Len’s Political Note #808 Senate Long Shots

 April 29tht , 2026                     Len’s Political Note #808 Senate Long Shots

2026                                              General Election and Primaries

 These are the long shots. I have arranged them in order, as I did in the previous piece.  The candidates who I think your donation could make a difference for are listed first.  They are long shots who I believe have some chance, no matter how slim,  to win an upset are first.

In Len’s Political Note #807, I suggested donations to a dozen Senate candidates.  In the unlikely event that they all won – Democrats and independents – the Senators opposed to the Republicans would gain a 56-44 majority.  If one or two of these long shot candidates were also to win, we would get ourselves up to 57 or 58 Democrats. Not a likely prospect, but take a look and see if you would like to help out any of them.

 

  1. South Carolina. In 2022, Pediatrician Annie Andrews ran for Congress and was defeated soundly by Nancy Mace – now running for governor of South Carolina.  Annie Andrews’ reaction to losing was to realize that there is no organization that supports children the way AARP supports the elderly.  So she started one. While she was at it, she started a companion PAC that could support candidates who support children.  Annie Andrews is running again, this time for the US Senate.  She can create a contest against Senator Lindsey Graham:  If the voters of South Carolina are as sick of Lindsey Graham as some large portion of non-South Carolinians are; if the voters of South Carolina retain their 38% approval rating of Lindsey Graham that was reported in December, 2025; if the voters of South Carolina believe the whispers about Lindsey Graham that I will not repeat….he could lose his South Carolina Senate Seat.  He could lose an election to Annie Andrews if she is consistently as articulate as she was in a television interview when she displayed a series of X-rays. The first was of a child with a kind of cancer the United States no longer believes needs to be the subject of research. The second was of a child with a bullet wound. She noted we preclude public funding for firearms injury studies as a public health matter. The third was of a child with a medical problem that left him full of sh**.  She followed that X-Ray with a video of Lindsey Graham talking.  She described the incumbent Senator as also being full of sh**, of having changed his views on every issue in the 22 years he has been in the Senate.  Does Annie Andrews have the money to compete with Lindsey Graham?  She had $2.6 million at the end of the first quarter of 2026.  He had $11.6 million.  She needs more.  She does not necessarily need to have as much as Lindsey Graham has.  FLIP LINDSEY GRAHAM’S SEAT. HE DOES NOT OWN IT.  DONATE TO ANNIE ANDREWS. See Len’s Political Note #800

  1. Erik Murray is the son of a Kansas City, Kansas official. His dad made it out of the ghetto working for the city and marrying a teacher who became a school administrator.  They sent their kids to the most demanding available schools and Erik Murray was a beneficiary.  When he came home from college, he went to work for a developer his dad knew through his city work.  After working for one local developer after another, he and his wife moved to California where he did similar work, eventually working for himself.  He thrived enough as a real estate developer that when they returned to Kansas City, they were there to do good.  That impulse to do good has led him to run for the US Senate against incumbent Roger Marshall, who is the kind of medical doctor weak-minded enough to follow the lead of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. We have no polls. We know that at the end of the first quarter of 2026, Roger Marshall had $4.8 million.  Erik Murray had $100,000.  If he acts like a wealthy guy running for office, Erik Murray could donate or even lend a substantial amount of money to his campaign. Then he would be a long shot to  FLIP ROGER MARSHALL’S SEAT. DONATE TO ERIK MURRAY.  See Len’s Political Note #792

  1. Mississippi Scott Colon is a Black District Attorney who has won three times in a majority white district.  He comes from a Republican political family.  His mother was elected as a judge in chancery court.  Chancery Court generally deals with issues that do not involve financial compensation. His dad was an attorney. He was a Republican candidate for State Treasurer before the tide turned in Mississippi.  He was a group captain on the Ronald Reagan transition team.  Scott Colom was elected District Attorney in 2015, defeating a white incumbent in this majority white district with 54% of the vote.  He won again in 2019 and in 2023. He is proud of his conviction rate in murder cases and of his careful handling of young people who need not be charged for minor crimes.  There is a story to his candidacy for the Senate.  Joe Biden nominated him for a federal district court position.  Scott Colom got bipartisan support.  Originally referred by Congressman Bennie Thompson, he got a positive blue slip from Senator Roger Wicker.  Senator Cindy-Hyde Smith, however, refused a blue slip and prevented Scott Colom from being approved for the job. The incumbent that Scott Colom is running against is Cindy Hyde-Smith, but not because she opposed his nomination. We should note the reasons she gave for opposing his confirmation.  We should consider whether we believe her.  She said she opposed his confirmation because he received campaign funds in 2015 from George Soros (so indirectly that Scott Colom had no idea himself that any part of the money came from George Soros) and because he favored transgendered women playing in women’s sport (He did not.  He actually he opposed something else — criminalizing transgender care).  Is there a chance that enough donors will keep him in the game. While Cindy Hyde-Smith started the second quarter of 2026 with $2.5 million, he started the year with $560,000. If he raises enough money, could he MOVE MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND FLIP HYDE-SMITH’S SEAT? DONATE TO SCOTT COLOM.  See Len’s Political Note #764.

