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June 28th , 2023 Political Note #570 Tammy Baldwin Wisconsin Senator
2024 General Election
If the election were held today, Tammy Baldwin would win. We can be confident of that even though, in 2022, the incumbent Republican Senator held his seat. Not by a lot, of course. By 26,718 votes – approximately 1% of the total vote. Tammy Baldwin would win today because she would not have an opponent. No Republican has yet announced his or her candidacy.
Even though Tammy Baldwin will undoubtedly have an opponent in 2024, the election that year will be different from 2022. Energized Democrats elected a Supreme Court Justice on April 4th this year. It is possible, that, by 2024, the Wisconsin Supreme Court will have revised the Congressional map and the state legislative map. That kind of change will get Democrats out to vote.
Consider what gerrymandered districting has done:
- In this evenly divided state, there are 6 Republican Members of Congress, 2 Democrats.
- In this evenly divided state, there are 63 Republican Members of the State Assembly, 35 Democratic Members of the State Assembly, and one vacancy.
- In this evenly divided state, there are 21 Republican Members of the State Senate, 11 Democratic Members of the State Senate, and one vacancy.
If the Court requires redistricting that gets done quickly or if the Court redistricts itself through the use of a Special Master, Democrats will turn out enthusiastically to gain control of these legislative delegations. That kind of turnout would be a help to Tammy Baldwin.
We cannot count on a Democratic victory. While two Republican Members of Congress, Bryan Steil and Mike Gallagher, have opted out of the US Senate race, there are still ten or more Republicans who are potential candidates. Some of them have money. Some of them can raise money. If and when Wisconsin Republicans get themselves together for this race, they will have a chance to flip this seat.
Tammy Baldwin has her own story to tell no matter who the Republicans run. Raised by her grandparents because her father was gone and her mother was addicted to opioids, she was, nevertheless, a student. Her grandfather was a biochemist. Her grandmother was at home. Tammy Baldwin was valedictorian at her high school. With honors in hand, she left for Smith College in Northampton, Massachusetts.
Tammy Baldwin was in an all-women’s school in the 1980s. The school itself and those who attended it were struggling with their identity. Not that much earlier, Smith was focused on gentility. There were dress codes for dinner, dress codes for afternoon teas. By the late 70s, the Gay Alliance was becoming an important organization at Smith. The feminist movement and support for the LGBTQ community were tremendous factors for the young Tammy Baldwin.
In 2014, the year of Tammy Baldwin’s 30th college reunion, she was interviewed on campus. Dozens, maybe hundreds of alumnae from the early 1980s were interviewed. Tammy Baldwin explained that she came out as a Lesbian in her junior year; that coming out was gradual – first to herself and then to others. Despite the lack of role models and the negative stereotypes of the time, she was fortunate, she said, that the process of coming out was a positive experience.
After graduating from Smith, she returned to Madison, partly driven by the most ordinary family reasons. Her grandfather had died while she was away from college; her grandmother was on her own. Tammy Baldwin felt an obligation to be available and to be helpful.
She took a little time, worked for the Governor on pay equity, then went to law school at the University of Wisconsin. In her interview, she contrasted the conventional approach to politics of her grandparents – voting in every election, writing to their Congressmen with the movement approach to politics she experienced at Smith. She went on marches, attended speeches, and organized criticism of the school administration. In Madison, she connected with Smith alumnae for advice about how to proceed with her political ambitions – not at all certain that it would be possible as an openly gay woman.
While still at law school, against the advice of the faculty Tammy Baldwin consulted, she ran for and was elected to the County Board of Supervisors. She was still in that role ten years after her graduation from Smith. Her Smith connections and connections with other progressive politicians helped her step by step.
Her state rep decided to run for higher office, contacted her, encouraged her to run to take his place. She won the primary and the election. When she was interviewed at her Smith reunion, she described her uncertainty about running for and serving in the state assembly. She did not connect her lack of confidence to being a woman or being gay. She described it as entirely personal.
Tammy Baldwin had a similar experience in her move to Congress. Again, she had an attack of humility when a former candidate told her that the Republican incumbent was considering retirement. She was 35, still uncertain, but more confident than she had been when invited to run for the Assembly. She took on the challenge and thought about how she could have an impact in Congress.
The first woman elected to national office from Wisconsin, the first openly gay person to be elected to Congress, the elections were not easy. She won by 6 points in her first run, by 2 points in her second, and then grew more comfortable in Congress as redistricting made WI 02 more Democratic. In Congress, she teamed with Barney Frank to create the LGBTQ+ Equality Caucus. Among the things she learned while in Congress was how to raise money.
With the 2012 election coming up and Democratic Senator Herbert Kohl retiring, she announced her candidacy for the US Senate. She had no Democratic opponents and raised $12 million for the campaign — $5 million more than her Republican opponent. The campaign was about her – not about her sexual orientation, though. Were her progressive views on job creation and health care “fresh new ideas” as described by the Capital Times? Or were they a “far left approach [that] leaves this country in jeopardy” as claimed by her opponent, former Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson?
