Lots of Democrats here

DO NOT TAKE THE HOUSE FOR GRANTED.  COMPLACENCY KILLS CAMPAIGNS.There are 87 Members of Congress from the Northeast.  Close to 60 of them are Democrats.  Nevertheless, there are lots of races here.  Races where people deserve support.  Toss ups, Tilt D, Tilt R, Lean R.  All worth looking at. 

To win the House, Democrats need to flip 24 seats held now by Republicans.  Before considering the close contests and less close Likely Rs below there are 4 Solid or Likely Ds which will flip seats.  Jeff Van Drew in NJ 02, MikieSherill in NJ 11, ChrissyHoulahan in PA 06, and Susan Wild in PA 07.  That doesn’t even count Incumbent Conor Lamb in PA 17 defeating Incumbent Keith Rothfus.

20 more to go.  How many of the candidates described below will be elected?   Assume four.  The number who have a better than 50% chance of winning.  Not to say that those are the ones who will be elected.  Not to say that we can’t do better.  Based on that assumption, we will need to flip 16 seats outside the northeast.What kind of strategy should a donor use? 

Strategy 1: Support those with a better than 50-50 chance of winning:Brindisi of NY 22, Kim of NJ 03, Malinowski of NJ 07, Delgado of NY 19.Strategy 2: Support those who, with enough resources, would have a decent chance of winning:Wallace of PA 01, Golden of ME, Scott of PA 10, Rose of NY 11.Strategy 3: Root underdogs who have a shot.MacMurray NY, Perry Gershon NY 01, Dana Balter NY 24.Strategy 4: Mix and match.  Focus on some states.  Do what makes sense to you. Support candidates you like, or love.Close Contests1. Challenger State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi for New York’s 22nd District 538 calculates that he has a 67% chance of being elected. Brindisiis a builder.  As a school board member, he built schools.  As an assemblyman, he has built infrastructure for Utica and for SUNY Polytechnic.  The incumbent is odd.  She makes odd comments.  Here’s one.  Most mass murderers are Democrats. 

Anthony Brindisi won 51 – 49.

2. Challenger Former National Security Officer Andy Kim for New Jersey’s 3rd District 538 calculates that he has a 62% chance of being elected. 

Kim  is a security expert.  He worked with General Patraeus in Iraq, served as the Iraq Country Director for the State Department and the Director for Iraq at the National Security Council.  MacArthur is wealthy and formidable, but on the wrong side of the health care and tax issues.

Andy Kim won 50 – 49. 3. Challenger Former Assistant Secretary of State Tom Malinowski for New Jersey’s 7th District  538 calculates that he has a 62% chance of being elected. 

Malinowski would be a conscience for the Congress.  Head of the Washington office of Human Rights Watch for years, he became Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights under Obama.  The incumbent, Leonard Lance, makes a case for himself as a moderate.  It is not clear that a sort of moderate is what his constituents want any more.

Tom Malinowski won 52 – 47.

4. Challenger Attorney Antonio Delgado for New York’s 19th District  538 calculates that he has a 53% chance of being elected. 

Rhodes Scholar, Harvard Law graduate, rapper (what?  rapper?), member of a large international law firm, Delgado would be an Hispanic black man representing a very white district.  He is being attacked for rapping.  His goal was to introduce social justice to rapping.  His opponents don’t like his language.  The incumbent, who moved to the area to run for an Assembly seat years ago attacks Delgado for moving to the district to run for Congress.

Antonio Delgado won 50 – 47.

5. Challenger Philanthropist Scott Wallace for Pennsylvania’s 1st District  538 calculates that he has a 49% chance of being elected.Descendant of Henry Wallace, businessman, and philanthropist, Scott Wallace has funded a variety of liberal  organizations and causes.  He is a beneficiary of the court mandated redistricting that has made PA districts fairer.  He is attacked because one of the organizations he funded proved to be pro-Palestinian.

Scott Wallace lost 51 – 49.

6. Challenger State Senator and Veteran Jared Golden for Maine’s 2nd District 538 calculates that he has a 39% chance of being elected. 

Stalled at  home by PTSD when he returned from Afghanistan, a Bowdoin professor to whom he sold a pizza encouraged him to apply.  He was admitted, he was supported, he graduated and had opportunities in the world.  His choice was to run for office.  He is a leader in Maine’s legislature and is running in Maine’s more Republican district.  A former investment manager, the incumbent Bruce Poliquin is less extreme than many Republicans and is not an easy target.

Jared Golden won 50 – 50 (3,905 votes)

Likely R7. Challenger Pastor and Veteran George Scott for Pennsylvania 10th District  538 calculates that he has a 25% chance of being elected. 

When Lt. Colonel George Scott retired from 20 years in the army, much of it in combat, he went to Divinity School.  He is seeking peace.  Among his issues is gun safety.  The Pennsylvania redistricting leaves this central PA district still Republican, but not as extremely Republican as its predecessor district.  He has a chance against incumbent Scott Perry who took advantage of being in a solidly Republican district by taking extreme positions. A freedom caucus member, he opposed renewing the Violence Against Women Act, sought to privatize Medicare, and voted for repealing the Affordable Care Act with no replacement.

George Scott lost 51 – 49.

8. Challenger Health Care Executive and veteran Max Rose for New York’s 11th District  538 calculates that he has a 23% chance of being elected. 

Rose is running to flip the last Republican Congressional district in New York City.  Staten Island plus a little bit of Brooklyn, this is a conservative district.  Young and energetic, he is progressive on health issues and more.  The incumbent, when he was District Attorney, declined to prosecute after a police choke hold death. He beat back a primary challenge from his out of jail predecessor.

Max Rose won 53 – 47.

9. Challenger Professor Dana Balter for New York’s 24th District  538 calculates that she has a 15% chance of being elected.

Balter is a great organizer.  She worked her way through the early stages of the campaign, obtaining the endorsement of each of the four county committees in the district. The DCCC, worried she was too progressive for the district, found and funded an opponent who Balterdefeated handily.  Can she do as well against incumbent John Katko?  A former prosecutor, he is strongly anti-abortion.  His response to the Parkland shooting was to support a study of school safety.

Dana Balter Lost 53 – 47.

10. Challenger Businessman Perry Gershon for NY 01 538 calculates that he has an 13% chance of being elected. Gersonis a successful local businessman and community leader as far away from New York City as you can get on Long Island.   The most moderate of a slew of candidates who wanted to take on the incumbent Lee Zeldin — a strong supporter of and, to the extent he can be, a replica of President Trump. 

Perry Gershon lost 53 – 46.

11. Challenger Town Supervisor Nate McMurray for New York’s 27th District  538 calculates that he has an 11% chance of being elected. 

Who would have expected a town supervisor on Grand Island (in between Buffalo and Niagara Falls) to be fluent in Korean?  Who would have expected the Republicans to pretend that McMurray, speaking Korean, was promising to move jobs overseas?  Maybe you should expect that.  This district is so Republican that it is in play only because the incumbent was indicted for insider trading.  McMurray gives every indication of being a decent and competent man.  He had not expected this to be a competitive race.  When he learned of the indictment, he insisted he would not celebrate his opponent’s misfortune.  He responded on the phone. Immediately upon learning.  No artifice.  Being who he is. Help him be a Congressman.

Nate McMurray lost 49 – 48.