Political Note #520 Democrats who will save the Republic Second Update

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 November 3rd, 2022 Political Note #520 Democrats who will save the Republic Second Update

2022                          General Election

 

KEEPING THE UNITED STATES SENATE DEMOCRATIC

Red = October 31 First Update.

Green = November 3 Second Update

I will do one more updates before the election. 

 A particularly knowledgeable reader wrote to me.  He suggested that I relied too much on 538.  He further suggested that if I rely on 538, I should rely on their Classic Model rather than their DeLuxe Model. The DeLuxe model adds to the traditional mix the opinions of analysts.

Because we need to see trends, in today’s green edition, I will continue to include the Deluxe Model information.  I will, however, organize and make my calculations based on the Classic Model. You will see two greens – This for the Deluxe Model.  And This for the Classic Model. I will continue to do this for today’s report even though 538’s update on the afternoon of November 2 dropped reporting the Classic Model.

 I had hoped that the Republican surge would peak. The Republican surge did pause and even retreated slightly.  Not anymore.  The Republican surge has returned.  Not in every case.  And the Classic Model gives us a slightly different look.  

 I have included 538’s most recent probability projection using the two greens for each candidate and the most recent poll available through that website.  Continue to be cautious about polls – especially now.  Polls are a kind of weapon of the political war. They can encourage the troops and discourage those of your opponent.

 I am still hopeful the Democrats will retain control of the Senate with a 50-50 Senate. The House, however, is a different story. Retaining control of the House will require an unusual level of turnout.

 You can still make a difference.  Last minute money supporting turn out efforts can make a difference in the closest races.

 

THE US SENATE

 Protect Democratic Seats that could be flipped

  1. Nevada             Catherine Cortez Masto
    1. According to 538, she wins 48 48 41 45 out of 100 times.
    2. A media funded B/C rated poll reported on October 29th that Cortez Masto was behind 46-51
  2. Georgia             Raphael Warnock
    1. According to 538, he wins 50 47 45 53 out of 100 times
    2. A media funded B rated Inside Advantage poll reported on Oct 27th that Warnock was behind Walker 45-48
    3. A media funded A+ rated poll reported on October 27th that Warnock was ahead of Walker 47-44
    4. A media funded B/C rated poll reported on October 27th that Warnock was behind Walker 45-46
  3. Arizona Mark Kelly
    1. According to 538, he wins 74 70 66 68 out of 100 times
    2. A Republican oriented Wick poll reported on October 30th that Kelly was leading 49-47.
    3. A Democratic unrated pollster reported on October 30th that Kelly was leading 55-45
    4. An unrated fund with a conservative tradition reported on October 30th that Kelly and Masters were tied 47-47
  4. New Hampshire Maggie Hassan
    1. According to 538, she wins 78 78 72 71 out of 100 times
    2. A University A/B rated poll reported on Oct 29th that Hassan was behind Bolduc 47-48

Flip Republican Seats

  1. Pennsylvania John Fetterman
    1. According to 538, he wins 60 58 55 58 out of 100 times
    2. A provisionally rated B/C poll by Republican pollster co/efficient reported on Oct 28th that Fetterman was behind Oz 45-48.
    3. A media funded B+ rated poll reported on Oct 28th that Fetterman and Oz were tied at 47
  2. Ohio Tim Ryan
    1. According to 538, he wins 23 23 21 31 out of 100 times
    2. Poll by Republican rated Cygnal reported on November 1st that Ryan was behind Vance 44-49.
  3. North Carolina Cheri Beasley
    1. According to 538, she wins 23 23 20 30 out of 100 times
    2. University funded, B/C rated poll reported on Oct 30th that Beasley was behind Budd 43-44
  4. Wisconsin Mandela Barnes
    1. According to 538, he wins 24 24 21 23 out of 100 times
    2. A University funded B/C rated poll reported on Nov 1st  that Barnes was behind 48-50

The numbers have changed. Relying on the Classic Model and not getting our hopes raised by the most recent Beasley poll or dashed by the most recent Fetterman poll, the probability still appears to be a Fetterman win in Pennsylvania and a Cortez Masto loss in Nevada – keeping a 50-50 Senate.

Give money to all eight of these candidates.

