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Kathy Hochul. Antonio Delgardo. Mcallister
May 30th, 2022 Len’s Letter #54 New York Redistricting
2022 Primary and General Election
On April 1, 2022, acting upstate county trial judge Patrick Mcallister ruled that the New York legislature did not have the authority to draw district maps when the Independent Redistricting Commission failed to come to an agreement and even if it had the authority, the New York congressional districts, assembly districts, and state senate districts drawn by the legislature were unconstitutional gerrymandering.
On April 21, a New York State Appeals Court panel ruled, 3-2, the legislature did have the authority to draw district maps, but that the maps were unconstitutionally gerrymandered. They followed the advice of Fox News regular Sean Trende cited by the Republicans and not objected to by the Democrats. On April 27, the New York Court of Appeals (New York’s highest court) ruled, 4-3, that the legislature had violated an explicit state constitutional ban on gerrymandering for the State Senate and Congressional Districts.
The Court of Appeals returned the case to Patrick McAllister to sort out the details. McAllister delayed the primary dates for the state Senate and Congress and appointed Carnegie Mellon political scientist and postdoctoral fellow Jonathan Cervas as a Special Master to revise districts. Cervas said his map would create 8 competitive districts instead of 3. Slightly revised after a hearing, final district boundaries were announced on May 21.
No matter, but I initially counted 9 competitive districts. With the final revision, If I stretch it a bit after the final changes and continue to include NY 11 as competitive, I still count 9 districts. That leaves 3 safe Republican districts.
After redistricting was complete, Democrats found themselves with no candidates in some districts and with three intraparty contests between incumbents. Whether it was through individual candidate figuring out what worked for them or through party leadership, the Democrats responded quickly. Every competitive district has at legitimate Democratic contenders. The three intraparty contests are down to one.
Recriminations are not helpful. Democrats have to take a look at the situation and salvage what they can. They had anticipated 22 Democratic Members of Congress and 4 Republicans to replace a delegation of 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans. Can the Democrats elect more than 19 Members of Congress with this new map? Will Democrats find their ambitions have been reversed and will come out of the November election with fewer than 19 Members of Congress? Let’s look.
There are Districts where the Democrats can feel safe: (The changes from the legislative map; and the D+ or R+ figures are based on the Website 538’s calculations for a district without regard for who the candidate is.)
Safe seats for Democrats (14)
NY 05 Gregory Meeks: was redistricted by the New York legislature to be D+64, then was D+82 under the Special Master and is now D+62 after the Master made further revisions after a hearing.
NY 06 Grace Meng: was D+24, Then D+31 Still D+31
NY 07 Nydia Velazquez: was D+65, Then D+61 Now D+63
NY 08 Hakeem Jeffries: was D+55, Then D+49 Now D+52
NY 09 Yvette Clarke: was D+55, Then D+57 Now D+51
NY 13 Adriano Espaillat: was D+77, Then D+77 Still D+77
NY 14 Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez: was D+50, Then D+57 Still +57
NY 15 Ritchie Torres: was D+72, Then D+71 Still D+71
NY 16 Jamaal Bowman: was D+36, Then D+40. Still D+40
NY 20 Paul Tonko: was D+12, Then D+12 Now D+14
NY 25 Joseph Morelle: was D+15, Then D+13 Still D+13
NY 26 Brian Higgins: was D+20, Then D+16 Now D+18
NY10 OPEN: was D+52, then D+62 and now D+69. Incumbent Jerrold Nadler will not run in the new NY 10 that does not include midtown or the Upper West Side. He will run in NY 12 instead. NY 12 includes the Upper West Side and the Upper East Side. Many New York politicians have expressed interest in the new NY 10. Among those who have announced their candidacy are former mayor Bill De Blasio, NY 17 Incumbent Mondaire Jones, Assembly Member Yuh-Line Niou, and City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera. Others considering running include State Senators Brad Hoylman and Simcha Felder.
NY 12 Carolyn Maloney: was D+67, then D+68 and still D+68. Jerrold Nadler (NY 10) will run against her. She had $1 million to spend on April 1, Nadler had $850,000, and Suraj Patel (an insurgent in NY 12) had $500,000.
Safe seats for Republicans (3)
NY 21 Elise Stefanik: was R+23, now R+15
NY 23 Claudia Tenney: was R+26, now R+21
NY 24 Chris Jacobs: was R+25, now R+22
Competitive districts currently or formerly held by Democrats
NY 03 OPEN: was D+10, then D+1, now D+4. Incumbent Tom Suozzi is running for Governor. Leading the money race is Republican George Devolder-Santos, described by one analyst as formerly the leading director of a Ponzi scheme with $800,000. Democrats Josh Lafazin, a County Legislator and Robert Zimmermaneach began April with more than $700,000.
NY 04 OPEN: The district was D+8, then was D+10 and is still D+10. Incumbent Kathleen Rice retired. Democratic Former Town Supervisor Laura Gillen and Democratic Mayor Keith Corbett began April with $150,000 or more. Republican Cryptologist (a code breaker in the marines) Bill Staniford also had $150,000.
NY 17. OPEN District was D+10, now D+7. Incumbent Mondair Jones will run in NY 10. NY 18 Incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney (Political Note #448) will run here as will State Senator Alessandra Biaggi (Political Note #124). Maloney had $2 million on April 1. Jones had $2.9 million on April 1 which he will use for his run for NY 10. Biaggi reports she has $200,000. Republican State Assemblyman Michael Lawler has announced he would run as well.
