important for her first major step. She was accepted to West Point. Her friends raised money for her to be able to afford the expenses of this tuition-free school.
Her friends’ investment and our investment in her was worth it. She had an outstanding career at West Point. When she graduated she was recognized for the quality of her work in law classes and for her study of US war crimes trials. In her thesis, she found that unlawful command and political interference, and undertrained DOD legal staff were obstacles to achieving justice.
As for her experience in the military, she flew an Apache Longbow helicopter initially at Fort Bliss in Texas, subsequently in Kuwait and Iraq. In 2016, after leadership training, she became company commander of a maintenance troop – initially at Fort Riley, Kansas and then in south Korea.
Next was civilian life. With the support of the GI Bill and student loans, Ashley Ehasz went to Oxford. She became expert enough on Latin America to publish an academic paper for the Cornell International Affairs Review. But what does someone do with an M. Phil from Oxford and a need to make a living? Ashley Ehasz developed a little domestic policy experience working for a County Board of Commissioners. She sustained her international interests by working as a consultant for Deloitte and then as a staffer for the Council on Foreign Relations.
Ashley Ehasz announced for Congress in October, 2021. She attacked Brian Fitzpatrick for his opposition to abortion, an attack which has proved to be timely. Instead of attacking him for supporting the tax cut for the rich and not voting for impeachment, she attacked a strength. He may have supported immigration reform and the Affordable Care Act, but he was too slow.
Her view is that Buck’s County and Montgomery County needs someone who will work to get things passed. “In every part of the county, people are fed up with Washington. Growing up struggling in the area and serving my country in combat has prepared me to bring a new type of leadership and perspective to Washington that’s clearly missing. Families here in Bucks County need help, we need housing that’s affordable, better health care, and jobs that actually pay well.” Ashley Ehasz adds that the American Dream she believes in is out of reach for too many. She is angry that Buck’s County’s representative is not angry and forceful about the state of the country.
Invest in Ashley Ehasz. Her campaign needs the investment. Brian Fitzpatrick ended She does not have connections that donate big money. She is facing a man who does. Brian Fitzpatrick got 51% of the vote in 2018, 57% of the vote in 2020 and he entered April with nearly $2 million. Asley Ehasz had less than $100,000. She needs enough campaign money to convince the people of PA 01 that she is capable of reducing Brian Fitzpatrick’s vote by 7 or 8%. Joe Biden won the district, after all, with more than 52% of the vote. Invest in her. She is a candidate worth investing in.
THIRTY-FOUR CLOSE CONGRESSIONAL RACES
Think about how you want to donate your money. The House of Representatives will be largely won or lost in these 34 districts which 538* calculates to be Toss-Ups. Do you want to give a little bit (by your standards) to each? $10 to each? $100 to each? Or do you want to put your money in one basket? $350 to one candidate? $3,500 to one candidate? $3,500 each to several candidates?
*All calculations below, except for the Alaska race which is based on an initial poll, are the 538 calculations.
The list of 34 races is too many to consider at once. Below are the EVEN races, the +1 races and the +2 races. The next piece about Matt Cartwright running for re-election to PA 08 will include candidates in +3 and +4 districts.
Among the sixteen matchups mentioned below are eight incumbent Democrats and three open Democratic seats. Each incumbent loss or loss of an open Democratic seat brings us closer to losing the House.
Also below are 3 Republican incumbents and two open Republican seats. Defeating an incumbent Republican or winning an open Republican seat either offsets a Democratic loss or expands our narrow majority. Among this group of seats, Democrats have 11 chances to lose a seat and 5 chances to win one.
Democratic incumbent
Open Democratic seat
Republican incumbent
Open Republican seat
- AK AL EVEN Al Gross (Political Note #462) will be one of four finalists chosen in a ranked choice run off. Of the almost 50 candidates for the special election to fill the vacancy, the other three leaders in a recent poll were Republicans Sara Palin, Nick Begich III, and a socialist who had changed his name to Santa Claus. Donate to Al Gross.
- PA 01 EVEN Retired Army Pilot Ashley Ehasz (Political Note #467) is the Democratic candidate against incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. Donate to Ashley Ehasz.
- WA 08 EVEN Incumbent Kim Schrier (Political Note #451) will be opposed by one of three Republicans Donate to Kim Schrier.
- AZ 04 D+1 Incumbent Greg Stanton (Political Note #467) will be opposed by either an ex Marine who owns a restaurant or a sports team executive who was the daughter of Mexican immigrants. Donate to Greg Stanton
- FL 27 D+1 Miami Commissioner Ken Russell is challenging incumbent Maria Salazar. Donate to Ken Russell
- MN 02 D+1 Incumbent Angie Craig (Political Note #355) will be opposed by former candidate Tyler Kistner. Donate to Angie Craig.
- NY 02 D+1 No credible Democrat has emerged yet after recent court-ordered redistricting revisions. Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino
- NY 03 D+1 County Legislator Josh Lafazin or PR Firm head Robert Zimmerman v Executive George Devolder-Santos
- PA 17 D+1 Academic Administrator, former Naval officer, and cyber technology expert Chris Deluzio will face former County Commissioner Republican Jeremy Shaffer. Donate to Chris Deluzio.
- MD 06 R+1 Incumbent David Trone (Political Note #466) will probably be opposed by previous candidate State Delegate Neil Parrot. Donate to David Trone
- MI 08 R+1. Incumbent Dan Kildee (Political Note #459) will be opposed by former Trump Homeland Security Official Paul Junge. Donate to Dan Kildee
- NV 03 D+2 Incumbent Susie Lee (Political Note #356) will probably be opposed by Las Vegas attorney April Becker. Donate to Susie Lee.
- NY 18 D+2 County Executive Pat Ryan v Assemblyman Colin Schmitt. Donate to Pat Ryan.
- NY 22 D+2 Attorney Josh Riley appears to be the leading Democratic candidate. He will be opposed by a Republican yet to emerge after the recent court ordered redistricting. Donate to Josh Riley.
- VA 07 D+2 Incumbent Abigail Spanberger (Political Note #438)will be opposed by one of four Republicans. Donate to Abigail Spanberger.
- IA 03 R+2. Incumbent Cindy Axne (Political Note #428) will probably be opposed by State Senator and former intelligence official Zach Nunn. Donate to Cindy Axne.
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