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Take the Senate
…My plan was to do summaries at the end of October and the beginning of November. The fiasco confirming Kavanaugh changed my mind. The Republicans whipping up anger in their base changed my mind. We need to look at the Senate races now. We need to fund Democratic candidates now.
……A friend asked me which three candidates he should send money to. II will tell all of you: Send money to ten or twelve Senate candidates.
……Consider the strategies for sending money to only three candidates.…
The Senate is where we need renewed energy. The Democrats seem prepared to take the House. Nate Silver’s 538 gives the Democrats only a 20% chance of gaining control of the Senate. The Senate is where to put your money. ……To win the Senate, Democrats have to net two additional seats. Keep all of the incumbents and win two challenges. Keep all but one of the incumbents and win three challenges. ……A choice of two strategies:
Strategy 1: Keep it Simple.…The two challengers with the greatest chance are Jacky Rosen and Krysten Sinema. Heidi Heitkamp is the incumbent in the greatest danger. Support those three.
Strategy 2: Target practice.…Assume Democrats who are winning will win. All the incumbents win except Heidi Hietkamp of North Dakota.. 538 says Heidi Heitkamp has only a 32% chance of winning. ……Assume challenger Krysten Sinema of Arizona will win. 538 says she has a 61% chance. Focus on the three challengers with the best chance to win, hoping that two of three will make it — Congresswoman Jacky Rosen of Nevada, CongressmanBeto O’Rourke of Texas, and Governor Phil Bredesen.
……Make up your own strategy. Look at the fifteen Democrats listed below. These are all still genuine contests. Do you want to focus on underdogs like Mike Espy who would be Mississippi’s first African American US Senator since Reconstruction? Do you want to preserve incumbents who are in the most danger: Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Bill Nelson of Florida?
……DO SOMETHING. Democratic candidates for the Senate need your help.
…Find their websites. Give some money to three of them, to five of them, to ten or fifteen of them. They are ranked below in reverse order of the likelihood of getting elected. We need those incumbents. We need the challengers, too.…
THE CANDIDATES…1. Challenger Mike Espy, former Congressman and former Secretary of Agriculture of Mississippi: 538 shows a 15% chance of him being elected. Real Clear Politics says that with a three way race followed by a runoff, they can’t make use of current polls.……Espy would be the first African American elected to the Senate from Mississippi since Reconstruction. He was a moderate as a congressman. He fit right into the Clinton administration’s cabinet. He left because he was indicted for receiving a bribe. He was acquitted of that accusation and all related accusations. You could see that as one more black man falsely accused. He was something of an ally of Republican Senator Thad Chochran who resigned due to illness. ……Espy’sopponent in the December run off of the top two November vote-getters will either be Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party Republican state Senator who Trump has not endorsed mindful of the Democratic victory in Alabama or the appointed incumbent Cindy Hyde Smith, a former State Secretary of Agriculture and Commerce for Mississippi. Although she only recently registered as a Republican, there is little about her that would distinguish her from other Mississippi Republicans.
Mike Espy lost the run off 55 – 45.……2. Challenger former Governor Phil Bredesen of Tennesse 538 shows a 20% chance of him being elected. Real Clear Politics shows him behind by an average of 2.7% in polls ……Phil Bredesenis a two term former governor of Tennessee. He was and is still extremely popular. However, he could not stop Tennessee’s movement from a Democratic to a Republican state. He was well regarded for bringing an NFL team to Tennessee, for being very conservative fiscally, and for maintaining good relationships with Tennessee’s African American community. His opponent, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is extremely conservative.…
Phil Bredesen lost 55 – 44.
…3. Challenger Congressman Beto O’Rourke of Texas:538 shows a 22% chance of him being elected. Real Clear Politics shows him behind by an average of 6.6 % in polls ……Beto O’Rourke enjoys a Spanish nickname for Robert because he grew up in a predominately Latino city. He speaks fluent Spanish. He has burnished an off beat image, having been in a rock band that traveled internationally after he finished college. Critics argue that he is not so offbeat, that his father in law is a wealthy contractor entangled in politics. His opponent is the incumbent Ted Cruz. Smart, a debater, Harvard Law graduate, he is widely disliked — by Senators, by donors. Texas’s Republican voters don’t deal with him personally, so they don’t dislike him.
