Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website:
December 12th , 2023 Political Note #608 Kim Schrier Washington 08
2024 General Election
The 8th Congressional District was created in 1982 in response to Washington state’s growing population. The district is in northwest Washington state – both east and west of the Cascade Mountains. It has changed shape in every redistricting, but it has never been far enough north to reach the northern border. Nor has it ever been far enough west to reach the Pacific. Until 2018, it had never elected a Democrat.
Do you remember Dave Reichert? Do you remember Dino Rossi?
Dave Reichert was the Republican Congressman from Washington’s 8th Congressional District. Initially elected in November, 2004, he announced his retirement before the 2018 election, but served out his term. He was 68 at the time of his retirement. Kim Schrier’s candidacy has something to do with his retirement. Now he is the favorite for the Republican nomination for Governor
Dino Rossi was the Republican Kim Schrier defeated in 2018. A Realtor and a State Senator, he ran for Governor in 2004. Before the recount, he was leading by 261 votes. After the recount, he was leading by 42 votes. After the second recount, this time done by hand, the Democrat, Christine Gregoire was leading by 129 votes. After the law suit, she won by 133 votes.
In 2008, Dino Rossi ran for Governor again. This time Christine Gregoire won by a normal, but close margin – 53.2% to 46.8%. In 2010, Dino Rossi ran for the US Senate. The incumbent, Patty Murray, now President Pro-Tem of the US Senate, was reelected 52.1% to 47.
After the Senate race, Dino Rossi served briefly as an appointee to the State Senate in 2012. He then ran for what appeared to be a safe Republican Congressional seat in 2018. Kim Schrier was second in the top two multi-party primary with only18.7% of the vote. Dino Rossi got 43.1% of the vote. The run-off election was different. Kim Schrier won 52.4% to 47.6%
Attribute Kim Schrier’s presence in politics to the fight over health care. A pediatrician, she was disturbed by her Congressman. Dave Reichert said he would vote to overturn the Affordable Care Act. Kim Schrierpracticed medicine in the same town where Reichert had his district office. She met with him, urged him to oppose repeal, and came away disappointed and determined. She would run for Congress against him. By the time Dave Reichert had announced his planned retirement and actually voted against repeal of the Affordable Care Act, she was already a candidate.
Kim Schrier won that election in 2018, in part, because the district reacted adversely to an anti-Semitic advertisement that targeted her. The ad called her Dr. Tax and showed her holding fistfuls of $20 bills. She was seen as vulnerable in 2020 and 2022. Her closest race was 2020, when she won 51.7% to 48.2%.
It was not preordained that Kim Schrier would be a politician. It was not even preordained that she would be a doctor. She grew up in California. Her dad was a scientist; her mother a teacher. She was a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of California, Berkeley. Her degree was in astrophysics. She was unsure whether she would be a scientist. Her experience with childhood diabetes had led her to thoughts about becoming a pediatrician.
Kim Schrier took a gap year to think. She thought while she worked at the Environmental Protection Agency. She persuaded herself and went to medical school at the University of California, Davis. She did her residency at Stanford and joined a practice in Issaquah, Washington. By 2013, Parents Magazine had named her the Best Pediatrician in Greater Seattle. If it were not for the Republican push to repeal what is widely known as Obamacare, she would still be treating the children of Issaquah and environs.
Kim Schrier has been a practical Congresswoman, well suited to her rural and suburban district. She was comfortable in a place that had not voted for a Republican for President since 1988, but had consistently voted for Republican Members of Congress. Kim Schrier’s focus on health care plus the anti-Semitic advertisement won her the district.
Kim Schrier’s even handedness is displayed in how she recounts her bills that have been signed into law. She points to 8 that were signed by Trump, 6 that were signed by Biden. She might better divide them into health care bills and other. Among the health care bills are:
Support for health care workers saving for retirement
Reducing the cost of insulin through the use of a generic
No cost covid testing
Funding to support providing accurate information about vaccines
Ensuring there would not be Medicare cuts
Support for children’s access to mental health services.
Four of the “other” bills had a connection to health
Ensuring a reliable water supply for the State of Washington
Ensuring nutrition services access during the pandemic
Funding the prevention of child abuse
Increased WIC funding to access fruits and vegetables
The four remaining bills? They had to do with the local economy
Specialty crop research funding
Funding salmon and steelhead survival
Improvements of forest roads and waterways
Digitizing public land maps
What else does Kim Schrier emphasize about her views?
Public safety through support for the police and police use of body cams; support for mental health services.
More health issues ranging from ensuring reproductive rights to reducing health care costs.
Creating a context for inflation that includes corporate price gouging
Committee memberships show Kim Schrier has a serious interest in foreign affairs.
