Think Nationally, Act Locally

Who should I support?  Who should I give money to?  Whoever you support for the Senate and the House, you should also support a gubernatorial candidate, or two, or more. We can rebuild a majority party if we have governors.  If we have state legislatures.  Look at these candidates.  Think about a strategy for donating money to candidates for governor.  Support candidates you see as crucial for their state and the country.There are twenty-four gubernatorial races that analysts consider to be contests — ranging from toss up to likely.  Democrats in Toss up and Tilt Republican states especially warrant support.  Three Strategies to consider:Strategy 1:  Big StatesFlorida, Georgia, Ohio.  These a close races with progressive Democratic candidates.  It is both historic and incidental that the candidates in Florida and Georgia are African American.  More important, they have demonstrated their competence in their previous jobs. A Democratic victory in Ohio would be a great victory for consumers.   It takes a lot of money to win in these states.  Do what you can.Strategy 2: Symbolic StatesIowa, Wisconsin, Kansas, South Dakota. Democrats can win the contest between progressive Democrats and deeply conservative Republicans this year in Iowa.Democrats can reverse the attacks on education and unions this year in Wisconsin.Democrats can opt for fiscal responsibility to replace the experiment in Laffer economics in Kansas this year.Democrats can move mountains (or, I guess, prairies) by electing a Democrat in South Dakota.Strategy 3:  Turning BluishMaine and Nevada.This is especially true for Maine.  Don’t forget Susan Collins is up in 2020.  A Democratic governor followed by a Democratic Senator in 2020 will make Maine Blue.This is especially true for Nevada.  Nevada elected a Democratic Senator in 2016.  This year Nevada could elect a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator. Strategy 4.  Mix and MatchIdentify who you love among these candidates.  Support the candidate(s) you love.

THE CANDIDATESToss up1. Challenger Mayor Andrew Gillum for Florida Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 3.7% in the polls.Florida has the third largest population in the country.  More than 21 million people.  Fewer people than Texas; More than New York.Two thirty-nine year olds are competing for Governor.  Andrew Gillum has been a successful mayor of Tallahassee. He has focused on children, youth, and education.  Tallahassee is a small city, different from southern and central.  It does not have a significant Hispanic population.  It has a substantial black population of which Gillum is a part.  Ron DeSantis has been a conservative Republican Congressman from Jacksonville — also in north Florida.  His campaign has begun badly, entangled by his own racist remarks. 

Andrew Gillum lost 50 – 49.

2. Challenger Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers for Wisconsin Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 3.6% in the polls. With just under 6 million people, Wisconsin is in the middle tier of Midwestern states — Minnesota, Indiana, Missouri.  Much smaller than Michigan. 

Size doesn’t count.  This is an ideological battle with a Republican Governor who is so business-oriented that he supported a tax gift to a Korean firm at a rate of millions of dollars for each job that will be created.  Scott Walker, seeking his third term, began as governor fighting the teachers union.  He beat them, beat private sector unions later.  While Walker was winning elections and turning back a recall effort, in off years, when the Superintendent of Public Instruction is elected in Wisconsin in a non-partisan format, Tony Evers  was winning statewide elections by larger margins.  The latest fight between the two was Walker’s complaint.   A teacher/union leader’s license was not pulled after he was discovered viewing pornography in school.  Evers, usually patiently, explains it would not be legal to pull the license unless the pornography reached a student. They worked together to change the law.  Walker attacked him anyway.

Tony Evers won 50 – 49.

3..Challenger Businessman Fred Hubbell for Iowa Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 3.5% in the polls.Iowa, with just over 3 million people, is one of the smallest states in the Midwest.  Iowa’s demographic differences do not show easily on a census.   There is a divide between evangelical Christians and mainstream Christians. Fred Hubbell is not just an Iowa businessman.  His family’s businesses –  real estate, insurance, and more – have been mainstays of the state for more than 100 years.  The family donated the house which is now the Governor’s mansion.  His personal and financial support for Planned Parenthood and for African American causes reflects his political views.  In a continuation of the confrontation between progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans, Hubbell’s opponent is Governor Kim Reynolds.  She inherited the position when the governor left to become President Trump’s Ambassador to China.

Fred Hubbell lost 50 – 47.

4. Challenger Former Head of the US Consumer Protection Bureau Richard Cordray for Ohio  Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 2.7% in the polls. With 11.7 million people, Ohio is the seventh largest state.  Slightly more people than Georgia, slightly fewer than Illinois.  A swing state, geographers describe southeastern Ohio as part of Appalachia.  Others would, too.  Cleveland is part of the formerly industrial midwest.  Cincinnati borders Kentucky.