  1. South Dakota. Brian Bengs

Brian Bengs grew up in Iowa.  He graduated from a high school so small it was closed the year after he graduated.  After a stint in the Navy, he came home, got a BA from Iowa State and a JD from Iowa. This time, he joined the Air Force, served in JAG, retired as a Lt. Colonel, taught at the NATO School at Oberammergau and retired not that far from home in South Dakota.  He taught a bit at South Dakota’s Northern State University then settled in the Black Hills and became a Ranger at Wind Cave National Park.   An advocate for federal parks, he ran for the Senate in 2022 as the Democratic nominee and got clobbered by John Thune.  He did not develop a taste for partisan politics.  He returned to being an independent as soon as the election was over.  But DOGE did it.  Trump did it.  The chaos and corruption he was seeing in Washington was magnified by Donald Trump and Elon Musk.  Brian Bengs would run this time against a far weaker senator and without what Jon Tester describes as the burden of running as a Democrat in the northwest part of the country. The incumbent Mike Rounds is the son of a former state highway director and former head of the state Petroleum Council.  If Brian Bengs can raise enough money, he can make his argument heard that Mike Rounds is just a pol.  There are no polls.  Rounds finished the second quarter of 2026 with $2.9 million dollars in cash.  Brian Bengs had raised $235,000 in his campaign, but spent most of it attempting to be known in South Dakota.  He ended the quarter with $50,000.  Give him a chance to FLIP MIKE ROUNDS SEAT. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #774.

  1. Hallie Shoffner is a 37 year old farmer from Shoffner, Arkansas. The town is named for her family, which has farmed there for six generations.  When Hallie Shoffner took over, this 1,500 acre industrial farm was faltering while growing rice, corn, wheat, and soybeans.   In her effort to save the farm, she transformed it into a seed farm, selling to other farmers.  Now she is primarily a broker rather than a farmer.  She’s also a blogger, reaching farmers throughout the region.  She describes two factors endangering farms like hers:  Climate change. And a Farm Bill that has not been updated since 2018. When she announced her candidacy for the US Senate, she explained she was no longer a “Young” Democrat”, the group to whom she was speaking, but she wanted to work with them to make certain that Arkansas was a place in which young people had a future.  Hallie Shoffner has been disciplined.  She avoids discussions about culture war issues and is focused on the economy, particularly the farm economy and affordable groceries.  She targets tje incumbent Tom Cotton obliquely. His college and law degree are from Harvard.  She complains about the Democrats and Cotton at the same time: “The Democratic Party has ignored places like Arkansas, and so we kicked them out, as we should have. We got tired of Ivy League-educated politicians that dug themselves up in D.C., and pushed real Arkansans to the back of the line. The problem is, is that Tom Cotton turned around and did exactly the same thing, and we are no better off for it, which is why I think it’s important for us to have a farmer, a working Arkansan representing us in the Senate”. Hallie Shoffner certainly is a long shot, but go ahead.  Take a shot. FLIP TOM COTTON’S SEAT.  DONATE.  See Len’s Political Note #786

  1. Kentucky – Charles Booker will probably win the Democratic Primary on May 19. He may be a longer shot than his primary opponent Amy McGrath for the general election.  She was a former US Marine fighter pilot, Charles Booker’s  dream of a black-white poor people campaign is expressed by the name of the organization he created and the book he wrote – From the Hood to the Holler.  He and Amy McGrath exemplify the divide in southern Democratic parties.  Amy McGrath is a southern white woman from the military.  She was an extraordinary fundraiser.  Opposing Mitch McConnell in 2020, she raised $94 million dollars.  That was enough to ensure that she could defeat Charles Booker in the primary, but only by a few points. It was not enough to defeat the Senate Majority Leader.  She lost 58-38.  In 2022, Charles Booker defeated two military veterans and an educator in the primary for the opportunity to lose to Incumbent Rand Paul 62-38.  According to a poll in October, 2025, Charles Booker was leading Amy McGrath in 2025 by 3 points for the primary win and the Democratic nomination.  Two polls in 2026, both paid for by right wing media organizations, both conducted by Emerson College which is respected for its work, found the race to be not so close.  In February, Charles Booker led by 11 points; in March by 18. Amy McGrath is leading in the money race – but not with the kind of money she had when she ran against Mitch McConnell.  At the end of the first Quarter of 2026, she had $2 million to Charles Booker’s $300,000.  With Mitch McConnell retiring and no incumbent in the race, the Republican nominee will be either right wing congressman Andy Biggs or Mitch McConnell favorite and an African American, the state Attorney General Daniel Cameron.  The polls are inconclusive. though the ones with Barr leading are funded by the same media organizations that funded polls finding Booker leading by a lot.  The only general election available poll was from December, 2025 and was funded by Charles Booker. He trailed Barr by 11 points, Cameron by 7.  In choosing which Democrat to support now, there is not a lot to hold onto.  McGrath’s financial lead is real, but not enough to contest a general election.  Booker’s lead in polls may be illusory. Because we want the Democratic nominee to have enough resources to conduct a general election campaign, it might make sense to wait a month and make a bigger donation to the Democrat who is nominated.  If it turns out to be Booker v Cameron, Booker would be a long shot, but not impossible.  If it is Barr v McGrath, McGrath would be a long shot, but not impossible.