On the Armed Services Committee, she is the ranking member of the subcommittee on military personnel and is on the cyber and technologies subcommittee.
On the Foreign Affairs Committee, she is on the Indo-Pacific subcommittee and the oversight and accountability subcommittee.
Is Kim Schrier in danger in 2024? She is #32 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democrats in the House. She is tied for #22 on Daily Kos’s List. So far, she has one opponent.
If the Republicans had a normal political party, they would embrace Carmen Goers, the only Republican who has announced a candidacy for Washington’s 8th Congressional District. Goers is a Native America who earned her BA online from the University of Phoenix. She made good with that degree. She is a local banker. For 17 years she was with Wells Fargo, ultimately serving as Senior Relationship Manager. She worked for five years as Vice President for Commercial Banking at the Heritage Bank in Kent and has been a Client Solutions Manager for the hybrid Umpqua Bank serving Western Washington. She has volunteered with the Chamber of Commerce, for 7 years as a Board Member in Southwest King county, as the legislative Committee Chair for Kent County for 9 years. She also Chaired the Board of Directors for a Christian Academy.
Goers is closer to being a conventional Republican than someone from the extreme right wing. She wants lower taxes, schools that focus on basic education and do not reflect what she calls the Democrats’ culture wars. She supports school choice and urges a focus on human trafficking and missing and murdered indigenous people. She argues for better foster care and support for small businesses.
She probably has a story to tell about her success. She does not tell that story in her campaign website, in interviews, or elsewhere. Perhaps she does not talk about her experiences because her volunteering has extended beyond the Chamber of Commerce and her support of a Christian School. She supports women in prison and girls leaving foster care. Her work has been recognized with the award of a King’s County Martin Luther King Medal of Distinguished Service Award.
Right now, Carmen Goers is not a threat to the incumbent. The Republican Party has not embraced her. Kim Schrier has protected herself. By October 1, she was able to report $1.7 Million available for her campaign. Goer reported her funds were in the thousands. Donations to Kim Schrier will discourage serious fund raising on behalf of Carmen Goer. Keep that in mind as you consider making a DONATION TO KIM SCHRIER.
Support Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Recently President Obama said we must change the narrative regarding the presidential race. Help create a groundswell of support for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Add thousands or tens of thousands of small donors to President Biden’s campaign contributor list. The number of donors matters. The media pays attention to the number of donors because it reflects intensity of support for the candidate.
Make a small donation or a large one. Here is the link. https://joebiden.com/
=Multiply your impact. Send this message or the entire Political Note to everyone on your email contact list, your social media contacts. Talk to friends and family. Talk to groups that you are part of. Help this campaign grow into a force to be reckoned with.
House races in the Northwest and the Pacific. There are a lot of potentially close races.
Adam Gray in CA 13 is running against John Duarte, who is #2 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and #1 on Daily Kos’s List. With $200,000 in the bank on October 1, Adam Gray has to catch up with the incumbent who had $1.2 Million. DONATE TO ADAM GRAY. See Len’s Political Note #586
Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA 03 is #4 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and #2 on Daily Kos’s list of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. On October 1, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had $1.6 Million available for her campaign. Her previous opponent, right wing extremist Joe Kent had $400,000. Help her stay well ahead of him. DONATE TO MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ. See Len’s Political Note #543
Incumbent Andrea Salinas OR 06 is #6 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and tied for #22 on Daily Kos’s list. As of October 1, Andrea Salinas has $750,000 available for her campaign. Her probable opponent had less than $50,000. Help Andrea Salinas dominate this race. DONATE TO ANDREA SALINAS. See Len’s Political Note #548
Rudy Salas CA 22 is running against Incumbent Republican David Valadao who is #7 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and #3 on Daily Kos’s List. The incumbent had $1.2 Million on October 1 to Rudy Salas’s $150,000. Rudy Salas has some catching up to do. DONATE TO RUDY SALAS. See Len’s Political Note #602
Incumbent Jim Costa CA 21 is #14 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List. On October 1, Jim Costa had a modest $650,000, while his Republican opponent had $150,000. DONATE TO JIM COSTA. See Len’s Political Note #566
Will Rollins in CA 41 is running against Incumbent Republican Ken Calvert who is #17 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and tied at #19 on Daily Kos’s List. This promises to be a high spending race. The incumbent had $2 Million on October 1, Will Rollins had $1.5 Million. DONATE TO WILL ROLLINS. See Len’s Political Note #588
George Whitesides CA 27 will be the Democratic nominee against Mike Garcia, who is #19 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans, tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s List. Garcia’s good fortune may have run out in running against former CEO George Whitesides. On October 1, George Whitesides had a slight lead in the money race — $1.7 Million to $1.6 Million. Help him win this. DONATE TO GEORGE WHITESIDES
National Security Figure Jessica Morse will be the Democratic nominee for CA 03 against Republican first term incumbent Kevin Kiley who is #24 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans and tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s List. On October 1 Kiley had $1.5 Million available; Jessica Morse had a respectable $500,000. If she can ramp up her fund raising, she can flip this seat. Help Jessica Morse. DONATE TO JESSICA MORSE.
