Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website:
From the outside, Arizona is confusing. Maybe Arizonans find their politics confusing, too.
Joe Biden carried Arizona by 10,457 votes. If you can find those 10,457 voters, thank them. One of the fastest growing states in the country, Arizona has 9 Congressional Districts and will still have 9 Congressional districts for the next decade, surprising the prognosticators who thought they would have 10. Some describe Arizona as moving rapidly from leaning Republican to leaning Democratic. Of its current nine Congressional Districts, 5 are held by Democrats. With the new map, opposite of what you would expect, independent commission created 6 districts which lean Republican, two which lead Democratic, and one is a toss-up. Confusing.
Arizona has several important state-wide races. Its primary is August 2
US Senate
Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly (Political Note #387) v. any of 5 Republicans
Governor
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (Political Note #402) v any of 5 Republicans
Other constitutional offices
Attorney General. Democrat Corp Commission Chair Kris Mayes v any of 6 Republicans
Secretary of State. Democratic House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding (Political Note #437) v any of 4 Republicans
After redistricting, Arizona has important Congressional Races
AZ 01 R+7 Democrat State Party Vice-Chair Jevin Hodge v Inc Dave Schweikert or someone primarying him.
AZ 02 R+15 Democratic Incumbent Tom O’Halleran (Political Note #389) v one of 5 Republicans
AZ 04 D+1 Democratic Incumbent Greg Stanton (Political Note #487) v one of 6 Republicans
AZ 06 R+7 One of three Democrats v one of 6 Republicans
May 18th, 2022 Political Note #467 Greg Stanton AZ 04
2022 General Election
Greg Stanton was a successful big city mayor. The US doesn’t have many of those. Phoenix is a genuine big city – 5th largest in the country. It is not New York or Los Angeles, not Chicago or Houston, but it is larger than all the rest of the cities in the United States.
In 2015, Governing magazine named him public official of the year. He had expanded light rail, bike lanes, and sidewalks. As a result, he reduced greenhouse gas emissions. He was on his way to eliminating the sales tax on food, was a leader on LGBT issues and in creating technology jobs.
He could have run for reelection, but was interested in another challenge. Getting elected to Congress turned out to be a piece of cake. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema ran for the US Senate. Greg Stanton ran for her seat. The website 538 says the seat had a 15 point Democratic lean. Greg Stanton won by 22 in his first run in 2018. He won by the same amount in 2020.
Like most people in Arizona (about 60% actually), Greg Stanton was born elsewhere – Long Island, in his case. He grew up in Phoenix where his mother taught school and his father was a shoe salesman. He does not claim midwestern connections, but, for college, he went to Marquette – a Jesuit institution in Milwaukee. He earned a Phi Beta Kappa key in college and stayed in the Midwest. He went to law school at the University of Michigan and then returned home to Phoenix. Greg Stanton worked as an education atorney and was elected to the city council.
In 2005, seven years before Greg Stanton was elected mayor of Phoenix, he married Nicole France. From a tiny town in Utah, she had graduated from the University of Arizona’s law school and was practicing law in a large, local firm. They had two children, but their marriage had its downs as well as ups. Separated between 2016 to 2018, they are together now. She left her law firm partnership in 2018 and is now vice president and general counsel for a cannabis company.
Life in Congress can provide its surprises. For Greg Stanton, the surprise was not in the work itself. In Congress, he has been an unsurprisingly reasonable and effective Member. He belongs to the New Democratic Coalition (NDC) – where you would expect him. This is the mainstream, economics-oriented caucus among Democrats. He is on committees that reflect his personal interests and Arizona’s interest.
Greg Stanton is on the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. Working on this committee, he has extended his interest in public transportation, focusing on creating a connection between the Sky Harbor Airport and the light rail system for which he was resonsible as Phoenix’s mayor.
Greg Stanton is also on the Judiciary Committee. On that committee and as Co-Chair of the NDC’s Committee on Immigration, he has been a leader in the effort to gain citizenship for DREAMers and legal permanent resident status for temporary agricultural workers.
For Greg Stanton, redistricting was the surprise. The redistricting of Arizona appears to be a decade off. After the 2010 census, when Arizona was clearly a Republican state, the independent redistricting commission created 5 districts that elected Democratic Members of Congress and 4 that elected Republican Members. Since then, the state has elected two Democratic US Senators and was part of Joe Biden’s narrow victory in the 2020 election. As noted above, the state’s independent redistricting commission created new district lines that are likely to elect 6 Republicans, 2 Democrats. Greg Stanton’s fourth Congressional District is the toss-up. It leans Democratic by a point.
Greg Stanton has been the kind of Congressman who gets things done, as he was that kind of mayor. Is that what his revised district wants? Do they know the Congressman they have? Greg Stanton needs the resources to reach out to his transformed district. He is a practical man. He kept money from past races, raised more, spent more than a half million dollars already on campaigning, and has $2.4 million available. Two potential opponents have $700,000 and $400,000 available to compete. That is not the end of it, though. The winner of the Republican primary will get more resources. Republicans are doing everything they can to gain a majority in the House. A D+1 lean is no firewall. Help Greg Stanton stay in Congress.
CONGRESSIONAL RACES
The ten closest EVEN or Plus Democratic races
WA 08 EVEN Incumbent Kim Schrier (Political Note #451)
AK AL EVEN Independent challenger Al Gross (Political Note #462)
PA 01 EVEN Challenger Ashley Ehasz (Upcoming Political Note #468)
MN 02 D+1 Incumbent Angie Craig (Political Note #355)
AZ 04 D+1 Incumbent Greg Stanton (Political Note #467)
MD 06 R+1 Incumbent David Trone (Political Note #466)
MI 08 R+1. Incumbent Dan Kildee (Political Note #459)
IA 03 R+2. Incumbent Cindy Axne (Political Note #458)
VA 07 D+2 Incumbent Abigail Spanberger (Political Note #438)
NV 03 D+2 Incumbent Susie Lee (Political Note #356)
Six particularly endangered Democratic incumbents
VA 02 R+6 Elaine Luria (Political Note #388)
OH 09 R+8 Marcy Kaptur (Political Note #430)
PA 08 R+8 Matt Cartwright (Upcoming Political Note #469)
WI 03 R+9 Brad Pfaff — an Open Democratic seat (Political Note #418)
ME 02 R+10 Jared Golden (Political Note #406)
AZ 02 R+15 Tom O”Halleran. (Political Note #389)
Cautions while donating through Act Blue (most Democratic candidates use Act Blue for online donations)
- Take care to hit the donate button only once. If you hit it a second time, you could be charged for two donations instead of one.
- Take care to watch for an already clicked recurring donation. You can unclick it and donate only once if that is your intent.
- Watch for your receipt. If the receipt indicates a donation different from your intention, reply to Act Blue via the receipt right away. They will fix your donation. They want you to donate only what you intend to donate.