Now that she is running for her third term, she is established in the Senate. Tammy Baldwin is Chair of the Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies and Chair of the Communications and Media Committee’s Subcommittee on Oceans, Fisheries, Climate Change, and Manufacturing. She can have an impact on the country and the world.
As established as Tammy Baldwin is, she is progressive enough so that sometimes she gets what she wants and sometimes she does not.
Consider bits of her history on health care, taxes, and the economy.
- In 2015, she told an interviewer that she, the Pope, and Donald Trump were opposed to the carried interest tax loophole. She may have been wrong about Donald Trump. Hedge fund managers still don’t pay regular taxes on carried interest.
- In 2017, she opposed Trump’s so-called tax reform. Nevertheless, the reform passed. She was accused of being against her constituents getting jobs. She has supported Joe Biden’s plans for recovery from Covid and for the future. Unemployment is now low throughout the country. In the middle of 2023, Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is 2.4%
- In 2019, she joined with others to call on OSHA to do a better job of ensuring worker safety, in particular to address attacks on McDonald’s employees. These days OSHA seems to be doing its job. It fined a Kewaunee County, Wisconsin plant $250,000 after an employee’s leg was crushed.
- In 2021, she urged support for Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan – make the super wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share of taxes so working families can pay less, invest in early childhood education and child care, lower the cost of health care, home care, and prescription drugs, and create more clean energy jobs and a renewable energy economy that addresses the climate crisis. Much of this plan has become law – bit certainly not all.
- By 2023, we have nibbled a little bit at higher taxes for the wealthy, got nowhere on early childhood education and childcare, made some progress on reducing health care costs. Tammy Baldwin can claim some responsibility for the bill to cap insulin prices for seniors at $35 per month. She would like to make that cap for everyone. She has authored the Women’s Health Protection Act which would guarantee access to abortion everywhere in the country. She and we would need a different Congress to pass that proposal.
Democrats compromise less with Tammy Baldwin representing Wisconsin. Democrats need her more at a time when we cannot be certain that Democrats will retain control of the Senate, regain control of the House, and keep their hold on the Presidency. By her presence in the Senate, she sustains a position in the American culture war. She is also a spokesperson for policies ranging from combatting climate change to supporting mothers and children. We need her voice. We need her presence. Donate what you can.
Three Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents
Jon Tester, Montana is the most vulnerable Democrat of those who have announced. Some Montana Republicans attempted to change Montana’s election system – just for the US Senate and just for 2024, hoping to create a forced choice for Libertarians and those who prefer independent candidates. Montana Republicans think that the Libertarians and the independents allowed Jon Tester to be elected even though he did not have a majority of the vote. Len’s Political Note #550.
Jacky Rosen, Nevada may be the most vulnerable US Senator in Nevada. Her colleague, Catherine Cortez Masto, was elected in 2022 by 7,928 votes. Originally elected to Congress with two things going for her, experience as a synagogue president and Harry Reid’s support, Jacky Rosen was elected to the US Senate after a single term in Congress on the strength of her capacity to listen to, support, and gain influence with her colleagues. Give her the help she needs. Len’s Political Note #564
Sherrod Brown, Ohio is the second most vulnerable Democrat of those who have announced. He brings a blue-collar persona to a state that has recently been electing Republicans. We don’t know who his opponent will be; but we know that Sherrod Brown has only lost once running for office in Ohio. Help him win this time. Len’s Political Note #556
Three Democratic insurgents who can win.
Ruben Gallego, Arizona will be the Democratic nominee for the US Senate. Kyrsten Sinema, the now erratic independent incumbent up for election, complicates matters but will not dominate the contest. A Republican nominee will make this a three-way race. Ruben Gallego can make this into a race pitting himself as a reasonable Democrat, against an erratic independent, and an extreme Republican. He wins that kind of contest. Help him tell his story and win in November. Len’s Political Note #544
Lucas Kunce, Missouri will be the Democratic nominee for the US Senate. He lost the nomination for US Senate in the Democratic primary to an heiress in 2022. Not unlike Sherrod Brown, he is a champion of blue collar workers from his state and an advocate for corporate accountability. After Colin Allred, he is the Democrats’ next best chance to flip a Republican Senate seat. Help him do that. Len’s Political Note #538
Colin Allred, Texas may have a primary opponent, a State Senator from Uvalde who is focused, understandably, on gun safety. Nevertheless, former Baylor and NFL football player with a law degree from Berkeley is a well-regarded member of Congress who grew up in and now represents Dallas. Making a case for himself as a moderate Democrat, he has a real chance to defeat Ted Cruz, the most disliked member of the Senate. Len’s Political Note #560.
