Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
Governor: Political Note #421 Chris Jones Arkansas, Political Note #402 Katie Hobbs Arizona (41 Hobbs – 43 Lake), Political Note #432 Stacey Abrams Georgia (44 Abrams – 49 Kemp) Political Note #358 Laura Kelly Kansas, Political Note #407 Janet Mills Maine, Political Note #381 Gretchen Whitmer Michigan (46 Whitmer – 41 Craig), Political Note # 414 Steve Sisolak Nevada (52 Sisolak – 48 Lombardo), Political Note #449 Joy Hofmeister Oklahoma, Political Note #426 Josh Shapiro Pennsylvania, Political Note #431 Beto O’Rourke Texas (45 O’Rourke – Abbott 52) Political Note #366 Tony Evers Wisconsin
All polls are reported by the website 538 and are from January 2022 or later. If there is more than one poll, the one with 538’s highest quality rating is reported. If quality ratings are equal, the most recent poll is reported. If polling is reported against multiple opponents, the poll with the best scoring Republican is reported.
030222 Political Note #449 Joy Hofmeister Governor Oklahoma
2022 General Election
Joy Hofmeister https://joyforok.com has a challenge before her. Democrats have not been doing well in Oklahoma. In 2018, the Republican won by 12 points. In 2014, the unpopular Republican Mary Fallin was reelected by 15 points.
Kansas is immediately north of Oklahoma. There was a time when Kansas’s politics resembled Oklahoma’s politics. If Joy Hofmeister can pull off a win, the politics of the two states may resemble each other again. In the Political Note supporting Laura Kelly’s candidacy for Governor of Kansas, I wrote the following:
“Former US Senator Sam Brownback, elected Governor of Kansas in 2010, was the mad scientist. He believed that enormous cuts in taxes would create wealth. He wasn’t shilling for big business, though the Koch brothers were very big supporters; he believed he would transform Kansas. Under Brownback’s leadership, taxes on income, other than wages, were eliminated. Individual taxes were cut. Sales taxes were reduced. Taxes on small businesses were eliminated. Kansas’s experiment demonstrated that drastically cutting taxes does not create wealth. Sam Brownback became the least popular governor in the country.”
Kansas now has a Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor, a Democratic State Treasurer, and a decent chance to elect a Democratic Attorney General. Many Republican officials did not go so far as to leave their party, but they went far enough to endorse Democratic state-wide candidates including the current Governor, Laura Kelly. Kansas politics may be reverting to the normal. Of their four Members of Congress, one is a Democrat. The legislature is gerrymandering her district to give them a better chance to replace her.
Oklahoma’s politics resembled Kansas’s politics during the Brownback days. The disdain for taxes during Mary Fallin’s two terms as a Republican Governor of Oklahoma and the consequent lack of resources for public services resembled what was happening in Kansas. Oklahoma didn’t think it out; Oklahoma politicians did not claim they were undergoing a great experiment.
Kevin Stitt, the incumbent Republican, replaced Mary Fallin. He is clever enough to recognize losing propositions. When Mary Fallin endorsed his candidacy, he rejected her support. He was going to clean up the mess that she had left, he said.
Kevin Stitt made his start selling education support tools including, presumably, encyclopedias. Kevin Stitt was a superstar at the task. He was the company’s first first-year salesman to lead all others in sales. He made his fortune selling mortgages. A Business Insider article rated Stitt’s Gateway Mortgages among the fifteen shadiest lenders in the government backed mortgage industry. Stitt’s response to official agency oversight was brilliant. He acquiesced and fired the offending employees. He did that in Illinois, so the firm’s license was not revoked. He did the same in Georgia and the firm’s lifetime ban was lifted. His firm fixed a “clerical error” in its Wisconsin application and was then allowed to practice. I don’t know if he found the secretary who was responsible so he could fire her.
Kevin Stitt ran a campaign in Oklahoma that was as energetic as his door-to-door sales efforts and as personal as his mortgage lending. He had to use his home as equity to meet the minimum requirement for FHA approval to be a lender. Stitt used that same energy and cunning as governor.
The state of education in Oklahoma was part of Mary Fallin’s mess. Oklahoma’s teachers had joined teachers in other underfunded states like West Virginia and went on strike. Stitt supported raises for teachers — their first raise in ten years. He also persuaded the legislature to eliminate independent boards and commissions and to give him direct control of corrections, health services, transportation, and other areas of government. In exchange, he promised transparency.
Stitt seemed enjoy maddening liberals. Signing a bill into law to prohibit the teaching of Critical Race Theory, he spoke praising Martin Luther King Jr. Liberals or maybe people with common sense use public referenda to fix the mess. Despite Stitt’s opposition, voters chose to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Similarly, Oklahoma voters approved the availability of marijuana for medical purposes.
Stitt could not escape Covid, though. Not only did he reject mask mandates and vaccination mandates. He opposed encouraging masks and vaccinations. He fired the head of the National Guard who was encouraging, though not requiring troops to be vaccinated. He followed Donald Trump’s lead regarding medication. Hydrochloroquine made sense to him. He bought a lot of it for the state. By January 2021, Oklahoma had $2 million worth of the stuff he was trying to resell.
