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January 12, 2023    Political Note #531  Democrats and the Republican Congress

Kevin McCarthy was elected Leader by the Republicans Members of the House of Representatives.  The House voted 15 times to finally get him the majority of those present and voting needing for him to be elected.  Until McCarthy completing his acquiescence to the far right Gang of 20, most of the votes looked like this:

Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York      212

Republican Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California  202

One or more other Republicans                                          20

Kevin McCarthy spent most of the four days that consumed the House of Representatives negotiating with the 20 holdout Republicans in order to get his majority vote.  He negotiated a lot away.  Here are the rules that were voted on plus references to what we know about a three page secret agreement that Kevin McCarthy is keeping from us and from his constituent Republicans.

  1. Not part of the Rules vote, but a not quite secret threat to use the debt limit as leverage for other purposes. There is no part of the upcoming confrontation between Republicans and Democrats more dangerous than the threat that this represents.  We all know the danger of giving in to blackmailers.  They come back for more and worse.  The worst looms.  Shutdown the government.  Default on the debt. Do great damage to the US and the world economy.
  2. One member of the majority party can initiate a motion to remove the Speaker
  3. Creation of new Select Committees or special projects for standing committees to investigate competition with China and the weaponization of the federal government against domestic opponents.
  4. A variety of rules to limit spending including
    1. 3/5 majority requirement for increased taxes
    2. Elimination of the rule that prohibits elimination of programs, firing federal employees, or reducing their pay
    3. Limitations on increases in mandatory spending such as social security or Medicare based
    4. Calculation rules that would make it easier cut taxes
    5. Considerable authority to the Chair of the Budget committee to exercise judgment about proposals that might increase spending.
    6. Mandates role for the Congressional Budget Office to project the effect of proposals that affect mandatory spending
    7. Not part of the Rules vote, but a secret agreement to keep spending at FU 2022 levels.
  5. Rules that slow the process of legislating down
    1. 72 hour notice of a vote.
    2. Restrict bills to a single topic
    3. Require budgets and budget votes for the 12 areas, rather than an omnibus budget
    4. Ease in offering amendments
    5. Possibility of setting a 2 minute limit to record votes
  6. Making it harder to run the Ethics Committee
    1. Term limits will remove most currently serving Democrats
    2. Require attorneys be hired within 30 days of a new Congress
    3. Process to receive complaints from the public
  7. Structural issues
    1. Prohibit proxy voting
    2. Reduce opportunities for Congressional staff to unionize
    3. Greater opportunity to submit amendments to bills
    4. Secret commitments beyond the Rules committee appointments for additional committee appointments for the Gang of 20 and their supporters.
  8. A fossil fuel focus
    1. Attempt to limit the President from using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
    2. Increase production of fuel on federal lands.
  9. Not part of the Rules vote, a more secret commitment to include three members of the Gang of 20 on the Steering committee
  10. Requirement that standing committees reduce programs in the areas on their jurisdiction.
  11. Abortion restrictions
  12. Not part of the Rules vote, but a commitment to have votes on a series of conservative issues from balanced budget requirement to congressional term limits to border security.

Some of these concessions will seem innocuous.  Taken as a whole, those concessions promise enormous struggles among Republicans as well between the Republicans and Democrats.  The consequences may be appealing to the Gang of 20.  They may be worth it to Kevin McCarthy.  Will they be worth it to the constituents of Republican Members of congress.

Consider the Republicans who won the closest Congressional races in 2020.  They will have to defend themselves.  Any one of them could have prevented this deal from taking place.  All they needed to do would have been to vote for another candidate for Speaker.  A small number of them could have prevented these concessions permanently.  Would they put country over party; maybe not that far over party.

Take a quick look at the 18 Republican Members of Congress who won by fewer than  20,000 votes in 2022.  They are vulnerable in 2024.  Can they defend themselves successfully? Will a disciplined Democratic party defeat all or some of these 21.  Four Californians, four New Yorkers, two Arizonans are more than half of them.  Two of the California districts – CA22 and CA 27 —  had unusually low turnout.  Only 7 of the 18 were incumbents who were reelected in 2022.