You might consider focusing on Fetterman, Cortez Masto, and Warnock.  You certainly could support incumbents Mark Kelly (AZ) and Maggie Hassan (NH) and Democratic candidates Mandel Barnes (WI), Tim Ryan (OH), and Cheri Beasley (NC). If you want to try less probable candidates each of whom seems to have some momentum consider Utah’s independent candidate Evan McMullin* (6 5 4 5 of 100), Florida’s Val Demings (7 6 12), Iowa’s Mike Franken (3 5 4 6 of 100), Indiana’s Tom McDermott (3 3 2 7 of 100)

  • An Independent Party funded B/C rated poll reported on Oct 30th that McMullin was behind 46-47.
  • Republican pollster B+ rated Cygnal reported on October 27th that Franken was behind Grassley 43-54

KEEPING THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MAJORITY DEMOCRATIC

 Here is how I made my calculations with revisions in green.  The Cook Political Report projected 188 Democratic wins and 212 Republican wins. 

 The Cook Political Report now projects 35 toss ups.  Of those 24 23 25 are currently seats held by Democrats; 9 10 10 are seats currently held by Republicans

 An examination of 538’s Classic Model projection for those 35 toss up seats yields the following probabilities

            Democrats retain 21 of the 24 20 of the 23 17 of the 25 seats they hold.

            Republicans retain 8 of the 9 9 of the 10  7 of the 10 seats they hold.

Democrats: 191+20+1= 212

Republicans: 211+3+9= 223

Democrats: 188 + 17 +3 = 208

Republicans: 212 + 8 + 7 = 227

One of Cook’s Likely Rs projects, in 538’s Classic Model as a 62% probability of winning.  Subract one R and add one D. On the other hand, one of Cook’s Lean Ds projects, in 538’a Classic Model as only winning 38% of the time.  We have to leave the projections above as they are.

Based on these numbers, the projected result would be

Republicans. 222 Seats 222 Seats. 227 Seats

Democrats.    213 Seats 213 Seats. 208 Seats

Can the Democrats take 10 or more of the seats Republicans are projected to win and protect all of the seats Democrats are projected to win? 

Here are seats projected as Republican wins (including selecting from toss ups) from which Democrats have to win nine seats.  This includes updated projections and the most recent poll for each contest.

  1. RI 02 Seth Magaziner
    1. According to 538, he wins 57 56 55 47 times out of 100 chances
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on October 24th that State Treasurer Seth Magaziner was tied with former mayor Allan Fung 48-48
  2. PA 17 Chris Deluzio
    1. According to 538, he wins 59 59 56 46 times out of 100 chances.
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on September 20th that Chris Deluzio led Jeremy Shaffer 49-42
  3. NY 19 Josh Riley
    1. According to 538, he wins 57 56 54 45 times out of 100 chances
    2. Media funded A rated poll reported on September 28th that Josh Riley led Marcus Molinaro 46-41
  4. NY 22             Francis Conole
    1. According to 538, he wins 24 25 23 43 times in 100 chances
    2. A Conole funded B/C rated poll reported on October 27th that former Defense Secretary security advisor and Naval Reserve Commander Francis Conole was leading Technology consultant and navy veteran Brandon Williams 45-43
  5. NC 13 Wiley Nickel
    1. According to 538, he wins 24 24 21 41 times out of 100 chances
    2. A Conservative Foundation A rated poll reported on October 24th that State Senator Wiley Nickel led ex football player B Hines 44-43
  6. NY 01 Bridget Fleming
    1. According to 538, she wins 24 24 21 41 times out of 100 chances
    2. There are no recent polls
  7. OR 05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner
    1. According to 538, she wins 47 47 40 37 times out of 100 chances
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on Sept 8th that County Service District Board Member Jamie McLeod-Skinner led former Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer 41-38 for this Open Democratic seat
  8. AK AL Incumbent Mary Peltola
    1. According to 538, she wins 50 50 49 38 times in 100 chances. 538 actually projects Sara Palin as the winner 40 times in 100.
    2. Anonymously funded B/C rated poll reported on Oct 22nd that Native American and Alaskan Regional Official Mary Peltola led Sara Palin among the top 4 49-26 and led Businessman Nick Begich III in a 2 person race 55-44
  9. IA 03 Incumbent Cindy Axne
    1. According to 538, she wins 39 49 38 times out of 100 chances
    2. A B/C rated poll funded by Axne’s opponent Zach Nunn reported on September 25th that Axne was behind 44-46
  10. VA 02 Incumbent Elaine Luria
    1. According to 538, she wins 52 52 50 36 times in 100 chances
    2. University funded A/B rated poll reported on Oct 18th that Incumbent Elaine Luria and State Senator Jen Kiggans were tied 45-45
  11. PA 07 Incumbent Susan Wild
  12. According to 538, she wins 49 49 49 32 times out of 100 chances
  13. Media funded B+ rated poll reported on Oct 14th that Incumbent Wild led Businesswoman Lisa Scheller 47-46
  14. CA 45 Jay Chen
    1. According to 538, he wins 20 20 18 32 times out of 100 chances
    2. There are no recent polls.
  15. OH 01 Greg Landsman
    1. According to 538, he wins 20 19 18 28 times out of 100 chances
    2. A Landsman funded B/C rated poll reported on October 16th that Landsman led the incumbent Steve Chabot 49-46
  16. AZ 02 Incumbent Tom O’Halleran
    1. According to 538, he wins 35 35 34 26 times out of 100 chances
    2. An Eli Crane (the Republican candidate) funded B/C rated poll reported on August 15ththat O’Halleran was behind 44-45
  17. NJ 07 Incumbent Tom Malinowski
    1. According to 538, he wins 29 29 27 19 times out of 100 chances
    2. A Malinowski funded B rated poll reported on September 26th that Incumbent Malinowski and former Assemblyman Thomas Kean, Jr. were tied at 48 each.