Incumbent Mike Levin CA 49 is #25 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and #25 on Daily Kos’s List. Mike Levin has some opponents raising money. He had $1 Million on October 1. One opponent had $900,000. Another had $800,000. DONATE TO MIKE LEVIN. See Len’s Political Note #591
Incumbent Kim Schrier WA 08 is #32 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and tied for #22 on Daily Kos’s List. She had $1.8 Million available on October 1. Her opponents had very little in the way of funds. Help her dominate this race. DONATE TO KIM SCHRIER
Incumbent Mary Peltola AK AL is #35 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and is #18 on Daily Kos’s List. On October 1, Mary Peltola had a substantial lead in the financial race with $1 Million. Her previous opponent had only $200,000. The Lt. Governor, Nancy Dahlstrom, however, had not yet entered the race for that reporting period. The addition of Dahlstrom and the complexities of Alaska’s system of ranked voting for the preliminary four leading candidates makes the whole process unpredictable. Help Mary Peltola dominate the race. DONATE TO MARY PELTOLA. See Len’s Political Note #600
Incumbent Val Hoyle OR 04 is #36 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List. Val Hoyle’s$400,000 on October 1 would seem anemic for an incumbent. However, her potential opponents’ fund raising was negligible. Help Val Hoyle dominate this race. DONATE TO VAL HOYLE.
The Big Senate race in the Northwest
Incumbent Jon Tester of Montana. See Len’s Political Note #550. With Joe Manchin no longer running for reelection, many see Jon Tester as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent and the place that Republican money will go. Jon Tester is prepared financially. On October 1, he had $13 Million available, ten times as much as Tim Sheehy his probable opponent who has enough money to make up the difference from his personal checkbook. Help Jon Tester stay ahead in this high dollar race. DONATE TO JON TESTER. See Len’s Political Note #550
Important Senate races in the Southwest
Arizona – Congressman Ruben Gallego. Five October polls, two of them funded by Republicans and one funded by Democrats find him more vulnerable in a three-way race including incumbent Kyrsten Sinema running as an independent. He seems less vulnerable in a two-way race against the probable Republican nominee former journalist Kari Lake. (Some polls also matched Ruben Gallego against multiple Republicans, but Lake performs best among the Republicans and there is a limit to the figures you or I can be expected to deal with).
2 – way races – Republican funded
Cygnal Gallego ahead of Lake by 3
McLaughlin Gallego ahead of Lake by 5
2 – way races – Democratic funded
PPP Gallego ahead of Lake by 5
2 – way races – Independently funded
Noble Gallego ahead of Lake by 6
National Gallego and Lake even
3 – way races – Republican funded
Cygnal Gallego behind by 1, Sinema at 15%
McLaughlin Gallego ahead by 4, Sinema at 17%
3 – way races – Democratic funded
PPP Gallego ahead by 5, Sinema at 15%
3 – way races – Independently funded
Noble Gallego ahead by 4, Sinema tied with Lake at 32%
National Gallego behind by 4, Sinema at 19%
The money race is different. Ruben Gallego had $5 million on October 1. Kyrsten Sinema had more — $10.8 million. Kari Lake reported no campaign funds available (she will raise plenty of money) while Mark Lamb reported a little more than $300 thousand. DONATE TO RUBEN GALLEGO. Len’s Political Note #544
Nevada – Jacky Rosen. An October Terrance Group Republican funded poll showed her leading likely opponent Sam Brown 45-40. Jacky Rosen began October with $8.8 million. Former Army Captain and former House candidate Sam Brown began with $940 thousand. He is working to catch up and has his own money. DONATE TO JACKY ROSEN. Len’s Political Note #564
Texas – Congressman Colin Allred v Incumbent Ted Cruz. There are no recent polls. A May 21 University of Texas at Tyler poll found Colin Allred trailing Cruz 42-37. A May 17 Texas Hispanic Foundation Poll found him trailing Cruz 47-40. Colin Allred has been an effective fund raiser and entered October with $7.9 million. He will need to spend a little of that to fend off State Senator Roland Guttierez in the primary. Although Colin Allred had more than Ted Cruz’s $5.7 on October 1, Cruz had already spent $35 million to keep his lead. We will see if the very early spending of these three vulnerable Republicans pays off or if the very early spending was profligate. DONATE TO COLIN ALLRED See Len’s Political Note #560
