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October 1st , 2024 Len’s Political Note #675 Val Hoyle Oregon 04
2024 General Election
I did a little review of Congressional races. In particular, I was looking for Republicans who had created enough trouble for themselves so that, even if they would not ordinarily be in jeopardy, this year because of that trouble, a Democrat could win. The first candidate I came across was not a Republican at all. Democratic incumbent Val Hoyle has a problem to deal with. The problem began, in a way, in 2014, when Oregon became the fourth state to legalize the use of marijuana.
Val Hoyle was elected to Congress in 2022. She took office in January 2023. Before that she was Oregon’s elected Labor Commissioner. She served in that role from January 2019 to January 2023. In August 2022, the Bureau of Labor and Industries, which the Labor Commissioner oversees, awarded a $550,000 grant to a brand new non-profit ENDVR to create an apprenticeship program to train laboratory workers to extract chemical compounds from the cannabis plant (the source of marijuana).
The grant was one of ten awarded, the largest in that cycle of grant awards; the other nine were to established educational institutions. Rosa Cazares was the founder of ENDVR. Rosa Cazares and Aaron Mitchell, an unmarried couple with a child, are co-founders of the Oregon marijuana dispensary chain La Mota.
The La Mota has had some financial troubles. In March 2023, Willamette Week reported that there were $3 million in outstanding state and federal tax liens against Cazares and Mitchell, many unpaid bills, and 30 lawsuits filed against them. Cazares communicated frequently with Val Hoyle. They texted about La Mota, about bills before the legislature, and about letters of recommendation that Cazares was asking Val Hoyle to write. Furthermore, Cazares and Mitchell donated just under $6,000 to Val Hoyle’s congressional campaign in 2022. Val Hoyle has returned that money.
Val Hoyle was far from the only recipient of the couple’s largesse. Tina Kotek, now governor of Oregon, received $68,000 in campaign funds. Shemia Fagan, who resigned as Secretary of State, received $45,000. The former Secretary of State resigned from office after it became known that she had taken a consulting job with La Mota while the audit division, which is part of the Secretary of State’s office, worked on an audit of the Liquor and Cannabis Commission. Christina Stephenson, the current Labor Commissioner, revoked the training grant to La Mota. Except for just under $100,000 that had been spent, the balance of the funds was returned.
This scandal has been a focus for the Republican candidate for Oregon 04. Monique DeSpain, a graduate of Central Michigan University and Willamette University’s law school retired as a Colonel in 2019 after 30 years in the US Air Force with the Judge Advocate General’s office. In 2021, she began working part time at the Mannix Law Firm in Salem, Oregon. In 2023, she began a 10 month stint as General Counsel for Common Sense for Oregon. The organization has sued the governor on behalf of 47 businesses which have been “financially devasted” because of pandemic government shutdowns and has sued the governor for granting early release to 1,117 convicted felons.
DeSpain has been attacking Val Hoyle over the La Mota scandal since before she won the Republican primary. She claims Val Hoyle is under investigation by the FBI, a claim for which there is no evidence.
DeSpain has responded on other issues as well. She says the housing shortage is the product of excessive regulation of housing construction. She abhors the housing first approach to dealing with the homeless. Instead, she would focus on preventing drug use including recriminalizing drugs and recovery from addiction.
In an interview, she resisted acknowledging the reality of climate change and described herself as an advocate for “energy choice.” She insisted that she would not work to change national reproductive laws – presumably that would be opposition to either a national ban on abortion or on enacting a national right to the procedure. As for gun violence, she says she is an advocate for the individual right to self-protection under the 2ndamendment, but would separate the mentally ill from arms, which she believes requires no additional legislation.
The voters or Oregon 04 have a choice between Monique DeSpain and the incumbent Val Hoyle. Will they punish Val Hoyle for her peripheral involvement in the La Mota scandal or will they take another look at who she is?
Val Hoyle is a graduate of two schools in Boston — Bunker Hill Community College and Emmanuel College. She grew up in New Hampshire where her dad was a fireman, a union leader, and, for a time, one of the 400 members of the New Hampshire House of Representatives. Also an activist, her mom worked in favor of the 1972 proposed Equal Right Constitutional Amendment. Twenty-five years ago, Val Hoyle moved her family to work for a non-profit and to continue her work in the international bicycle industry. In 2009, she was appointed to fill a vacancy in the Oregon House of Representatives. In 2014, she was elected House Majority Leader. A year later, she resigned to run for Secretary of State, but came in second in the primary. In 2018, she was elected Labor Commissioner and in 2022 was elected to Congress.
