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December 8th , 2023 Len’s Political Note #605 Joe Biden President, United States of America
2024 General Election
I have been writing Len’s Political Notes since early 2017. I began writing after standing still in the cold during the New York City version of the Women’s March. I thought I would spend my time better writing to support Democrats. I began urging readers to give money to elect Democrats and counteract Donald Trump.
To improve my writing, I take classes. I began at the New York Society Library and continued at the 92ndStreet Y. The classes I take begin with a prompt — a phrase or a word that can be responded to directly or can inspire an essay or can be ignored altogether. We write, send what we write to the instructor and the other students, and critique what we have written.
Shortly before my 82nd birthday in November, the prompt for one of our classes was “A Hero for Our Times.” Class members wrote about regular visits to a spouse with dementia, the folk singers from our past, a writer’s dad, another writer’s husband’s death, and the people who plug away at ordinary but essential jobs, One participant wrote a piece of fiction about a migrant. I wrote about Joe Biden, who is a little younger than I am.
Here is that piece revised. The revision is based on the advice I got from the instructor and my fellow students, further revised because I am writing to you and my purpose is to ask you to support Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. The piece is still further revised to reflect events. Do not forget. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN.
Make a small donation or a large one. Multiply your impact. Send this message or the entire Political Note to everyone on your email contact list, your social media contacts. Talk to friends and family. Talk to groups that you are part of. Help this campaign be a force to be reckoned with.
Len Lubinsky
Joe Biden, A Hero for Our Times
This is embarrassing, I wrote. I feel a little like I am in grade school. Asked about a hero, I chose the President.
He is a good choice, though. He is fighting villains. He is doing it as Clark Kent with different glasses.
Joe Biden is not Superman. He is not Nietzche’s Superman. He is certainly not a “Caesar with Christ’s soul.” Joe Biden is genial most of the time, he is ordinary, maybe a little garrulous, but a regular guy. Those aviator glasses are an effort to be distinctive. Somewhere, there is a desire to be a cop or a pilot.
A city councilor at 28, a US Senator at 30, he had every reason to think he was extraordinary – despite his personal and family tragedies. However often he tried, his next step up took a while. He became a 66 year old Vice President. He did not seem like a hero. No one would have described him as Superman.
I remember the nineteen sixties. Everyone was against the war. Or for it. By the time he was 28, Joe Biden had not taken a position for or against the Vietnam War. By the time he was 30, running for the Senate, he had a position. He criticized Richard Nixon’s handling of the war. Joe Biden took positions when he had to. Some hero.
I remember Joe Biden as head of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Thirty years after the sixties began, President George HW Bush nominated Clarence Thomas for the Supreme Court. Toward the end of the hearings, Anita Hill surfaced. She told us and the Committee about her sexual harassment by Thomas. Committee Chair Joe Biden hurried her along and rejected additional witnesses. Some hero.
In 2020, Joe Biden vanquished a villain. He defeated Donald Trump in the election. That was no ordinary victory. Trump denied he had lost. He sued whomever he could. He incited supporters to prevent Congress from counting the vote of the Electoral College.
Elected President of the United States, Joe Biden took positions and acted with dispatch. He was bold. He was effective. He acted quickly. Using executive orders, he rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement, rejoined the World Health Organization, revoked permits for the Keystone XL. Pipeline, required the use of face masks to combat Covid-19, and, as part of what I believe might be the only serious policy failure of his administration, ended the state of national emergency at the border with Mexico.
He got legislation passed. The $1.9 Trillion economic stimulus plan ensured there would be no Covid-19-based depression. Much of the American Rescue Plan was temporary. The child tax credit, the resurrection of which we can hope for, came close to ending child poverty in this country. The Inflation Reduction Act addressed deficit reduction, climate change, health care, and tax reform. It passed the Senate 51-50, Vice President Harris cast the deciding vote.
There was more. The CHIPS Act provided additional stimulus and supported domestic technology and manufacturing. The Respect for Marriage Act required acceptance of same-sex and interracial marriages. He helped Congress pass modest gun safety legislation. Atter the Supreme Court rejected his $400 Billion student loan waiver, he quietly developed a SAVE program which will provide students with substantial savings, savings that according to at least one analyst, could be in the neighborhood of $300 Billion. Joe Biden has been persistent in taking administrative actions and supporting legislation that makes America a more just society. The people who benefit will contribute to the success of the United States of America. They might vote Democratic or they might not.
Joe Biden has been persistent in taking administrative actions and supporting legislation that makes America a more just society. The people who benefit will contribute to the success of the United States of America. They might vote Democratic or they might not.
Foreign policy successes have been just that, successes. Joe Biden led the reconstruction of NATO which Trump had sought to dismantle. Joe Biden led Europe in opposition to the Russian villain – Vladimir Putin. As part of that success, the European countries have been spending more in their war effort on behalf of Ukraine plus refugee assistance than the United States has. Together, the NATO countries proved Trump wrong by doing more than their share.