You will hear more from me as the Democratic opponents of these Republican incumbents become clear.  We want to support them as much as possible.  Winning these districts will be a big part of taking back the House of Representatives.  There are, of course, close Democratic winners to be protected.  That is particularly important because we know who the Democratic candidate is.  We can begin supporting the Democrat now.

  1. CO 03                 Inc Lauren Boebert
    1. Defeated Aspen City counselor and former currency trader Adam Frisch 50.08 – 49.92; by 546 votes. One the adamant right, her “present” vote, reducing the majority necessary to be elected, helped elect McCarthy.  Boebert was a restaurant owner who glorified guns, she defeated an incumbent in the primary in 2020.  She objected to electoral college results.
  1. NY 17 Michael Lawler
    1. Defeated incumbent Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Sean Patrick Maloney 50.32 – 49.68; by 1,820 votes. Lawler was a state assemblyman and former political communications professional.
  1. IA 03.                  Zach Nunn
    1. Defeated incumbent Democrat Cindy Axne 50.35 – 49.65; by 2,145 Nunn is an Air Force veteran with combat experience and international legislative experience.
  1. NY 22             Brandon Williams
    1. Defeated Francis Conole, a former Naval intelligence officer and Department of Defense advisor 50.9-49.51, by 2,631 votes. Williams was a Navy submarine officer and founder of a software company. ‘
  1. CA 22 Inc David Valadao
    1. Defeated former Bakersfield City Councilor and State Senator Rudy Salas 51.5-48.5, by 3,132 votes. Valadao has been winning close, low turnout elections since 2012.
  1. AZ 01                  Inc Dave Schweikart
    1. Defeated Jevin Hodge, Head of a Community Services Agency 50.44 – 49.56; by 3,195 Schweikart has been a member of Congress since 2008 and has been criticized for how he handled campaign funds by the Ethics Committee. He objected to electoral college results.
  1. NY 19                  Marc Molinaro
    1. Defeated Attorney Josh Riley, a legal advisor to Democrats in Florida and in Congress 50.8 – 49.2, by 4,495 Molinaro had been a County Executive.
  1. AZ 06. Juan Ciscomani
    1. Defeated former State Rep and State Senator and Environmental Law Professor Kirsten Engel 50.7 – 49.3; by 5,232 Ciscomani had been a senior staffer for outgoing Governor Doug Ducey.
  1. NE 02 Inc Don Bacon
    1. Defeated State Senator Tony Vargas 3-48.9, by 5,856 votes.  Bacon has had several close elections (lost once) for NE 02.  He was the principal spokesman for moderate Republicans in conversations with other Republicans and Democrats during the election of the Speaker.
  1. OR 05 Lori Chavez-DeRemer
    1. Defeated Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an activist who primaried the conservative Democratic Congressman, 51-49, by 7,299 votes. Chavez-DeRemer is a former Happy Valley City Councilor and Mayor who had run unsuccessfully for the Oregon State House of Representatives
  1. MT 01 Ryan Zinke
    1. Defeated former Republican attorney and ex Olympian Monica Tranel 49.6-46.5; by 7,837 votes. A former Member of Congress, he resigned as Trump’s Secretary of Interior after accusations of corruption.
  1. NJ 07 Tom Kean Jr
    1. Defeated incumbent Tom Malinowski, former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human rights, and Labor 51.4-48.6, by 8,691 votes. Tom Kean Jr was the son of a popular Republican governor and a former State Senator.
  1. NY 04 Anthony D’Esposito
    1. Defeated Laura Gillen, formerly the equivalent of mayor of Hempstead, Long Island 51.8-48.2, by 9,751 votes If Hempstead were a city, it would by the country’s 18th D’Esposito is a former New York City detective
  1. CA 41 Inc Ken Calvert
    1. Defeated former federal prosecutor and leader in the LGBTQ community Will Rollins 52.3-47.7, by 11,100 votes. Calvert was first elected to Congress in 1992. He objected to electoral college results and jointed the amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to overturn the election.
  1. VA 02 Jen Kiggans
    1. Defeated incumbent Elaine Luria 51.7-48.3, by 10,109 votes. Kiggans was a State Senator and former Navy Pilot.
  1. CA 45 Inc Michelle Park Steel
    1. Defeated Naval Reserve Lt. Commander and Democratic party activist Jay Chen 52.4-47.6; by 10,494 votes. Steel, daughter of a Korean expatriate who was born in Shanghai, was elected to Congress in 2020 after having been a Republican Party activist and a member of the California Board of Equalization.
  1. WI 03. Derrick Van Orden
    1. Defeated State Senator and former agriculture advisor to the Governor Brad Pfaff 51.9-48.1. Van Orden is a MAGA activist who was at the Capitol on January 6, 2021 by 11,766 votes. Nevertheless, he voted throughout the chaotic Speaker election for Kevin McCarthy
  1. CA 27 Inc Mike Garcia
    1. Defeated former school board chair and state assembly member Christy Smith 53.2 46.8, by 12,732 votes. Incumbent Mike Garcia has stopped short from the most radical positions.  He voted to reject presidential electors, but refused to join the amicus brief to overturn the 2020 election.

