The special election tidbit will get updated occasionally. Special elections were clues in 2017 and 2018? Are they clues now? It is early.
So far the special election results are not positive. A Minnesota state Senate seat flipped from Democrat to Republican. In the preliminary round of a Texas House seat, two Republicans are finalists – with a Republican margin that is 20 points higher than in the 2018 presidential election margin. In a Virginia House seat special election, the Democrat won with 60% of the vote, matching Barack Obama’s percent in 2012. The result was 5 points lower than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 9 points lower than the elected Delegate in 2017. February ended badly in Connecticut where Democrats lost two of the five Dem held seats up for special election.
The two Connecticut House seats were flipped in seats vacated so the incumbents could work for the new Governor. These losses resemble the Minnesota loss. None of this is encouraging.