Not everything Joe Biden did was heroic. Withdrawal from Afghanistan was strategically right, but tactically a mess. If he has an overall plan regarding immigration, he has not made it clear. The economic competition with China has had its ups and downs. Recently, when Joe Biden and Xi Jianping were meeting, we could see China’s economy in some disarray while Joe Biden’s United States is doing better than almost anywhere else in the world. Joe Biden is not pointing out the difference between the economies. He is working to make Xi not act like a villain.
During the Israel-Gaza hostilities Joe Biden became a hero in Israel. Israelis recognize how crucial his support of Israel is; how important his role has been in getting the hostages out of Gaza. Those who see Palestinians as the victims of Israeli colonialism do not see him the same way.
Joe Biden shares Israel’s intention to vanquish the Hamas villains who were cruelly successful on October 7. He shares Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of defeating and defanging Hamas. He is biding his time before the villainous Netanyahu, who had supported Hamas to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, is no longer Israel’s Prime Minister. If he has to, Joe Biden might find a way. He is, after all, the most popular politician in Israel where more than 70% of the voters want Netanyahu gone as soon as the war is over.
The Biden administration has not been able to insulate the president from Republican name calling. The Republicans have mastered the ability to mock distinguished people who belong to vulnerable groups – women, racial minorities, religious minorities, the elderly. They have been mocking Joe Biden as physically and mentally deteriorated. Notwithstanding that mockery, Joe Biden has demonstrated extraordinary stamina in lengthy trips abroad (unlike a former Republican president, not Trump, who capped a 12-day trip by fainting at dinner and vomiting onto a Prime Minister). One commentator described Joe Biden’s work with Xi Jianping and the subsequent press conference as definitive proof that Joe Biden is intellectually on top of his game. Xi, a potentially dangerous villain, has become, at least temporarily, a mere competitor.
Joe Biden is not the most popular politician in the United States. He has, however been effective. Improving the country domestically, confronting villains internationally and domestically. He will probably confront the villainous Donald Trump again in 2024.
Because Joe Biden is not Superman, he cannot win the election on his own. He needs your help. Donate as much as you feel you can. And then make that same donation every month. The second most important weapon in politics is money. The most important weapon? Having the right story to tell. Joe Biden can tell a story about leading the country effectively through dangerous times. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN
Help Joe Biden have a Democratic Senate after he is re-elected in 2024.
The two most vulnerable Incumbent Democrats
Jon Tester of Montana An October Emerson College Poll showed him leading former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy 39-35. Jon Tester began October with $13 million in cash; Sheehy had $1.1 million. Sheehy’s Net Worth will allow him to help himself. DONATE TO JON TESTER. See Len’s Political Note #550
Sherrod Brown of Ohio A November Emerson College Poll showed. him leading Businessman Bernie Moreno 42-32, Secretary of State Frank La Rose 41 – 36, and former State Senator and Gubernatorial candidate Matt Dolan 41-38. Sherrod Brown entered October with $11.2 million. Matt Dolan began the month with $6.7 million, Bernie Moreno with $5 million, and Frank La Rose with $870 thousand. DONATE TO SHERROD BROWN. See Len’s Political Note #556
Two Open Democratic seats which are vulnerable, in part, because open seats are more vulnerable than seats which have incumbents
Congressman Ruben Gallego of Arizona. Five October polls, two of them funded by Republicans and one funded by Democrats find him more vulnerable in a three-way race including incumbent Kyrsten Sinema running as an independent. He seems less vulnerable in a two-way race against the probable Republican nominee former journalist Kari Lake. (Some polls also matched Ruben Gallego against multiple Republicans, but Lake performs best among the Republicans and there is a limit to the figures you or I can be expected to deal with).