Republicans argue that neither the chaotic process by which the Speaker was elected nor the concessions Kevin McCarthy made to get the votes of the extremists will have any effect on the electorate.

We’ll see.  If members of the Gang of 20 are given committee or subcommittee chairs at the expense of the Republican silent majority, will the silent group speak?  Will they revolt on behalf of two or three of them kept from powerful positions they were expecting?  And if they speak up, so what?

We’ll see.  If the rule allowing one Member of majority party to call for replacing the Speaker is never used or if its use is dismissed in a quick and orderly fashion, that will have little impact on the public.

We’ll see what happens with the debt limit.  If there is a government shutdown.  If the US defaults on its debt.  Will the Republicans be blamed?  Will Joe Biden be blamed?

We’ll see.  If the protracted process for adopting a budget leads to …. What?  No budget?  No continuing resolutions?  A government shut down, maybe a second government shut down after the debt limit shut down? Will the Republicans be blamed?  Will Joe Biden be blamed?

Meanwhile: Keep on helping Democrats

Here is what happened on January 10th in Virginia.

 Democrat Aaron Rouse edgesdout a win for Virginia’s 7th State Senate District by 350 votes.  Virginia State Senate Democratic majority increases to 22-18

Democrat Jade Harris loses Virginia’s House District 24 63-37

Democrat Holly Seibold wins Virginia’s House District House District 35 67-33

Virginia House of Delegates is now 52 Republicans, 48 Democrats

  

February 21 and April 4

February 21st

Virginia Fourth Congressional District Special Election on February 21

Jennifer McClellan is running to replace the only current vacancy in the US Congress – Virginia’s Four Congressional District. A state senator representing the 9th Senate district, she is the child of a civil rights activist and a university professor. She ran Terry’s McAuliffe’s transition team when he was elected governor in 2013, is vice chair of the Virginia Democratic Party and of the legislature’s Black Caucus.  She is the favorite to defeat Pastor and Navy veteran Leon Benjamin, Sr.   See Len’s Political Note #527.

New Hampshire Special Election on February 21

House District 8, Rochester Ward 4

Incumbent Chuck Grassie is running because of a rarity.  In November, he and former mayor Republican David Walker tied.  Because New Hampshire’s House of Representatives is so large, you would not expect that a single seat would matter much.  This election in February will matter.  Republicans have a narrow majority – 201-198.  Make it a little narrower (201-199)  by helping to reelect Chuck Grassie.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Multiparty Primary on February 21 followed by a General Election on April 4

Janet Protasiewicz is running for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.  Her win in the February 21st primary and the April 4th General Election would flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court from 4-3 Republican to 4-3 Democrat with enormous implications for issues such as abortion and redistricting.  This is an open seat because a Republican Justice retired.  The election is in the spring rather than November because Wisconsin strives to limit partisanship in judicial elections. See Len’s Political Note #528

Wisconsin Primary on February 21 followed by a Special Election on April 4

Jody Habush Sinykin is running in the special election for Wisconsin’s State Senate District 08.  She is also running to prevent Republicans from having two thirds of the seats in the Wisconsin State Senate.  If the current State Senator for the District were not retiring, Republicans would have 22 of the 33 State Senate seats.  See Len’s Political Note #529