While Val Hoyle generally voted with the Biden administration, Wikipedia notes three exceptions in 2023. She supported a Republican effort to lift vaccine mandates for health workers. She supported a bill to direct the President to remove troops from Syria. And she voted against the final passage of the bipartisan compromise that temporarily lifted the debt limit. The most distinguishing part of her political commitment has been her long-time and personal commitment to unions and union membership.
Val Hoyle begins the issues section of her campaign website with her commitment to supporting the environment and dealing with climate change. She notes her membership on the Natural Resources Committee and points out her legislative proposal – the Southwestern Oregon Watershed and Salmon Protection Act. She adds that as a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee she can help oversee the implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act toward an end of improved wages and working conditions for infrastructure workers and to ensure that the transportation needs of Oregon 04’s distinctive, coastal character be addressed appropriately in that enormous, national legislaton.
If I were a voter in Oregon 04, contemplating Val Hoyle’s error in getting too close to someone from a regulated industry versus her values and her practicality in seeking to use Congressional levers both for good and for the interests of her district, I would, by far, prefer her to her extreme right wing opponent. Not only would I vote for her, I would donate to her campaign. Even from a distance across the continent, I would invest in her campaign. And in this newsletter, I would, that is, I do encourage readers to help Val Hoyle get reelected. She is facing her critics, sitting for interviews, defending her politics and acknowledging her error. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Congressional candidates to support in the northwest
Alaska AL
Formerly a judge in a tribal court and executive director of an inter-tribal fish commission, in a special election in 2022, Mary Peltola was the beneficiary of Alaska’s first use of its top four non-partisan primary and ranked voting among those top four election. Republicans were sufficiently divided that Mary Peltola received enough second place votes to be elected. The dynamic may be different in 2024 as she faces Nick Begich III, a relatively unpopular Republican and two unknown candidates. A Begich funded poll published on September 1 found Mary Peltola leading by a point. As of July 31, she had a substantial financial lead — $2.8 million to $200,000. She’ll need all the help she can get to win for a third time in overwhelmingly Republican Alaska. DONATE VOLUNTEER.
Montana 01
An attorney and a former Olympic rower Montana Public Service Commission staffer, Monica Tranel has run a unsuccessfully in very Republican Montana – twice to be elected to the Public Service Commission and once, in 2022, for the Montana 01 Congressional seat. She lost, in 2022, to Ryan Zinke, who had served as Secretary of the Interior under Donald Trump and was fired by Trump after an ethics investigation by the Interior Department’s Office of Inspector General. Convinced that she can do better than her 46.5 to 49.6 loss, Monica Tranel is running again against now incumbent Ryan Zinke. Two polls published on August 29, one of them funded by Monica Tranel, found her trailing by 2 points. On June 30, she was behind financially in this expensive House race — $3.1 million to $2.1 million. Help her do well enough to win. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Oregon 05
An engineer for General Motors, Janelle Bynum was on a business trip to Taiwan on 9/11 and was unable to get home for a week. She and her husband decided to stop traveling. They responded to his mother’s request for help with her chain of McDonald’s franchises. They settled in. He made sure the physical plants operated. She handled the rest. Then she ran for state rep, defeating Republican Lori Chavez DeRemer. She did it again. Now she is running to unseat Lori Chavez DeRemer from the Congressional seat she won in 2022. DeRemer strives to appear bipartisan. She has joined a small group of Republicans pledging to support the results of the 2024 presidential election. She joined in a bi-partisan housing proposal in Congress. And she has no issues page at all in her campaign website. Janelle Bynum does have an issue page on her website. Top of her list is addressing housing affordability, partly by reducing red tape for home construction. Addressing homelessness through expanding shelter capacity and mental health services is her second priority. Her third issue is addressing climate change, noting that in the state legislature she led efforts to move Oregon to reliance on clean energy. Not on the top of the list, but not unimportant as a differentiator from her opponent, Janelle Bynum says women’s health care decisions should be their own and not made by politicians like Lori Chavez DeRemer. An August 28 poll found Janelle Bynum leading by 2 points. On June 30, after a demanding primary, Janelle Bynum was trailing in the financial race — $2,4 million to $1 million. DONATE. VOLUNTEER. Help Janelle Bynum win this election.