NY 18 OPEN: District was D+3, then was D+2 and is now D+3. Incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney is running in NY 17. Democratic County Executive Pat Ryan will run here. He will need to raise money quickly. Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt had $500,000 available on April 1.
NY19 OPEN: The district was D+4; then was R+1 and still is R+1. Incumbent Democrat Antonio Delgado (Political Note #232) was appointed New York’s Lt. Governor. Republican County Executive Mark Molinaro had $730,000 on April 1. Attorney Josh Riley, once Al Franken’s lawyer, had $550,000 available on April 1 when he was considering running in a different district.
If Democrats hold all 5 of these seats, combined with the Solid Democratic seats, they will have 19 seats, the same number of Members as in the current Congress.
Competitive Seats currently or formerly held by Republicans
NY 02 The District was R+20, then was D+1, and now is R+6. Incumbent Andrew Garbarino had $1.2 million on April 1. Educator and Reserve Lt. Col Jackie Gordon (Political Note #266) is running for this seat. She had $300,000 available at the beginning of April,
NY 11 The District was D+7, then was R+5 and now is R+11. Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis had $2.3 million on April. Former Democratic Congressman in NY 11 Max Rose (Political Note #230) had $1.5 million. 18 points (from D+7 to R+11) is a huge swing, but if Max Rose has enough resources he could win this race.
NY 01 OPEN: The District was D+8. Then was D+10. Now it is R+5. Incumbent Lee Zeldin is running for Governor. Democratic County legislator Bridget Fleming is running for this seat. She had $400,000 to begin April with. Former County Commissioner, Republican Nick LaLota has $260,000 available.
NY 22 The District was D+13, was D+2 and is still D+2. OPEN: Incumbent John Katko announced his retirement, If things remain the same, 5 Democrats are running and 3 Republicans. The leading fund raiser among Democrats is veteran Francis Conole, with more than $350,000 on hand on April 1. The leading Republican, Mike Sigler, had less than $200,000.
If Democrats can avoid losing any of the currently Democratic seats and flip two of the four previously Republican seats, New York will have 21 Democrats in Congress – not quite the goal of 22, but not bad. That level of success would help Democrats retain control of Congress.
Give money and any other assistance to
NY 19 R+1 Josh Riley
NY 22 D+2 Francis Conole
NY 18 D+3 Pat Ryan
NY 03 D+4 Josh Lafazin or Robert Zimmerman, whoever wins the primary
NY 01 R+5 Bridget Fleming
NY 02 R+6 Jackie Gordon
NY 17 D+7 Sean Patrick Maloney or Allesandra Biaggi – whoever wins the primary
NY 04 D+10 – Laura Gillen or Keith Corbett – whoever wins the primary
NY 11 R+11 Max Rose
Democrats need to win eight of the nine competitive races to hold the Republicans to the three Congressional Districts that was intended by the legislature’s gerrymandering. It could happen. Only NY 11 was rated Likely Republican by Inside Elections. Only NY 02 was rated Lean Republican by Inside Elections. Inside Election’s Likely and Lean Democratic districts are part of the complication of Congressmen shifting seats. Every one of these seats should be treated as if they are toss ups. Donate money. Help these candidates. Help every one of the Democratic front runners. Of the three districts where there is no front runner choose your favorite or wait to see who wins the primary. But that’s late. Every one of these candidates needs money now.
I have organized the above list of districts and candidates to give money to in order of the district political lean. Start with the closest race. Every one is close enough to be competitive and every one is important if we are going to have a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.
New York’s Congressional situation is unique. So is the situation in each of several other states – several large states.
- Pennsylvania’s existing relatively evenly balanced districts statewide in an evenly balanced state is a product of a state supreme court action to redistrict the state in 2018.
- North Carolina’s relatively evenly balanced districts in an evenly balanced state is a product of state supreme court actions in 2020 and 2022 but is good for only one election year.
- Maryland’s return to one safe Republican seat plus a newly competitive seat is a product of a District Court ruling and negotiations between the term limited, popular Republican governor, Democratic legislators, and the Court.
- Ohio’s Supreme Court has rejected the Republican legislature’s proposals to change Ohio’s 12 Republican/four Democratic seats to 11 Republican, 2 Democratic, and 2 competitive seats five times. Will the Ohio Supreme Court take a step further than telling the legislature to do something? Could they do anything at all now that Ohio’s primaries are over?
- A Florida appeals court has stayed a decision to overrule the Governor’s plan to change Florida’s 16 Republican/11 Democratic seats to 18 Republican,8 Democratic, and 2 competitive seats. The Florida courts will need to deal with the elimination of 2 majority Black districts – but not for this election.
- New York Democrats will be fortunate to retain 19 seats. Win NY 01 or NY 02 and NY 11 or NY 22, Democrats get close to their original 22 seat target.
Congress is our national legislature. Something is deeply wrong with the differences in how gerrymandering is treated. Pennsylvania has had its pro-Republican gerrymandering stopped. North Carolina has had its pro-Republican gerrymandering stopped temporarily. Maryland and New York have had their pro-Democrat gerrymandering stopped. Florida and Ohio appear to be on their merry way to gerrymander the 2022 election of Members of Congress to favor Republicans even though a Florida judge found that state’s redistricting violated Florida’s constitution and Ohio’s Supreme Court found that its legislature’s redistricting violated that state’s constitution.
If we are one country, shouldn’t we have the same rules for redistricting? Shouldn’t we have fair redistricting rules?