Beto O’Rourke lost 51 – 48.
4. Incumbent Heidi Heitkampof North Dakota.538 shows a 32% chance of her being reelected. Real Clear Politics shows her behind by an average of 8.7% in polls ……Heidi Heitkampis the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent Senator. She has not been an automatic Democratic vote. She supported the Affordable Care Act and opposed the 2017 Tax Cuts for the Wealthy; she supports a balanced budget amendment and same sex marriage. She does not support many gun safety proposals. Her opponent, Congressman Kevin Cramer has disparaged women.minimized the separation of immigrant children from their parents, has provoked a quarrel with Native Americans about their courts, and would repeal the Affordable Care Act.……Heitkamp’sno on confirming Bret Kavanaugh electrified national support for her and her base at home. Let’s see if it makes a difference.
Heidi Heitkamp lost 55 – 44.……5. Challenger Congresswoman Jacky Rosen of Nevada: 538 shows her having a 47% chance of being elected. Real Clear Politics shows her tied in an average of polls.……A one term Congressman, Harry Reid encouraged Jacky Rosen to run for Congress from her position as President of her synagogue. He saw her as a natural politician. She describes Trump’s agenda as hateful and corrupt. She advocates for clean energy, health care as a right, and Nevada’s immigrants who are essential parts of the “fabric of the community.” The incumbent, Dean Heller, was seen as the most vulnerable Republican Senator. After a period of ambivalence, he has embraced Trump. Trump has reciprocated, — for this campaign.
Jacky Rosen won 50 – 45.……6. Incumbent Claire McCaskil of Missouri. 538 shows her as having a 58% chance of being reelected. Real Clear Politics shows her behind by an average of .4% in the polls. ……McCaskill is a moderate Democrat in a state that is voting more and more like a conservative border state. Although she has a moderate voting record and a temperament that joins her with moderates, she votes with Democrats on crucial issues ranging from the DREAM Act to opposition to the 2017 Tax Cut for the Wealthy. She has received a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood on women’s health issues. She has recalled instances of sexist attitudes and worse while she was a state legislator. Her opponent is an abortion opponent. The Missouri Attorney General, he criticizes the Roe v. Wade decision and has said that sex is appropriate only in marriage. He joined a lawsuit arguing the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional, praised the Trump procedures for separating immigrant children from their parents, and gets good marks from the NRA.
Claire McCaskill lost 52 – 46.……7. Challenger Congresswoman Krysten Sinema of Arizona. 538 shows her as having a 61% chance of being elected. Real Clear Politics shows her ahead by an average of .5% in the poll.
……Sinema is a quirky moderate, sometimes conservative Democrat. Her story of time growing up in an unused gas station without heat or plumbing is famous. Her success as a student is not quite as famous. Her earliest campaigns were for the Green Party. She was a good student of politics. She found distinctive ways to take conservative positions.’
……Sinema has already voted against Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. She supported the DREAM Act and tougher laws for screening immigrants and punishing illegal immigrants. She has taken conservative/libertarian positions on privacy and oversight of telecommunications. She is, however, in favor of abortion rights and rights for members of the LGBTQ community (she describes herself as bisexual). She supported the Affordable Care Act, opposed the Tax Cut for the Wealthy, and has a particular interest in stopping genocidal regimes (her doctoral thesis was about the Rwanda genocide). Her opponent Congresswoman Martha McSally was an Air Force pilot. She sued the Defense Department for requiring her to wear an abaya outside of the military installation in Saudi Arabia where she was stationed. She is relatively moderate among Republicans and has distanced herself from Trump. She would repeal the Affordable Care Act and supported the Tax Cuts for the Wealthy. She opposes same sex marriage and would allow military contractors to discriminate based on sexual orientation. She is generally pro military and hawkish on foreign policy.
KrystenSinema won 50 – 48.
……8. Incumbent Bill Nelson of Florida. 538 shows him as having a 61% chance of being reelected. Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 2.4% in the polls.