Ohio’s current, term-limited governor is one of the last Republicans to find Donald Trump appalling.  Cordray was running the Consumer Protection Bureau that was Elizabeth Warren’s idea, the agency she wanted to run.  Mike DeWine was a wunderkind in Ohio politics, elected to Congress in 1982 in his twenties.  Now his son is a Justice of the Ohio Supreme Court.  He has won and lost state-wide elections, defeating Richard Cordrayfor Attorney General in 2010, losing his US Senate seat to Sherrod Brown in 2006.  As AG, he joined the suit to declare the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional.

Richard Cordray lost 51 – 46.

5. Challenger County Commissioner Steve Sisolak for Nevada  Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of .7% in the polls.  Nevada is the fastest growing state in the country.  Has been for a few decades.  At just over 3 million people, it has quadrupled its 1980 population and is thirty times larger than it was in 1940.  Non-Hispanic whites have been less than a majority of the population for about two years.  Hispanics are more than a quarter of the population.Nevada is becoming a Democratic state.  It elected a Democratic Senator in 2016 and may elect another one in 2018.  The outgoing moderate Republican governor grudgingly endorsed the hard edged conservative Attorney General Republican Adam LaxaltSisolakis a business oriented Democrat.  He ran a retail oil business, expanded into real estate. He advocates greater spending on education and greater accessibility for health care.

Steve Sisolak won 49 – 45.

6. Challenger House Minority Leader Stacy Abrams for Georgia Real Clear Politics shows her behind by an average of 2% in the polls.

Georgia is the eighth largest state in the country.  With over 10 million people, it is slightly smaller than Ohio.  The population in black and white.  30% black, 60% white.

Abrams has been effective managing the interests of Democrats in a Republican legislature.  If anything, she has been criticized for compromising too often.  Like Gillum, she is African American.  Her opponent, Brian Kemp, is Secretary of State.  He has tied himself to President Trump.  He has abused his power as Secretary of State.   Currently, he is delaying over 50,000 voter registrations because of minor discrepancies in the registration (inclusion or not of a middle initial, for instance).  Those delayed are mostly non-white voters.

Stacey Abrams lost 50 – 49.

7. Challenger Attorney General Janet Mills for Maine Real Clear politics does not have a summary of polls for Maine.  Maine’s population is slightly more than 1.3 million people. It has only two Members of Congress.  It is the whitest state in the country.  95% white in 2010, down from almost 99% in 1990. 

The current governor was Donald Trump before Trump was president.  Mills is a fairly conservative Democrat. As Attorney General she had to clash with the governor often as he attempted to impose provocative conservative policies.  She promises a return to normality.  Her opponent, businessman Shawn Moody, makes no such promise.  

Janet Mills won 51 – 43.

Tilt Republican8. Challenger State Senator Laura Kelly for Kansas  Real Clear Politics shows her behind by 1 point in three out of four polls.  Like Iowa and Nebraska, Kansas is a small Midwestern state. There is no book called What’s the Matter with Iowa or Nebraska, though. Under Governor Brownback, Kansas tried a Republican experiment.  Cut Taxes deeply and wait for prosperity.  When prosperity didn’t come, cut services.  Cut education, especially.By 2017, the governors of Kansas and Oklahoma, each of whom tried a similar experiment, were the least popular governors in the country.  Laura Kelly would bring Kansas back to a kind of normal politics.  In civilian life, she was an advocate for parks and recreation (not the television program).  In the state senate, she was an advocate for fiscal responsibility.  Her opponent, Secretary of State Kris Kobach has been a leader in a different Republican experiment — suppressing voters.  No matter how many Kansans vote for these Republicans, they do not deserve the government they received under Brownback and would get under a Kobach regime

Laura Kelly won 48 – 43.

9. Challenger State Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton for South Dakota  In the only poll, and that poll was in May, he was behind by a point. South Dakota is one of the states with fewer than a million people and only one member of Congress.South Dakota Democrats have given us someone to be excited about.  Sutton is a rancher and a rodeo rider.  Confined to a wheel chair, paralyzed after a rodeo accident, he is indomitable.   Pro education, pro health care, pro mental health care, pro Native Americans, pro integrity.  Those are his priorities.  The press notes that he is pro-life and pro-gun.  Sure.  But that’s not his focus.  His opponent is South Dakota’s Congresswoman Kristi Noem.  She voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act and to pass the Tax Cut for the Wealthy.  She would add to that resume complete repeal of the estate tax and an intention to remain 100% anti-abortion.  Sutton would be a great addition to a class of new Democratic governors.

Billie Sutton lost 51 – 48.