 In addition, there are seats projected as Democratic wins (including selections from among the toss ups) which Democrats have to protect.

  1. TX 15 Michelle Vallejo
    1. According to 538, she wins 53 54 52 60 times in 100 chances. This is the District Cook sees as likely Republican while the 538 Classic Model shows her winning 60% of the time. That uncertainty warrants financial support.
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on October 14th that Vallejo and De La Cruz-Hernandez were tied at 45-45
  2. TX 34 Vicente Gonzalez
    1. According to 538, he wins 52 52 49 55 times in 100 chances
    2. Republican oriented organization funded B- poll reported on August 1st that Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez led Incumbent Mayra Flores 47-43

Who to support financially now?

 To retain control of the House, Democrats need to win 10 seats that Republicans are projected to win.  Look at the closest races above – from Magaziner to Luria.  That would be 10 wins.  Can you afford to add more? Look at four more – from Chen to Malinowski.

As for the seats that are projected to be Democratic wins, but need support. In addition to the two listed above, there are:

PA 08            Incumbent Matt Cartwright 51% probability of winning

NV 03            Incumbent Susie Lee 53% probability of winning

CT 05            Incumbent Jahana Hayes 53% probability of winning

NY 17            Incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney 53% probability of winning

IL 17              Eric Sorensen 55% probability of winning

ME 02            Jared Golden 56% probability of winning

KEEPING AS MANY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS AS POSSIBLE AND GAINING WHERE WE CAN.

 Democrats in danger of being flipped

  1. Oregon Tina Kotek
    1. According to 538, she wins 50 50 48 54 out of 100 times
    2. An anonymously funded relatively new pollster Wick reported on October 30th that Hobbs was behind Lake 47-49
  2. Nevada Steve Sisolak
    1. According to 538, he wins 48 46 47 48 out of 100 times
    2. A media funded provisionally B/C rated poll reported
    3. A university funded B/C rated poll reported on October 27th that Steve Sisolak led Joe Lombardo 45-41
  3. Wisconsin Tony Evers
    1. According to 538, he wins 55 55 53 57 out of 100 times
    2. A Republican provisionally rate A/B rated poll reported on October 30th that Tony Evers was behind Tim Michels 49-50
    3. A media funded (Fox News) A rated poll reported on October 30th that Evers was behind Michels 46-47
  4. Kansas Laura Kelly (61)
    1. According to 538, she wins 61 61 65 70 out of 100 times
    2. A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 18th that Incumbent Laura Kelly led Attorney General Derek Schmidt 45-43.

States where Democrats have a chance to flip a Republican governor

  1. Arizona Katie Hobbs
    1. According to 538, she wins 38 39 36 36 out of 100 times
    2. An unrated fund with a conservative tradition reported on Oct 30th that Hobbs was behind 42-53
    3. Republican fund provisionally rated A/B reported on October 30th  that Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was behind former local Fox News anchor Kari Lake 47-49
    4. An A rated poll, media funded (Fox News) reported on October 30th that Katie Hobbs was behind Kari Lake 46-47
  2. Georgia Stacey Abrams
    1. According to 538, she wins 10 9 9 11 out of 100 times
    2. A media funded B rated poll reported on October 27th that Abrams was behind 43-52
    3. A media funded A+ rated poll reported on October 27th that Abrams was behind 45-50
    4. A media funded B/C rated poll reported on October 27th that Abrams was behind 44-51
  3. Oklahoma Joy Hofmeister
    1. According to 538, she wins 9 9 6 9 out of 100 times
    2. A university funded A- rated poll reported on October 28th that Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister was behind Incumbent Republican Governor Kevin Stitt 43-52
    3. An unrated, anonymously funded poll of the “most likely voters,” reported on October 28ththat Hofmeister was leading 48-45