Washington 03
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is the daughter of an evangelical pastor who had immigranted from Mexico and a mother with deep Anglo roots in the state of Washington. Famously, after she graduated from Reed College, she and her husband operated an automobile repair garage. Marie also had political interests. She lost race for County Commissioner in 2016 and a race of public utility commissioner in 2018. Beginning in 2020, she served on the state party Executive Committee and as a member of a soil and water district board. In 2022, the website 538 gave her a 2% chance of winning her race for Congress against extreme right candidate Joe Kent. She won by a margin of .8%. In Congress, She describes herself as a supporter of abortion rights and second amendment rights and an opponent of extremism. Dueling polls funded by the candidates back in June found the race even. The financial race is not even. On July 17, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez reported having $3.8 million. On August 21, Joe Kent reported $600,000. Help Marie Gluesenkamp Perez finish as a winner. DONATE. VOLUNTEER
Washington 08
Though Kim Schrier graduated from the University of California at Berkeley Phi Beta Kappa with her degree in astrophysics and could have become a high flying scientist, she chose to become a pediatrician instead. She practiced in Issaquah, earned recognition as an outstanding practitioner, and grew disturbed at the possibility that Donald Trump and her Congressman, Dave Reichart (who retired then and is now the Republican candidate for governor) would abolish the Affordable Care Act. That possibility spurred Kim Schrier to activism and then to candidacy for the Washington’s eighth Congressional district. She won by 5 points; won again in 2020 by 3.5%, and won again in 2022 by 7 points. Somehow, though, no pundit and certainly not the incumbent has bee confident she would win. True again in 2024 as she gears up to face a banker this time, Carmen Goers. Kim Schrier describes her accomplishments: 3,019 constituents helped, $19 million brought back to the district, 14 bills passed. Eight of them, including no cost testing for Covid, were signed into law by Trump. Six of them, including support for children’s access to mental health care, were signed into law by Joe Biden. There are no polls for this race. On July 17, Kim Schrier had $3.3 million. Carmen Goers is a late entrance and did not report for July. If you are still worried, DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
The big worry is the Montana Senate Race. It is the second most important election this November after the Presidential race
The most important election is the presidential race. Sometimes, it seems as if the fate of the world rests on Kamala Harris and Tim Walz being elected. Not sometimes. All the time.
If Kamala Harris is going to be an effective president, she will need a House and Senate that will work with her; a House and a Senate with a Democratic majority. Helping Val Hoyle and the other Democrats listed above will go a long way toward ensuring a Democratic majority. As for a Democratic Senate, the election of Jon Tester in Montana could ensure a Democratic, 50-50 majority.
There are other Democratic incumbents who could lose in November. Sherrod Brown of Ohio is a possibility. Pundits mention five others. And there are Republicans who could lose in November. Pundits rarely mention Nebraska and are skeptical about Democrats winning in Texas or Florida.
And it is true, that it by the end of the election, Kamala Harris will probably win. According to USA Today, the Polymarket betting index on September 19 gave Kamala Harris a 52% chance of winning. Similarly, Newsweek reports, around the same time, that Northwestern University’s Thomas Miller, using a betting index he calls Predictic, has Harris at a 55% chance of winning. Neither show much of a probability, but I would rather be on her side of 50%.
If, however, you were predicting a sweep of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House, Miller’s scheme suggests the Republicans have better odds. Not high odds. Certainly not better than 50%. And that is because of Montana. If Democrats are going to beat the odds, they need Jon Tester to win the Montana race. Three August polls show the Republican Tim Sheehy leading by 5, 7, and 8 points. One August poll shows Jon Tester leading by 5 points. One of the Sheehy polls was paid for by Sheehy. Another, though paid for independently was undertaken by a typically Republican pollster. It is hard to judge the financial race. The last required report was June 30. Back then Jon Tester led $10.9 million to $3.3 million. Sheehy is a millionaire; Tester is not. Sheehy can come up with whatever money he needs.
Despite the odds, the Republican candidate is capable of beating himself. He lies. He began his campaign with a false story about a bullet injury. Most recently, he was caught altering the video used for an advertisement. Help Jon Tester tell and retell his story. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
More thoughts on the Senate
The next most vulnerable:
Ohio Sherrod Brown. September polls are close. Brown leads in four polls by between 1 and 5 points. But one poll has Bernie Moreno up by 2 points. DONATE to Sherrod Brown. Keep him in the lead.
Senate seats that can be flipped
Nebraska. Independent Dan Osborn. No polls in September. Three polls in August. All with the incumbent Deb Fischer leading by one or two points. This is winnable for union leader Dan Osborn. DONATE
Texas Congressman Colin Allred. September polls vary. Three have Incumbent Ted Cruz leading by between one and five points. However, on September 16, the first poll to have Colin Allred leading showed up. Colin Allred could win this. DONATE.
Former Florida Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. September polls have her as close as a point behind, as far behind as eight. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could make this a race, could even win. DONATE. Just imagine. Flip three Republican seats.
WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
As we look toward November, 2024, we see a brand new campaign. The odds of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz winning the election have become slightly better. You can make those odds even better. Help with a donation. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ. VOLUNTEER