His response to Covid has made him vulnerable, if he is vulnerable at all, he is vulnerable to Joy Hofmeister. She was elected Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014 as a Republican, reelected in 2018 as a Republican, but was term limited for 2022. She has a degree in home economics from Texas Christian and is certified to teach in grade schools and to teach secondary school English. She taught school for a little while, but started a business instead. For 15 years, she owned and operated Kumon Math & Reading Centers in Tulsa. She was appointed to the State Board of Education in 2012 by Governor Mary Fallin. Her experience on the Board almost certainly persuaded her to run for the office of Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014.
Oklahoma is a conservative state and Joy Hofmeister was a conservative Superintendent. Nevertheless, she gets as much credit as Stitt for the two pay raises teachers received. She can claim responsibility for providing free ACT tests for Oklahoma students – making a difference in the number of kids who applied to college. Oklahoma had been part of the national commitment to testing kids. Joy Hofmeister introduced assessments that were more highly regarded and took less time away from teaching. She introduced systems intended to provide individual education plans for every student.
Joy Hofmester switched to become a Democrat in November, 2021 and described herself as a moderate. She said she would take a centrist approach on issues that range from abortion to taxation to teaching about race in schools. She criticized Stitt for his willingness to sign any anti-abortion bill passed by the legislature – constitutional or not. She describes herself as pro-life while also saying an abortion is a personal decision to be made by a woman guided by her faith and her doctor. She complained that Oklahoma’s legislation about teaching about race, signed by Stitt, was rushed and was a “recipe for problems.” Neither the legislature nor Stitt consulted with her or with teachers about what they were considering. She would not commit regarding whether she would ever raise taxes, but praised the 2018 tax increase that was used to pay teacher salary increases. She was critical about Stitt’s reaction to a US Supreme Court decision eliminated state jurisdiction for many crimes on the Oklahoma Native American reservations. Stitt was whining about the decision. She said she would work with tribal leaders.
Joy Hofmeister has been welcomed by Oklahoma Democrats. Not many Oklahoma Democrats are excited about former State Senator Connie Johnson who describes herself as a Democratic Socialist. How will Republicans react to Joy Hofmeister? She says she voted for Trump in 2016, but not in 2020. Stitt did not make the mistakes that Kansas politicians made. He made his own mistakes and conducted his own experiment. His experiment was with Covid. With your help and with the help of Democrats around the country, it is possible that both Kansas and Oklahoma will have Democratic governors after the November election. Join in. Help Joy Hofmeister https://joyforok.com win this election.
Incumbents to defend for Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State
Arizona SofS Reginald Bolding (Open Democratic Seat) https://reginaldbolding.com
Kansas Gov Laura Kelly (Toss up) https://www.laurakellyforkansas.com
Maine Gov Janet Mills (Likely D) https://www.janetmills.com/
Michigan Gov Gretchen Whitmer (Lean D) https://www.gretchenwhitmer.com
Michigan AG Dana Nessel https://www.dananessel.com
Michigan SofS Jocelyn Benson https://votebenson.com
Minnesota Gov Tim Walz (Likely D) https://walzflanagan.org
Minnesota AG Keith Ellison https://keithellison.org
Minnesota SofS Steve Simon https://stevesimonmn.com
Nevada Gov Steve Sisolak (Likely D) https://stevesisolak.com
Nevada AG Aaron Ford https://www.fordfornevada.com
Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro https://joshshapiro.org (Open Democratic seat)
Wisconsin Gov Tony Evers (Lean D) https://tonyevers.com
Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul https://www.joshkaul.org
Wisconsin SofS Doug LaFollette https://www.facebook.com/sosdoug
Democrats who can flip Republican Governors or other state officers
Arizona Gov Secretary of State Katie Hobbs https://www.katiehobbs.org (Toss up)
Arkansas Gov African American Nuclear Engineer Chris Jones https://chrisforgovernor.com (Safe R says Cook)
Georgia Gov Ex State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (Lean R) https://staceyabrams.com
Georgia SofS State Rep Bee Nguyen https://www.beeforgeorgia.com
Georgia AG State Senator Jen Jordan https://jen4georgia.com
Kansas AG Attorney Chris Mann https://www.chrismannforkansas.com
Maryland AG. Congressman Anthony Brown. https://www.anthonybrown.com (Open Dem Seat)
Nevada SofS Attorney Cisco Aguilar http://www.cisconv.co
Oklahoma Gov Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister https://joyforok.com
Texas Ex Congressman Beto O’Rourke https://betoorourke.com
In some states, we don’t know who the Democratic nominee will be
Florida Gov Ex Gov and Rep Charlie Crist, Ag Commissioner Nikki Fried, and State Sen Annette Taddeo are the principal competitors for the Democratic nomination (Lean R)
Ohio Gov Mayors John Cranley and Nan Whaley have announced for this seat where the Republican governor is facing a primary challenge (Likely R)
Maryland Gov I count eight candidates so far for this formerly Republican open seat (Lean D)
Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
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Support Democrats. Sadly, Republicans have become enemies of democracy. Even in Minnesota Republicans have demonstrated this condition.