 

DOWNBALLOT RACES WHERE THE REPUBLICAN IS PARTICULARLY ODIOUS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CLOSE RACE

Secretary of State

  1. Arizona Adrian Fontes
    1. To defeat Oath Keeper Mark Finchem
    2. End Citizens United reported that in a late September poll stated that former Clerk of Maricopa County Adrian Fontes led Oath Keeper and State Rep Mark Finchem 46-44
  2. Nevada Cisco Aguilar
    1. To defeat the America First Secretary of State Coalition President Jim Marchant
    2. NBC news reported that an early October poll stated that former Athletic Commissioner Cisco Aguilar was behind the America First Secretary of State Coalition President 41-43

Attorney General

  1. Kansas Chris Mann
    1. To defeat rabid anti-immigrant former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach
    2. A September 12th poll reported that ex cop and anti-drunk driver activist is behind anti-immigrant former Secretary of State Kris Kobach by 2 points.
  2. Texas Rochelle Garza
    1. To defeat indicted, right wing incumbent Ken Paxton
    2. Poll reported on September 26th that Garza was behind Paxton 42-47

STATE SUPREME COURT ELECTIONS WHERE GERRYMANDERING ISSUES ARE MOST VISIBLE

  1. North Carolina Lucy Inman
    1. A media funded poll on October 4th showed Democratic Court of Appeals Judge Lucy Inman behind Republican Court of Appeals Judge Richard Dietz 32-37
  2. North Carolina Sam Ervin IV
    1. A media funded poll on October 4th showed Incumbent Associate Justice of the NC Supreme Court Sam Erving IV behind General Counsel for the North Carolina Courts Trey Allen 37-39.
  3. Ohio Teri Jamison
    1. A media funded poll found that Appeals Court Judge Teri Jamison and Supreme Court Justice Pat Fischer are tied at 40%.
  4. Ohio Marilyn Zayas
    1. A media funded poll found that Appeals Court Judge Marilyn Zayas and Supreme Court Justice Pat DeWine are tied at 40%.

Democrats must win both seats in North Carolina to retain a 4-3 majority.  For Ohio, I have not included the Chief Justice race even though a win by Democrat Jennifer Brunner would have important long term consequences, it will not affect the partisan composition of the Court because the Republican governor appoints the replacement.  A win by either (certainly both would be better) Teri Jamison or Marilyn Zayas for Associate Justice would flip the Ohio Supreme Court from 4-3 Republican to 4-3 Democratic.  If both Democrats are elected, Ohio has a 5-2 Democratic Court.

CONCLUSION

In these Political Notes, I advocate supporting Democrats and try to describe who the Democratic candidates are and say at least something about the Republicans.  Today’s piece is exclusively horse race.

Here is how I suggest you might spend your money

For the US Senate

You could limit yourself to supporting Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto and Raphael Warnock – incumbents in danger of losing their seats.  Plus Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman who retains a slight edge for flipping the Pennsylvania seat.

For the House, because Democrats have to win 10 seats that Republicans are expected to win, you might support the 10 Democrats with the best chance to exceed expectations: (What the hell, make it 12)

  • RI 02 Seth Magaziner
  • PA 17 Chris Deluzio
  • NY 19 Josh Riley
  • NY 22 Francis Conole
  • NC 13 Wiley Nickel
  • NY 01 Bridget Fleming
  • OR 05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner
  • AK AL Inc Mary Peltola
  • IA 03 Inc Cindy Axne
  • VA 02 Inc Elaine Luria
  • PA 07 Inc Susan Wild
  • CA 45 Jay Chen

Trust that the Democrats with a better than 50% probability of winning will actually win.

For Governorships, I suggest investing in four races

            Oregon                      Tina Kotek

            Nevada                     Inc Steve Sisolak

            Wisconsin                 Inc Tony Evers

            Arizona                      Katie Hobbs, who is behind.  The Republican is so distasteful, it warrants spending some resources.

Down ballot races – Attorney General and Secretary of State.  The four candidates described in the text above

            Arizona                      Adrian Fontes for Secretary of State

            Nevada                     Cisco Aguilar for Secretary of State

            Kansas                      Chris Mann for Attorney General

            Texas                        Rochelle Garza for Attorney General

For State Supreme Court

            North Carolina        Lucy Inman and Sam Erving IV

            Ohio                           Teri Jamison and Marilyn Zayas

Spend more for the Senate candidates.  Even so, this is a list of 27 people to donate to.  If you are going to make donations, do it today.  Don’t write a check.  Use the internet – Act Blue or go to their websites.  Make your contributions in time to help these candidates increase turn out.