2 – way races – Republican funded poll
Cygnal Gallego ahead of Lake by 3
McLaughlin Gallego ahead of Lake by 5
2 – way races – Democratic funded poll
PPP Gallego ahead of Lake by 5
2 – way races – Independently funded poll
Noble Gallego ahead of Lake by 6
National Gallego and Lake even
3 – way races – Republican funded poll
Cygnal Gallego behind by 1, Sinema at 15%
McLaughlin Gallego ahead by 4, Sinema at 17%
3 – way races – Democratic funded poll
PPP Gallego ahead by 5, Sinema at 15%
3 – way races – Independently funded poll
Noble Gallego ahead by 4, Sinema tied with Lake at 32%
National Gallego behind by 4, Sinema at 19%
The money race is different. Ruben Gallego had $5 million on October 1. Kyrsten Sinema had more — $10.8 million. Kari Lake reported no campaign funds available (she will raise plenty of money) while Mark Lamb reported a little more than $300 thousand. DONATE TO RUBEN GALLEGO. See Len’s Political Note #544
Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin of Michigan
The most recent polls are from August. An EPIC-MRA poll showed her leading former Congressman Mike Rogers 42-37. An Emerson College polls showed her leading him 44-38. Against other currently announced candidates, the Emerson College poll found her leading former Detroit police chief James Craig 45-38 and State Board of Education Member Nikki Snyder 44-36. Elissa Slotkin entered October with $5.1 million. Former Congressman Mike Rogers entered October with just under $800 thousand. No other candidates had significant funds DONATE TO ELISSA SLOTKIN. See Len’s Political Note #589
Other vulnerable incumbent Democrats
Jacky Rosen of Nevada. An October Terrance Group Republican funded poll showed her leading likely opponent Sam Brown 45-40. Jacky Rosen began October with $8.8 million. Former Army Captain and former House candidate Sam Brown began with $940 thousand. He is working to catch up and has his own money. DONATE TO JACKY ROSEN. See Len’s Political Note #564
Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania. Three October polls, respectively from Franklin & Marshall College, Emerson College, and Quinnipiac University found him leading Businessman and Former Gubernatorial candidate David McCormick 46-39, 41-33, and 50-44. Bob Casey Jr entered October with $7.4 million. McCormick reported no campaign funds to start October. Reports show McCormick’s net worth at more than $116 million, maybe substantially more. He will work to catch up DONATE TO BOB CASEY JR. See Len’s Political Note #581
Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. There are no recent polls. A Republican funded poll by Fabrizio, Lee in May showed her leading Congressman Mike Gallagher, who is not a candidate, 47-46. Tammy Baldwin began October with $6.8 million. No potential opponent had more than a few thousand dollars. Help keep potential Republican candidates out of the race. DONATE TO TAMMY BALDWIN. See Len’s Political Note #570
Democrats who could flip a Republican Senate Seat
Here are three possibilities for flipping a Republican seat.
Florida – Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell v Incumbent Rick Scott A June Democratic funded poll on behalf of now Congressional candidate Phil Ehr (He withdrew from the Senate race in favor of Debbie Mucarsel-Powell) found him behind Scott 45-41. As of October 1, Incumbent Rick Scott had already spent more than $12 million on his campaign and still had $3 million available. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell had $1 million. Scott is a billionaire; Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has a record of being an excellent fund raiser. DONATE TO DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL See Len’s Political Note #597
Missouri – Attorney and National Security Expert Lucas Kunce v Incumbent Josh Hawley. An October 31 independently funded poll found Lucas Kunce trailing Hawley 42-46, but an early October Emerson College poll found Lucas Kunce double digits behind. Lucas Kunce entered October with $1.7 million available to spend. Democratic County Prosecutor Wesley Bell had $88 thousand. Hawley had already spent $13 million and had $4.7 million available. Do not quit on this race. DONATE TO LUCAS KUNCE. See Len’s Political Note #538
Texas – Congressman Colin Allred v Incumbent Ted Cruz. There are no recent polls. A May 21 University of Texas at Tyler poll found Colin Allred trailing Cruz 42-37. A May 17 Texas Hispanic Foundation Poll found him trailing Cruz 47-40. Colin Allred has been an effective fund raiser and entered October with $7.9 million. He will need to spend a little of that to fend off State Senator Roland Guttierez in the primary. Although Colin Allred had more than Ted Cruz’s $5.7 on October 1, Cruz had already spent $35 million to keep his lead. We will see if the very early spending of these three vulnerable Republicans pays off or if the very early spending was profligate. DONATE TO COLIN ALLRED. See Len’s Political Note #560
One more for the hell of it
Tennessee – State Rep Gloria Johnson v Incumbent Marsha Blackburn. An October poll showed Incumbent Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn ahead of State Representative Gloria Johnson 43 – 27. Gloria Johnson has a little money to spend. She had $1.2 million on October 1. She has less than Incumbent Marsha Blackburn, of course, who had $6.5 million on that date. If you have enough money left after supporting the vulnerable Democrats and the insurgents in places that some pundits think could flip a Republican seat, consider Gloria Johnson. When the Tennessee House expelled two Black Representatives from the legislature, they missed expelling Gloria Johnson by a single vote – all for protesting for gun safety on the House floor along with people in the gallery. Marsha Blackburn could easily join Ted Cruz Josh Hawley, and Rick Scott as a Rogue’s Gallery of terrible US Senators. DONATE TO GLORIA JOHNSON.
One last comment
In both Missouri and Tennessee, I have suggested supporting white candidates when there were African Americans. In both cases, the decision about who to support came down to money available for a campaign. Wesley Bell is a county prosecutor in St. Louis County, Missouri. According to the FEC, he had reported no fund raising, though he did have a modest campaign fund. Marquita Bradshaw is an environmental activist who focuses particularly on the environmental in low-income areas. She ran for the Senate in Tennessee in 2022. The FEC indicates she, too, provided no fund-raising report for October 1. I urged support for Lucas Kunce in Missouri and Gloria Johnson in Tennessee. Each of them reported more than a million dollars available on October 1 for their campaigns.