……Bill Nelson is a moderate Democrat. He supported the Affordable Care Act. He opposed the 2017 tax reductions for the wealthy. He has an F rating from the NRA He opposed confirming the appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court as well as the appointment of Bret Kavanaugh. He is most identified with support of the space program. He has, however, advocated for eliminating the estate tax. He took a while before coming around to supporting same sex marriage. His opponent is the retiring two term Governor of Florida, Rick Scott. He touts 20% employment growth during his tenure, but not a poverty level higher than the national average or a median income that is lower. He rejected federal funds for high speed rail between Orlando and Tampa, imposed drug testing for welfare recipients, and both favored and opposed the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion under the ACA. He seems indifferent to climate change and has an A+ rating from the NRA.
Bill Nelson lost 50 – 50 (1,033 votes)
……9. Incumbent Joe Donnelly of Indiana. 538 shows him as having a 77% chance of being reelected. Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 2.5% in the polls.
…Joe Donnelly is relatively conservative on social issues and more progressive on issues related to workers. He opposed the 2017 tax cuts, gets a 10% rating from FreedomWorks and 15% from Club for Growth. Like other moderate Democrats, he supported the Dodd-Frank reforms, but later supported moderating the law and reducing regulations for banks. He voted against the DREAM Act, but to no political avail. At least one organization that opposes immigration gave him a 0% rating. He has an A rating from the NRA and has opposed abortion. Rating candidates is tricky. The National Right to Life Committee gives him a 40% rating while Planned Parenthood gives him a 67% rating. He eventually came around and supported same sex marriage. The Human Rights Coalition now gives him an 80% rating.
……The Indiana Chamber of Commerce has, surprisingly, not endorsed a candidate for governor. The Chamber appears to be dismayed by the Republican candidate Braun’s support for Trump’s tariffs. Most Democrats are dismayed by Braun’s positions on social issues and economic issues.…
Joe Donnelly lost 41 – 45.
…10. Incumbent Jon Tester of Montana. 538 shows him as having an 85% chance of being reelected. Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 3% in the polls.
……Wikipedia quotes the NY Times describing Tester as a “pro-gun, anti-big business pragmatist…..” He gets good scores from the progressive Americans for Democratic Action — a 90% rating, bad scores from the American Conservative Union — 4%. His opponent, the Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale, is a former real estate developer from Maryland with deeply conservative views especially on immigration.
Jon Tester won 50 – 47.
……11. Incumbent Bob Menendez of New Jersey. 538 shows him as having a 92% chance of being reelected. Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 7.2% in the polls. ……The only impediment to this son of Cuban immigrants, foreign policy expert getting reelected is scandals. A prostitution scandal went away when the women admitted they were paid by Menendez’ opponents to lie. A corruption scandal went away when the Supreme Court changed the definition of criminal corruption. His opponent, a pharmaceutical entrepreneur and executive, has made a dent as he tries to make himself preferable, but a small dent.
Bob Menendez won 53 – 44.
……12. Incumbent Joe Manchin of West Virginia. 538 shows him as having an 86% chance of being reelected. Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 9.4% in the polls.
……One impediment to his getting reelected is the deeply Republican character of West Virginia, an impediment which he has overcome in the past. Another is the effort by progressive Democrats (Is the effort really sponsored by Republicans or Jill Stein or the Russians — who can we believe these days?) to punish him for his vote in support of confirming Bret Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. His opponent, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, rests his case on being a reliable supporter of President Trump. …
Joe Manchin won 50 – 46.
…13. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. 538 sees her as having a 97% chance of getting reelected. Real Clear Politics shows her ahead by an average of 10.7% in the polls. Attacking her for being gay appears to be ineffective.
Tammy Baldwin won 55 – 45.
……14. Incumbent Sherrod Brown of Ohio. 538 sees him as having a 96% chance of getting reelected. Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 16% in the polls.
Sherrod Brown won 54 – 47.
……15. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania. 538 sees him as having a 97% chance of getting reelected. Real Clear Politics shows him ahead by an average of 16% in the polls.
Bob Casey Jr. won 56 – 43.
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