  1. Idaho Todd Achilles is running against one of the weakest incumbents. Jim Risch is 82 years old. He is not the oldest US Senator. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is 84.  Mitch McConnell is 83.  Angus King of Maine and Dick Durbin of Illinois are 81.  Mitch McConnell and Dick Durbin are retiring this year.  Bernie Sanders is a national icon.  He may live forever.  We’ll see what Angus King does when he is up for election in 2028.  But Jim Risch is rolling along with nobody to stop him other than a Democrat or the Independent Todd Achilles.  Jim Risch can raise money.  He ended the first quarter of 2026 with $3.9 million, substantially more than Todd Achilles’$140Thousand.  Todd Achilles is a former tank commander and an entrepreneur.  He funded a head to head poll against Risch in March.  Risch was ahead by 14 points.  Risch chairs the committee on foreign relations.  He blocked holocaust historian Deborah Lipstadt from being confirmed as the monitor for anti-Semitism. He prevented the committee from requiring testimony of the then Secretary of State after he fired the Inspector General who was investigating Trump’s decision to sell arms to Saudi Arabia.  Risch is not a full Trumper.  He participated in the certification of Joe Biden as President after the 2020 election and condemned that January 6 attack as “unpatriotic and un-American in the extreme” and added that it created “deep distrust in the integrity and veracity of our elections.”  Circumstances would probably have to change to make it possible for Todd Achilles defeat Jim Risch.  I am the same age as Bernie Sanders and am aware that circumstances can change on a dime.  If Todd Achilles is willing to spend his time and energy on this project to run against Risch, perhaps you would be willing to DONATE to his campaign.
  2. Louisiana:  Is Louisiana less promising than Idaho?  Louisiana has changed its rules. They have dropped their non-partisan primary, top two run-off.  They have returned to partisan primaries and a 50% requirement to avoid a run-off (the 50% requirement to avoid a run-off is part of the rule for the general election, too).  The Republican three-person race is bitter and angry.  There have been ten polls for the Republican primary in 2026. In one poll,  Trump-endorsed Congresswoman Julia Letlow leads State Treasurer John Fleming 31 -25.  Incumbent Bill Cassidy, who was a vote for a Trump conviction in the post-January 6 impeachment trial, trails with 21 percent.  He would be out of the run-off if this result held. In another March poll, Cassidy leads Letlow 45-34.  Fleming trails with 21%.  A third March poll resembled the first one.  Letlow led Fleming 29-24 with Cassidy behind at 20.  Louisiana’s primary will be on May 18; the run-off will be on June 27 (and there will be one, no one is going to get 50% on the first round). Until June 27, Louisiana Republican candidates for the Senate will be spending their money and their energy opposing each other.  So will the Democratic candidates. There are three of them. They do not have as much money as the Republicans.  Among the Republicans, Cassidy ended the first quarter of 2026 with $7.1 million. Letlow had $2.3 million and John Fleming had $2.2 million.  The Democrats could be considered a lesser trio – in money, but not, as far as I am concerned, in appeal.   There are no polls for the Democratic primary.  There are no general election polls available.  Gary Crockett is a Black man who grew up poor in Talula, Louisiana.   He spent 24 years in the Navy, earned college degrees and, learned enough to thrive owning his own businesses – an aerospace business and a music distribution business.  He had $700,000 at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Jamie Davis is a Black man who grew up poor in Waterproof, Louisiana, went to college for two years, and returned home to farm with his dad.  The family-owned Davis Farm is 2,000 acres.  They grow sorghum, corn, soy, and cotton. Jamie Davis is the only one of the three Democratic candidates to have run for office.  He has served on the equivalent of a county council.  Jamie Davis had about $150,000 at the end of the firstt quarter of 2026.  Nick Albares is a white man with New Orleans ties.  He went to Notre Dame then got a Master’s in Public Policy from Georgetown.  He went to work for the New Orleans Catholic Charities, became a budget analyst and served as a policy advisor to John Bel Edwards, the two-term Democratic Governor of Louisiana.  Since then, he has been a senior figure for the Southeast Louisiana Volunteers of America. Preparing for his run for the Senate, he has founded his own non-profit —  GoGo Studies.  “Where Art Becomes a Catalyst for Justice.”  Let’s wait until May 18  or, if necessary,  June 27 to see who is dominating the Democratic race. Could the three Republicans do enough damage to each other so that the Republican nominee is vulnerable?  Vulnerable enough so that a Democrat could get elected?  Not likely, but watch for what happens.